By
galbeedi
In Somalia , we keep getting false changes that doesn't amount to nothing. Other than the real societal change of the October revolution of 1969, all we got was collapses and false starts. In 2000, C/qasim came from Djibouti to lead the first real government after te collapse of 1991. IT changed nothing. After C.laahi Yusuf took over with help of Ethiopia and African forces, the Islamic Courts fought him and demanded change of leadership and a new government by the courts. Since they were the leading forces against the TFG, everyone , especially the UN , assumed that their take over will lead to the end of hostilities. Yet, things got from bad to worse.
Hassan Sheikh became the new change, yet the biggest difference of 2012 was that he was selected within Somalia territory. After few instituting buildings and the resumption of international flights in Mogadishu airport, thee weren't huge changes. As usual , another man with a shining white horse was celebrated as the biggest change ever happened in Somali in 2017. Just like his predecessor, he moved few things. He raised the profile of the country throughout the world, yet nothing tangible has changed in terms of security. When security in the capital got bad, his answer became blockades and the closing of main boulevards. Since they can't stop terrorism or bombs, their best moves are to create a green zone , ban public cars and trucks , and leave the rest of the city to the insurgents.
Folks these are the constant changes of Somalia that mesmerize us every four years since the Carta government of 2000. A change which similar men changing their shirts from black to blue. The red carpet and jetting to the international capitals by the new leader never changes. The rebuilding of the Somali army never materializes after 18 years. A thirty years change that never changes any thing.
Compare that to the slow moving Ethiopia that doesn't change much.
Throughout history change has been slow moving in Ethiopia. They are top down society and things doesn't change much from the top. If you look back for the history of Ethiopia, change in leadership takes usually twenty, thirty or even more than fourthly. Haile Selassie who was reigning since early twenty century as crown price, became king in 1930, and was deposed by the communist revolution of Mengistu Hailemaruim in 1974, almost 44 years reign. The Derg of Mengistu ruled almost 17 years before his collapse. Them Meles Zenawi ruled from 1991-2012 , another twenty years or more. In these country change doesn't come easily, but when it comes, it is felt like an earth quake. The king is killed, the TPLF takes the whole country or a man with fast horse shows up from the Oromo countryside and like a wind goes from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and the high lands in one day.
IAs usual, 2018 is the year of the change in Ethiopia and nothing will be the same after this.and Ethiopia . Observers will tell you that the kind of changing that taking place in Ethiopia usually take decades or more. First, Four or five years must have been consumed by the usual procured peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia; then borders should have been demarcated by experts after few years of negotiations and confidence building measures which takes time. Second, prisoners are released, they are given time to leave the country and organize, and pass the parliament some liberal measures that reforms the system. Folks, that was the typical Ethiopian change people expected. The thirty year changes of the Ethiopia we have known took place in three months.
Ethiopia in and others are saying these new reforms by the new prime minister supposed to take ten or more years. Many are shocked and believe this train might derail soon, others are enthusiastic for the changes, while others say that this man is miracle man sent for Ethiopia.
Yet, when I asked Somalis who reside in Ethiopia or those who are politically connected, they are not jumping up, while others are consciously optimistic. A friend I talked to told me that changes were happening in Ethiopia since the death of emperor Menelik, yet it never affected positively for the Somalis. It was always like the changes that took place in colonial powers like Britain in the turn of the century while the colonial out posts remain the same.
In order to understand what these changes mean for the people of Somalil Galbeed, let us discuss the latest political moves made by Somalis both in Addis, Dire Dawa, and Asmara. I will divide them in three groups who are the leading forces to replace Cabdi Illey.
The first group is Called Dulmi Diid.
This group is congregating mostly in the Ethiopian capital and major diaspora cities like Minneapolis. Most of these were former allies of Cabdi Illey who in the early years profited from the system. They are largely Jijiga based although there are other people from different regions like Shiniile, Harowo , Godey and from the diaspora. Unlike the ONLF, they do not have any plans or political strategy other than to replace the Illey administration. They are loosely connected with former ministers of the Illey government, while others are fed up of the tribal domination and oppression of the Illey camp. They were making noise in Minneapolis and Addis Abeba. So far no senior official of the Abiy Ahmed government had met them, and the prime minister has ignored them. In my opinion, he considers them a pressure group who want to replace illey through hotel conferences and social media. They are sipping tea in Addis hotels.
While they rare reform minded and present different communities, they do not have any serious political weight or political muscle to change things in the future. They are decent civil society people that must take in the future deliberations of Somali Galbeed, but not the actual change makers. They can demonstrate in the diaspora and demand change , but they do not have future plans for the people of Somali Galbeed.
The New WSLF , Al-Etihad and former members of the Illey coalition.
This group is mainly led by former members of Al Ithihad Al-Islam movement that made a deal with illey in 2008 and 2010. Some of these were former members of the ONLF who joined the Illey system and joined the security and political apparatus of Illey in order to survive from persecution of Somali regional states and Ethiopian forces in Somalia and the Zone. Some of them are good people who made a reasonable choice to became part of the ruling class in Jijiga. THeir leading members tried to influence Illey to distance himself from the TPLF and force him to indirectly join the uprising in Ethiopia.
The fact is that they were there with Illey until to the end. Now they are trying to join the bandwagon of change and create a new WSLF that has different members across the Somali clan landscape. The biggest problem with these people is that they are " Maxakamado" type players who are not deeply principled. Like their comrades in Mogadishu , they may just give up the Somali shop to Ethiopia in order to get the power. Also, they do not have political manifesto or future plans for the region.
The ONLF in Asmara and around the world.
The ONLF had been crushed both by Cabdi Illey, Al-Shabaab faction controlled by Ethiopia, the Somali regional states and the TPLF. Even the Farmaajo government joined the crowd to decimate them, yet as of today, they are the only credible organization that has the strategy, goals and credibility to participate the future of Somali Galbeed.Unlike others, they have a freedom manifesto for the region.
Unlike others, they are not interested to replace Cabdi Illey and be another Somali entity that is totally subservient to the Addis power. They want seriously to negotiate the future of the region and its freedom. No one knows if that leads to full autonomy, future referendum or independence. At the same , for the ONLF to be seen as the most prominent Somali freedom movement, it must take certain political and nominal reforms.
First, The ONLF must understand that the current structure of the organization must change and show transparency, Somali hood and representation of Somali Galbeed people. Most of all, they must get rid of the so called, Dalka Ogaadeniya" or any connotation with tribal names. We do not buy at all the so called name by the colonials. Somali regional government is not a bad name. It keeps the Somali identity in Ethiopia.
Second, It must convene a new inclusive grand conference to consult among the stake holders, and Somalis in the region. A political strategy must be prepared that must lead either independence, Future time frame for referendum vote or political and economic autonomy that is different than other regions.
They must also encourage other Somali groups who are vying for power to , especially those from the diaspora, to support their agenda and demonstrate like the Oromo to force a real change.
Further more, they must avoid quick fixes or premature take over of the regional government without rigorous debate among the communities and stake holders.
In conclusion, this is the last opening of Ethiopia until probably 2030, so we must be prepared to take advantage as a Somali community, and we must not the victims of old colonial agenda that marginalizes Somalis in the 21st century.
At the moment, other the ONLF, I do not see any other Somali group that could lead to a real change in Somali Galbeed.
