Muuse Biixi might end up in Hague after the election.

galbeedi · October 29, 2017

Waxay na badeen , waxay na bareen baa ka sii daran.

Few years ago if you asked Awdalites about Muuse Biixi, they would described him as a unrepentant warlord, gangster and the personification of ugly past of Somaliland. No one in their right mind would have even entertained the thought about this person seeking the highest office.

Since then few things happened. The Somaliland political system has destroyed not only the cohesiveness of the Awdal community through tribal lines, but the whole society of Somaliland has lost all matters of unity, honesty, honor, respect for the rule of law , earning honest day of work and everything that holds people together. While the people in general hold the the idea of communal peace and coexistence, the politicians have worked overtime to destroy every thing that holds people together. The hope is, life , liberty and the economy does not depend on the government ,but to the people.

Siilaanyo is sick and senile, but through his cronies , he knows how to apply the divide and rule methods he learned many years ago by being a loyal student of Siyaad Barre , for a long time. With 80% unemployment among the youth and others, people have to beg the few government positions and contracts in order to survive, and those jobs are usually given to those who are loyal to ruling tribe.Villages with less than 50 people were made districts in order to entice people to think that favours had been given to their sub clan. The seventy or so ministers, deputy ministers and state ministers must whip their clans and bribe everyone in order to find support for Muuse Biixi. If your cousin or clan member joins the opposition, you will fired and replaced with another hungry minister who who will do the dirty job whipping the clan.

Many people have shocked when they saw ministers, deputy ministers, governors, mayors, parliamentarians and other jumping the ship and joining the opposition party of Waddani, just few weeks or months before the election. Because , one of the systems Ahmed Siilaanyo brought to Somaliland is ministers and governors would draw the salary after they were dismissed. If you keep quiet and do not join the opposition, you will keep the car and keep your ministerial salary of couple of thousand dollars. As their term concludes people are now free and are willing to forfeit their salary for future fortunes.

Another reason is people had seen the wind of change and are smelling the victory of the opposition party. In this case , the Waddani party will have huge problem to govern after they won the election, because every Cali and Cumar want to join the bandwagon and claim to be part of the new change.

The Awdal community had suffered the same fate of divide and rule. Contracts, jobs, and management positions are given to divide people. The same people who have openly discussed the threat of Muuse Biixi and his presence in the political arena are now ignoring after they have been bribed with money and positions. Another thing that must be noted is the Kulmiye party had flooded millions of dollars to the streets of Borama. For example a group of people will hold a rally and voluntarily support the opposition party. Few days later, money would come from Hargeisa and that same clan or group will hold another rally and show their imaginary support in order to earn that cash. Usually, the Kulmiye guys never take the initiative of organizing in the city, they always react and try to answer with money.

one day later the same guy leading the rally was bought and they said he changed.

When you ask people , why there is these counter rally of Kulmiye?, they will tell you the famous statement Somali parliamentarians used to proclaim when Hassan Sheikh was distributing cash, namely, (Lacagtana qaado, codkana mucaaradka sii") take the money and vote to the opposition.

The problem is that the Siilaanyo government had created a system of government that rewards people openly with the public funds and encourages looting as long as they are loyal. As we speak politicians are seling parks, school yards, bus stands, libraries and government buildings. People are realizing that being part of the ruling class means rich and rewarded.

THe people of Awdal had made huge mistakes by accepting Siilaanyo or the SNM group to rule in Somaliland. Cigaal had thrown out these unrepentant warlords long time ago, but a weak and spineless Dahir Rayaale allowed them to come back to power. Now they have the audacity to bring unrepentant warlord as the new leader. If he want to be the governor of Hargeisa , that is fine, but he should not be ruling over others. No Somali group or region would accept those who had blood in their hands and took part in the civil war.

If Mohamed Qanyare, Cismaan Caato, who were lieutenants of General Caydiid were rejected, or Mohamed Cumar Jees, Morgan, and Shaati Gaduud were only confined to their regions what made you think these Muuse Biixi will rule over other clans.

Waar Mujaahidku reerkiisa ayuu Mujaahid U yahay laakiin cid kale uma aha. Xaafadiisa ha maamulo laakiin dad kale i uu xakumo laga ogolaan maayo.

I do not think that Muuse Biixi could win the , but if he steals the election , some serious things could happen.

We do not make up this staff.

Anigoo wax dili kara duca qaadan maayo.

1- South Hargiesa, Togdheer, and Sanaag would rebel.

if this unrepentant warlords takes power. His presence would remind people of the bloody civil war that took place between 1994-96. When he was told to lay down the gun and reconcile among the brothers who were fighting, he proclaimed that, " I will not take or accept blessing as long as I am capable killing with the barrel of the gun. It is not a legend , but that famous "Afaray' is well known throughout the land. His presence would open the wounds of civil war which will weaken the cohesiveness of Somaliland.

2- Awdal state will emerge again.

Awdal State issue will emerge again and this time with a serious leaders . The presence of this man would unite a large segment of the population which would eventually damage both the Awdal people and Somaliland. The last campaign by Suldaan Wabar was a dry run by a non politician Suldaan who did not had the means and ability, but if a serious leader comes things could change.

Here the grand Suldaan of Awdal

3- Sool region will not be the same despite the buying of Cali Khaliif.

My sources told me that Cali Khaliif got an initial payment of $820,000 when he went to Hargeisa in the summer with his parliament chairman. What Cali Khaliif did not know is that millions of dollars had been spent by Siilaany to divide and fragment that society and he will be following the same footsteps steps of his nomad clans rooming the land. Who would have thought a well off business man in his seventies would cash in for the fragmentation of his people. He and Proff. .Samatar had talked this issue way back in 2013 in Mogadishu, and decided to shift their policy toward somaliland. Samatar had decided to change the course and accept what ever criticism and abuse that comes toward his way. Unlike Galaydh, Samatar could not organize the Awdal tribes toward his agenda. What infuriates people is the winding road Galaydh reached to cash in.

He could not even organize or sway 20% of the people toward his plan. All the false hopes of opening the constitution and making Khaatumo as a viable land controlled by "Reer Sool" ; all the tough talk of saying that he does not want anything from Somaliland has evaporated. Eventually, he cashed and would disappear soon.

At the same time during the reign of Siilaanyo there were a lot of brinkmanship involving both open war, influence peddling, bribing and low intensity conflict in the Sool region involved between the Siilaanyo community and the Sool region. The East Burco community had asked Siilaanyo and his tribal lieutenants to find a peaceful solution and some kind of normalcy among them and Reer Sool. They said that they were defending Somaliland and his seat , now that you are leaving , do not expose us with open tribal conflict with our neighbors , so find a solution( Waar Soomaaliland Iyo Kursigaaga Ayaan difaacaynay Colaadna waad noo abuurataye, inta aadan tegin arinta Qabaa'ilka ee na dhex taala reer Sool naga xali).

So, Siilaanyo and his tribe had spent millions to appease and calm the waters. In one instance, 20 landcruisers were sent to Sool to distribute among the elders to buy their silence and support. Unfortunately, Cali Khaliif became one of the elders who were easily bought. Siilaanyo and company have mastered how to use the public purse to buy and appease opponents. The first leader of AWdal State that was celebrated in the diaspora Rashiid Aw Nuur , was easily bought and brought to Borama with few shekels. As we speak, he resides in Borama and hides from the people.

Also, his hatred and antipathy of Puntland is very deep. Some say it had started in 1972 when Siyaad Barre made Laascaanood to be ruled from Garoowe and the Nugaal governorship, but I do believe that his hatred is mostly based about the political defeat he got from late President C/laahi Yusuf. In 2000, after C/qasim made him prime minister, it was sidelined by a coalition of politicians from South west and Puntland , led by AHN C/llla Derow and C/laahi Yusuf. He was replaced by Hassan abshir. Since then, he fought many battles to avenge that defeat with no success. The tragedy is that he sacrificed his whole political career and his people just to stick to Puntland.

What I am getting is that even with Cali Khaliif at the helm, Muuse Biixi will exasperate the issue and the Sool region will rise up again. The East Burco clan will not be the one pushing for conflict next time.

4- Documented cases of atrocity and war crimes against Muuse Biixi.

Ahmed Siilaanyo was the political leader of SNM. He is one of those who led the clan based Somali movements that fought the dictatorship of Siyaad Barre. His people rightly celebrate and respect his struggle and sacrifice he made toward his people. Also, seeing the tribal nature of Somalis and what came after the collapse of the Somali state, his community feels that his actions were instrumental of their self rule and the meagre progress they made. Some might say that today, compared to the conditions of Somalia, Somaliland might have done something tangible and peaceful.

Despite poverty and unemployment, Somaliland is a beacon of peace and progress. After seeing the Mogadishu bombs, it is not fair to put down or deny these achievements by the people of Somaliland. We might criticises bribes, corruption and the failure of the institutions, but at least , you won't be murdered as you go by to your daily lives.

This is the Cismaan Caato of Somaliland.

Yet all that achievement and peace could evaporate if people follow their tribal and ugly instincts by electing a warlord who should be in some obscure house in Hargeisa. Folks, I am not exaggerating, but there are documented cases of atrocity by Muuse Biixi. Unlike Ahmed Siilaanyo who was a political leader , this man was a commander and a person who oversaw the killing of innocent people.

Folks we have ton of information and other serious issues pointing out about unelectability of Muuse Biixi in the next few days. I am not kidding but if this guy becomes the president of Somaliland, he may end up in Hague, the international criminal court. There are active , corroborated cases with witnesses that could easily be brought to these courts. The Hassan Appolo case is well known in Awdal and in Somaliland. A popular football star of "Woqoyi Galbeed" raised in Hargeisa was murdered by his orders.

There was a similar case of people ended up at the hands f SNM but with better outcomes. A man by the Named of general Mohamed Hassan C/laahi " Jidhif" , commander of the SNM coastal militia , who received dozens of Awdalites deported from Djibouti By Cumar Geele uncle and thrown in Lawyacado. It alleged that they had no shoes when they were deported, but Mr. Jidhif gave them shoes , food and asked that these men be taken safely to Borama. Jidhif saved people while Muuse murdered. These stories are well known just as the one committed by Muuse Biixi.

If this man becomes leader expect nothing but trouble. Every politician known to Somaliland has abandoned him, except Cali Khaliif and Proff. Samatar. In Awdal, when people were asked about these professors and how they were out of touch of the local reality , they said (Adeer nimankan aad leedihiin waa "graduate" , anagu waxaan u naqaanaa , Garaad weyd, rag garaadka caato ka ah).

Finally, I did talk to some prominent unionists in the diaspora and to my surprise they favor Muuse Biixi. They base their conclusion for two reasons:

first, he might be a tough guy as described by Samatar and others as a former fighter, but political legitimacy trumps everything.He will be a weak and will strong opposition from many regions and will be weakened within, which denies him strong mandate. So, there will be a fertile ground for opposition.

Second, he will be able to sell the union issue if there were agreements with Somalia, by claiming that as a former fighter he has the interest of the people since he shed blood for the land. In political jargons rightwing leaders are better equipped to deal these issues. They said that Daahir Rayaale as a former officer who was not part of SNM had a difficulty talking to Somalia. Unlike Siilaanyo, Rayaale even rejected sitting a table with Somali Leaders claiming to be a different country. At the heat of the election, Shariif Ahmed dispatched $3million dollars to Siilaany, yet, latter Shariif who was novice politician regretted about the whole affair.

They afraid that president Cirro will keep the status quo for two reasons: One, his lieutenants Xirsi H. Xasan and former diplomat Mohamed B. Yoonis had already participated both the London and Istanbul negotiations and know how to drag, procrastinate and get the cash from the international community by appearing to be a genuine negotiators. They will entertain Farmaajo just like they did with Hassan Sheikh who realized in early 2015 that these talks were not going anywhere.

Second, he is a very slow person who might not make tough decisions. THey think that he will keep the status quo just like Siilaanyo and find ways to milk money from Farmaajo by accepting talks which will not go anywhere. I feel deep down that some of these unionists favor the chaos candidate to open up things. In my opinion these unionists might be reading different tea leafs. Look at Trump, he acts as tough, but American power and prestige is weakened around the world while he is feuding cable news.

Who knows what we hate might be our cures.

History is repeating itself across the Somali region. Warlords are emerging both from the south and north in 2017.

Libaax-Sankataabte · October 29, 2017

Without me commenting on Biixi's questionable past, Galbeedi, is it not a progress to break up big clans into smaller units that can vote for different candidates based on "sub-clan" interest? Subclan A from Awdal + Subclan B from Hargeisa + Subclan C from Sanaag = Wadani or vice versa.

Somaliland politics is inherently clan-based, but it is probably the only clan-based system closest to a true democracy in the region.

galbeedi · October 29, 2017

I agree. It is the combination of culture , clan and democracy (qabiil, dhaqan iyo dimoqraadiyad). The tribal combination of Waddani is not that much different than Kulmiye, but it seems that the coalition of Waddani clans are broad based and voluntary without buying people and bribing.

In all in terms of the election, Somali experts say that it is a Somali experience that should be welcomed by all. The idea of people voting by one man and one vote is a huge task, and if Somaliland pulls this , it will be a great victory for all Somalis. When you see our neighbors: Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan Eritrea and Kenya, it is a big step taken forward by a Somali administration, and a such should be welcomed.

My only objection is this Muuse guy got the nomination by bombing the city and intimidating Siilaanyo. THen he took over the party without contrast. That kind of leadership should be shunned and discouraged. In the end I hope things go as planned. In late July,2017, a high ranking UCID official who visited Alberta, Canada said that the international community has a big misgivings about the prospect of Muuse Biixi taking the helm. In fact they are worried.

We all hope for the best.

Mooge · October 29, 2017

galbeedi salaan sxb.

muuse biixi is the incarnation of caydiid in somaliland niyoow. killer biixi will win this election because he has jamaal, silaanyo and lots and lots of money given by the UAE. but kulmiye is already spreading fake news that cirro got big money from Iran and Qatar too. lool somaliland election is comedy walahi. waa shactiro soconaysa.

Holac · October 30, 2017

Good analysis Galbeedi. I don't think Bixi will win. There is a sizeable Somaliland diaspora here in Fairfax area and everyone in my family circles is under the impression Wadani has the population numbers working for them.

Suldaanka · October 30, 2017

I beg to differ about Muse Biixi. He may have a colour past, including playing some part in the Habar vs Habar wars, but who else didn't play a role on those clan wars? Probably not a single politician or military person at the time is clean about the Habar/Habar wars. It was essentially a political war convoluted into clan wars.

Those wars and those who took part shook hands and let the past go.

What you have today, is just a political gamemanship. You have the Kulmiyes accusing the Waddani's of being pro "Unity" when in fact that is far from truth. And the Waddani's bringing out Muse Biixi's roles in those clan wars.

At the end of the day, this is a tit for tat political game. All will come to a complete end after the elections takes place. And a winner is announced.

Having said that, I don't know where this "Hague" thing you have comes from. If there is anyone going to Hague, there is thousand of known criminals who used the power of a "national" goverment to go and carry out a ethnic cleansing. I don't need to name them as they are all over the place.

Any inter clan fighting or retaliation which took place under Siyad Barre's regime, then that Dictatorship which pitted those clans against each other and armed certain clans to do the regime's bidding, takes the complete responsibility.

Besides, all the interclan fightings and issues where settled during the peace conferences. The communities took the option to let go any previous issues or gruges against one another, and opted to live in peace as neighbors and brothers.

Those agreements which were reached first in Sheikh Town, then Burco Town and last in Borama, are the reasons why today's political parties are able to peacefully compete across the nation in peace without fear. And political freedom and freedom of speech is why anyone can say today at the Fagaraha Khariyadda. That is the difference.

With regards to clans, unfortunately, this is an aspect of life which is built into the DNA of the Somali person. Until we have something (i.e. political party, state etc) that is strong enough to replace it and provide "identity, security and financial security, & sense of pride and belonging"... then Clans will feature a prominent role in the society.

Nevertheless, I am in complete awe & surprised (in many ways smiling at) how far Somaliland has come thus far. No matter how much the politicians sledge at each other whatever including throwing deregatory terms to certain clans, the people seems to have matured and are able to absorb it without any affect.

Overall, Somaliland is moving forward, the hurdles you see are a sign of progress. You won't make progress unless you have strugled through difficult choices and went through tough times that will shape the person/nation that you will become tomorrow.

Suldaanka · October 30, 2017

I beg to differ about Muse Biixi. He may have a colourful past, including playing some part in the Habar vs Habar wars, but who else didn't play a role on those clan wars? Probably not a single politician or military person at the time is clean about the Habar/Habar wars. It was essentially a political war convoluted into clan wars.

Those wars and those who took part shook hands and let the past go.

The only difference between Muse Biixi and others of who also took part in the Habar Habar wars, Muse Biixi is a man with a mission. I think you can listen to Prof. Samatar who summarised him perfectly. He has traits of a leader. I don't have any issues if he were to become a president. In fact, all 3 political parties are capable of leading this nation forward.

Coming back to the current battle for the Presidency of Somaliland. I think Somaliland's political system is shaping up to become a small version of the US system. It is been in the making for the past 2 years, the campaigns started back in 2015 and continued all the way to today. The political parties are using every trick in the book to try and win voters away. Even going as far as "Fakenews".

What you have today, is just a political Gamemanship. You have the Kulmiyes accusing the Waddani's of being pro "Unity" when in fact that is far from truth. And the Waddani's bringing out Muse Biixi's roles in those clan wars.