Professor Ahmed Samater, stay away from the political parties or you lose.

[galbeedi]

The Latest political speculation from Hargeisa is all about prof. Ahmed Samatar. Last week , as he landed at Hargeisa, he declared his intention of joining one of the political parties in Somaliland. By now, the good professor has realized that the keys to lead one of the parties is almost slim. About a month or so ago, he was offered the helms of the the UCID party which is on the process of becoming a fringe party. Almost Everyone knows the political dysfunction of UCID and it's unending quarrel between chairman Faysal Waraabe and Jamaal Cali Husein. On this disagreement , Faysal is the guilty part who changed his support about the candidacy of Jamal, which in turn made that party the laughing stock of the people.

 

Since UCID is dead, the only two options are the two remaining parties. When Samatar went to Somalilnd for the second time in 2014, there were a lot of tensions among those who thought to be the inheritors of the party. Muuse Biixi was expecting Siilaanyo to fulfill the promises he made in 2010. Ahmed Siilaanyo said , if I was elected, I will transfer the party ( markani waa markaygii, adigana waa marka xiga). Some of the wise politicians of West Hargeisa objected the idea of Muuse becoming the candidate of the party. They knew that this man neither had the temperament, the history or the character to lead Somaliland. In order to stop him achieving that goal, they recruited an experienced diplomat by the name of Mohamed Biixi Yoonis-- the chair of Darfur's United Nations mission in Sudan. It was during this fiasco that Prof. Samatar decided to not only join the Kulmiye party, but to take over the leadership from his quarreling nephews.

 

Ahmed Siilaanyo being an astute politician told him : "Anigu arrintaa aad wado waan kugu raacsanahay, laakiin abtiyaasha ayaa xisbigan isku haystee iyaga la soo heshii, hadday kaaga hadhaan anigu diyaar baan kuu ahay in aan ku taageero".

 

The good prof. did not know that the most famous word his maternal cousins always use in any political argument is that ( " Kaadi baan usoo cabnay ") . He did not know that Muuse could never even think about running for high office without Ahmed Siilaanyo falsely telling him about succeeding him after the end of his term. Also, Prof. Samatar knew that in order to win the contest , he must be prepared for tough fight including insults and confrontation with opposition political machine. We all knew that he would not stand his ground under constant smear of the Hargeisa campaign( Marka dhawr jeer la caayo wuu soo carari lahaa). That does not mean Ahmed Samatar is not tough. He is one of toughest Somali professors who would not give a damn to anyone, but the Hargeisa contest is a different tough.

" Habraha hadaadan qorshahooda aqoon iskama dhicin kartid, jiilka iska dhicin karaaye isaga oo kale ma aha".

 

Prof. Samatar has seen how his cousins became not only oligarchs and warlords, but out right anarchists in order to gain power, so he went back to his comfortable home in America. It could have been the perfect time to either lead or join the ticket. For the next year and half, a lot has happened. The unelectable Muuse Biixi threatened the old man Siilaanyo whose heath was deteriorating by launching petrol bombing at nights in Hargeisa for weeks. Siilaanyo did not want to preside any semblance of tribal civil war or any uncertainty during his term. He neither have time nor physical energy to confront Biixi and company, so he finally gave in to the demands. Ina Biixi became the candidate, but we all know that no one in their right mind will give the future to this man.

 

Samater to the rescue.

 

There were some speculation that Muuse is trying to unseat C/raxman Zaylici and replace him with Ahmed Samatar. That is the worst scenario for all involved, because Zaylici has campaigned and won to be number two rather seek the big job and replace Ahmed Siilaanyo. He has won fair and square and for prof. Samatar, to come all the way from America and take the seat from someone who had fought hard would be disrespectful and cheap move from his side. Do not even think about it. It is also questionable for a renown prof. like Samatar to join the party of the former army captain Muuse Biihi. Throughout the years Samatar spoke in great length about the leadership or lack of it about army officers who have neither the education nor the democratic credentials needed to compromise for the greater good.

 

If your main issue is, " they are my cousins and I will join them for better or worse", then I have nothing to argue with your moves. You told us through your political and cultural conferences that tribal loyalties are nothing more than lost cause for those who could not achieve success in their endeavors. One thing I learn by watching politicians and public figures is that usually they do not believe what they preach. Talking about justice means acting justly toward others; unity means reaching out those who hold different view than yours.

 

" Nin baa waxaa la yidhi marba doon degaysaa ayuu xamaantiisa saartaa".

 

I do not believe Samatar can rescue a party that does not have any new ideas to reduce unemployment , crate jobs or instill harmony among people. There are three or four reasons that Kulmiye wil fail regardless of who joins.

 

1- Change means democracy.

 

The biggest weapons citizens have against unresponsive and corrupt system of government is to vote them out. Renewal is always better, it is also a barrier against those who wrongly think to own the government that should be serving the interest of the people.

 

2- Somalis are not wired or organized for enduring legacy.

 

Somali Political parties are only means to gain power and are discarded after the end is achieved. UDUB , a political party Egal nurtured to eventually reach Boosaaso and Baidoa , was destroyed by Rayaalle and company after they lost the election. They never tried to revitalize this giant of a party that had the majority of the parliament. Rayaale kept hiding in Paris and watched from the distance as his party disintegrated. Now the same fate is waiting Kulmiye. Almost all of the founders and those who campaigned for the last election are no where to be seen. less than 10% of the cabinet are from the party. Ahmed Siilaanyo used Kulmiye to gain to the top job and moved on.

 

There is no one single heavy weight politician that is standing beside Muuse Biixi. There is no one from Awdal, Berebera, Burco, Sanaag or Laascaanood. The only thing that keeps some members is the government purse that is keeping them in line.

 

3-Neither Muuse Biixi nor C/raxman Zaylici have charisma or open personality that can attract people. Both have underlying temper issues that could explode any time. They might even clash before the campaign begins and spend a lot of time and resource to keep them together.

 

4-This government was the luckiest in the last twenty years. The livestock ban from the Saudis that crippled the economy for decades, was lifted in 2010, bringing hundred of millions of needed cash. donations were received from Arabs, EU, UK and others, yet that money did not go to badly needed infrastructure of public service sectors like water, health and rural development. Hargeisa itself does not have enough water before you even mention small towns and rural people. The only thing to show for it is high rise buildings and big villas in Hargeisa( Booli qaran) as was in Somalia in the eighties.

 

5- When their term ends, they had served seven years which is a term and half. It is unthinkable to let one African party to rule 12 consecutive years and expect things to remain open and transparent.

 

Finally , I would like to advice prof. Samatar to stay away from joining anyone of the political parties. Remember , if you join your anarchist cousins , you will be aggravating the issue and helping unrepentant former officer to dream the unattainable goal of a just leader. On the other hand, if you join the party of change Wadani, you could be helping democracy and the change people are yearning. By joining Wadani, a political party that is not controlled by your kinship, you will be reaching out to others and promoting diversity. Either way, you could lose the admiration and the support these Landers are giving you these days. If you abandon your maternal cousins and join Wadani, they will screen murder until cows come home, while the Wadani supporters and especially Awdalites who prefer the change would be shocked to see your subordination of lowly officer like Ina Biixi. In order to keep your aura of invincibility and public support, stay way from these political battles and help the contesting parties to respect the rules of the game and play a fair. Encourage a healthy contest

 

If you travel that slippery slope, you will lose. The people are seeking change and anyone who stands in their way will be swept. Also remember, the gloves will be coming of from our side if you enable the anarchists.

[Che -Guevara]

The good professor accuses the Southerners (namely D and H blocks) dominating the two highest positions. What will he say when all political parties in the North are run by the same clan.

[galbeedi]

If he remained and opposed " culusow" inside the parliament, he could have been a good alternative rather jump ship. deep down he knows.

[Che -Guevara]

It is hard to work inside Mogadishu, Hargeisa, though still tribal, offers a better chance.

 

[galbeedi]

You right. At least they do not blow you off. In Hargeisa , they say " Siyaasad looma dhinto",

 

We shall see next year if they have learned anything. I am one of those who think that the last election in Hargeisa was the one conceded by Rayaale.

 

Habruhu so far did not conduct fair election.

[maakhiri1]

First this Pro has been nothing but BIG FAIL when it comes to politics, he was better of being academic, which he achieved a lot, and should stay away from politics

 

Secondy, BEERKA JECLI Xaydha jecli does not work, if he ever committed to being politics, and now in SL, flying in, and running back to his high paying teaching job will not work, if he wants to do politics, must dig in, and stay there for years, therefore make a mark, not run away when things get hot or doesn't align with his overrated ego.

 

Somalis want some1 who can deliver, with actions, inspire , does grassroot work, not just usual Samatar talk of I know everything.

 

And thirdly, Why would any part give him a position , while as you put, Raggi kadida usoo cabey, asaasey, fadhiyaan? been there while that party has been through rainy days.

 

Mark my word, he will be bagging his bags and very soon running away from Hargaisa.

[ElPunto]

This guy is a hapless hypocritical nitwit. Just goes to show to never believe in any Somali politician especially one that cites his academic position as 'holier than thou'.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

i have a very good feeling samatar will join Kulmiye there is no space for him in wadani knowing the clan structure and allegiances his sub clan of the awdal major clan are all Kulmiye supporters, He to has much more better relations with the sitting government than the mucaraad , he believes he can adres the somaliland problems through Kulmiye but we shall see, he is much closer his maternal clan side of hargeysa and gabiley than to other clans samatar reps gabiley and gabiley is majority kulmiye we shall seee inshallah

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

its offical prof samatar joins kulmiye

there is no other party in somaliland as strong as kulmiye.

[galbeedi]

Muuse Biixi durba waxaad moodaa nin kalsooni badani ku jirto siduu u hadlayo.

 

If chairman Cirro does not start heavy lifting this Kulmiye coalition could win easily. I never seen Cirro criticize the government openly. When Siilaanyo was trying to unseat Rayaalle, he organized every Cali and Cumar who was disgruntled, he raised money and he constantly criticized the government.

 

Mr. Cirro does not seem to be a tough opposition.

 

Tollow ma Ahmed Siilaanyaa u ballan qaaday in uu hoosta uga gargaaro . Ninkan kurbaba ma hayso. Haduu nala tashan lahaa waan u gargaari lahayn.

[Tallaabo]

If Kulmiye wins the election without the professor, then Somaliland would be at the mercy of a loose Canon as its head. But if Samatar somehow gets real power, then things might not be that bad as Somaliland will have at least some brakes to rely on haddii uu seeflaboodku waxyaabo aan loo baahnayn ku dhaqaaqo.

As for Cirro, he failed as the speaker of the parliament and if he wins he will probably just waste more of our precious time. With our third party in disarray, Somaliland has no options, so I am just praying for a continued peace.