In order to win chairman Cirro must change both his character and strategy.

[galbeedi]

I the summer of 2015, elders from Hargeisa and Burco visited Borama. The only people they have met were Awdal elders and some of the local Suldans. They were envoys on behalf of Wadani party and it's Chairman C/raxman Ciiro. They solicited the support of the Awdal community in general through the elders. At that time a lot problems were engulfing Awdal region including the Wabar movement, the Siimoodi mountain looting of Siilaanyo and company and other undercurrents.

 

One of the elders from Hargeisa said:

 

" Waar niman yahaw wakhtigii Rayaalle madaxweynaha ahaa taageero buuxda ayaan idinla la garab joogsanay, idinkana maanta , tii mid la mid ah ayaan idiinka fadhinaa" .

 

Suldaan Saleebaan , who is among the oldest Awdal Suldaans said to the envoys:

 

" Will baa aabihii ku yidhi, Aabo dayrtan soo socota in aan guursadaan rabaa" , odaygii baa ugu jawaabay, " Aabo hadii dayrta barwaaqo timaado oo xooluhu dhalaan, waad guursan aniguna waan ku labayn, haddiise ay xaaladu akaato oo abaaro yimaadaan, iska daa in aad guursatee Hooyadaa ayaa khatar ku jirta ( waan furi)". Ma jecleyn hal haysyadan haweenks lagu dulmayo in aan soo xigto, laakiin ogsoonaada odaygani waa sideetan jir ku dhawaad dhaqankii hore ayuuna ka tarjumaya.

 

He basically meant that if things got for the better, we will all get what we we want including supporting the party, but if bad events continue to engulf us all , we might not even survive let alone share a political party. As we speak things are calm and the wind of change is blowing across the land.

 

In Somaliland, the Presidential system gives the leader an unlimited powers to set his own agenda. In fact , you could say that he has quasi dictatorial powers to hire and fire as he wishes, yet he was unable to push the necessary reforms to make the government institutions accountable and transparent. He could start small steps like electing city councilman in designated wards and zones (xaafadaha laga soo doorto) , while the mayor must be elected city wide. Otherwise you will have the same shenanigans and squabbles that undermine their effectiveness. The person is not elected by the ward or zone he resides, but he gets votes from the whole city by his own tribe who could vote from east, west, north and between to elect their own. As such , he is not accountable to the citizen. This is not a civic election as it should be. It does not need a rocket science to figure out this , all you need is to demarcate the city by a well know boundaries. Do the same formula for the parliament by dividing the provinces into districts. You can not continue to have someone cast a ballot from Zaylac to Dilla to elect these members.

 

Under Siilaanyo, everything is fragmented and tribal loyalties and nepotism have thrived. People are more polarized than ever before. The one good thing that Siilaanyo did was his decision not to run another term. It may be small step in the developed world, but in this region of the horn of Africa and the Red Sea, it is a big step in the right direction. No one is stepping aside regardless of the circumstances including Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud who neither reformed the electoral system nor brought real meaningful security. Indeed we must welcome the departure of Siilaanyo, and the time has come to get someone who speaks for himself for better or worse. "Odaygana hantaaq intaas ayaa ugu filane meelahaa ku xanaaneeya".

 

For the last two weeks, chairman C/raxman Cirro, spent in Washington, Minneapolis, Ottawa and Toronto as the host of his party in North America. He was welcomed at the state capitol in St. Paul , MN and greeted in the chambers of the Canadian parliament. As a customary , he also met certain officials from the state department and U.S congress. Outside observers point out that chairman Cirro presented himself not only a calm and well respected leader , but also a leader in waiting. Having said that, being cool and collected might not be enough to win elections in Somaliland. In order to win, he must change both his character and the overall strategy to win the next election.

 

Before we examine his character, let us first indulge the strategy needed to build a coalition and win the election.

 

Strategy # 1, Awdal.

 

So far he has extensive support in Awdal. Yes, he is gaining support from different sectors and communities, yes he is the preferred candidate among the people, but that does not mean it could remain static. If he does not take concrete steps , that support could change or evaporate any time. So far I did not see within the Wadani party many Awdalite political heavy weights. He did not gain anyone from the members of the " Wakiilada" from Awdal, despite their displeasure with Siilaanyo government . I understand that throughout the years, the current government was using the public purse to reward and punish friends and enemies which makes it difficult for people to openly oppose it, but , I believe a lot could have been done to attract able members.

 

In his latest visit to North America, the Awdal diaspora members of the Wadani party have shown their strength both in Minneapolis and Ottawa. In both cities , they presented a well organized inclusive party that is looking to the future. Part of the success was the segment of the Awdal community that has shown the vocal support of the party , are among the best educated, urban and sophisticated community. The vice Presidential candidate Mr. Ahmed M. Seed who was born and bred in Borama, hails from that community, yet that is not enough to win in the election. Mr. Cirro must cast a wider net to gain as much as possible of Awdal residents, while keeping the strong support base that founded the party.

 

Regardless of what people say about the number of eligible voters in Somaliland, the fact is the official number never have been that huge. The average vote for the last four elections never passed around six hundred thousand people. In some cases, almost less than the 50% of those who registered voted. In the last presidential elections , there were a lot of fraud especially in Togdheer , home province of Ahmed Siilaayo. In 2010 , only 538,246 people voted. More than a million were registered. There is a huge difference between eligible voters and registered voters who were given voting cards just few months before the election. Looking these data, if mobilized and fraud is minimized , Awdal could easily reach hundred thousand voters or 20% to 23% of the vote. Include that the Awdalites who reside Hargeisa and other places. Add that to your supporters in Hargeisa, Sanaag, Burco and your home base of Berbers , you could win easily.

 

 

 

Appointing few so called advisers of education or similar portfolio would not cut it. The Awdal people are sick and tired of couple of tokens used in their name. If this party want the support of Awdal people , it must show a real agenda and a platform of development, political reform and clear picture that contrasts the old policy of the Siilaanyo government. The Awdal contingent must be the forefront of the election and party platform. Campaign managers and party bosses must be added. I know that the " reer galbeed" are not overly ambitious or vocal , but in order to make them an integral part of this party, concrete steps must be taken. The party must openly state their stand on the crucial life changing developments which include the building of local ports of Lughaya or Zaylac. So far nothing tangible have been heard from the leader of the party. .

 

To achieve these Awdal targeted changes , Cirro and company must think outside the box , so does the Awdal people.The so called Awdal politicians must come to the for front and help bring the change people every where are yearning for. So far his actions regarding Awdalites is merely tentative. Maybe he feels little bit guilty by the way he undermined both Rayaalle and the Udub party . Everyone would have preferred a full blooded UDUB leader either from Sanaag or Togdheer, especially the honorable bearded guys but, sometimes you must accept the hand that has been dealt to you and move on. He is the best option in the field. The man of change , who could have done well for all concerned , is Jamaal Cali Xuseen, but it seems that he have to wait for now.

 

Strategy # 2 , bring back Boobe Yusuf and companyd .

 

Boobe Yusuf was among those humiliated by Siilaanyo through his nepotism and family run television and the ministry of information. Boobe thought that being appointed a minister of the government meant having authority among his subordinates and managers. Having served the nepotism infested Somali government, he should have known better. He fired one of those boys who lived in the kitchens of the palace, only to be told to rescind his decision. When he was called at the palace , the loser he fired was already sitting in the couch. Since Boobe is a principled guy, he stood his ground and made the firing official.

 

Siilaanyo accepted the firing but , he hired back the guilty man as his spokesman. Boobe resigned before he was fired by Siilaany. .Folks that is the moral foundation of the Siilaanyo government. Boobe was one of the prominent members of Kulmiye who joined the party. Last month Siilaanyo added him among a bogus listed of so called " Ictiraaf Raadin' committee, and subsequently, Boobe resigned from the Wadani party accusing them of incompetence and mismanagement. If it were up to me, I would have kept Boobe no matter what. He is one of those guys that should be on your side when you are going to battle. He is not only a principled guy, but he is the last intellectual and artist among the Habro. He is the conscience of what those people stand for. Regardless of what happened , go and get him aboard.

 

also, bring aboard those who were unjustly pushed out from the corrupt Kulmiye party when Muuse Biixi was crowned without contest. Among them is Mohamed Bihi Yoonis .

 

 

strategy # 3, reconcile with Faysal Waraabe.

 

No matter what they say , personally I always liked Faysal Waraabe. He may speak in hyperbole sometimes, but he is not Munaafaq". Siilaanyo and Rayaale would have clashed long time ago without him being a neutral party. People may say that he lost the election twice but, the fact is he was not expected to win either one of them. A sitting president and a guy who lost with few votes were battling for the last one. certainly he could have won this one if he was allowed to contest with his party intact.

 

C/raxman Cirro must remember that he run and won the seat as Ucid and through that party, he became the speaker. The Wadani party was the incarnation of Faysal's UCID party. Hirsi and company destroyed both UCID and UDUB. How else can one explain a party like UDUb who has 38 seats in the parliament as we speak , had suddenly made to disappear from the map. You may open new parties, but a party that has the majority of the parliament can not just disband and fold. That is the legacy of buying and selling the parliament and all rule of law by Siilaanyo and company.

 

Chairman Cirro must swallow his pride and reconcile with his old friend Faysal Waraabe. On the other hand , if Jamal Ali and company could not muster a wining strategy , they must try to build a winning coalition with Wadani. A show of force from the east to west will eliminate all the false ambitions Siilaanyo and company put in the head of Muuse Biihi.

 

Strategy # 4, Show new vision and future.

.

Some among the Duriyada will always be recycling and keeping alive the SNM movement and their sacrifices. Of course they can have that part of history , but also they must be told that the world have moved and the events of thirty years ago is part of history . In order to build a modern institution, better economy and inclusive and lasting peace a new model must incorporated as you have shown in your Minneapolis event. The most prominent community in Sannag have came out in show of force for the first time in the history of Somaliland. They live in Laasqoray, Badhan, Hadaaftimo, Dhahar and Ceerigaabo. They must be accommodated and shown the respect and honor they deserve , before they embark a separate agenda.

 

You must show people that Muuse Biixi should not be allowed to finish the disastrous second term of Siilaanyo. You must say loudly that democracy , rule of law and communal harmony will be endangered if we all allow Ahmed Siilanyo to hand pick a loose cannon like Muuse Biihi. You must tell the world that the government is not a tribal rotation ( ma aha Hagbad marba Nin Qaato"). In the last election, people voted with their emotions and chose to revive the past by electing Siilaanyo, now the time has come to look for the future and forget about Siilaanyo and those he surrounded himself including Muuse biihi. This election must be between the continued policy of Siilaanyo or a new beginning.

 

Strategy #5, the diaspora factor..........continued......

 

part 2

[Saalax]

Interesting analysis. We shall wait for part 2.

[Barwaaqo]

Galbeedi

 

Oo Samo ku waar baad qaadaysaaye; Sow adigaa karay midhaheedii lol, markii horaba may adkayn.

[galbeedi]

Barwaaqo, mararka qaarkood far waa weyn baan u baahanahay si aan u famo waxaad ujeedo.

[Holac]

^^^ Barwaqo always speaks in cryptic code.