What if Djibouti, DP World reconcile and support Berbera deal

[Old_Observer]

DO you know that is real possibility?

Djibouti agrees to Berbera as long as Berbera does not take more than 20% of Ethiopia's business from Djibouti

Somaliland agrees will not have free trade zone, and if Somaliland is so interested will have to give up to 50% share in this free trade zone to Djibouti corporation

Somaliland agrees not to start her own shipping lines for next 10 years and instead take shares in both Ethiopian and Djibouti shipping lines

UAE will not change its mind and develop port of Assab for commercial purposes

UAE will not develop Bassaso for Ethiopian business, but only for Somalia

 

I am not party or representative to any of the above entities, I am too small of a man, but some British law firm is working on such a deal which of course means all these corporations will be clients of this firm and related insurance companies next.

[Old_Observer]

8 minutes ago, Amigos said:

Possibility of Djibouti and UAE reconciling is slim to none. DP World was already offering to sell its shares in the Doraleh container terminal to the government of Djibouti, but it was Djibouti who refused to go ahead with the sale before DP World accepts the changes in contract that Djibouti demanded.

 

The Berbera genie is out of the bottle, there is no going back  

Never say never

The disagreement is:

Djibouti wanted to buy it back but at a lower price, so to do this Djibouti brought chinese and built other ports and Djibouti sent hint that DP world agreement will not be renewed. This should drive the price really low so even our Oodeweyne can afford to buy it.

DP world knew and wanted to force Djibouti to buy it when the price is really high.

That is the bottom line of the fighting and I am sure an English lawyer can find a way around this to tell DP cut your losses. Your losses in Djibouti will only go up.

 

[Old_Observer]

6 minutes ago, Oodweyne said:

 

No, I am afraid none of this is feasible. Why? there is a real bad-blood between the DP World and the local dictator of Djibouti. Second, the Somaliland will not agree on no construction of a Free Zone in Berberra at the behest of the Djibouti.

Thirdly, when Djibouti was "silent" about its real face towards Somaliland, or the "feeling" they genuinely harbor for us, they could have been some folks within Somalialnd who in turn would have a "soft spot" for them. And that would have meant that some Somalilanders would have entertained about the idea of "sharing" any decent prosperity with Djibouti as something that is even "honorable".

But now since that dictator of Djibouti has truly and openly exposed himself of what he actually think of us, particularly in-terms of any development for Somaliland in general or berberra in particular, actually means there is no way in hell that any Somalilanders will be willing to "share" any profit from any economical free Zone in Berberra with the likes of Djibouti's corporations.

Hence that is also out of the window (as it were). So, in a short, I don't think these are feasible at all. But we shall see. 

I am sure Somaliland or Oodweyne will not act out of anger or spite. 

You can also demand your pound of flesh. (DP for the most part is the British company they bought some years back for 7 billion dollars). Its a win win for both of you.

 

[Old_Observer]

5 minutes ago, Oodweyne said:

This is the issue really. Everything else is so much of a "spit-warmed-verbal-nonsense" so said it indulgently to fob off some gullible folks. And whatever you may think of us, we are not gullible to say the least. 

Be it far from me to think that way. Of that you can rest assured.

But Gheuelleh can come to conclusion to accomodate your national desire too. He has a lot of frastrations in Mogadishu. UAE is also more cemented in Mogadishu than many other places.

He is a practical man. He will ask SFG "what can you do for me right now"? Forget pronounceents and facebooks what real action can you do right now for me, time is running out.

His stand will depend on that. He knows DP will spend any money to just teach a lesson to all future Gheullehs.

 

[galbeedi]

Well, well. Here we have the Tigre stooge trying to manage the affairs of the Somali enclaves. He even want to bring a firm to serve every thing Ethiopia.

 

Oo, let me tell you something, the Somali ports do not revolve around Ethiopia. Somali main ports of Mogadishu, Kismayo and Berbera were busy in the eighties shipping millions of livestock, banana and fruits around the globe without Ethiopia.

Somalia could easily export 10 million  head of live cattle, sheep and camel, and it could process meat and export to China and middle east. In KIsmaayo, Somalia could easily ship  fruits like banana, Mango  and even grains, while Berbera and Boosaaso could ship millions of live livestock.

Furthermore,  these ports including Boosaaso could be developed by Somali businessmen who have the money to invest. All they need is a government and public that understands and supports these investments. Heck, even Dahabshill , who is worth $700 million dollars can develop Berbera if the local tribes agree his investment instead of DP world. 

 

Ethiopia is not Tigray, Amhara or Addis region only. Millions people in the Oromo zone and the Somali Kilil do not have access for significant trade. 5 million Somalis in zone are occupied and denied movements to grow and do business with the neighboring Somalis including Somaliland. Somaliland does not need to pay  any body  for market access. What we are talking is a Tigre monopoly of business and trade in Ethiopia. No one can set up shipping lines or basic trade routes without them. It is not the government which does the trading and the business transactions, it is the people freely choosing which ever port that is closer or best managed. If freedom comes to Ethiopia, millions will come to Berbera for trade and shipping companies. 

 

In 2011, when I went to Djibouti , my guide who was a high government official who took me to Dooraale Oil terminal and the container port which was  built as a state of  art . After, we went to the outside  of the city , and I saw hundreds of transit tracks from Ethiopia waiting 10 km from the port to load. People told me that these  shipping companies and 90% of the transiting trucks belonged to the wife of Meles Zenawi and high officials from the Djibouti government.

 

THis is not just Ethiopian goods transiting through Djibouti , but Wayaane business and shipping monopoly that is enriching themselves  only. It is Wayaane shipping monopoly that is starving everyone else. If they catch one single bag of goods that enters Ethiopia, they literally burn at that stop since it was imported by other than the WAyaane and their allies.

 

Berbera is the closest port to the millions of Somalis in the zone and the Oromo regions adjacent to the Somali kilil. 

 

Djibouti is scared of competition for their business and trade with Ethiopia. Somaliland have to increase its trade with Ethiopia as much as possible. Why would someone in Jijiga, Awbare, Godey or Dambal has to go to 1000km to Djibouti while they could get a third of that distance from Berbera. The problem is,  in Somaliland,  we have a ruling tribe that does not understand the value to  increasing the capacity of trade and ports. Berbera could be a huge container port in the region, and you can develop Lughaya, Zaylac, Maydh and others to target Ethiopia and the regions bordering for small trade " Bagaash" trades. Sooner or later ports will compete and people will choose the shortest route and the best service. 

 

The problem is tribes do not see beyond their own tribal interest. Both Djibouti and the Jeegaan are even afraid of developing Zaylac. Go figure.

 

As Oodweyne said few weeks ago , the move from Djibouti is just business, yet the Jeegaan have to tell everyone that all is well , despite the move by Gheelle.. The Jeegaan in laws of Djibouti have to make a tough decision. They are either have to serve the interest of their people or keep their personal and business interest with the ruling family. Geelle himself did not hide his business plans. 

 

Last year , he said in an interview that " the distance between Berbera and Wajaale is 280 km,and  it takes $1.2 million to build in 1 km , no one have $400 million" . He said 'Way riyoonayaan".  It is true that  the corrupt Jeegaan can not build anything let alone 280 km, but credible institutions and the private sector can easily built that road and more.

 

Around the world people develop ports within 100 km of one another to increase trade and  movements of goods for imports and exports, only Somali tribes do feel the threat of  development from others.

 

Having said that , DP world is not interested about building ports or developing businesses in Berbera  at this stage.  This intervention by UAE is just a political intervention and controlling the trade and business routes of the gulf and the red sea. It is also a kick to Farmaajo and Khayre who are scared to death of the gulf boys. Khayre knows that through Damujadiid and and others , UAE  can throw him out office in the next session of the parliament.

 

DP World  are probably a front company for the CIA or the American government to obstruct the One Belt One Road project by China. THe Chinese are investing $ 1 Trillion for these projects. In East Africa, their entrance points could be Mombasa, Berbera, and Mogadishu. Imagine Pakistan alone is getting $50 billion on ports , roads and trains.

 

The Nominal Chinese GDP has been growing for the last decade (all in USD):

2010: US: $14.96 trillion; China: $5.93 trillion
2015: US: $18.24 trillion; China: $11.12 trillion
2020: US: $23.10 trillion; China: $19.24 trillion
2025: US: $28.57 trillion; China: $30.70 trillion
2030: US: $35.10 trillion; China: $44.23 trillion

 

The US economy will not even reach $30 Trillion in 2025. So, in order to slow down the high speed Chinese train, these American front company called DP world is throwing crumbs to the hungry nomads. Do you thing these rich gulf boys need to scrap few millions from Berbera or Boosaaso?, i do not think so. 

Personally, I know where my plan is. I know who is cheating me and the somalis. When they ask the fat dictator how could he reconcile the Chinese who had opened their first ever base in Djibouti and the Americans?, he says, ' countries have interests and it is not about us, but the constant growing of the threat Somali pirates pose the world trade, that is what brings everyone here". as you can see, Gheelle is making half billion dollars on the Somali " Budhcad Badeed" saga.

During my last travel a friend who traveled with me had met an old friend of ours from the nineties in Canada. He became an agent for Al-Barakaat Company  in the late  the nineties.in the middle east. He was based in Dubai and used to manage hundreds of millions of dollars. Eventually he became big and e established his own company. He told my friend that most of his transactions were at the height of the pirate bonanza between 1998-2012.

 

He said, you can not believe who involved these highjacking of the ships. He said young Somalis with small and non seaworthy boats were dropped in the middle of the sea by both foreign and Somali business people. He said people from Dubia, New York and United Nations were involved and everyone took his cut. Most of that money was washed in Dubai and Nairobi.

He asked him about the Somali politicians and their role on these issues,  and he said, " those politicians are small potatoes, they were no bodies", he continued, " you throw them few dollars and they just disappeared, but the big money is made by lawyers, UN officials and Somali businessmen". He said you can not imagine who and who that was involved in  the pirate trade. Folks, I have a lot of info about these new Somali banks (Salaama, Dahabshill and others) who had built huge business and political capital that connects both Gheelle, Dubai, Qatar, Mogadishu and Hargeisa. THese are were the money from the gulf is washed. 

Finally, what is cooking both in Djibouti, MOgadishu, and Hargeisa is nothing but business transaction. Both Farmaajo , Ghelle and everyone else is involved. 

I told you long ago that, the southern man is all about ' Beeso" Ilaahay waxa uu ku ibtileeyey lacag in uu wax walba ku qiimeeyo. Now, these southern politicians have found their match. Another group who are deeply involved in business and money  had taken the helm of Somaliland. 

The Problem is Biixi is in big trouble and in hard place. Laba daran mid dooro. He is really scared to death. Do not listen the Habro kids who are praising Ghelle for the fear of being overthrown or challenged both financially and politically.

 

On one hand, everyone knows Djibouti has declared war on DP , Borreh and their business plans in Berbera. Cumar Ghelle spent $90 million in lawyer's fees in London and Dubai to extradite and get back the hundred of millions C/raxman Boreh took from Djibouti. He lost the case last year. Now Borreh is coordinating with Dubai and Ghelle will fight back hard.If things got ugly, Ghelle has a lot of tools to depose the Jeegaan both financially and politically. By the way C/raxman Borreh is the only person who is Somali orgin that his name was found in Panama papers. He has French passport with name of Charles Borreh.

If Biixi rejects the DP deal , he will face total isolation and sanctions from gulf who have spent millions in Somaliland. Without Dubai, they will not leave Hargeisa.

 

Folks, there is even war and competition among the Jeegaan itself. Sacad Cali Shire, the soft speaking foreign minister,  is allied with the Siilaanyo family and would like the conclusion of this deal. On the other hand , the man who financed the campaign of Muuse Biixi , and Djiboutian business and  oligarch Mr. Mohamed Aw Said , want to scrap the deal for his friend,  in law and business partner Cumar Gheelle. 

 

I will leave it there for now. Give me few more days and will come back to the SOL. I was in a hotel in Jeddah few days ago reading about the usual  obfuscating OO holding the court while the enclave dwellers cheering.I wanted to reach him and punch him in the face. Just Kidding. Thanks to  Tilamook for holding the court and refuting the "bs" from OO while I was away.  

 

Anyway, see in few days after the jet lag.

[maakhiri1]

Galbeedi, Well come back. You have been missed!

[galbeedi]

Maakhiri, 

Thanks Brother. I miss you guys.

[Old_Observer]

Welcome back. Hopefully you had pleasant trip.

You need to think twice now I am waving Ghelleh flag. Which according to your post seems Tigray.

BTW Meles wife was CEO of the corporation that owns some transport companies and other businesses. Its a public endowment fund. Not her or her family. She is out from last month.

[maakhiri1]

100% agree with you DP world is not about business, There was a article in the magazine posted by SULDAANKA, they found two things, 

1- DP world, claiming, the port Doraleh is at full capacity, and diverting shipment to DUBAI, they take 100% duty at DUBAI

2-Declined or slowed down or diverted big shipping companies that wanted to USE Port of Doraleh, and offered UAE ports!!!

They want to stop the CHINESE,  and SLers see short term gain, maybe recognition, maybe development,  

[galbeedi]

OO, 

I admire your tenacity .

Of course she is out now.

 

Maakhiri,

They were slowing down even the relief  freight for the UNited Nations . In 2016, they have diverted hundred of containers from Europe to Dubai. Cumar Ghelle is a tough guy and he finally made the tough decision. 

 

DP can not hurt Ghelle much. Even if he loses , DP might get back few millions of their shares. 

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

20 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

 

They want to stop the CHINESE,  and SLers see short term gain, maybe recognition, maybe development,  

 

It is the same in Afghanistan, Pakistan..this road and belt is going to get a lot of people killed without the chinese losing a single soldier.

Somaliland may nt be short term if Ghelleh is overpowered. Same happening in Ethiopia. Ghelleh may throw a monkey wrench and make confederation with Ethiopia same as Egypt and Syria had.

The last time he had similar problem that is what he proposed.

 

[galbeedi]

Somalia could help Djibouti.

 

All they need to do is g to the international court and the UN. Eventually Djibouti have to make a confederacy with Somalia. Ghelle has survived from Ethiopian take over. In fact, Some Amhara politicians were always saying as early as 2005, that we need to takeover Djibouti. 

OO, if there is one good thing the Tigray did was keep the Ahmara hungry politicians from power because they were really gunning to occupy Djibouti.

[Old_Observer]

2 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Somalia could help Djibouti.

 

All they need to do is g to the international court and the UN. Eventually Djibouti have to make a confederacy with Somalia. Ghelle has survived from Ethiopian take over. In fact, Some Amhara politicians were always saying as early as 2005, that we need to takeover Djibouti. 

OO, if there is one good thing the Tigray did was keep the Ahmara hungry politicians from power because they were really gunning to occupy Djibouti.

That is always the problem with Amhara.

They want just land and port no people. Amhara wanted to skip the will of the Somali and Afar and get into same problem as Eritrea.

They may even have entertained the idea of taking Somalia. Sometimes they have ignorant ideas. Tigray in all fairness have a mantra they repeat "countries, nations empires come and go but the people are there".

Ghelleh is also either good person or smart person or both, I have never heard wronging Somalis even when he did not support their objectives. He always sat and talked ONLF before taking any measures against them. He told them you cannot work or fight from here.

 

[galbeedi]

OOdweyne, 

it is nice to hear from you. 

 

I hope we shall all discuss things in reasonable manner while holding our courts.

People do not come here just to hear disparaging comments, so let us be civil for sake of everyone.

 

By the way, I still have a lot of " My sources" and I am intended to provide all that I can get. I have no reason to lie , especially now that.......

 

Habeen Wanaagsan. 

 

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

Confederation with Somalia would be ideal, but Gheulleh needs something ready made tool right now in a hurry. UAE is also not stranger to Mogadishu.

He has to involve Ethiopia. As poor or as backward it may be, but more weight and also he has better in/out with Ethiopia than Somalia.