Guardian: What hope is there that Farmajo’s administration can govern Somalia when it cannot even govern itself

[Deeq A.]

In shambles: Somali women celebrate the election of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed in 2017 but their joy is proving to be premature. (Feisal Omar, Reuters)

Change always breeds optimism and it was no different when Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed was elected as president of Somalia in February last year. Expectations were sky-high as the new president — universally known by his nickname, Farmajo — took office.

Farmajo himself did little to temper these hopes. “This is the beginning of the era of unity, the democracy of Somalia and the beginning of the fight against corruption,” he said in his inauguration speech.

But if that was the beginning of the era of unity, then it ended in dramatic fashion earlier this month. In shambolic, humiliating scenes in Parliament, soldiers loyal to the president squared off against soldiers loyal to parliamentary speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari, as Jawari fought to survive a no-confidence motion. A crisis was only averted by the intervention of peacekeepers from the African Union Mission in Somalia. Under immense domestic and international pressure, Jawari has now resigned but the ugly spat left the limitations of the federal government of Somalia brutally exposed.

“This whole episode has been completely disheartening because it reveals the dysfunction and the pettiness of Somali politicians. The country has so many problems that require attention and wisdom and a sense of responsibility to address, but Somali politicians appear to spend most of their time squabbling amongst each other and jockeying for position,” said Joshua Meservey, a senior policy analyst on Africa and the Middle East at the Heritage Foundation.

A port in a storm

At the root of the dispute between the president and the speaker is a deal to run the port of Berbera, located in the autonomous Republic of Somaliland. Although legally part of Somalia, and therefore under the federal government’s writ, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto independent state for more than two decades — a state that by any measure is more peaceful, prosperous and democratic than Somalia proper.

Its deal with the Emirati company DP World, which has businesses in marine and inland terminals, maritime services, logistics and other services, reasserts Somaliland’s independence, and includes a $442-million pledge to develop the territory’s infrastructure. In addition, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is building a military base in Berbera, and talks are ongoing with Russia for a base next door.

Support from the UAE and Russia would greatly strengthen Somaliland’s claim to independence.

The Somali federal government has bitterly condemned the port deal and the building of the base, and Jawari tried to pass legislation invalidating the DP World contract. But he did so without getting input from the president and Farmajo did not take kindly to the slight.

Caught in the middle

Another dynamic at play is the ongoing diplomatic dispute in the Gulf between Qatar on the one side and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other. Saudi and the UAE lobbied hard for Somalia’s support but the federal government chose to remain neutral, nervous of alienating Qatar or Turkey, a major investor in Somalia, which sympathises with the Qatari position.

“Somalia was caught between a few powerful countries with huge influence inside the country,” said Meservey. “That caused a cascade of problems for Somalia. The Emiratis appear to be very involved in resisting Farmajo’s agenda in Somalia. They are irritated, as are the Saudis, that Somalia didn’t go along with the embargo and he wasn’t their preferred candidate to win the electoral process. Now the Emiratis are interacting bilaterally with federal states … which brings us back to Somaliland.”

As well as this perceived threat to Somalia’s sovereignty, the Gulf crisis is affecting domestic politics. On Monday, a plane with $9.6-million in cash was seized on the runway in Mogadishu. It had just flown in from Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE.

The Emiratis say the money was earmarked for humanitarian efforts but several analysts speculated that the cash was intended to pay off local politicians, sowing further divisions in an already fractured government.

Even on its best days, the federal government has little control over the country.

Much power is devolved to semi-autonomous states, large swaths of territory are still ruled by the Islamist group al-Shabab and officials are almost entirely reliant on AU peacekeepers to provide security.

These are, unequivocally, not the government’s best days, which raises the question: What hope is there that Farmajo’s administration can govern Somalia when it cannot even govern itself? 

[Holac]

Indeed it was a circus. 

[Old_Observer]

I am afraid, this government will be no different to the ones previous.

 Same tactics used. No issue mentioned, just getting rid of speaker. If the PM had clearly shown that Jawari was preventing an issue from going forward, now the people would ask OK you got rid of Jawari, and we expect you to work on the issue.

That is why the PM raised so many trivial issues, but not a single agenda that is critical for the country.

Its like replacing one corrupt with another and having your turn at the till, but not changing the system to prevent the next corrupt.

[maakhiri1]

1 hour ago, Old_Observer said:

I am afraid, this government will be no different to the ones previous.

 Same tactics used. No issue mentioned, just getting rid of speaker. If the PM had clearly shown that Jawari was preventing an issue from going forward, now the people would ask OK you got rid of Jawari, and we expect you to work on the issue.

That is why the PM raised so many trivial issues, but not a single agenda that is critical for the country.

Its like replacing one corrupt with another and having your turn at the till, but not changing the system to prevent the next corrupt.

Oo, the future is bright and despite all the shortcomings things are moving right direction.

[Old_Observer]

I hope you are right and happens that way.

Its very frastraing and sometimes humiliating to see parliamentarians, governments moving chairs and not a single issue is publicly argued.

I was hoping both the president and PM come out and accuse Mr. Jawari of delaying and holding up constitutional file. The next day after he departs all Somalis regardless of countries or regions would expect the president and PM to immediately start the consitutional file.

That would be acceptable to everybody and if they show in practice to work one can accept the removal of the speaker for the good of the country's agenda.

 

I hope you are correct and changes and moving forward comes tomorrow.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Correction: This article is by Mail and Guardian from Koonfur Afrika, not the famous Guardian published in UK.

Having said that, also this same author, Simon Allison, used to write flattering articles about secessionists. So for all we know he could be another paid lobbyist paid by hardcore secessionists, same way with that Cambodian-American neocon Peter J. Pham and that guy from the-called Soomaaliya Monitoring Group.

[galbeedi]

I do not need a foreign stooge to interpret for me the events in Somalia.

I see some good signs but only time will tell.

OO and company from Jigjiga are delighted to see these useless articles or any weaknesses of the state. 

[Old_Observer]

8 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

OO and company from Jigjiga are delighted to see these useless articles or any weaknesses of the state. 

galbeedi,

This is unexpected mistaken view from you. Totally unexpected. Maybe you were tired or you may have wanted to post this on another thread.

The image of the Somali is a totality of every territory, every country where the Somali has activity and impact.

From so much "hate" you have on Illey, which I hope is envy which is positive, you totally missed to recognize that in these 2 years, the contribution of the kilil people to the image of the Somali.

The image of the Somali for good or bad is galbeedi in Canada, Minister and board of education, city council members across Canada + UK + USA+ Australia+ Djibouti+Somaliland+Mogadishu+NFD+ of course the best Somali image in the world Kilil.

The kilil people cannot participate in Mogadishu, but its humiliating when you see time after time so much resource and opportunity wasted over trivialities in Mogadishu. It subtracts from the Somali people's success stories and image instead of adding to the positive success stories from everywhere.

 

Illey unlike you is very proud when any Somali succeeds anywhere. Of course his primary responsibility as leader of 6-7 million Somalis is the kilil and is an Ethiopian citizen.

 

[Yunis]

Over all trajectory of the SFG's achievements things are definitely moving in the right direction despite errors and internal/external forces bent on ensuring Somalia never gets on its feet.

[Peace Action]

8 hours ago, Yunis said:

Over all trajectory of the SFG's achievements things are definitely moving in the right direction despite errors and internal/external forces bent on ensuring Somalia never gets on its feet.

Agreed. Don't listen to OO waa sirdoon Tigrey ah. When he says things are getting worse in Somalia, assume the opposite. Ethiopia itself after Zinawi is unable to manage the divide and control system setup by late Zinawi. 

[Old_Observer]

10 hours ago, Peace Action said:

Agreed. Don't listen to OO waa sirdoon Tigrey ah. When he says things are getting worse in Somalia, assume the opposite. Ethiopia itself after Zinawi is unable to manage the divide and control system setup by late Zinawi. 

Peace Action,

What if I said the opposite of what I mean? What you are suggesting Yunis to follow is bad formula. Why not evaluate each issue on its merits or demerit?

Ethiopians were divided, are so many Ethnics long before Zenawi was born. What Zenawi did was make them live under one government, one territory, one country which was not possible to do by his opponents.

If Zenawi (his colleagues) had not achieved this in 1991, the Amhara had no force, wisdom or any influence to keep the different nationalities that wanted out of the system/empire.

Divide and rule is an empty high sounding phrase here.