Somalia is a victim of the Gulf Crisis

[Deeq A.]

Somalia is going through one of the most turbulent periods in its conflict-riddled history, having experienced ferocious civil war, drought and famine, state collapse, further today threatened by a ferocious terrorism campaign by the Al-Shabaab terrorist group.

There is an international scramble for the country’s resources and its strategic location. Countries from far and near are in a gold rush to get a foothold in the country and some are using tactics that appear to be making the conflict in Somalia worse.

So much so, that there have been concerns raised about the little progress made under the struggling peace process and how this could unravel. Somalia sits in a key strategic location in the Horn of Africa. Apart from its untapped mineral resources and underused vast arable land, it has potential to provide a badly needed strategic presence to powers currently jostling for space on the red sea coast and anywhere with proximity to the Bab-al-Mandab strait – a key maritime route and the second busiest waterway in the world. Approximately 23,000 ships pass by Somalia’s waters every year, which means about a trillion dollars of trade transits on its waters.

Somalia has never consistently had a natural strategic ally with influence. In the seventies and eighties, the dictatorship in Somalia danced between the United States and the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War, a political miscalculation that left a legacy of ruin and political instability.

With renewed focus on Somalia, the scramble and competition for the country is now pitting global allies and their proxies, who all have vital strategic interests in Somalia. This is beyond defeating terrorism and piracy off the Horn of the African coast. At one end, you have the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which are widely suspected by many political commentators of having the tacit approval of the United Kingdom Government. At a different end, you have Turkey who appears to have a blossoming relationship with Russia. Additionally, there are neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya who have always dominated the external influence on Somalia, since the civil war began in 1991, to protect its interests against terrorism spill over and manage the dislocation from refugee influx from Somalia into their territories.

Yet, it appears that recently, the most obvious and aggressive political spoilers have been the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Following the Gulf crisis in which Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt imposed air sea and land blockades on Qatar, Somalia’s government was formally approached by Saudi Arabia officials to cut ties with Qatar. Surprisingly, the Somali Federal Government took a strategic and brave decision to refuse their offer to take sides and instead offered to mediate between the fellow Arab league members.

Displeased by this gesture, the UAE and Saudi Arabia made the decision to embark on a mission to destabilise the Somali Government by directly approaching federal state members to cut ties with Qatar, undermining the fragile Federal Government structure in the war-torn country. They initially started their engagement with the de facto independent but not internationally recognised republic of Somaliland where the UAE convinced the leadership to cut ties with Qatar. Abu Dhabi then went ahead and signed an agreement to establish a military base in Berbera and take over the running of the port there. In Bosaso, in the Semi autonomous North East state of Puntland the UAE has taken over the running of the port of Bosaso, the state’s main source of revenue. They also convinced the administration there to cut ties with Qatar. All of this was done behind the federal government, which is constitutionally the custodian of sensitive state resources such as ports and airports.

These unilateral interventions by the UAE have caused turmoil within Somalia as the country faces unprecedented questions about its stability and peace building efforts. The UAE invited Somalia’s five Federal states to Dubai. After the meeting in Dubai, the federal states of Puntland, Hirshabelle and Galmudug released a joint statement supporting the UAE-Saudi Arabia blockade in their dispute with Qatar, further undermining the Federal Government’s position of neutrality. Then, on Sunday the 8th October 2017, the President of Somalia’s Jubaland Federal State, Ahmed Mohamed Islam ‘Madobe’ hosted a conference in Kismayo that was attended by four other regional leaders. This meeting was designed to protest against what they dubbed, “Mogadishu’s lack of consultation in regard to its decision on the Gulf Crisis”. While the meeting was touted as a means by regional leaders to come up with a more unified way of dealing with national interests, many retrospectively saw it as a UAE sponsored event, aimed at undermining the Federal government in Mogadishu and therefore unravelling the political federal structure of Somalia.

In the weeks that followed, UAE and Saudi Diplomats went further and decided to sponsor a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Hassan Khayre’s Government. In reaction to the parliamentary motion, Somalia’s security forces recently arrested a former presidential candidate Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, a pro-UAE politician and an outspoken critic of the government. The Government’s security forces clashed with his bodyguards during an overnight raid on his home and, which resulted in the unnecessary death of six young bodyguards and injuring Mr Warsame in the process.

From the above events, it is evident that Somalia’s political stability is being directly undermined and hijacked by the UAE and Saudi Arabia with visible aggressive and disruptive tactics designed to pursue their own interests. The tangible peace earned between Somali civil societies in the last two decades are on the brink of being eroded due to the blatant sabotage from these Gulf States, who will stop at nothing to get a stranglehold on Somalia, to shape its politics and policies.

Somalia does not deserve a return to civil war. Its people are already suffering from the effects of Al Shabaab’s senseless violence. Thus, The United Nations, African Union, regional organisations and friendly countries should not standby and watch their efforts to establish the little peace get destroyed before their eyes. Should the United Nations Office continue their silence on the aggressive behaviour of the Gulf countries, it will only question the role and purpose of the Office and its special representative in Somalia.

The real focus for all should be defeating Al Shabaab once and for all. The Somali troops, African Union peacekeepers and the international community has paid a heavy price in blood and treasure to combat terrorism. Such collective effort must not be wasted by the political interference of irresponsible Gulf States.

The will of the people must prevail and Somalia must be allowed to continue to chart its political and strategic course without unhelpful external interference. The Somali Parliament should also refrain from being used as a tool for hire and perform its August role, as it is one of the only few functioning institutions that has been re-established since the collapse of the Somali state.

The Somali federal government should also shun its intransigence, largely driven by pro-Qatar individuals in its midst and have dialogue with the fledgling opposition and those who hold a contrary view to its position on the Gulf crisis. The issues are complex and Somalia is at crossroads. Somalia’s politicians must find a political consensus that does not serve outsiders, but one that responds to the aspirations, hope, dignity and sovereignty of Somalia.

Abdirachid Fidow

Abdirachid Fidow is an advocate for peace and champions marginalised and discriminated groups in Somalia. He is also a member of the Anti-Tribalism Movement which works to tackle, educate and raise awareness about the effects of tribalism in communities.

The views expressed in this blog are solely representative of the author and does not represent the views of  Somalilandinformer.com. The site  endeavours to publish a wide variety of differing views to represent our audiences interests.