Somalia envoy Michael Keating is talking tough, can he prevail?.

[galbeedi]

Michael Keating of Great Britten, the new United Nation's envoy to Somalia has a long resume of managing chaos , nation building, humanitarian aid and conflict resolution issues. He served as United Nation's Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan as well as Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator. In other words, he is not just a UN bureaucrat thrown in the middle of Somali quagmire.

 

 

 

While United Kingdom trying to establishing business ties, such as Som Oil company and others, their main concern is security and terrorism. Mr. Keating having spend a long time in institutional nation building and aiding the needy. He probably already have noticed useless unending Somali politics with the ultimate goal of zero sum game. He had personally witnessed the rivalry of, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Pashtuns of Afghanistan to get a glimpse what is a head of the Somali conflict.

 

 

 

In order to set his agenda, he started a tough confrontation with regional leaders and Hassan Sheekh himself. The president was told to stop the excuses and implement the constitutional road maps and enhance the security. He told Ahmed Madoobe,---the former colleague of Hassan D. Aweys, member of Al-shabaab and eventually joining the Raascaambooni group founded by Sheekh Hassan Turki--that he should think himself as the leader of provisional " Maamul" of Jubba, not the leader of three provinces. Having couple of thousand militia and backed by Kenya will not legitimize Madoobe without broader consultation of the local people.

 

 

The envoy also realized that the activity of these regional " Maamuls' are pushing the local populous in the hands of Al-shabaab. In Shabeelaha Hoose, people are uprising and resisting the domination of Galgaduud transplants who are acting like occupiers. During Al-shabaab's reign of the region , every Somali who owned a farm or land confiscated during the civil war got back, thanks to harsh justice of the group. I remember a local man who traveled to Janaale, in 2011, to find out about the fate of his family's farm. Since Al-shbaab were ruling the area , they took the farm from the occupiers and given back to him. That is why the extremist groups are popular with indigenous people. They believe that through those groups issues of land , farm and property could be regained. The same issue could be happening in Jubba region. It seems Me. Keating is sensing that issue.

 

 

Mr. Keating also reminded the Galmudug leader that their " Maamul" is only a name, and they must bring peace and reconciliation to Ahla Sunna and others in Galgaduud and surrounding area . He also warned him about orchestrating anymore confrontations with Puntland . No more war in Gaalkacayo.

 

 

With all these encounters, the one he had with C/weli Gaas of Puntland was the toughest one according those who attended. C/weli tried to stick with his guns on the issue of selecting parliamentary representation by district and rejecting the modified formula of 4.5. After tough exchanges , the envoy threatened C/weli by withholding of development money and other incentives provided by the UN related agencies and countries. Finally Mr. C/weli reminded the envoy that these are the decisions of Puntlander including elders, civil society and politicians. To make his point , he assembled those three groups and they all spoke with the same voice.

 

 

Among these groups , the political one led by Cali Haji Warsame and guided behind the scene by Faroole got the upper hand. According to a Puntlander friend who has the ears of what is going on in Garoowe, C/weli was always had close contacts and communications with the Damjadiid boys. As recently as the summer of 2015, he was on board on the issue of 4.5. When Hassan Sheekh announced that general election of one man one vote will not be taking place in Somalia due to the current circumstances, C/Weli never objected or raised his voice. So what changed suddenly.

 

 

First, According to reliable people, last year , there were an indication that Hassan Sheekh may leave office and let a new leader immerge for the change that needed to happen. If Hassan leaves , it is going to be a well contested election since the incumbent with an office advantage won't be running. By standing for another term, the president changed the political landscape for all, including C/weli of Puntland. In the current system of selecting leaders , those with deep pockets can only prevail, and Damujadiid are getting huge bags of money from many fronts.

 

 

Second, C/weli has to play the right wing isolationist card in order to fend off and survive the impeachment ploy orchestrated by Faroole. No doubt Faroole was a master player of the Somali politics and during his reign in Puntland , he got his agenda through the USC dominated federal government. Now , Faroole through Cali H. Warsane is pushing Gaas to tow in his line. This warsame guy had already started campaigning as soon as he was appointed a minister. If you remember, a doctor by the name of Gaboose, started campaigning and preparing himself to replace Siilaanyo as soon as he was appointed interior minister, and kept unswerving questions about his intensions. Hirsi Gaab, tired of raising these issue just after the election, and fired him immediately. C/weli has done the same thing and fired Mr. Warsame from education ministry after his plan was became apparent.

 

 

Now, Faroole and Warsame warned C/weli of accepting the conclusions of " Madasha wada Tashiga". As we all noted, he formally accepted the Kismayo memorandum of understanding. What remained in Mogadishu was just the signing of the document. Since he is blindsided by astute politicians guided by Faroole, he had no other choice than to appoint Cali Warsame, the man he fired last year , to lead the political panel that met Mr. Keating. If he accepts the deal, he will be impeached by the regional parliament which he doesn't have much support. For him the only thing left for him is to place himself on the right side of Faroole. He even went further and want to separate from Somalia it self , just like our friends in Somaliland. Some people might be surprised, but the idea of Puntland severing ties with national government was raised many years ago by some Puntlanders who were disillusioned with the way the Mogadishu based USC was behaving in early 2000. They were worried that their leaders were spending most of their time trying to gain power in Mogadishu rather than building Puntland. I can tell you that in those years , I met many who were contemplating separation.

 

 

Well, that was some fifteen years ago. Today the landscape is different. While the weakness and instability of the national government is apparent , the Puntland of today also has it's shares of weaknesses and dysfunction. The creation of Galmudug is changing it's earlier outlook, while discontent and local uprising is brewing in Boosaaso and Bari. While things were tough in the past decade, Puntland governments , like all other Somalis, did not advance democracy and institutional based governments. Yet, I do believe that without Puntland there will be no one to challenge the Mogadishu status quo. There is no one to oppose those who act that Somalia is only Mogadishu and the surrounding regions. Without Puntland acting as the opposition, Damujaddid will follow their whims to create their own image of Somalia, which is unacceptable for those who are seeking just and balanced state.

 

 

In conclusion , there is a great deal of unknown political maneuvering that is going on. I will also admit that it is hard to gage the real issues behind C/weli's surprising moves. Maybe he is trying to calm down the emotions of the public that is unhappy about the 4.5 , or he might have sensed some sinister moves from the federal government. The one thing that can not be ignored is if Somaliland and Puntland both refuse to take part in the 2016, election, then that government will have series credibility issues to present itself as national government. It could e the government of Southern Somalia.

[Asad Ahmed]

Yes,the gov of southern somalia,i wish our politicians in Mogadishu were wise enough to declare their own country the republic of southern somalia just like south sudan.i will welcome them.

[Che -Guevara]

[xabad]

<cite>

@Asad Ahmed

said:</cite>

Yes,the gov of southern somalia,i wish our politicians in Mogadishu were wise enough to declare their own country the republic of southern somalia just like south sudan.i will welcome them.

 

^^^ Secessionist detected.

 

 

[Miyir]

Micheal Keating follows his past ancestor's footsteps, he makes decisions without considering the consequences of the natives who have to deal his poor decisions, he is guaranteed to have a rich life somewhere else. those who support or against him today are missing the big picture. We will see where it's going to End.