Could the cold war in East Africa remain that or will go to hot war

[galbeedi]

OO,

I am nor in a rush. The Ethiopian collapse will come. and I am willing to wait. I hope my people will be in power in Somalia when that collapse comes. The Oromo wave will come for good or bad.

Somali president is four years and everyone knows this president will finish his term regardless of the Mogadishu games. Kenya is democratic and stable, Uganda 's dictatorship is for life, Djibouti will be fine. Sudan is stable .

  The only place where both regime change and regime collapse is expected is Ethiopia, so let us discuss the best and worst scenarios of the old empire.

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

Good idea, but lets exchange first what we know about Ethiopia:

1. Only Afar and Somali kilil are closest to single Ethnic kilils, it makes it easier to speak as 1 unit no risk of spliting in these kilils. Somali or Afar are not at risk of spliting by clans or tribes inside them. Will stay together.

2. Tigray (4) and Benshangul Gumuz (3) are multi Ethnic, but the risk of spliting is very low so these two also can be dealt with as units

3. Amhara (5) is multi Ethnic and the risk of spliting is high depending on how deep problems are. Actually one province (zone) is Oromo Zone inside Amhara kilil.

4. Oromia is generally speaking one Ethnic, but has about 6 million Amara, 1.5 million Gurage and the Oromo itself is not cohesive enough has never lived in one administration or language until 20 years ago You need 2 or more generations to create cohesiveness that can withstand trouble times. Lets here yours on this.

5. South has more than 50 Ethnic, but believe it or not can stay together with the exception of Gurage that may want to be with Amhara ethnic.

6. Gambella can stay together and weather the storm. There is a big number of Amhara and Tigray as well.

7. Poor Hareri would prefer the Somali, but are sarounded by Oromo, so no choice. Their normal choice would have been Somali, Afar, Tigray in that order.

8. No big religious problem, if there is at all will be in Oromo, the rest are minimal to none with religious problems

 

Remember: There is no society in the world that is expected to be one unit more than the Somali. One faith, one Ethnic, one language (generally speaking can understand each other from all parts even with dialects). But the fact is the unexpected. So never go by the general talk that the Tigray or Oromo or Amhara are one. No assumptions or expectations to be one. In their case some are even multi-ethnic

Then we can see the options if we have fairly common understanding on current conditions.

 

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

Something will happen to Eritrea very soon, unless he makes 180 degree change of direction.

Internally he is in trouble with Jeberti (who in a twisted way are called Tigrayans (Ethiopian) which they are origined but have been in Eritrea for long time.

Externally has no friends from immediate neighbors except Saudi Arabia.

 

The good thing is safety and security of Djibouti is now better by many degrees.