The Marka Caday saga of Amison explained.

[galbeedi]

I would like to give you some updates about the situation in Marka Cadey Minan Aw Cismaan. As you may have already noticed , I do not follow the general narrative of Somali politics, or the way people in the government explain the events of Somali war against Al-shabaab. Last week the Amisom contingent, along with the Somali army, left Marka without notice. Al-shabaab immediately took over the city. Here in SOL , I speculated few theories about their move, among them that the African forces, probably were not paid of their salaries. well, some credible sources confirmed that the Amisom forces were not under the threat of any attack from the enemy, nor the issue was about salary. Most of people may not believe , but the truth is the Somali army are always deployed in forward bases to protect the African forces in the case of an attack from Al-shabaab. The Amisom forces usually patrol with mechanized vehicles and with minimum of a battalion forces to comb certain villages and streets, but after the night fall, they all come back to their fortified bases.

 

To explain the issue better, let us take an example of the American forces in Afghanistan. While these Americans are armed with modern weapons, they do not sit in their bases like a sitting ducks to be targeted by the Taliban. Not only they engage the enemy with their patrols to seek and destroy hideouts , but they have forward operation bases manned by a platoon of 20 or 30 soldiers. This forward bases are look outs for the movements of the Taliban , especially in the mountain terrains. Some times these small platoons may engage in firefights with the Taliban, and usually they can hold their ground . If they are overwhelmed by huge army of insurgents, they would request rapid response teams.

 

In the Amisom case, we found out that the Somali soldiers, really do most of the heavy lifting when they are embedded with African forces. They do not only act as forward bases against Al-shabaab, but they do really protect the Amisom forces themselves. Most of the heavy weapons, armored and mechanized vehicles are controlled by the Africans. When they move for operations with their heavy weapons and accompanied by Somali forces, Al-shabaab usually do not engage them to fight, but abandon to the bushes or to next empty town.

 

Now in Marka , the Somali soldiers were not paid for four months. After inquiring about their salaries for months , they finally fed up and left for Mogadishu. Since the Africans do not have Somalis to protect them in their bases, and seeing the faith of the Sawahili Kenyans in Ceel Cade, they decided to abandon their base and relocate to thirty kilometres from the town toward number 50. As of today both the Somali soldiers and Amisom returned to Marka without engaging any Al-shbaab.

 

In Ceel Cade, Gedo, the Kenyans were about 120 men or a battalion. A day or two before the attack, the Somali forward base was abandoned by the soldiers after their college's were abused in other parts of Gedo by the Ethiopian forces. The Kenyans never sent a recognisance or " ilaalo" to check the movements of Al-shabaab. Like a sitting ducks, they were sleeping in their bases as usual , while expecting the poor unpaid Somalis to protect them. They were attacked before down. About 97 were killed, two were captured , while a dozen were injured or run for their lives. All of their armored vehicles and guns were taken by Al-shabaab.

 

This constant events about Amisom and their cat and mouse moves, illuminate a pattern that can not be ignored. African troops with their mechanized weapons and fortified bases could easily capture towns and do some patrols and head back to their bases. They are not equipped to do every day intelligence gathering and the movements of local insurgency. They have no idea what is going in the country side, villages and towns. The only way they can secure the whole country is to deploy two thousand Africans in every town and village. That is about 100,000 foreign soldiers. Also, the source told me that the Amisom soldiers, do not cry for their missing payments, because usually they get their accumulated payments as big lam sum every six months or so.

 

As some people said before, this battle should be fought and won by Somalis themselves. Give the Somali soldiers the necessary resources and let them fight. To achieve this goal , you need a new Somali leadership with different priorities than the current one. We can not recycle these same group of leaders and expect different results. If we continue these same strategies, expect another ten years of unending games.

[Mooge]

galbeedi, the country's enemy is corruption, both moral, religious and culture. we have become animals and we deserve what we get niyoow.

 

it is not far from the truth to tell you that Qoslaye is trying to extend his term, and the Marka fiasco is part of his term extension plan. as anyone from mogadishu UNUKA clan would tell you, alshabab and qoslaye have a mutual interest relationship. there are middlemen from qoslaye's clan who are part of alshabab and work on many projects closely with the government agencies. they negotiate on many many things including election moves, bombing targets, assassinations and what cities to capture and when. walahi dad badan ba modaya inay sheko baraley tahay, lakin as the NISA guy from the airport proved, the enemy is within, at the top and at the bottom. it is very very dead country with no hope.

 

[cadnaan1]

galbeedi there is also another theory which explained why alshabaab only stayed there for 3 days and left without fight.

 

waxa la leeyahay qoloda shabaabka waxay u baahnaayen dekeda marka oo ay wax kala soo dagayeen marka heshiis ayaa jiray oo ayaga iyo amisom /so called somali army.

 

 

[cadnaan1]

 

this pic was taken when amisom returned to marka look at the so called somali army macawiisyo iyo dacas ayey wataan xitaa uniform ma haystaan

[Tillamook]

The naïveté of my SOL colleagues is unrelenting, to say the least.

 

Al Shabab is nothing more than the armed wing of Damjadiid(The corrupt cabal that surrounds Culusow who arm and use Al Shabab to further their warped and shortsighted political objectives)

 

C'mon guys, get with the program!

 

[xabad]

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@Tillamook

said:</cite>

The naïveté of my SOL colleagues is unrelenting, to say the least.

 

Al Shabab is nothing more than the armed wing of Damjadiid(The corrupt cabal that surrounds Culusow who arm and use Al Shabab to further their warped and shortsighted political objectives)

 

C'mon guys, get with the program!

 

I disagree.

 

They may collude but they are still mutually independent entities. There is no way the foreign intelligence agencies snooping wouldn't have gotten wind of Culusow's double dealing.

 

The collusion is mostly down to the opportunistic, feckless and cowardly nature of zoomalis.

[somalee]

You really want Al-Shabab defeated? Cut off their financial flow. A lot of business people are forced to make payments to Al-Shabab through intimidation and threats. Even some government and NGO workers pay a fraction of their salary to Al-Shabab. This is common knowledge. How do you stop that and guarantee the safety of these contributors and their families? Tough..

[galbeedi]

Mooge, I would not go that far, but sometimes negligence and corruption creates an environment where Al-shabaab could thrive.

 

Somalee, You are correct. Business people are paying taxes to Al-shabaab, others are afraid of them. As I said before Money is fuelling their existence.