Ethiopia’s Policy of Destabilization: Would Somalia Recover or Succumb to Full Annexation

[Deeq A.]

This piece is in reference to Dr. Belete Yihun’s article titled “Ethiopian Foreign Policy and the Ogaden War: The Shift from “Containment“ to “Destabilization“, 1977 – 1991.  I will summarise my take on the article in this first paragraph and introduce my comments on the subsequent ones.

As the title depicts, the central theme of the article is – Ethiopia defeated Somalia in the 1977 war then destabilized it.  Following the defeat of the Somali army, the Derg regime replaced Ethiopia’s old policy of “containment“ with destructive strategies aiming for the total demise of the Somali Republic.  The purpose of destabilizing Somalia was to quell its “ irredentist agenda“.

External and internal factors did play role in the process of destabilizing Somalia.  The Cold War was a complicating factor as actors such as USSR, USA, UK, Italy and Egypt further exacerbated the dispute in the Horn.  USSR, Cuba and South Yemen (allies of Ethiopia then) were instrumental in the defeat of the Somali army, which was the turning point of Somalia’s downfall.  Among the internal factors include the economic, political and psychological setbacks Somalia inherited from the war.

Barre’s “extrajudicial executions“ subjected to particular clans was a major setback that waned his government’s popularity. But the most devastating element that Ethiopia largely exploited and brought about Barre’s fall was the anti-government armed factions (SSDF, SNM, USC, and SPM) sponsored by Ethiopia.  Albeit the author focused on the period between 1977 and 1991, he made note of the fact that the root of the conspiracy against Somalia dates back to the imperial reign of Haile Selassie.  Examples of the old mutinies that Ethiopia either orchestrated or played a role include the incident of 1961, where a group of Somali officers from the north created mayhem (apprehended towns) in an effort to dismantle the Republic and bring about succession. Again in 1966, Ethiopia influenced a disgruntled group in the north who created anti-union movement named North Somali Liberation Front, and another dissent movement in the south called South Somali Refugee Association.  Election related violence in the 60’s is also linked to covert plots that were coming from Addis Ababa.

Emphasising his country’s motives, Dr. Yihun stated “ the overall intention of Ethiopia was neither to replace Barre with friendly elements nor to ascertain its suzerainty over Somalia, but merely to destabilize and incapacitate the Republic. In this regard the opposition groups, even if fully supported, were supposed to not rise to power and remain pro-Ethiopian“.   The author concluded that the destabilization of Somalia was neither a successful plan for the Derg nor for Ethiopia in general, because four months after the fall of Barre’s regime and Somalia plunged into a dreadful civil war, the Derg was forced out of power, and the ensued regime is paying a heavy price for the destabilization in Somalia.

Why Ethiopia Destabilized Somalia?

Although Dr. Yihun has exposed compelling facts regarding the destabilization in Somalia, his argument that Ethiopia destabilized Somalia merely to incapacitate the Republic is contrary to the reality on the ground. Somalia has become a tributary vassal state of Ethiopia on the verge of ceasing to be.  Ethiopia’s geopolitical agenda in the Horn is far more complex than how Yihun has mapped it out – limiting his country’s motives on the confines of deterring irredentism.  Such an argument could have been tenable when the two states were at war, but not after Ethiopia with the blessing of western global order had destroyed Somalia and polarized it into contentious tribal enclaves who are obsequiously submissive to the dictates of Addis Ababa.

It is well documented that Ethiopia had age old plan to alter its landlocked map to one that contains a significant portion of the vast Somali coastline, if not all of it.  And since the imperial era, western countries have been supportive of Ethiopia’s colonial aspirations in the Horn.  It was apparent such ambitions were not feasible in the presence of a strong Somali state capable of protecting its territorial sovereignty. The destabilization came as a stepping-stone to achieving those aspirations – further appropriation of Somali territories by its neighbours. Kenya partook in disabling Somalia and has been a strong ally of Ethiopia since the two established the joint military strategy known as Kenya-Ethiopia Defence Pact signed in 1964 and has been renewed over the years. Initially, the cornerstone of that treaty was to jointly countervail any action toward the liberation of the annexed Somali territories (Northern Frontier District or Western Somalia aka Ogaden region).

After the fall of the Somali state, they jointly embarked upon a systemic remapping of Somalia in an effort to exploit its resources.  They invaded Somalia and each is securing its spoils of the victory.  Kenya has extended its control over offshore as well as inland territories (Jubbaland), where Ethiopia sat no known limits, a phenomenon that has literally dissolved Somalia’s known borders.  Kenya has fully taken over Kismayo port, while Ethiopia is managing a gradual takeover as in the case of Berbera port.  Almost in every tribal enclave there is an Ethiopian “consulate general” as though its official embassy in Mogadishu is not enough.  What is the logical explanation to these consulates other than Somalia being a vassal state of Ethiopia?

Somalis require strict visas to enter Ethiopia including their seized territories while Ethiopians need no visas and their swelling communities in major cities like Hargeisa, Bosaso and Mogadishu are quite alarming.  Somali leaders have no audacity to address violations on Somali borders and the huge influx of Ethiopians which is a stark threat to the present and future security of the country.  In addition to that, Ethiopia has been micromanaging Somalia politics in an unprecedented manner to the extent that the intimidation has been felt by clan elders and the ordinary people.

Why Somalia Collapsed so Quickly?

No doubt, the war had severe impact on Somalia, but the state collapse came as a result of longstanding social ills. “A society which is endowed with lofty values, makes progress, but a society in which values deteriorate, degenerates”.  Before the war, the Somali society was morally weak due to germs inherited from colonialism and decades of poor leadership.  One of Frantz Fanon’s quotes was “Imperialism leaves behind germs of rot which we must clinically detect and remove from our land but from our minds as well”.  

Somalis have never been able to seriously detect those germs let alone to remove it from their land.  In 1960, people celebrated for a pseudo freedom they have never enjoyed in its real sense.  After independence, they continued to be victims of manipulation until the country crumpled and became “the most failed state in the world”.  The root of the moral disease that destroyed Somalia dates back to the colonial era and the seeds imperialists planted before and during the 10-year period of the Italian Trusteeship Administration.  The biggest oversight was failing to scrutinize the alien canons left behind by the colonizers that were incompatible with the intrinsic values of the society.  Instead, the first vital institutions (education, legal, political, financial, cultural, etc.) were built on those faulty principles. The so called elite who run the major part of those institutions were individuals shaped and sponsored by the colonial system, Fanon described them “black skin white mask” – they look like the indigenous people but their thinking and moral values resemble that of the white colonizers.

The consequence was fatal as the Republic and the feckless ideologies (nationalism, secularism, unfettered western liberal democracy) that groomed it could not sustain, but gave way to a brutal communist dictatorship in less than a decade. The ruthless military rule led to further moral decline by waging explicit vicious attack on Islam via killing, torture, incarceration and indoctrination to the point where the society lost touch with its identity as a nation and cracked into disgruntled tribes. A huge brain drain took off as people started to escape from government persecutions. A new social structure emerged best described by the saying “every nation is a people though not every people is a nation”.  In this regard, the society could not differentiate the difference between a brutal regime and a dangerous enemy in pursuit of its destruction.  The regime became the enemy and the tribe became the refuge.

This immoral sense led the very Somali officers who gave Ethiopia a disgraceful defeat in the initial phase of the 77 war to spearhead the armed factions that Ethiopia sponsored for the destabilization in Somalia.  Consequently, poorly armed ragtag clan militias chased Barre and his sophisticated army out of the country. Paradoxically, Barre’s generals who were supposed to defend the country were the first who had absconded. When morality dies and courage dwindles, big numbers and arsenal would not count much.

Would Somalia Recover or Dismantle Further?

Somalia has been badly destabilized and continues to move in that direction. Reversing the current abysmal trend seems unforeseeable in the near future because of three major problems: the forces responsible for the demise of the country are very present, the current political system is unlikely to bring viable change as it is doomed to failure on massive scale, and the society lacks the capacity to engage the deep change it needs.

Rumours are speculating that Washington and its allies are finally on the move to crash the religious insurgents in order to invest in a kleptocratic government in a bid to exploit the oil in Somalia.  Even if that is the case, defeating the current insurgents does not mean that will be the end of them, and kleptocracy (rule by thugs) would only nurture tyranny.

The other plausible scenarios include Somalia may remain in this vassal state until its population turns out minority against Ethiopia’s 100 million, a phenomenon that would reshape Ethiopia as the largest country with the longest coast in the continent.  A third possibility is that the disoriented masses may fully rally behind the religious insurgents causing massive unrest potential to spill over to the adjacent borders.  This is where Ethiopia particularly is likely to pay a real heavy price by decomposing into serious religious and ethnic lines.

Conclusion

The ideology-driven conflict in Somalia is not going to die for good even if the current group is overpowered.  Despite the presence of existential threat coupled by deep fragmentation, there is some sort of resilience stemming from whatever is left of the Islamic spirit. The serenity brought by the Islamic Courts Union in the midst of the chaos in 2006 is stark evidence that Islam is the only ideology that can unite Somalis and bring peace and stability in the short and long term.  It is time Somalis should seriously look the Sharia law as an alternative for their survival.

We are not talking here about a superficial Sharia law substituted with canons inspired by western secular codes except limited familial issues like marriage, divorce and inheritance. What Somalia needs is a comprehensive Sharia law that will foster peace, human governance and prosperity.

Burhan Alas
Email: burhanalas2017@gmail.com