Welcome to the 2016 Somali presidential candidates, Part two...

[galbeedi]

Last week I did mention how fluid is the situation about the prospect of the candidates running for president . By now , those who have any political weight have already declared their intentions and the list of possible winners is shrinking.

This was the list of credible heavy weights last week:

 

Hassan Sheekh Mohamuud

Shariif Sheekh Ahmed

Cumar Abdirashid Sharmaarke.

C/weli Sheekh Ahmed

Mohamed Adbilahi Farmaajo

Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole

Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame

Faadumo Dayib

 

As we speak , the chances of many players have already diminished.

He might be making a lot of noises in the media, but C/raxman Faroole is no longer among those expected to make the final list. As I said before in this pages, Mr.Faroole is not liked by most Somalis and especially those in the southern part of the country consider him as a " Red Neck". I have no intention of explaining what that means in the Somali political arena, but let us just say that he could be considered as someone who is more than eager to advance the interest of his kin more than the others.

Also, the latest news from Garowe indicate that C/raxman Foroole is trying to take a seat from the higher chamber (Senate). That is a logical path for him and those who may only spoil the chances of others. When Cumar C. Sharmaarke declared his intentions , I knew Faroole had conceded and stood down for the prime minister. A well versed senior from Puntland told me that all politicians from that region including C/weli agreed to back the prime minister. There are also rumors that say the Puntland president might be a Damujadiid closet who favors Hassan Sheekh to win the seat. In 2012, C/weli Gaas and many other opposition members backed Hassan Sheekh against president Shariif Ahmed which in turn helped Hassan to get power. That vote from Gaas's backers was a conditional which guaranteed him for a prime minister. Actually , Mr. Gaas was not the only politician betrayed by president Hassan Sheekh. Conventional wisdom says that if Hassan wins re-election , his would be prime minister will be Mr. C/weli Gaas himself.

In the light of these reports, we should revise the list one more time.

President Hassan Sheekh Mohamuud

Prime minister Cumar C. Sharmaarke

President Sheekh Sharrif Sh. Ahmed

Mohamed C. Farmaajo

A/rahman C/shakur Warsame

 

As I said in the first part, being the most qualifies or the best candidate for the future of Somalia does not guarantee one to be president. I really do believe a guy like Mahamuud Nur Tarsan could be a good president and able leader who could fix some of the security problems of the country. He is the only candidate that addresses the issue of corruption and nepotism in the state bureaucracy and security. He was raised by the Somali state ( in orphanage) and has no tribal loyalty or allegiance, other than the Somali state and people. I wish him well. Having said that , it is very difficult for Tarsan to overtake two presidents from Mogadishu like him.

 

No one can ignore that President Hassan Sheekh has created a lot of distrust among the Somali public on the direction of the country. His actions or inaction has created a weak country flooded by foreign intelligence and NGO's coupled with criminal oligarchs. He does not want to tackle the issues that strengthen the state and the nation. Everyone is talking about the booming business of Mogadishu and all the high rise buildings that cover the landscape. Crime, contact killing and daily extremist insurgency are all cohabiting in the nations capital. That kind of environment or state should not be taken as normal or progress. In the early eighties and nineties , there were countries in Latin America undermined by drug dealers and local insurgents. Assassinations, drug killings and crime became the daily life of those countries. They were not failed states but functioning countries with quasi normal businesses opportunities for those who are involved in these crimes, but in the real world they were called " Narco States".

 

Presidents and local politicians were assassinated, police were used as a death squads and rich business oligarchs controlled the state and the military. I the same parallel in Mogadishu, where business is booming for the oligarchs and those connected politicians , coupled with corrupt gulf money laundered through politicians. Security contractors, NGO's and business oligarchs are all awash with money intended to alleviate poverty. With all that evil added with the killing machine of Al-shabaab , the Somalia that will be emerging from these chaos will be worse than the narco states of of Latin America. If we continue this path, chaos and dirty business money and insurgency will co exist , and the average Somali would have no say of the process of the elections or who should be running the government.

 

Former president Shariif Ahmed and the future.

 

He was the moderate voices of the Islamic court of Mogadishu in 2006. He was president in one of the difficult times of Somalia. For the first time in 15 years, the IC were able to pacify a city that lost law and order after the collapse of the Somali state. Unfortunately they appeared at the scene once a transitional government was selected in Nairobi, Kenya. They were a mix of Wahabi clerics who were hungry for power and small time religious courts formed by locals to fight back against bandits, thieves and warlords during early 2000. In an interview with a New York times reporter, dispatched from Mogadishu in late nineties , showed the future conflicts between Islamic groups led by Aweys and other politicians. In that interview, Aweys openly criticized democratic system of western governments and their advocates in Somalia as unIslamic. In that same interview , former president Cali Mahdi, said " we the politicians and the so called Islamic groups are both seeking to gain the power, they ( Aweys and company) want to you use Islam as a vehicle and we want to get there through elections". I did not even check that quote, it is still in my memory.

 

Those Somalis who were trying to avoid a conflict between the Islamic courts and the legitimate transitional government , wanted to find some kind of resolutions. On one had, you have a group who were able to pacify the nations capital after many years of chaos, but lacked the legitimacy of a recognized government, while the transitional government was the legitimate and recognized entity of Somalia. Those of us who were concerned with the conflict thought that these two entities could compliment each other if they compromise about those issues. A friend who was involved in the Islamic movements said at the time that " if these Islamic Courts make a compromise at this juncture of the Somali political history, they will save their gains and would run the country within ten years.

Rather than find common ground with the government, the IC were agitating for conflict and war. They did not realize by removing the Somali government from the scene, the IC will be directly facing the Ethiopian government who were trying to meddle the Somali state. A well known Somali philosopher Dr. Cumar Raabe said , "The actions of the Islamic groups brought foreign intervention to Somalia( Jabhaduhu Dawladii Soomaaliyeed ayey rideen, dagaal oogayaashuna qarankii ayey qaawiyeen oo baabi'iyeen, Wadaadaduna ( Kooxaha Dinta U ehel sheeganaya), shisheeye ayey ku soo hogaamiyeen" ) . As long as there was a Somali government, there were no chance of IC and Ethiopia facing each other inside the country. The unsophisticated and arrogant Islamic courts eventually ended up in the trap set up by Ethiopia. When the first skirmishes started in Baidoa and Hiiraan, I told some of those emotional IC backers that they will be defeated in weeks not months. Defeating warlords and local tribal militia is totally different than engaging organized states. The rest is history.

 

Former president Shariif Ahmed was one the leader who could not control or lead these groups when it was necessary to control. He was a weak leader who could not make the real decisions. He signed the same deal he refused in 2006, three years later after many thousand have died. He and the IC were accusing the government by aligning themselves with Ethiopia, but it was their actions that forced the government to seek help, yet after he became president, he flew to Ethiopia and accepted their help. He was the man who brought Amisom and others in the country. When C/laahi Yusuf was president, Villa-Somalia was guarded by Somali troops, but Shariif Ahmed replaced them with Ugandan troops.

He seemed to know his enemies well since they were his former comrades, but was unable to make any peace deals with them. The main reason he replaced the A/laahi Yusuf government was to empower him in order to bring most of the local insurgency under his control, yet , as soon as he was sworn, the insurgency increased and strengthened. He fought against Al-shabaab well during his term and were very proactive in his efforts to pacify the capital. Unlike president Hassan Sheekh, his administration looked like Somalia. His cheif of staff was from Galdogob, his spokesman was from Sool , his intelligence chief was from Galmudug and so on. It is one of the advantages of being in the Islamic movements who usually operate non tribal environment.

 

I would take Shariif Ahmed any day verses Hassan Sheekh, and I will support him if he wins the election, but I do not believe he should be the president of Somalia in 2016. There are many reasons , and the main ones are:

 

1-The Islamic movements must stand down.

 

There is no doubt the Islamic movements have the biggest advantages of any Somali organizations could dream of. They lack the tribal cancer . While the Somali saying of " religious men do not leave behind their tribe( Fiqi Tolkii kama jano tego) is still true in our country, the Islamic movements has the least of these tribal cancers. The only problem is they have replaced the tribal cancer with another uncompromising zeal of Wahabi doctrine that is more deadly than the tribe. In tribal societies , there is always someone to talk to resolve these issues. While Conflicts do happen , they always have conclusions or end game. In 1993, Claahi Yusuf and Mohamed F. Caydiid, (ahn both of them) signed a peace deal in Gaalkacayo, which lasted more than 20 years. In Somaliland it was the tribal agreement of 1993 in Borama that brought the peace. The SNM boys would tell you that the Burco conference of 1991 was the foundation of the Somaliland, but the truth is that conference brought nothing but wars and conflicts that raged for the next few years. Peace came when Ibrahim Cigaal, a democrat and man respected by his tribe sat down with other tribes and formulated a system that brought people together.

 

Shariif Ahmed might be a moderate cleric but, in the eyes of the Wahabis groups, he is not genuine enough. What I mean is : the time has come for Somalis to dislodge our self from these doctrine and the so called movements from our political landscape. There are two types of movements in these parts of the world: one is Wahabi , fueled by petrol dollars , specifically tailor made for the Saudi feudal monarchy. This sect is a perfect solution for closed and controlled monarchies of gulf, where open societies are threat to the feudal order . Where ever this sect is introduced chaos and mayhem follows. It is the deadly ideology of the Al-shabaab insurgents. The other one is the Muslim brotherhood which is forward looking , but needs organizational and modern skills to thrive.

The argument is that they both are foreign elements. In Turkey , they have Islamic oriented parties and government , but they follow their own Islamic traditions, local customs and modern Turkey centered system. You may cal what ever you like, but it is a forward looking , modern and nation building movement that is reviving peacefully it's long history and traditions through democracy and development. Just as you can not copy as a whole the western system of government in to the Somali way of life, you can not import sectarian Islamic movements based either in Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Also, we are not sophisticated enough to incorporate all these competing systems to the independent Somali nomadic life.

 

I conclude by saying that , in order to prosper and live in peace, let us go back to our traditional main stream Islamic ways of moderation, mercy and tolerance . We need the typical Somali Muslim , fulfilling his prayers, understanding our tradition and combining the modern way of governance. So, Shariif Ahmed would never have been at the center of Somali politics without being the vehicle of the Wahabis who were trying to gain power.

 

2- He could not defeat or bring the extremists to the table.

 

Two days ago mortar shells were directly fired to the residence of former president Shariif Ahmed by Al-shabaab fighters who seemed to be sending a message to his candidacy. He made a name for himself by being the leader who could bridge the gab, but history has shown that he could neither defeat them militarily nor bring them to the table. His former friends are emboldened by his opportunistic moves and would not rest until they take a revenge against him, so we do not want a leader who is playing chicken games against Al-shabaab.

He was also well known to tell every one what they liked to hear without taking strong position in some of the crucial issues. In fact, the Kenyans entered Somalia without his permission . When the Kenyans entered Somalia in 2011, his first reaction was to oppose and reject their moves, but later on, he was pushed to backtrack his stand and eventually accepted their presence.

 

Just like Hassan Sheekh , he also believes Somalia as a nation or it's leaders could not stand without others walking them as toddlers learning how to walk. Of course , a country that went through civil war and many other calamities like Somalia, needs as much help as we could get, but the countries priorities must rest with the leadership and the people to dig themselves out.

 

If you read some of the statements regarding former president Shariif Ahmed in the Wikileaks cables, you would be surprised that he is not only incapable leading in to strong direction, but can not even help himself. In his conversation with the under secretary of state for Africa , he is begging the state department to arrange scholarship and living space in one of American university. Here, we have a president who could not even pay or arrange himself a few semesters of English language school without the guidance of a foreign power. . In 2011, he spent in Uganda almost eight days , sleeping and staying in their hotels like some kind of a homeless person. I am not making this staff up, it is how this president behaved in difficult times.

 

Believe me, this generation of Somali leaders have probably came from the same generation of Somalis who have build nothing or had never experienced any thing great about their people and country. Regardless of how ruthless or dictatorial they were , I will take C/yusuf, Caydiid or Siyaad Barre any day against this hapless group of incompetent leaders. A former member of Somali revolutionary counsel, Ahmed Hassan Muuse, who is living a quite life in Burco , Togdheer--narrating his early years of the revolution---said " when foreign embassies or delegates send a telegram to meet us, we just dragged and dragged our feet, which took sometimes months", he continues, " because we knew they always wanted to force their agenda against our throat regardless of how we felt, but we held our ground". He also said we never dealt with NGO's in ministry level. Well, this were the proud Somalis of yesterday.

 

The presidency is not a family affair ( Qori isu dhiib ma ahan).

 

Marna Rashiid marna Risaaq, inta kae ma rootibaa.

 

This poem was proclaimed by Shariif Ahmed's community in the middle of sixties. But the big difference is those men the poem referenced were elected or appointed through direct elections without the presence of foreign powers or extremist insurgents. While it is important for the Mogadishu based communities to play important role in the rebuilding of the nation, the idea of rotating the presidency from Shariif Ahmed To Hasan Sheekh and back to Shariif, means nepotism at it's worst. The idea of keeping the power to Shariif and company at the expense of other Somalis is unacceptable.

 

In 2016, Somalia needs a leader with no packages, whether that is Al-shabaab, Islamic court, Damujadiid or any other names. The new leader should be just a decent Somali who did not create this mess directly or indirectly like Shariif Ahmed. On that and many other reasons , I do not think former president Shariif should be brought back ti fix a mistake he created years ago. Having said that , the Shariif is among those who have a higher chance of winning this election than many others. By the way, that does not mean he is the best candidate.

Having eliminated the Shariif and Sheekh Hassan, let us look the other remaining candidates.

 

Cumar C. Sharmaarke

C/raxman C/.shakur Warsame

Mohamed C. Farmaajo.

 

Since my last post two weeks ago, the chances of C/weli Sheekh Ahmed went down , while those from Farmaajo are growing. We have to wait and see for few weeks how Mr. C/raxman C. Warsame is faring in this battle. I did see one his campaign speeches and he seems to be well versed on issues of governing, accountability and economy. He is a man who have enough education on both world ( Aqoon diineed iyo mid maadi), and he is not related to Shariif and Hassan Sheekh which is very important in this election.

 

Before we discuss the chances of C/raxman Warsame and Farmaajo, I would like to address how our prime minister is faring in this contest.

 

Cumar C. Sharmaarke, the prime minister.

 

While his ancestral homeland is in Puntland, Mr.Sharmaarke was born in Mogadishu which makes him a local boy from the nations capital. Those who know Mr. Sharmaarke consider him to be as cool as cucumber. He does not have some of the weaknesses most Somali espouse in their daily interaction which is quick temper and emotion. One member of parliament describing him said: " Mr. Jawaari, the speaker, may got angry by some of the issues pushed by the government , and suddenly pick up the phone and call the prime minister", he continued , " knowing how the matter is delicate, he would ignore the phones for hours or so and then call him back latter after things cooled down". He seemed to be well versed the Mogadishu game which needs some skill .

He hails from a great family. His father was the first prime minister of the independent Somalia in early sixties. He was also the second president of the republic. Before his Assassination by his body guard, Somalia was a beacon hope and peace. The blood spilled by that faithful day of October 15, 1969, was the end of a good beginning for the republic.

 

On the other hand , he seemed to be a man of law energy.......................

 

To be continued. On the next segment we will finish the premier, C.C. Warsame and Mohamed Farmaajo.

[Holac]

 

Faadumo Dayib

 

This lady is busy building a fake profile using Western media. She is not the first Somali woman who run for President and quite frankly it means nothing to run for office in Somalia.