Somaliland elections could be postponed, again if UAE get it's way.

[galbeedi]

Somalialnd president Ahmed Siilaanyo is in Dubai since June 16 for health reasons. No one knows how severe his condition is, but last week in order to lay down the fears of his declining health , he did send a 19 second video recordings to reassure the people.

 

While the health of the president is the main underlying issue, reliable sources said that Mr. Siilaanyo want the election to take place as agreed upon by the commission. In fact, he was not happy about the last postponement of the election due to drought issues. According to these sources, due to his health and age issue, Mr. Siilaanyo eagerly want the conclusion of the election in order to retire and deal with his health matters.

 

In late spring , a former Rayaale government minister and member of the Wadani party central committee, came to this town to meet party members. One of the Awdalites who is chair of the Wadani party in this province called me and asked me if I was willing to chat with man and ask him few question . I said fine , and after he finished his party business , i sat down with him , one on one, and asked him few questions about Somaliland and the election.

 

During our conversations, I did ask him about president Siilaanyo and his health issues. Being an astute politician he said , " In our tradition it is an fair to insult or degrade someone due to his health failing and senior age "(Dhaqankeena waa ceeb in qofka lagu caayo xanuunka iyo da'ada labadaba), but we are all aware of the wrong people who are abusing the trust of the people, and everyone expects this election to clear the slate.

 

Now, Ahmed Siilaanyo want to retire and finish off the election., and the opposition and even the ruling party also want the election to happen.

 

So, who is trying to postpone the election.?

 

There are two groups.

 

The First group is the incumbent ministers and the kitchen cabinet members who have seen the writing in the wall. Except few pockets like Gabiley, where criminal elements rule the city, and even deny opposition people from entering the city, or holding a rally, the people of Somaliland are sick and tired of the corruption, inflation and the looting of the public purse. The people are ready for a change.

 

This group do do not have the means or the political environment to postpone the election at this moment, but they might be useful idiots that could be used to further the interest of a foreign power. They could be the vehicle or the instrument to postpone the election.

 

The second group have the financial means to postpone the election by using money , fear, constitutional means, or bloodless coup that could divide the people and give them time to regroup. This group is the UAE.

 

Now let me uncover the plot that could be used to postpone the election.

 

Ahmed Siilaanyo used to fly London and his mouthpieces aides used to say that he went for extended vacation. This time, everyone including Siilaanyo, is admitting his health issues. In fact, he might not come back back from Dubai to Hargeisa to preside the cabinet. All influential ministers are in Dubai for weeks and are monitoring the situation. The inner tribal circle, the foreign minister, and the finance minister are all in his bed side.

 

In this scenario, Mr, Siilaanyo will retire and will be declared incapable of dispensing his duties as a president in late September or early October before the election could be held in November 13, 2017. This unexpected health issues will immediately create constitutional problems that might throw everyone off balance. C/raxman Zaylici, the weak and slow talking vice president will take over as a president. Since he no longer will be the vice presidential candidate of his party , Kulmiye, must find another person to fill the vacant position and President Zaylici must find a new vice president.

 

The ruling party has to regroup. The Hargeisa oligarchs will parrot that the election can not be managed without clear stable government and will demand extension. After the Dubai bribe is distributed to the Guurti and the parliament, Saylici and the tribe will demand the extension of the term due to the unexpected retirement of Ahmed Siilaanyo. AS usual, the Guurti will not give them three months or six, but fourteen months and will set an election day of around February 2018.

 

In the history of modern politics no vice president have ever run the same post after the man who was the president either vacated or concluded his terms. Only a weak man without ambition like Saylici would agree or campaign to run the same post twice with two different leaders. To be fair, MR. Saylici was sidelined by a palace run by a family members who do not care about constitutional duties. Well, he could get a chance to take a god revenge of the " tribal entourage" running the government like their family business.

 

This might lead to gridlock and confrontation between the opposition who were campaigning and was trying to unseat this government for eight years.

 

Now, as I said, the current ministers and their party does not have the public support to postpone or even convince the public to anything, but people who are pushing this gridlock or scheme are the UAE. They and the Siilaanyo ministers know that their political power is about to end, and their Berbera port project might not survive after the election. The opposition do support the Dubai World Port (DWP) take over of the seaport, but they are against the military base and the hasty manner in which the deal was consumed. The fat boys of the gulf are impatent and are afraid that due to change of government they might lose the so called military base.

 

My sources told me that they are very desperate to extend the term of the Siilaanyo government through another year until the Yemen war is concluded one way or another. For the UAE, without the base the commercial side of the deal is useless. Last week Farmaajo has demanded to see the document of the deal and many people including former prime minister Cumar Sharmaarke are in panic, and the same could be said of UAE.

 

Also, we are aware the difference between a deal negotiated to gain a cash and the one by the representatives of the people. Ahmed Siilaanyo want to spend the next few years in Dubai with his daughter and his family. The greedy Hargeisa boys think that they could take a bag full of money and disappear. This Arabs sold their brothers in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere for the last 25 years so they could keep their crown and money, and for a somali nomad to think that they could join the pillaging , murder and profiteering of the middle east without paying a high price is a delusion.

 

Since, Siilaanyo could not do , they decided to retire him and use Saylici for one more year.

 

 

I did ask a gentleman who knows Siilaanyo very well about this story and he said , " If he flows these gulf boys and the hungry entourage that only cares about filling their bags , Somaliland will lose and a civil war will follow", he continued, " there are no reasons to postpone the election, and if this unthinkable scenario takes place, get ready for civil war".

 

Biciidkaan dilidoono.

 

Despite the danger and the disaster this plot could bring to Somalilnd , certain groups are vying to be the vice president. One group is the male members of the Siilaanyo clan family who want to finish the term and keep Saylici in short leash. The second group is the female members and the immediate family of Ahmed Siilaanyo. This group want to install finance minister Samsam Cabdi to be the vice president on the belief that she might sideline and put pressure Muuse Biixi if he agitates.

 

Soomaalidu waxay tidhaahdaa:

 

Nin Soori Qaaday, waa Nin Seefi qaaday.

 

We all hope that Ahmed Siilaanyo come to his senses and resist the urge of the gulf boys and the corrupt oligarchs of Hargeisa. This election was already postponed twice.

 

[ibrahim hirsi]

why is the UAE so obsessed with somaliland ma dayn karaan can they just leave them in peace .xax.

[Saalax]

If another extension happens it will be the final in the coffin

for the Somaliland project.

[Suldaanka]

Galbeedi,

 

If I were you, I would carry a sack of salt with me whenever I am conversing the so called "insiders". 90% of what they tell you is how they wished events would transpire. Only 10% is based on facts on the ground.

 

Having said that, Somaliland's elections are on course. If you haven't realised by now, Somaliland charts her own course. Remember some months ago, the burohaha from the so called International Community goes as far as penning an open letter to Somaliland and how they were disatisfied with the postponement of elections from March to later in the year. Well, had it been anywhere else, they would have succummed to the pressure but Somaliland is different. We simply do not give a flying fig what those IC say. If they want to help us, fine, we say thank you. But we won't accept the strings they want to attach with their small help.

 

What many people here forget is that, holding free and fair elections is rooted deep inside the DNA of Somalilanders. From the years of SNM until today. The notion of a strongman holding on to the power seat just simply doesn't exist. Every Somaliland leader can be replaced at will.

 

Therefore, rest assured the elections will take place, and we are not doing this to impress anyone. It is an election for Somaliland, by Somaliland.