Egypt new warning Ethiopia over Nile River dam

[Old_Observer]

CAIRO – Egypt’s foreign minister has delivered a warning to Ethiopia over a dam it is building on a Nile River tributary.

Sameh Shoukry says in TV comments aired Thursday that all parties “should know that Egypt will not accept the status quo … and continues to defend the interests of its people regarding the Nile by several means.”

He did not elaborate.

 

Earlier in April, the foreign ministers of Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia met in Khartoum but talks ended with no deal on the lingering dispute of access to the Nile’s waters. Egypt has called for another meeting in Cairo.

Egypt is alarmed the so-called Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is completing will drastically impact its share of the Nile’s waters.

Ethiopia and Sudan are expected to benefit from the construction. AP

[Old_Observer]

Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia Militarily:

Directly Nil

Through Sudan Nil

Through Eritrea Next to Nil

Through Djibouti Nil

Through Somaliland and Somalia Nil

Through Kenya Next to Nil

Through South Sudan Next to Nil

Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia economically:

Close the Suez for Ethiopian ships Minimum effect Most Ethiopian ships work in East and some around Europe

Close Ethiopian airlines transit and destination Cairo.. Telaviv and Turkey takes rest

Egypt stop investors : Some can even take Ethiopian citizenship and move and not big to start with

Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia through destabilization:

Oromo very small chance and being reduced progressively

Amhara very big chance for egypt, but Amhara do not have capacity to serve Egypt, only wish and some attempt

The rest are not interested or downright unapproachable by Egypt

 

Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia diplomatically:

Africa almost Nil

Asia almost Nil

Europe almost Nil

Americas not big enough to hurt Ethiopia

Middle East 50/50

 

 

 

 

 

[Tallaabo]

Actually Egypt can cause significant financial harm to Ethiopian Airlines by closing its airspace to the airline. Almost all the Ethiopian Airline flights to Europe go through Egypt. I know it because I use Ethiopian Airlines regularly and have also used Lufthansa to travel from Frankfurt to Addis and all flights have gone through Egypt. If Egypt closes its airspace to Ethiopian Airlines, the airline can bypass Egypt east or west with significant added cost to the flight operations. If Egypt persuades its Arab neighbours to the west to follow suit, then the only route open for it would be Israel, although the geography of that location is quite complex with Egypt's Suez region and Saudi Arabia almost enclosing that narrow opening. Qatar Airways is doing this now after the blockade imposed on it by the Saudi led coalition but the government of Qatar has deep pockets and can prop up its company. However this is not the case with the Ethiopian airlines company. It has to make profit to stay in business and that profit depends on customers like me buying its tickets to fly home. To make profit, the airline has to offset the additional operating costs incurred if Egypt closes its airspace by passing on the cost to the customers. That means more expensive tickets which will make Ethiopian Airlines less competitive compared to its rivals. People like me will have to choose between a more expensive route home through Addis or a cheaper one through Dubai which is not a good prospect for Ethiopian Airlines. I hope this issue is resolved peacefully for everyone's sake. 

[Old_Observer]

8 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

I hope this issue is resolved peacefully for everyone's sake. 

I hope everyone hopes this is solved peacefully too. The only solution is for Egypt to:

Accept that Ethiopia is not party to any agreements the British Empire signed on behaf of its colonies and its preotectorate Egypt for the cotton farms of the British empire.

Accept that Egypt Sudan agreement that was done by coup de estat in Sudan does not concern Ethiopia and cannot abide by it.

Accept that a dam is not reducing water all the time, only when filling it and that can be made by agreed schedule

Accept that Egypt cannot dictate anything to Ethiopia or Sudan has to negotiate

That is the only way fair way and longer in to the future guaranteed way to use the water peacefully.

[Old_Observer]

8 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

Actually Egypt can cause significant financial harm to Ethiopian Airlines by closing its airspace to the airline. Almost all the Ethiopian Airline flights to Europe go through Egypt.

Yes, but that is small price to pay to establish a precedence and assert yourself. When you are prepared to pay dear life to defend your right, loosing profits is tolerable. This is also always entered into the calculus. Its even known which countries can and will do what even if this thing goes to war.

[Ifiye]

Egyptians are capable of carrying out preemtive surgical strikes on the GERD.  Anyone suggesting Ethiopians can withstand an Egyptian asualt is daydreaming.  But I doubt these two American client states will go to war over the Nile anytime soon.  

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Ifiye said:

Anyone suggesting Ethiopians can withstand an Egyptian asualt is daydreaming.

What if its you who is day dreaming? Have you ever looked the other way?

Its very easy to count a million man Egyptian armed forces to just about 150,000 Ethiopian armed forces or an Egypt that defeated Israel lol.

You must be one of those people that think that the Egyptians did not do anything to GERD because they are so friendly, so fair, so humaine so compassionate ...

[Tillamook]

15 hours ago, Ifiye said:

Egyptians are capable of carrying out preemtive surgical strikes on the GERD.  Anyone suggesting Ethiopians can withstand an Egyptian asualt is daydreaming.  But I doubt these two American client states will go to war over the Nile anytime soon.  

I agree.

This whole affair is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot; regardless of all the tough talk between these two governments, neither Sisi nor the Tigray elites have the wherewithal for a direct military confrontation over GERD.

Also don't forget that for the Tigray elites, the construction of GERD was nothing more than a get-rich-quick moonshot project whereby they stole millions from poor Ethiopians. All they care about is the fattening of their foreign bank accounts and would never risk a head on collision with the Eygptians and their allies by messing with Nile river waters.

[Old_Observer]

2 hours ago, Tillamook said:

I agree.

Are you agreeing to the capability of Egypt to destroy Ethiopia. That would be shocking if it happens.

I don't know how much Arab influence you have, but from my experience Arabs are known for this kind of culture.

Maybe you do not know, but the only peoples in Ethiopia that fought Egypt happen to be the Tigreans (Agew, Afar and 4 peoples now in Tigray kilil, Eritreans) through the centuries, whether Egypt on its own or as protectorate and colony of different empires.

[Tillamook]

6 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

Are you agreeing to the capability of Egypt to destroy Ethiopia. That would be shocking if it happens.

I don't know how much Arab influence you have, but from my experience Arabs are known for this kind of culture.

Maybe you do not know, but the only peoples in Ethiopia that fought Egypt happen to be the Tigreans (Agew, Afar and 4 peoples now in Tigray kilil, Eritreans) through the centuries, whether Egypt on its own or as protectorate and colony of different empires.

I don't know how your folklore bed time stories have anything to do with current state of affairs vis-à-vis Egpyt and Ethiopia.

[Old_Observer]

4 hours ago, Tillamook said:

I don't know how your folklore bed time stories have anything to do with current state of affairs vis-à-vis Egpyt and Ethiopia.

There is something called reality. Past or present. Egypt has never defeated any Ethiopian from skirmishes to big battles to wars. That is the folklore those are the facts.

The leaked tape from Mohamed Mursi's national security meeting is proof positive. They discussed all possiblities and at the end the conclusion was that Egypt can only fight Ethiopia from with in finding an ally clan or neighbouring country. Even that is now downing on Egypt that will not bring desired results.

That is the folklore and that is the fact. Both Eritrea and Sudan has told the Egyptians military option is closed no way.

[Old_Observer]

The Egyptians just found out their worst nightmare. The Egyptians had thought they have partly succeeded in having chaos in Ethiopia and the Oromo were their best chance, but the Tigray have proven to be more resiliant. The Amhara could not influence things in favour of Egypt to kick out Tigray, who Egypt consideres an enemy,  from influence.

GERD will continue on schedule Ethiopian schedule. This has been confirmed by the new prime minister. Sudan is quite pleased with the results.

The Egyptians have now started saying "we have been misunderstood, I did not threat militarily, we will never use force (as if they can) yada yada yada.