Welcome to the 2016 Somali presidential candidates, Part one

[galbeedi]

Here in the western hemisphere , we are all watching what observers call the election of the century in United States of America. For Somalis every where, there is another equally important election coming just a week or so before the American election . In 2012, at end of the transition period, everyone was expecting the emergence of an extraordinary leader to move the country forward from that difficult juncture. Whether by luck or design, we all got an ordinary president by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

 

While this president and his government put back the Somali map again in the eyes of the world, he lacked the bold moves that could have symbolized a new Somalia regardless of it's weakness. A great deal of progress have been made in Somalia in terms of government institutions and regional state formations . While pain staking small incremental progress could only be noticed in due course, bold national moves encourage the moral of the nation that was down for decades. He could have sent a notice to the Kenyans six months ago--in order for their farmers to prepare for about the incoming Qat ban---then pass the legislation and sign. It could have been a great land mark and legacy for the history books and we could have celebrated a victory against our neighbors for the first time in decades. . Who knows , it might have helped him to win the election, but as the saying goes, " no guts , no glory".

 

Although everyone proclaimed a national government with legitimate mandate and power to set it's agenda, neither the president nor his government could have moved any thing without the help of international donors and the united nations. The unending Somali quarrel could not have been resolved without supervision of the IC.

 

. While the outlook for the future is always expected to be better, the hardship on the Somali people is not over yet. Few months ago a man with conscience who visited Mogadishu and south central Somalia spoke about the sky scrappers towers in Mogadishu , the constant NGO and Mira Qat flights from Nairobi and all the foreign interests flooding the city. He said , the Somalia we knew decades ago, the people knew who was in charge of their country for bad or for worse, but today, no one knows who is running the country. He said those of us in the diaspora could not imagine how people are surviving in this inflationary environment. He said " Do not be fooled by the tall Mogadishu tall buildings, in fact the Somali people back home are suffering tremendously ,yet they are one of the most resilient people , especially those living in the south and around Mogadishu., they have been killed and bombed by merciless religious cult on one side and abused and neglected by the government on the other side".

 

I did ask him about the coming election and the chances of any thing good coming out this time . He said ," No one can predict about the next president, because those who are running and paying the bill might bring a new shining president ridding with a horse ( Waxaad arki ayuu yidhi , qof aadan ogayn oo faras lagu wado sidii Hassan Culusow)".

 

In this article, I do not want to concentrate on the merits or weaknesses of the government , but would like to examine the candidates and sort out the contenders from the pretenders. Two weeks ago , there was a press release by a group of candidates against the president accusing him of extending his mandate. Do not be fooled by the false unity or the solidarity of the opposition candidates, because each one is by his own Sultan( Keligii Suldaan).

 

here is the list of the " The counsel for change in Somalia".

 

1- Mudane C/weli Sheekh Axmed, Gud. Xisbiga Madasha Wadaniga, candidate for 2016

2- Mudane Cabdi Faarax Shirdoon , candidate for president, 2016

3- Mudane Cabdiraxman Sh. Maxamuud Faroole, candidate for president, 2016

4- Mudane Cabdullahi Goodax Barre.

5- Mudane Xassan Macalin Maxamuud, chairman of the Daljir party, candidate for 2016.

6- Mudane Cabdullahi Axmed Xuseen (Coonka) member of parliament.

7- Mudane Saacid Abdullahi Dani, candidate for president ,2016.

8- Hon.Cabdullaahi Ciilmoge Xirsi, chairman of Xiis party, candidate for president.

9- Mudane C/raxmaan C/shakuur Warsame, chairman of Wadajir party, candidate for 2016.

10- Mudane Cali Xaaji Warsame, Gud. Madasha Cadaalada & Hourumarinta, candidate for 2016

11- Mudane Maxamuud Axmed Nuur Tarsan, chairman f social justice party, candidate 2016

12- Mudane Ambassador Maxamed Cali Ameeriko, candidate for president, 2016

13- Marwo Canab Maxamed Daahir, candidate for president, 2016

14- Mudane Dr C/naasir Cabdulle Maxamed, (Gurmad) candidate for president , 2016

15- Prof. Cabdirahman Cabdullahi Badiyow, Gud.Xig. Xisbiga Madasha Wadaniga.

16- Mudane Salaad Cali Jeelle, chairman of democratic party, candidate for president, 2016.

17-Mudane Ambasador Eng Axmed Macalim Fiqi- Xoghayaha Guud ee Xisbiga Daljir.

18-Maxamed Cusmaan Caanooy (Barnaamij) –Kulan party chairman.

19. Marwo Faadumo Dayib, candidate for president,2016

20. Mudane Cabdirisaaq Waaberi, chairman national unity party, candidate for president, 2016.

21. Mudane Mukhtaar Caynaanshe- accademic, candidate for president, 2016.

22. Mudane Maxamed Cabdirisaaq Maxamed, candidate for president, 2016

 

Add this list President Shariif Ahmed and former prime minister Mohamed C. Farmaajo.

 

This candidates are as diverse as they come. Former presidents, prime ministers , ministers, educators, businessmen, women and politicians. Running for president is not the only way a citizen could contribute to the well being of his country. Some could join and revitalize the parliament, others could join the the public service or just be a voice for those who are in need. One must consider, the organizational capacity, financial backing and other necessary skills needed to win this unusual indirect election. Yet, we see everyone is jumping to the floor regardless of his chances.

Some do not even consider the geographical background of their opponents and the effects it may have on their chances. Three former prime ministers , all of them from Gedo region are running for president, don't they realize the duplication or the vote spilling their candidacies would create, which in turn benefits the man they are trying to unseat?. In another case, C/raxman Baadiyow and C/weli Sheekh Ahmed, two men belonging to same party, as the chairman and his deputy are also both candidates. Others are just disgruntled former officers of the state fired by the president, like Ambassador Cali Ameeriko.

In the late sixties of Somalia , members of parliament used to proclaim, " Ama la i dooray ama daadku i qaad", roughly means, either I am elected or will be swept by the current" . Even the last election of 1969, the political parties of the country reached around 80. Each one had name and flag, yet when the election was over , all of them except C/risaaq Haji Hussen, joined the winning party--the SYL

At this moment , it is difficult to predict those who have the best chances of winning the presidency, but, I would like to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Some are just spoilers who want to make statement , others want to use the election as an opportunity to be in the limelight for future positions, while others want to remain relevant and keep making noise. Especially the diaspora members who want to make a name for him/her self. Rather than learn more about the Somalis of today who are very different from the one we left behind decades ago, they want to start from the top.

 

Here are the pretenders who might not even get 5% of the vote:

 

Cabdi Farax Shirdoon

C/naasir Cabdulle Maxamed

Maxamed C/risaaq Maxamed

Mukhtaar Caynaanshe

C/risaaq Waaberi

Yaasin Mahi Macalin

C/laahi ciilmooge Xirsi

Canab Maxamed Daahir

C/qaadir Maxamed Cismaan

Saciid C/lalaahi Dani

Salaad Cali Jeele

Cali Xaaji warsame

 

Some of these candidates will probably drop out sooner than later , while others are just wasting their time and resources.

The real contenders who have both the means and the experience to hold the office are very small group. Some of the most qualified and experienced in the Mogadishu quagmire are C/raxman Baadiyow and M. Nuur Tarzan. This two men will be obstructed by two men from Mogadishu who both are presidents, so their chances of surpassing Hassan Sheekh and Shariif Ahmed are very slim.

Which brings us finally to the heavy weight contender:

 

Hassan Sheekh Mohamuud

Shariif Sheekh Ahmed

Cumar Abdirashid Sharmaarke.

C/weli Sheekh Ahmed

Mohamed Adbilahi Farmaajo

Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole

Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame

Faadumo Dayib

 

Some might be wondering why Faadumo Dayib is included in the list since she is a novice from the diaspora?, well, I will explain latter, but now let me analyze the real contenders. When most Somalis read the list, they just associate these names with individual contenders , assuming and calculating their chances. The fact is these names mean nothing, and instead the emphasis should be put on the larger agenda behind the names. On that note,excluding the outsiders, all these thirty or so candidates belong one of the two main groups. To simplify the list I will divide in to four groups.

 

A) Alla Sheekh

B) Damu Jaddiid

C) C.C. Sharmaarke

D) Outsiders.

 

Alla Sheekh was a moderate Islamic movement founded in the seventies In Mogadishu by a famous Sheekh called Sheekh Nuur Colow and others. Shariif Ahmed never had any association with the Wahabi influenced Islamic Courts union pushed by Sheekh Hassan Dahir Aweys and other hardliners, but since he was a Mogadishu area native , they recruited him as useful token in order to attract his clan members in the capital region . Many of the candidates in the list are a front for Shariif Ahmed and the Alla Sheekh movement, among them:

 

President Shariif Sheekh Ahmed

A/rahman C/shakuur Warsame

Ahmed Macalin Faqi, former national intelligence chief under Shariif

Mahamuud Nuur Tarzan

Hassan Macalin Mahamuud, chairman of Daljir party

Cali Xaaji Warsame, chairman of " Madasha Cadaalaada".

Salaad Cali Jeele, he is not Alla Sheekh but an associate of Shariif Ahmed.

 

All this members will eventually join Shariif Ahmed one way or the other.

Damu Jaddiid were also members of the Islah Islamic movement. When the war of the Islamic courts started , they did split from the non violent movement of Islaah and joined the courts. Unlike Alla Sheekh , this movement is influenced both financially and politically by foreign entities and governments, in fact , their whole political and economical infrastructure is based on foreign money from the gulf which enabled them to set up schools, charities and businesses. While Credit should be given by their resoluteness to stay in the country during hard times and build some institutions, their biggest weakness is they do not have the can do spirit needed to move the country forward In their whole life , they relied on handouts from others to do things for them, and that same mind set is the one crippling their ability to fix the security and other issues of the day.

At the moment, the Damu Jaddiid that was established as a movement is no longer there. Like most Somali political parties , they are one time use only. Most of the members are discarded either for tribal reasons or for their inexperience to take part in the state apparatus. Among the notables are:

 

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud

Farah A/qadir

A/Kariim Huseen Guleed

A/salaam Hadliye Cumar , not member, but an associate who was chair of UNDP mission in Somalia.

Mohamed Cumar Carte , a member and long associate of the president.

 

For four years, president Hassan concentrated his whole energy on how to win re-election. He even neglected the main issues of the state by manipulating federal states in to his scheme. It will be difficult to defeat him, but won't be impossible.

 

Please stay tune for the next part..... we will discuss the prime minister, the outsiders, Marwo faadumo dayib, the Gedo boys ,and the northern members in Mogadishu who are crying foul.