Ethiopian MPs' boycott over ethnic unrest

[Che -Guevara]

Is TPLF losing its grip on power? MPs of the Oromo People's Democratic Organization (OPDO) and Amhara  National Democratic Movement (ANDM) have refused to attend the parliament sessions. The parliament lacked quorum since these parties account for 50% of the MPs.

 

OPDO and  ANDM make up the largest block within Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). They were merely maqaarsaar for the TPLF but now they are acting more independently.

 

Like the Somali 'leaders' making their pilgrimage to Addis, such disrespect would have been unheard of during Zenawi era. Should OPDO and ANDM continue gaining power, Somalis are screwed as they have no seat at the federal level.

[Old_Observer]

37 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

Like the Somali 'leaders' making their pilgrimage to Addis, such disrespect would have been unheard of during Zenawi era. Should OPDO and ANDM continue gaining power, Somalis are screwed as they have no seat at the federal level.

 

Che,

The Somalis have 23 seats.

On the General issue the Somalis actually have the best seat in the house in Ethiopia. Next best seat are the Afar. Both the Somalis and Afar are each one Ethnic regions for the most part. They both are the only gateways to all of Ethiopias import export. They are both fairly organized to have order within their region.

 

If the SHTF the Somalis and Afar are the best position to come out fairly safe (if there is anything called safe). The Oromo are using mob rule to gain more influence, but you know what mob rule is that someone else can use it too. That is what will end up happening very soon. Never count on mob to achieve anything worthy or futuristic. A small organized pressure and firm on objectives is always and always preferred and in this case only choice. Mob rule is easiest to hijack for anyone who has money, smarts and these days even facebook or twitter account and the whole thing can blow up in ones face.

 

If the mob for example gets out of control and becomes Ruanda, its the end of those that started the mob. Those who started the mob in Ruanda not only lost control of it, but lost everything in terms of even participating in their country's affairs. All neighboring countries suspect them. Same thing in Ethiopia, everyone around the Oromo has now become suspicious.

 

As long as a region is fairly organized to keep internal order, it can declare its independence in a heart beat and who do you think  is going to stop it. The Oromo are counting on numbers, forgetting that Eritreans were only 2.5 million when thay paralysed Ethiopia and when 6-7 million at the time (Somali, Tigray and Afar) joined them it was all over.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

Old Observer,

 

Yes, you are right the Oromo are becoming belligerent and vicious.  When you say 23, I assume you mean the numbers of seats within the parliament? I understand EPRDF claimed to have won all the seats in the last election. My question is since the party is made of TPLF, OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM, how  do representatives from other regions including Somali and  Afar fit into it? Do they have a say in the Executive Committee?

[Mooge]

Quote

If the SHTF the Somalis and Afar are the best position to come out fairly safe (if there is anything called safe).

1

 

could afar and somalis have union if shit fails niyoow?  i think afar wants their own country badly so they wouldn't entertain the idea. they already sick of Djibouti. 

[Old_Observer]

5 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Old Observer,

 

Yes, you are right the Oromo are becoming belligerent and vicious.  When you say 23, I assume you mean the numbers of seats within the parliament? I understand EPRDF claimed to have won all the seats in the last election. My question is since the party is made of TPLF, OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM, how  do representatives from other regions including Somali and  Afar fit into it? Do they have a say in the Executive Committee?

 

Not on the EPRDF executive. The Somalis and Afar are called Allied parties. But both the Somali and Afar have their places in the federal government which is the executive in the country.

The Oromos are missing one very important point in federal system. A small province or region can stop the most populeous region. Prince Edward Island in Canada can stop Ontario (half the population of the country) since all provinces are equal. All nationalities in Ethiopia are also equal.

 

The facebook and twitter leaders of the Oromo, which the regional Oromia government seems trying to use it as well, are telling the mob that since Oromos are 40 million Oromo should be majority in federal positions. There cannot be a more stupedest argument than this.

If the Oromo take positions as per their population numbers, then there will be a  80 nationalities under them. It blows up in their face the next day. That is not how it works in any multi-ethnic federation or like UK. If one uses the Oromo logic, there would never be a Scottish, Welish..prime minister or cabinet minister in the UK, since the English are about 50 million of the 60 million UK population.

 

If the Oromo leaders think this works for them, they are in for a catastrophe where every other nationality will not accept their rule and of course ruling others by force is unthinkable even with 40 million of them. Even logistically their region is from Sudan to Somalia a thin twisting snaking region.

 

Patience is a vrtue for the Somali, which they seem to have now at the right time, since other nationalieties have already started questioning the Oromo (from south). In my view, don't panic, be prepared for worst, but do not get ahead of the Oromo. Let them lead themselves to the destination they intend.

 

The northern parts of Ethiopia Tigray, Afar, Agew/Amhara (except some around the capital), Benshangul is also showing patience, not reacting. 

[Che -Guevara]

Old Ovserver,

 

Well, they are becoming more emboldened everyday. They seemed to have embraced the idea that they could bully everybody. Would other nationalities specially the Amhara be comfortably with having someone like Lemma Mergersa as the Prime-Minister?

 

My only concern with Somalis is that they will mirror with what's going in Somalia. It is a vast region populated by most Somali clans with not enough force to impose the will of the State. The Somali tribal regions namely Somaliland and Puntland will also be tempted to get involved. Even if the Somali gets independence, Somali idiocy might plunge it into war.

[Old_Observer]

Che,

 

Djibouti and Somaliland have only one option if they want to stay alive in relation to the Somali and Afar in Ethiopia. Both Somaliland and Djibouti have to if they can support the Somali and Afar regions, and if they can't stay as far as possible from the situation. Both Djibouti and Somaliland know and are practicing this to a tee.

 

The moment Djibouti interfers against either region, its the end of the regime. The moment Somaliland interfers against Somali region its the end of her.

 

Puntland will also stay away from this, unless to help the Somali region, as a united region, since Puntland's interest is being there a government in Ethiopia supportive and agreeable of Puntland, which has been and still is the reality. 

[YoniZ]

Old Observer,  sxb thanks for the enlightening intervention at this important topic.

 

I am anxious to know about your take on, why the Somali region is allowed to build formidable security sector in the past decade?

 

Gelbeedi and the Co. should step a little bit back, and stop feeding us kacaan style fadhikudirir

 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Mooge said:

 

could afar and somalis have union if shit fails niyoow?  i think afar wants their own country badly so they wouldn't entertain the idea. they already sick of Djibouti. 

 

There is no need to do that. They each are strong enough on their own regions and it by the looks of it,  even ONLF has come to the realization that this would be the very worst time be in the way of the Somali region, which is to be commended.

 

The Oromos have already achieved the impossible all by themselves. Deepening and taking to the heighest level of suspicion which was anounced from the meeting of the EPRDF executive meeting. Mistrust is killer.

 

If the Oromo are complaining of Tigray dominance, everyone else except them have now come to realize that the Oromos are going for dominance. In politics if you cannot achieve something mischivous quickly without the other side realizing, if your objective becomes known, you cannot succeed.

 

Timing is everything and method. The Oromo already failed on both.

 

I hope you know what it means for the Oromo to sign and anounce that all their movement and mob is based on suspicion. Yet that is what they agreed to and anounced for all Ethiopians including on their own Media.

[Che -Guevara]

Old Observer,

 

So, would other members of EPDRF more amenable to someone like Lemma, granted if they agree on allowing Oromo politician as the head of government? Or does everybody now believe Oromo want all or nothing?

[maakhiri1]

It is looks like Ethiopia is finally falling apart, You Reap What You Sow

[Che -Guevara]

Ironically enough, a stable Somalia would have been a great asset for Ethiopia at  moment like this. The Horn will rise together or burn together.

 

Ethiopia is the source of stability and instability in the Horn.

[Holac]

Do Oromos have any wealth in Ethiopia? Do they own prime assets and business in Ethiopia? I hope they are not all peasants because that is what comes to mind when we hear the word Oromo, a result of years of Amhara/Tigray propaganda. 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

9 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Old Observer,

 

So, would other members of EPDRF more amenable to someone like Lemma, granted if they agree on allowing Oromo politician as the head of government? Or does everybody now believe Oromo want all or nothing?

 

 

Actually if there is any brain cells left with the Oromo leaders, they should be the first once to oppose it. One cannot take Premiership of the federal government by threatening of killing and also actually killing civilians and poor farmers of other nationalities in your region. There is a lot of Habeshi individuals killed in Oromo region that is not being announced in the Amhara diaspora media on purpose. The Amhara diaspora is waiting for the Oromo to keep going.

 

I also think the South will not accept it, since there is conflict at their bordering areas with Oromo.

[galbeedi]

Ragyahow , You can call what you wish, but the genie is out of the box. Everyone knows that today the word "Oromo"  means trouble. In 1974 when Tafari Bante briefly became president of Ethiopia, the  Oromo had massacred a lot of people.

 

What you must realize is that  the old empires of the old world had crumbled and ceased to exist or changed forms. Even republics and nations forced by 1914, versailles treaty had vanished including Yugoslavia and others. The Ethiopian highlanders came to the South and Western Somalia during the conquest of the last century. After the collapse of Emperor Haile Salase, Ethiopia should have disbanded, but a communist dictatorship had  kept together.

 

In order to eliminate the extensive power of Amhara bureaucracy and elite throughout the country,  Meles Zanawi proposed ethnic federalism. Before that , the police, the municipal staffer, the judge and all the government employees across Ethiopia were Amhara. By stroke of genies Meles sent the Amhara packing  to their regions. He also nurtured the Oromo public with development aid and appointments while  at the same time checking his power with his military. The Oromo elite were building capacity and muscle . In order to sideline the Amhara, Meles encouraged them and allowed them  to broadcast their  500 year  old Amhara  grievances and domination in the airwaves.

 

The Oromo are two schools at the moment. Those who want to rule Ethiopia and show their power without dismantling it, and those who want their own country. At the moment, the majority want to rule Ethiopia and dominate as they have been dominated. The TPLF never prepared or expected a parliamentary democracy were members would debate issues. It was the prime minister who ruled and was backed by the military might of the Tigray run army. 

 

THe Tigray officer corps can not force the Oromo and Amhara concrips to shoot their own citizens. Also, they can not subdue big cities with millions. Just 50 miles from Addis, you have towns with over a million people . The ruling Tigre has two choices: either give power or disband Ethiopia.

 

The Somalis do not have a seat at the federal table. They do not have neither generals, parliament speakers, president, foreign minister or any public official that has a say in the federal affaires. When Cabdi Illey is attacked by the Oromo federal elites, it is the Tigre ministers or generals who usually defends him.The Oromo has the president, and their speaker , just a month ago, has resigned in protest on these issues. Worst of all there are no Somali council or assembly like in the Oromo regions. We either live or die with Cabdi Illey.

 

Many months ago I said that if Cabdi Illey acts responsibly and keeps the Somali region as a unit it may survive and declare an independent state.He has a well trained and ruthless paramilitary force that could keep order if  things get out of hand. Yet, if he keeps acting and abusing Somalis in a manner never seen anywhere in the world, people will try to resist and take up arms against his tyranny. To be blunt , Cabdi Illey will be better than anarchy  and Somali tribal war. That is the last thing  any sensible Somali would want. A dictator will be always better than anarchy.

 

Maybe,  we the diaspora , and others should engage him and advice him  to come to his senses and stop the cruel oppression of his own people. Those who have influence must tell him to release the innocent business people he jailed in jijiga for months, and cultivate a new relationship with the Somali elders and businessmen.

 

A friend who traveled few months ago said, " he can not imagine how the Somalis are abused and treated in the Zone and no one would raise the issue. A long line up that started a mid morning might not even finish with a dozen cars and if the sun goes down all those people must return to their destinations.  The car you are traveling is dismantled literally by pieces including tyres , and if an old and tired mother tried to sit after hours of standing, she will be wiped by the Tigre soldiers. 

By the way these are Ethiopian Somalis who went to Somaliland for basic foods and other goods since EThiopia is landlocked and for Somalis , that is the only place to buy things.

 

Mr. Old observer says that " since Puntland's interest is being there a government in Ethiopia supportive and agreeable of Puntland, which has been and still is the reality". 

 

Well, my friend one must observe the huge repercussions the Ethiopian collapse might mean in the horn, and especially the pros and cons vis a vis  the Somali state, not the interest of  Puntland and Somaliland who  masquerade as semi independent states. That bargain will be over.

 

Folks, do not lose sleep on the collapse of Ethiopia.  Inaga maxaa inoo hadhay, sawtaan masiibo oo dhan soo taabanay. 250,000 aya gaajo u dhintay lix sano ka hor, 2011,abaar aan dhmaanayn iyo dhiig, waar  waxba ha ka baqanina, ee waxaad yeeshaan u aqli celiya Cabdi Illey si aanay Soomaalida Galbeed dagaal jabhadeed oo cusub u galin. As Che used to say, " let the shit hit the fan".

 

When I transited  through Addis, I had seen, people from "Afrikada Duntay" coming from Europe and passing through their airport and their airline. Travelers were coming from Jubba, South Sudan, Djibouti-- a forty years old dictatorship that can not even run a small airline company--Somalis from around the globe, people from central Africa, Uganda, and other places. They got rich from the suffering of others, and the time has come that this artificial country to disappear from the map. I know many Somalis especially from those from Somaliland , Puntland, South West, Djibouti and many other places ,will be crying about  the eventual demise of Mama Ethiopia, because no one will protect them from us, because we are coming for them. There will not be a guarantor for many artificial Somali states, then and only then,  will the Somali state will take it's place. 

 

A friend of mine from Burco told me last week that as long as Ethiopia is there , somaliland is guaranteed to exist. Who knows , Allah works in a mysterious way and we might get back our state in another manner.

 

. The realities on the ground were set long ago when the TPLf allied itself with rogue leaders in order to sideline the Amhara. They never worried about the Oromo, the only people they thought would make a serious challenge was the Amhara. The Tigre call the Amhara as supremacist , Nazi, or Naftenya which the Jijiga media also copies. The Oromo hated the Amhara more than anything, but that fortune was changed by Illey. Folks, we are suffering for what a ruthless and greedy Somali leader has sawed. Despite the loss of life in the hands of Oromo, there is still a chance to work with them and find solutions. One thing must be clear for everyone here that the the Somali interest is different than what the TPLF is leading to  us and we must reject their direction. Ask yourself , despite the huge loss of the Somalis,why the Oromo leadership is accusing the Tigre  army of orchestrating some of the events. 

 

It is like Trump supporters. No one can reason with them. One thing I agree with the Old Observer  is that we Somalis must stay together and storm the coming wave. I hope we may survive. 

 

Finally, Yoniz,

 

Anigu Dhashii kacaanka kuu soo barbaaray ee weliba berigaa kacaanka necbaa ayaan ahay, laakiin markaan dib u eegay, dalba  kacaankii barakeysnaa kama dambyn. Mid kacaankii hore ka duwan oo ka sal balaadhan ayy laga yaabaa in uu yimaadee, ha noqon kuwa la soo qaqabanyo. Waa iga talo.