History : SOMALIA VS ETHIOPIA and the horn of AFRICA

[maakhiri1]

 

[Old_Observer]

Both of today's countries Ethiopia and Somalia were formed in ways and shapes that perfectly serve the Europeans and few local chiefs at the time.

The unfortunate thing is the local chief in Ethiopia came from a kingdom that was never sea faring people, there fore the first thing he gave up so easily and happily was the sea shores.

In Somalia was quite the opposite. Somalia has now sea shore that can be enough for 20 countries, but still not focused on what is the next region to the sea. It is easy to find regions that are 100km away from the sea not taken as best reserve, center, backbone for the sea. From Kenya to Djibouti who ever is on the sea shore dealing with Europeans with no consideration of what hapens to the nomad in centre or away from sea that need to be agricultural, industrial, social and cultural base of the whole entity.

Maybe another shake of the cards is in order or some solution to remake both countries.

Ethiopians have been made to think Somalia is some very far, totally different from Ethiopia and an enemy (until recent past)

The same but opposite was true in Somalia too.

Both countries will fracture. How and when is of course big question.

Ethiopia will change soon, very soon with regime change in Eritrea. That regime change will be influenced by Afar and Tigray kilils in Ethiopia and Eastern region of Sudan. The signs are visible, which means a lot of underground work has been done already. Some high military and civilian persons from Eritrea are showing signs that help will be needed at end of dictatorship.

 

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

9 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

Both of today's countries Ethiopia and Somalia were formed in ways and shapes that perfectly serve the Europeans and few local chiefs at the time.

The unfortunate thing is the local chief in Ethiopia came from a kingdom that was never sea faring people, there fore the first thing he gave up so easily and happily was the sea shores.

In Somalia was quite the opposite. Somalia has now sea shore that can be enough for 20 countries, but still not focused on what is the next region to the sea. It is easy to find regions that are 100km away from the sea not taken as best reserve, center, backbone for the sea. From Kenya to Djibouti who ever is on the sea shore dealing with Europeans with no consideration of what hapens to the nomad in centre or away from sea that need to be agricultural, industrial, social and cultural base of the whole entity.

Maybe another shake of the cards is in order or some solution to remake both countries.

Ethiopians have been made to think Somalia is some very far, totally different from Ethiopia and an enemy (until recent past)

The same but opposite was true in Somalia too.

Both countries will fracture. How and when is of course big question.

Ethiopia will change soon, very soon with regime change in Eritrea. That regime change will be influenced by Afar and Tigray kilils in Ethiopia and Eastern region of Sudan. The signs are visible, which means a lot of underground work has been done already. Some high military and civilian persons from Eritrea are showing signs that help will be needed at end of dictatorship.

 

 

 

So, you are saying Greater Tigray is being revived now that TPLF might eventually lose power.

 

[Old_Observer]

37 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

So, you are saying Greater Tigray is being revived now that TPLF might eventually lose power.

 

Has nothing to do with Tigray. Rest assured if the northern Ethiopians decide to go for sea, will not be even close to Somalia.

Che,

Aren't you taking a break from Tigray this Tigray that? Power has been handed to an Oromo, some QERO (Shabab) leaders interviewed by VOA stated couldn't be happier.

My friend move to next issue. That was yesterday.

Or are you again trying to resuscitate the Tigray case by Amhara who happen to think that Tigray outplayed them by taking Oromo out of the "supposed" alliance?

You mean Tigray to kick out others or separate. That is 40 year old discussion. If a society moves in a direction for 40 years that is almost 2 generations give it up.

 

BTW what is your contribution or participation in the topic. Tigray was Abyssinia. Ethiopia killed Abyssinia. Ethiopia swallowed what it could, sold what can get it favour of Europeans and abondoned what it was afraid cannot be assimilated.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Come down Observer,

You said both Ethiopia and Somalia will fracture, I assume that's will be to the benefit to Tigray which would need access to the sea and farmlands. I don't see Tigray separating from Ethiopia unless they have something better line up.

And how do see Ethiopia fracturing in case it does?

[Duufaan]

38 minutes ago, Ducale said:

 

 

 

Abandoned somalia somaliland.  

 

2

That is the case. The Darwish movement played a big role this time and saved Somalia. After the death of Sayid Mohamed Abdala hasan in 1921, there were a big gap before the next movement, the SYL. The Europian  colonial and Ethiopia took advantage Somali this period of time. 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Ducale said:

Swallowed Kililka.

Sold djibouti.

Abandoned somalia somaliland.  

Is that what meant?

Swallowed Kilil yes and also lot in West and south that was rich in coffee, manpower as well

Sold Eritrea and Djibouti for exchanged money, guns and other gifts

Abondoned not on east side, but west side. Most is now on East Sudan provinces. There was and still is most strategic of towns called Kassala. It was a province of Axum until Menelik abondoned it afraid of Egyptians and later Europeans. When the British and Italians found out how startegic it is, they fought over it.

 

[Old_Observer]

3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

I assume that's will be to the benefit to Tigray which would need access to the sea and farmlands. I don't see Tigray separating from Ethiopia unless they have something better line up.

I guess you read too much Amhara shenanigan. FYI they do say many things that they themselves do not believe. If I were you would take them with some grain of salt.

Tigray is more smarter than you think. Access to the sea is not a priority and no one spends their energy or time on something that is not priority.

If you are concerned about Eritrea, which I see from some of your comments, Eritrea is good for herself. They will do it themselves good or bad. Tigray will not need to spend time or energy on that.

 

Again what is your contribution to the topic other than Tigray. I know for good or bad Tigray has been and still is topic in East Africa, but more so in Ethiopia and Somalia than say Sudan, where Tigray has more interaction.

[Old_Observer]

One advantage the Tigray have to others is no enemy both historical or modern day money bought  societies immediate neighbor. Eritrea better be good for herself and continue the statusquo no war.

They have Ethnics in Tigray kilil, but except for one, the Kunama everyone else is blood kin regardless of religion or language. About half of Amhara kilil is also Tigray friendly historically and at this time.

No religious problem even in past 100 years where Moslems were second class in Ethiopia. King Haileslassie for a single minute even by mistake never said Ethiopian Moslems. Was always Moslems in Ethiopia like refugee or subjugated or brought for work. Where as in Tigray it was always Moslem Tigreans or Tigrean Moslems. You can observe in todays Ethiopia the participation of Moslems in this government was just vertical just took off.

They also happen to have longest, sedentary, organized with laws and rules based, written past. Some times that is hindrance, but mostly is an asset.

 

Abiy Ahmed can do a lot of changes positive, but if he is shakey on the following even a coup and next crisis is possible:

1. GERD and Egypt

2. Sudan

3. Djibouti and China (I am afraid this may be in Americas, UAE, Saudi and back home HOA Somaliland - to do list for him)

As for Somalia, if Ethioia does what is best interest of kilil economic, security, development..that is satisfactory.

[Dahireeto]

OO, why is the GERD so important to Tigray? Isn't located in Amhara land?

 

[Old_Observer]

2 hours ago, Dahireeto said:

OO, why is the GERD so important to Tigray? Isn't located in Amhara land?

 

It is located in Benishangul Gumuz not in Amhara.

Dahireeto,

Not only important, but critical.

Can you imagine what a 6.5GW will mean to Ethiopia. There is a lot of industries waiting on desks for power. One cannot build a country without local steel industry. Turkey and Russia are willing to give the whole technology and industrial know how, but you need reliable power.

It will also increase the connection and inerdependence between Sudan, Kenya, Djibuti to Ethiopia.

Last but not least there is deep and very long "bad blood" with Egypt. The Amhara are chicken with Egypt so scared of Egypt. The only people fought Egypt through millenia and centuries were the Afar Agew Tigray. The Egyptians tried everything in 27 years non stop, but were defeated every step they took. Diplomatically are now out of East Africa.