A conversation with Dr. C/raxman Baadiyow, and a message to president Farmaajo

[galbeedi]

He is the first elected president in a decade, Somalis every where cheered this milestone that have not been seen for a decade. In fact , since the overthrow of the Somali civilian government by the army in 1969, it is the first democratic ballot by A Somali parliament, even though it"s members were selected in tribal power sharing scheme called 4.5.

 

When he landed at the Mogadishu airport, hundreds of thousands of people, from all walks of life, descended to the streets of Mogadishu for celebration. The talk of the people is a decade long anarchy is finally going to end as everyone expected. There are high hopes for the people yearning for rule of law and government. Folks, I am not talking about president Farmaajo, but the equally celebrated and welcomed presidency of the Carta government led by president C/qasim Salaad Hassan.

 

Today, after 17 years of that failure, Somali parliament have elected a new president with high hopes and expectations. People across the country have welcomed this election as a milestone and change for the right direction. Emotions are a well known trait of the Somali culture , but this welcoming emotions of the new president seem to be genuine.

 

So, we dicided to put aside the early emotions and get in to the real business. in order to sort out the real issues facing the new president in the coming months , we did try to consult an experts mind who was not only one of the architects of the Carta government that failed 2000, but he is also a good observer who have witnessed many government failures and adventures in Somalia and in particular Mogadishu.

 

Unlike many scholars who sit, evaluate and write from the ivory towers (Nin Daar Ku Jiraa Daruur Ma Arkee), Dr. C/raxman Baadiyow is one of the handful Somalis from the diaspora who went home , spent time and resources, and built lasting institutions like the Mogadishu university. He is a pragmatic politician and academic who understood and studied both social , governance and political issues facing Somalia. He not only talked about the real issues, but went home and contributed in a meaningful way. I consider him a nation builder who risked life to alleviate ignorance and teach a new generation of Somalis in the dark days of Mogadishu.

 

In a round table setting , me and another group of local Somalis , have sat down with Dr. Baadiyow to discuss the road ahead and the implications of the next few years for the new president. We all agreed that president Farmaajo is a populist who tapped with the huge disappointments the Somali people have felt with the out going government of Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud.

 

There were many questions, but I will focus those concerning governance, institution building ,competence and region geopolitics. It will not be word by word or actual transcript ,but a summarized version of the conversation according to Galbeedi.

 

Round Table: How about these public campaign promises of Somali presidential candidates promising to fix the nations problems in today's environment?.

 

Baadiyow: First of all, the president can not do any thing by himself. He needs to outline his program and implement his well defines program. Traditionally, a president sings, modifies or rejects programs prepared by his technical team like Prime minister , ministers or public institutions. In order to achieve his goals he needs a competent team to organize and implement his agenda.

 

RT: As you have seen in 2000, C/qasim failed despite the out pouring support from the Somalis, is there any parallel between him and Farmaajo?

 

Baadiyow: when C/qasim landed in Mogadishu, the opposition was weak. We told him after he landed in Mogadishu, to go directly to Villa-Somalia, which was occupied by a few militia, instead he went straight to a Hotel near the old Mogadishu district. It was the first act of his failure. He started with a Hotel and finished with a Hotel. It was the first indications of his failure I wrote in this pages long ago about Muuse Suudi saying..Arreey Haday Bir noqotana waa ka leexahayaa, Haday Bac noqotana waa bujihaynaa(the bold are mine)

 

First, it is clear the parliament have voted for change, but there is also another fact which clearly indicates that some of the vote was more likely against Hassan than for Farmaajo. Second , it will will be difficult to live up to these unattainable expectations without serious work and cooperating efforts by all Somalis. Some times , those same people who are showing their emotional support, will be the first to demand his ouster, if he does not deliver.

 

Finally, the best indications of the failures of Somali presidents are: they always choose someone who is less competent of himself in terms experience, ability, competence, stature and leadership ( mar walba waxay soo urursadaan cid iyaga ka hoosaysa). They do not want someone who is more competent or would shine brighter than them and take the spotlight. leaders talk about building the army, police, public service, tax collection and so on, but these things can be built or organized by competent state institutions not pronouncements or trusted individuals(government is a modern institution, and it needs highly trained and competent people to implement it;s agenda( hebel lacagta ciidanka ha qaado waa ni wanaagsane iyo wax la mida ma shaqaynayso) bold is mine.

 

Farmaajo can only succeed if the men and women he chooses to implement his program are more capable and competent than himself. He can choose his own office aides, but those who would serve and build the government institutions must be chosen by competence and merit.

 

RT: what is the first task of the president?

 

Baadiyow: he must choose a competent prime minster and give him the freedom to pick his cabinet and do his job. For the last eight years or so , a president from the Mogadishu area , usually picks a premier from the "D block" and quickly a triangle forms. The three angels of the triangle are the president, the Mogadishu business community and the prime minister. In order to set his agenda and isolate the premier, the president more than often, side steps the premier and connects his agenda with businessmen while ignoring the premier totally. If the premier tries to reassert his role and confronts the president, he is thrown out of the office with help of the business oligarchs and the parliament. That arm restringing continues and all important issues of the state is neglected. Jug meeshaada joog.

 

He must show reconciliation and good will through out the country. Good leaders bring harmony and reconciliation after civil wars or elections that divide the people. He must build strong and lasting institutions , and finally , must be transparent and fight corruption within the government and the system.

 

RT: what are the wrong steps that could hasten his failure?

 

Baadiyow: There are reports that the failed group of former governments, including Shariif Ahmed and even some members of the last government are trying to be the inner circle that are trying to direct his agenda, if that is the case, expect gridlock and competing loyalties. He was elected to bring change and usher a new era , but if he keeps the company of the old guard while giving a lip service for change, the euphoria of the public could disappear quickly.

 

RT: would you be willing to be the premier if the president asks you?

 

Baadiyow: of course, if the duty calls , serve , I must. Having said that , I would not be someone who would accept interference, corruption and quarrel. I will clearly tell the president that " I will serve and do a competent work and would not tolerate interference( Si cad ayaan ugu sheegi in uu hawshayda ii daayo, haddii kale imikaba aynu kala joona, ka dibna dariiqa mustaqiimka ayeynu qaadi).

 

RT: there is a lot of talk among Somalis about the presence of the foreign troops in the country and how to build a national army. What would happen if the foreign troops leave today?.

 

Baadiyow: if these forces leave the country today, Al-shabaab will take over immediately. The withdrawal has to be gradual and must be coordinated. The Somali National Army must be rebuilt and equipped, and only competent and credible institutions can achieve that. As we speak we are a long way from the point.

 

RT: how can the Somali state and people remove itself from the entanglement of the competing regional powers?, and what about Ethiopia?

 

Baadiyow: Ethipia already had realized that it can not occupy or control Somalia, and we Somalis can not continue the constant war of fighting them. Now , mutually , we must find ways to co-exist peacefully. The issue of Al-shabaab and security worries of the region is genuine and must be considers as such, so countries like Djibouti, Ethiopia and others in the region, believe Somalia is the place to stop and defeat Al-shabaab before it became a big regional danger and crosses their borders . Having said that, it is the Somali federal leadership and their regional allies who introduced Ethiopia and others to Somalia and would like to continue for different reasons . A leader must govern on the consent of the people and implement their legitimate demands. If you rely on the support of the public , they will in return demand justice, transparency, development and security. Leaders who can not deliver the public demand whether by incompetence or greed , usually find alternative sources of power to keep the in power. That is why Hassan decided to rely on them in his final efforts to keep power.

 

In fact, the idea of relying to foreign powers to keep the power was even used by Siyaad Barre himself. In 1987, rather than make a deal and reconcile with the Somali tribal insurgents against his government and keep out the Ethiopian influence , he made a deal with MIngestu Hailemariam in order to keep his power and eliminate the guerrilla movement. Mingestu did not stop the support of insurgents which eventually destroyed the country. The issue is legitimate leaders do not need the support of others to rule among their people.

 

Finally , the 30 million Somalis in this region of horn of Africa must find peace prosperity and trade with hundred million Ethiopians who are 60% Muslim and thrive. We must build our country and find ways to co-exist peacefully with our neighbors. A democratic and competent Somalia does not anyone to keep it save, but it's own army and people. I do not blame others for our weakness and inability to defeat terrorism and build institutions.

 

TR: how about the gulf countries and Egypt?

 

Baadiyow: Egypt have been using the Somali blood for a while. There are clear facts that indicate Egypt was one of the main countries that forced Somalia to wage the war of 1977. Because of the Nile issues, they have being pushing as to war for a long time. It was Gemal Abdel Nasser who convened the 1964, Cairo agreement which made the colonial borders permanent, yet they still kept pushing as for war behind the scene. If we have to wage war and shed blood, it must be done by our own decision, not by the proxy efforts of others. Why would we deal with leaders like C/caziiz SISI who is murdering his own people.

 

In my opinion , UAE ( united Arab Emirate) is waging a business war. They are playing different games but the crest of their interest is mostly business. When they supported SISI of Egeypt, they usually claim of their desire to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, but they were against the idea of Mursi and Egypt making Sinai a free port zone which could attract business around the world. With hundred million people and the tourism culture , Dubai and the frictional desert kingdom could loose both business and competition. They have been fighting with Djibouti , they destroyed Aden and many ports in the region. Their ultimate goal is to keep their business interest and eliminate competition( They do not produce any thing and anyone with nice ports and beeches can set up a free port..bold emphasis are mine).

 

So The Somali state must look it's interest. The middle east is in big trouble and things could get ugly. Iran itself is in turmoil. There is a battle between the moderates and the extremists who are waging wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and many other places. The moderates went the hardliners to leave Iran , fight these wars and eventually loose, so they could take the helm. They have also a large ethnic minorities that could explode any time. On the issue of Berbera, that port could thrive and succeed without the gulf money.

 

RT: how about corruption in the system and how to eliminate.

 

Baadiyow: fighting corruption and showing transparency are among the top issues facing every Somali leader. There is a lot of resources within the country. The Telecom companies in Mogadishu alone could provide the government millions of dollars revenues if collected properly. If you show the public transparency and hard work , they are willing to sacrifice their lives for the greater good.

 

TR: How about the Somali regional government and their efforts to build government institutions and deliver services to people?

 

Baadiyow:. The regional governments came from the international efforts to fix the Somali problems and force some form of regional institutions in the local level. Local people were expecting services and institutions, while some are better than others most have became a tool carried by the leader in his bag. Look at the South West regional state, it became a one man institution. If there is parliament leadership Shariif Hassan will be the one deciding, if there is a regional president, he will lead and only him, and finally, if there is presidential candidate from that region it will Shariif Hassan but no one else It reduced the whole concept of the regional state to one man. The rest are not that much different. Soon people will be demanding transparency and service delivery.

 

Rt: let us discuss some of the social issues . I do believe the Islamic movements and leaders have shown to be a weak link, that brought nothing but hardship to the people, so do you think that we must avoid the so called " Wadaad"?

 

Baadiyow: I do agree the idea of labeling people as " Wadaad" or oher names. I would like the Somali people being addressed as a citizen (Muwaadin Soomaaliyeed) without any names. Throughout the years we have seen people claim as " Wadaad" and then trying to run away the label for political expediency. Look at Hassan Sheikh, he was a member of the non violent movement Islaax, and in 2006, joined the Islamic courts and became those waging the war against The Ethiopian supported government. Now after he won the office, he became the closet leader of the Ethiopian government in order to stay in power, doing exactly the opposite of what he did when he was " the Wadaad". These kind of people are opportunists who could wear any shirt.

 

RT: how about the large number of Somali women in the parliament?

 

Baadiyow: Iy is a good step taken forward. There is no Quraanic or Hadith tradition that could deny women for position of leadership. If you compare where we were in Carta two decades ago , it is a good progress. With time there will be more changes in favor of women's role. There was this story about a Somali elder who after he has been asked to nominate a women to parliament, and he said , I would not be answering in the here after about a woman in the parliament (Adeer Qiyaamaha Bilcan ayuu Baarlamaan geeyey la i dhihi maayo). With education and time a lot will change.

 

RT: would you talk about social norms and the weakness of the public institutions.

 

Baadiyow: there is a huge difference between personal responsiblitis and social responsiblities. In the western societies, usually they do not focus on the individual level or his personality, what they emphasis is the larger socitial good of the public, like: do not steal, damage property, respect others and don not break the law ans so on. That is why the things the public share are working. On the other hand we we focus the person , how good that person is , or how is honest , decent and God fearing which are all good human traits, but what counts is what you contribute in the larger society. If you good that will serve you, your family or your here after, but what also counts are how you behave in public office, or issues that you share with others ( hadaad qof wanaagsan tahay oo wanaagaaga aad gurigaaga iyo shaqsiydaada la joogta aday kuu gaar tahay, laakiin mushtamaca wanaagiisa iyo waxa dadka idinka dhexeeya sida aad u gudato ayaa umdda wax ka bedelaya, hebel waa nin fiican oo tukada oo edeb leh , wanaagaaga gurigaaga la joojag, aniga waxa wax ii taraysa sida aad hawsha ummadda ka dhaxaysa u gudanayso).

 

If we are individually good by a lager numbers, why things that we share publicly are not working or in bad shape?, because rather focus on the social responsibility of the public at large, we are focus on personal levels, and most of the nations that focus on that issue have weak public institutions and systems. When we started Mogadishu university, we asked the students to pay a small amount of money to cover for the teachers, utilities and other services. We hired good and respected professors and told them that what ever these students could afford will cover your salary, so you must hold on your side of the bargain to show up o time and teach.

 

After while, some of the most respected professors, even some Islamic scholars keep showing up late or even missing classes , yet they did not know that they were earning illegal money( xaaraan in ay cunayaan oo wiilkii lacagta bixiyey aysan class kii imanayn ma garanayaan). So ,after while we took steps to deduct money every time they miss a class. Initially they were shocked ,but things got better. While these people were honorable and good individually, they lacked the larger societal responsibility, so we must put emphasis the larger social responsibilities than the individual ones.

 

That is the summarized version of the conversation. If there is any question we will pass to Dr. Baadiyow.

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

Some of the other issues that slip from my notes or got deleeted from my keyboard

are Somaliand and the Arab world.

 

Dr. Baadiyow said , At this juncture, Soaliland should not be joining the union negotiation until the south is stabilize and the Al-shabaab insurgency eliminated. It will not do any good to immerse themselves in this unstable environment. Having said that , he also said , " The Somaliland people have reached a stage where they will be willing to accept an olive branch from the south, in fact the people have seen high unemployment, large number of youth dying in the high seas and no major infrastructure to create an opportunity".

 

He continues , " the best way to get early traction and release the air from secession would be to appoint a prime minister from the SNM community, but knowing the mind of the southern politicians , they will not do that bold move"

 

How reform and change will come to the Arab world, I asked him?

 

he said, "we Somalis by far ahead of the gulf and other Arab countries, in fact, many of them will go through what we have went through for the last twenty years.". Traditionally , they always had bad leaders who do care about people, look at SISI, Mubaarak, Assad and others".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

I do not know what happened either. I saw the last post by Oodweyne, but did not see any thing until late last night. Also as soon as I log, my computer slows down..

 

anyway...

 

People are free to assume as they wish, but the fact is Baadiyow has unique prospective on some of these issue. Having met the guy made me a lot more aware and humble about the extend of the internal problems facing Somalia. He has personally witnessed the huge damage suffered by the Somali institutions and the way Somalis operate for the last two decades. The erosion of trust, accountability and transparency form the Somali public square is almost irreparable, yet all that bad experience he witnessed did not affect his human behavior.

 

I have been wrong many times, but I do believe that Dr. Baadiyow is among the few good Somali men and women who could help repair the Mogadishu quagmire. He will be ethical, truthful and will be transparent if we Somalis were lucky enough to have him as our premier.

He really explained the difficulty of establishing a credible institution. Look at Somaliland, after twenty years, there are no any functioning or credible institution. The mother of all institutions the parliament does not even have a mechanism to introduce bills and read through committees before voting. It did pass a draft bill that not even ratified by the other side. The ugly thing was that the parliament voted 145 to 1, that is a north Korean democracy where 99% of the vote is won by the dear great leader Siilaanyo.

 

On the issue of negotiations , I thing he is correct to manage one job at the time. Before any Somali leader would sit down with Somaliland, he must put his house in order without ignoring major life altering events. A Somali leader who achieves peace and tranquility in South Central Somalia will have more intensive to push his agenda. He will be able to put more pressure having the support of the Somali people and the respect of the international community. I just found out last month that in 2010, Shariif Ahmed gave $3 million dollars to Ahmed Siilaanyo, to use for the presidential campaign of Somaliand. Siilaanyo promised Shariif to start negotiations and bi-lateral contacts refused by his predecessor Rayaale. After the election, Siilaanyo began the negotiations. The problem was they went no where.

 

Mr.Oodweyne , I hope by now you realize that in these days , it is not even that difficult to convince somaliland as long as you have some meat. Baashe Morgan from Dubai, disbursed a very small amount of money and , by hook or crook, passed the Berbera base deal. Imagine , if a seventy years old grand father, member of Guurti , who had already retired and got nothing but his honor ,could sell his soul for $10,000 dollars , what do you expect from the unemployed politicians sitting Hotel Mansuur. The parliament and the Guurti will be taken care off, the business community will vote yes and for greater business opportunity, and what is left will be the poor public who are fed up with the system. If open debate happens and me any would square off to campaign for the opposite sides, I am sure you are going to loose.

 

Talking aside , the whole thing depends what these hapless southern elites do to clean up Mogadishu and surrounding area. We all heard from the news that president Farmaajo visited the wounded in Medina hospital and announced $100,000 reward without even consulting or studying the consequences of a hundred grand in the hungry neighborhood of Mogadishu. Soon probably everyone will steal a car , put some explosive ordinance and claim the money.

 

We will wait and see what Farmaajo does, but I do believe that eventually we the northern Somalis should go their and clean the house. This is the last chance for the southern elite to end the quagmire or else, the next election will be ,ABS " any body but southern".

 

 

[galbeedi]

In your earlier Scottish wannabe tread, you talked about "a toothless old lady sitting in dark room cursing the world as it pass her by outside of her window", I did ignore that label and decided to finish that debate since I had other fish to fry. now you event went further and went to the gutter ( Bulaacada) by comparing me even the worse kind of people. It is beneath me to drag women in this debate whether they are old, toothless or others who are unfortunate. I hope next time you will find a good soap and wash your moth before you get on the keyboard.

 

The only logical point that I got from this long drivel is that the people are different than the politicians. You also agreed that the Somaliland elites are not different than most African leaders and would make a deal if the price is right. In Hargeisa they have exchanged their peace for war for a few shillings.

 

On the other hand , I did not say that the people would sell their soul for money and join the union. I said , since they are fed up , an open debate about their future , featuring you and me you would loose. What does that mean?. It means that if we have to campaign for the heart and soul of the people in an open democratic debate. I am sure , you are going to loose. Here is why.

 

You agreed with me that the Somaliland elites are corrupt , incompetent and selfish men who keep putting the people in vicious circle of never ending game . We all agree that they will never tell the truth or explain what the future holds for thousands of youths who are being shackled by false dream.

 

No, let us talk to the people. I do believe the Somaliald public are much easier to convince about Somali union than the politicians without mentioning the gutter or women selling their body. The politician might take the money and then complicate things , or worse create wars or other evil things to keep the status quo. All the public needs is the truth and nothing but the Truth. If they are allowed to debate openly , their hearts could be won easily.

 

Last week a journalist by the name Colow was arrested in Hargeisa airport by just celebrating the victory of the new president. They have to keep him in a dark room in order to keep the light out. In North Korea and former East Germany people were kept from leaving the communist nirvana. If they opened the door people would leave in droves and find out what is on the other sand. so, they used to shoot those who were trying to exit. In similar but different scale , if Authorities and politicians in Hargeisa allow open and democratic debate, the secessionist agenda will be exposed. People will talk about misappropriation of public funds, the budget, the hundreds of young men dying in the high seas, the 75% unemployment and all the ills of the system.

 

 

I conclude that the people of somaliland will accept union without coercion and bribe, but genuine acceptance of reality and for the future, hence, they are much easier than the corrupt politician.

[maakhiri1]

I have been to Djibouti recently and felt very proud and emotional as Somali on the achievement they made, the progress, a lot of wealth created, (under great problem, no much resources produced) though they are led by a dictator, I ask myself, who is missing in the show, it is the the SOMALI republic.

 

For Union, or separation, both have merits, SL could be 1000s times better than Djibouti by going alone, at the same time with Union, and with a good governance, the sky is the limit for the united SOMALI federal Government. So without resorting to name calling, both of you could highlight, why the union or the Separation is better, and it is being LUNATIC, or FANATIC to stick to one state FOREVER, things can change.

[Tallaabo]

@Maakhiri1

said:

I have been to Djibouti recently and felt very proud and emotional as Somali on the achievement they made, the progress, a lot of wealth created, (under great problem, no much resources produced) though they are led by a dictator, I ask myself, who is missing in the show, it is the the SOMALI republic.

 

For Union, or separation, both have merits, SL could be 1000s times better than Djibouti by going alone, at the same time with Union, and with a good governance, the sky is the limit for the united SOMALI federal Government. So without resorting to name calling, both of you could highlight, why the union or the Separation is better, and it is being LUNATIC, or FANATIC to stick to one state FOREVER, things can change.

 

I think the best option is the one I have talked about before which is two independent states in a rules based confederation in which sovereignty is shared(like the European Union) in a lot of places like trade, immigration, fisheries, currency, passports, embassies, foreign policy, sport, religion, defence, airspace, supreme court, and even a common ceremonial head of state (like UK and Canada). Such an arrangement will get rid of the political problems of a full union but will have all the social and economic benefits of a single country.

[Tallaabo]

The only problem Somali politicians seem to have is a severe scarcity of imagination. Somalis could have avoided a quarter century of turmoil if our ignorant politicians had sufficient qualifications and wisdom.

[Che -Guevara]

Any political divorce should be final and uncomplicated. Any sort of confederacy will undermine Somali sovereignty as regions of Somalia might be tempted to demand special status.

 

There is no need a common market, shared passport or nothing of sort, just bilateral relations.

 

That's said, Somalia should and would always welcome every ethnic Somali and grant them automatic citizenship. And the pro-unity tribes have should a say in expressing their loyalty and decide their destiny.

[Saalax]

It is futile discussing Sland getting recognition one of the

reasons is majority of the communities that reside in Sland

won't vote for secession in the event of a widespread reliable

referendum held by the IC. It is a number's game at the end of

the day.

 

According to the British Somaliland population estimation this

was the breakdown each community made up of the population

as a percentage.

 

 

Borama folks - 7.0%

Hyena folks of Zeylac and Lughaya- 8.6%

The H folks of eastern Sanaag and Sool - 18.7%

The GX folks of central Somaliland and Sanaag - 26.5%

 

Total = 60.8 % of Somaliland, the groups that are more

likely to vote against secession in the event of a referendum .

 

 

That is why I believe Somaliland won't get recognized just

because a minority wants to run away from other Somalis.

 

Former British Somaliland 1944 population estimations

[galbeedi]

The problem about us the diaspora is that we always try to project our image of western style democracy we witnessed in our respective countries. In these countries including Canada, there were responsible government before Representative government. The Canadian dominion was founded in 1867, yet the constitution was repatriated as late us 1981. The most important aspects of these governments and the people is the rule of law. It is the foundation of the system. Every thing revolves around that. Rule of law coupled with economic prosperity is what brought many of us here . If the issue was just democracy, we would have immigrated to India, the largest democracy.

 

Oodweyn, you e keep comparing UK BRexit and other British grievances to the Somali nomads who are just getting by. They UK shares the EU with common market only, and the main reason for Brexit was the movement of the people. Even after the exit , the British will exist and thrive , although not as before. Even when they vote, everyone accepts that this vote was legitimate and according to the rules governing the country. How can enyone believe a vote managed by Siilaanyo and company.

 

Tallaabo, was talking about creativity, imagination and a new Somali confederate. In today's world, you do not need to re-invent the wheel. There are dozens of forms or systems working well throughout the world where people delegate power to local people, ether for geography, economy , ethnic, religious or other reasons. In all these mentioned nation, before embarking union or divorce, they established credible and strong institutions and rules to guide these agreements.

 

The SNM boys out of arrogance or delusional state of rejecting reality , see Somaliland much different than it appears in our eyes. Somaliland is peaceful compared to south central Somali, but it has huge lingering issues and even slow moving warfare in some eastern regions. Many Awdalites consider the system as temporary arrangements among the communities until we reach a better situation. That is why many consider tribal war as aggravating the situation and leading to anarchy. " Adeer Soomaaliland baan qaadi kari laanahay oo meel aan dhigno la' raadinaynaa ee ma wax kale ayaad noo keenteen", that was the words of the Sheekhul Beled of Borama , Sheekh C/laahi Jowhar ,when he heard about Awdal State rebellion. somaliland is fragile both in terms of institutions and tribal harmony.

 

Oodweyne, the so called Wabar issue was not successful , and it was not a well thought and well prepared idea. That does not mean it is dead . It could ignite any time if the environment and conditions present it self again with different people, who might have both the backing of the public and a willing foreign power to put fire on another peaceful Somaliland. So, If I were you I would not goad or push Awdalites . Just as Somaliland will not be forced by a barrel of the gun to join the union, you will not be able to decide the faith of other communities without their consent. God forbid if real secession comes, that will be a declaration of war,

 

Also, you keep distracting me about which Habro is more separatist than others. I did not mention "HY" or your other Sub group in my last tread. Do not worry, Saaxiib, no one will be associating you with galbeedi( Ma in la igu kaa ag sawiro ayaad ka cabsanay saa). during Rayaale regime, the east Burco guys were always accused of pro-Somalia. The Somali Shilling was the currency in Burco and everyone was expected to abandon Somaliland if Siilaanyo lost the election. I do mention this sometimes to one of my friends from east Burco, and he will jump and say " waar weligayaba gadhkaanu haynay oo dhinacaa waan ku adkeyn", the truth is always hard to swallow. So, let the record indicate that Oodweyne and his town are die hard landers. As for your "Djibouti, or Somaliland may begun to develop some kind of a “nativist itch” , I do believe the migration will be southward rather the north bound.

 

Hence, before we discus a confederation or federal union, both Somalia and Somaliland must establish rule of law, bring lasting peace, feed their people and then sit down. Only Then will the imaginations Tallabo talking about will develop. do believe today Somaliland is more fragile than we think, and for the last 25 years, Somaliland have never been challenged , never. I do talk people from Borama and even HArgeisa, and every time I challenge them , they would say , "Waar meesha waba ma yaalaane nabada yar ayuun baanu ku Ilaashanaynaa". I do agree . Nabada inoo ilaaliya Inta Kheyr kale Imaanayo.

 

Finally, it all depends the environment and the conditions people find themselves. If peace comes from the south and Somali people intermingle , trade and feel harmony among themselves, it will be easy to talk.

[Saalax]

Oodweyne between me and you, you are the one living in denial.

Everyone knows who I am and where I hail from, that is the not

the point though. Sland is just a temporary interest but not

viable project in the long-run that is why some of those

communities will likely vote against secession. The irony is

the town whose name you use in the forums Oodweyne

threatened to raise the Somali flag in Oodweyne in 2014 if the

Kulmiye junta didn't stop trying to undermine Iro (head of

parliament speaker).As I said Sland is just a temporary interest

shared between the varied communities but not viable in the

long-run.

 

[galbeedi]

Saalax, someone doctored this table , I will find you the original table. The British Somaliland of 1944 was included Hawd And reserve. The 2001 census by the Ethiopian government was the Awdal districts in Zone as 480,000.

 

Lughaya disticts were in habits by both Djiouti and ours, Are you saying the Waraabe of Hargeisa are more tha Awdalites. No way.

[Saalax]

Galbeedi I am aware the Borama folks have large population

in Ethiopia and today make up the majority in Awdal. That is

because most of the Hyena folks made Aliyah to Djibouti

before and after independence of Djibouti , after that lots

of Borama folks moved in from the reserve area. Demographics

shifted.

[galbeedi]

Anyway I was talking about Faysal waraabe folks. Of course they moved to Djibouti in early sixties, but in 1959, or even 1961, election , they could not win and a seat was given to them without contesting..

[Saalax]

@galbeedi

said:

Anyway I was talking about Faysal waraabe folks. Of course they moved to Djibouti in early sixties, but in 1959, or even 1961, election , they could not win and a seat was given to them without contesting..

 

 

The chart says the Salahley folks were 6.2% of Somaliland

back in 1944 while the Borama folks were 7% . Keep in

mind the Salahley folks also live in Ethiopia in large

numbers specially in Daroor district, however the Borama

folks are much larger.