Why SL should engage with the South

[OdaySomali]

1. An existential threat

 

The reality is that today the very existence of the Somali people is at stake. And as Somalis, we 'Somalilanders' should realise that if we live in a house, in which the room next to ours is burning, we are at risk of the fire spreading to our room. If nothing else, the smoke will reduce our oxygen intake, if it does suffocate us. Yet, if the person with whom we live in a house prospers, we too are more likely to prosper. The question that remains is what do you do when the person with whom you share a house is not capable or willing to change his or her situation?

 

The Somali people’s existence is threatened in many ways and by many factors, which I will outline below:

 

– Incessant interference, meddling, sabotage and attacks by neighbouring countries, namely Ethiopia and Kenya, the former of which has occupied Western Somali lands and western portions of the Somali Republic, whilst the latter has occupied the Souther-most portion of the Somali Republic and annexed Somali territorial waters.

 

- Cataclysmic environmental degradation (deforestation, desertification, drought ultimately leading to hunger and famine)

 

– Economic underdevelopment (no jobs, no income, no sustenance, no shelter, no food, no industry)

 

– Social problems (qat addicition, FGM, tahriib, unemployment, lack of education, no healthcare)

 

etc.

 

2. Risks and opportunities for Somaliland

 

Somaliland is peaceful, stable and there are functioning government institutions and all these things deserve applause and encouragement. And although Somaliland may not be facing the direct security issues that the South faces, Somaliland is facing an existential crisis of its own, related to the threats I listed above (environmental degradation, economic underdevelopment, social problems + political limbo). In some areas the current Somaliland leadership has not delivered social, political and economic development to its people or more importantly security (security is wider than just immediate personal safety). The ‘politicians’ use the issue of independence to distract the populace from the real issues of extreme poverty, hunger, disease, lack of education/health/clean water/roads/jobs/infrastucture/economic development. And independence is certainly not a panacea that will magicallt solve all these things.

 

One area where the Somaliland leadership has failed to deliver has been the lack of engagement, whether covert or overt, with the situation in both Puntland and South Central Somalia. Waxaa aad ka fursan waydo, horaa loo qabtaa, waa ta la yidhi, for there are many potential 10benefits from Somaliland engaging with North-Eastern and South-Central Somalia. I will explain how and why.

 

Let me assert that the current Somaliland strategy has not delivered social, political and economic development to its people. This is partly because Somaliland spends at least 65% of government expenditure on security, rather than other crucial areas relating to development and public services. What this highlights is that by engaging with and building mutually beneficial and respectful relations with the other Somali regions – Puntland in particular – Somaliland potentially stands to gain a lot by strengthening its security. In fact, Somaliland probably has more to gain from engaging Puntland/The South than it has to gain from engaging donors or foreign entities.

 

Don’t underestimate the potential wealth that lies in agriculture either, through production of tradable commodities, edible produce that improve nutrition and health and raw materials that can be processed for sale. Somaliland can tap into this resource by engaging with the southern regions. So call it enlightened self-interest if you like.

 

In addition, Somaliland and all Somalis alike are threatened by the arrogance, aggression and utter disregard and contempt for the Somali people and the Somali Republic from external actors involved in the Somali conflict and who seek to assert their authority over the country (namely Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda). This is a long term threat which requires a long term solution. It is a threat far greater and more imminent than any threat or petty squabbling from small Somali sub-clan rivalry. Demographics are against us, for we are only a small nation compared to the 100m Ethiopians next door who are hungry for land and resources, more so than your average Somali sub-clan or group.

 

To survive, to protect our land, our resources and our people we must work together as Somalis. This does not mean ruling each other or oppressing each other, it just means working together for danta guud and common interests.

 

Somaliland also faces threats from within the South Central regions of Somalia, from terrorists, militias and corrupt and self-serving politicians who will sell the whole Somali peninsula out to the highest bidder. The gravest and most costly mistake that Somaliland can make it to choose to not engage and not seek to influence events, situations (and entities) the outcomes and actions from which can immensely affect its politics, economy and security. Its ludicrous to further pursue a 'head-in-the-sand' policy. To stop the conflict in the South Central regions is in Somailand’s interests. To have strong relations with Pundland and other regions is in Somaliland’s interests. To work together to mutually beneficial outcomes is in Somaliland’s interests.

 

3. Let me not be misunderstood - Somaliland should exist

 

Let me not be misunderstood or misinterpreted. I am not calling for the dissolution of Somaliland or Puntland, I am not calling for Somaliland or Puntland to necessarily submit themselves to the corrupt and ineffective ‘government’ down south without undertaking due diligence, preparations and putting the necessary structures in place. Nor am I saying that the SFG parliament represents SL. I am just saying that working together we are stronger, politically/economically/culturally and militarily. And SL has so much to share with and learn from the Southern regions.

 

The mistake that was made was to base all the political and economic power in a specific part of the country, as this created imbalances and grievances within the country and later on led to conflict. What was needed was, clearly, local democracy and decentralisation. SL and PL can and should remain autonomous because, although their models have clear faults, they have shown that they have made local democracy work. If the Somali people want to secure, as you say, their safety, economy and future of their land they will need to work together, pool their resources and minds and re-brand the Somali name as a whole. I do not believe that we can achieve political, economic, military success as 50 small, weak and economically and militarily unviable ‘states’. We will only be dominated by our much larger neighbours, and the writing is on the wall.

 

4. Build on what exists and what works!!!

 

What we need is a consortium of the northern regions to creep southwards. Instead of waiting for foreign countries, SL and PL have shown what Somalis can achieve and they have a leadership role to play in stabilising the southern regions, they have much experience and knowledge to share. But you will note that I have not specified a system of governance or a political solution to the age-old Somali problem of power sharing. And I am not saying that Somaliland or Puntland can’t be autonomous, within a Somali union, to the degree possible. I genuinely believe that the Somaliland aspirations can be accommodated within the existing Somali Republic. There are many ways in which a stable bottom-up political system can be built up, centred around existing structures such as town, city and province councils based around urban areas, which can then form so-called federal unions. Of course existing regional governments such as Somaliland and Puntland will be at an advantage as far as governing is concerned.

 

5. A slippery slope

 

Haddii la aqbalo oo ay wax fudud noqoto in dalka marba qaybi iska go’do, inaga (Soomaali oo dhan) ayaa khatar weyn ku jirna, madaama:

 

1 – Mar hadii la kala go'o, gacalnimada iyo xididnimada way baabi'i, due to the passage of time (see Djibouti, maanta maba soo sheegato ama haybsato Soomaali).

 

2 – Dalkeennu ‘territorial integrity’ dambe oo sharciyaysan oo caalamka laga aqoonsanyahay/aqbalsanyahay lama hubo. Imikadan ayay Kenya baddeenna doonaysaa, dhulkeenuna wuu xigaa.

 

3 – After structural destruction and disintegration comes re-building. It takes a greater amount of time and effort to build something, than it is takes to take something apart. So SL may never achieve that utopian dream, it may never realise that vision which it aims for. Note: I am not talking even of tangible structural rebuilding (e.g. infrastructure) or building of governmental institutions. I am talking about building of links and relationships with foreign countries and the entrance and acceptance into international organisations. Having built those links and entered those international organisations, will Somaliland be a country that counts? Will Somaliland be a country that when it speaks its voice is heard? Will Somaliland be a county that carries political/economic/military/demographic weight? I don think Somaliland will be any of those (whereas a united Somali Republic would have a much better shot). And I am not saying that Somaliland can’t be autonomous, within a Somali union, to the degree possible.

 

4 – Fact: smaller countries are more vulnerable, economically, politically, socially and militarily. Again let me not be misunderstood, I am not calling for the dissolution of Somaliland, I am not calling for Somaliland to submit itself to the corrupt and ineffective ‘government’ down south, I am not saying that the SFG parliament represents SL. I am just pointing out the fact that together we are stronger, politically/economically/culturally and militarily.

 

6. Hadal haan ma buuxsho

 

Together we stand, divided we fall. Hadal haan ma buuxshee, all I am saying at the end of the day is yaan xidhiidhka la goynin ee ha la adkeeyo xididada Soomaalinimo, gacalnimo, ummad-nimo iyo danta guud oo loo wada shaqaysto.

 

 

[OdaySomali]

When I debate abandoning the independence agenda, I do so not because I think that a union with the southern regions will be immediately functional and beneficial, but because I can see what we can be and why it is important that we are united in the long term.

 

I am not talking about immediate economic benefits, but in the long term there are potentially many economic/political/military/cultural benefits and advantages that Somalis could realise if we co-operated and worked together.

 

These benefits and advantages I refer to are related to our population size and I shall detail below the ways in which Somalis would potentially benefit if we do not split up into a 100 weak and insignificant little ‘countries’.

 

1. Having a country with a larger population means:

 

– Your country represents a larger [viable] market as it has a larger consumer base which means that it is easier to attract foreign direct investment.

 

– Your country represents a larger [viable] market as it has a larger consumer base which means your domestic companies can potentially grow larger than they would be able to if your country had a smaller population, which in turn means they potentially can expand internationally and bring hard currency back into the country.

 

– If you’ve got a larger population you’ve got a larger workforce within your economy and this means that, all other things being equal, your potential economic output is higher than a country with a smaller population.

 

– A military is funded with the resources within that economy and military personnel are drawn from the populace within the country and this means that if you’ve got a bigger population this gives you a potential military advantage over a country with a smaller population.

 

– A country that has a large population/economy/military potentially has greater political leverage and importance in the world which means that (a) it is more likely to be able to form meaningful and mutually beneficial relations with other countries and (b) it is more likely to be able to project and defends its interests domestically, regionally and internationally.

 

2. Having a small country with a small population means:

 

– Your country represents a smaller [unviable] market as it has a small consumer base which means that it is extremely difficult to attract foreign direct investment.

 

– Your country represents a smaller [unviable] market as it has a small consumer base which means your domestic companies cannot domestically grow larger than they would be able to if your country had a larger population, which in turn means they will find it extremely difficult to expand internationally and bring hard currency back into the country.

 

– If you’ve got a smaller population you’ve got a smaller workforce within your economy and this means that, all other things being equal, your potential economic output is smaller than a country with a larger population.

 

– A military is funded with the resources within that economy and military personnel are drawn from the populace within the country and this means that if you’ve got a small population this gives you a military disadvantage over a country with a larger population.

 

– A country that has a small population/economy/military has less political leverage and importance in the world which means that (a) it is unlikely to be able to form meaningful and mutually beneficial relations with other countries and (b) it is unlikely to be able to project and defends its interests domestically, regionally and internationally. If you don’t get those things then you should honestly not be talking about politics.

 

But all that is theoretical, let’s talk about the real tangible economic opportunities and benefits.

 

– The southern regions have most of the estimated 8 million hectares of arable land in the Somali peninsula, able to grow a huge variety of crops – currently Somaliland imports agricultural produce from Ethiopia. SL companies could invest in the fertile regions in the south and transport the goods at cheap rates to the northern regions or exported abroad or processed and turned into consumer goods – without incurring import/export duties/levies/taxes.

 

– The southern regions have a larger population and represent a market to which goods and services can be sold, without incurring import/export duties/levies/taxes e.g. soaps and detergents from the detergents factories in Burao and Boorama, tinned fish from Berbera, furniture from Hargeisa, construction companies from Las Anod etc.

 

– Berbera’s deep sea port can be made accessible to and import/export services sold to the cities in the central parts of the Somali republic.

[OdaySomali]

[OdaySomali]

We have no choice but to change our country and our people because we have no other country and no other people. And I do not believe that The Great Dream is impossible at all. It will take a lot of hard work, dedication and skill but if hard-working, intelligent and like-minded young Somalis come together they can transform the country.

 

As for the situation on the ground, I choose to see the cup as half full rather than half empty. The reality is that half of the country is relatively peace and stable and has been for a long time. We can only move forwards. We must only move forwards.

 

I do not think that the political differences are insurmountable, but there needs to be a thoroughly thought out strategy of how these differences might be ironed out. I have been to our homeland and I have seen what the people want and what they are hungry for – its not politicians and divisive politics, its not foreign interests and foreign troops and nor is it war and chaos. What Somali people are genuinly yearning for is peace, development, education, economic opportunities and a better quality of life for themselves, their children, their parents and their families. And it is our responsibility and duty as Somalis to work for the betterment and advancement of our people and our country.

 

We must change the mentality and attitude of our people and cudurka qabyaaladda should, can and will be resolved. Qabiil is meaningless. A person did not choose the family she or he was born into. Nor did another choose the family she or he was born into. It was all pure chance. So to discriminate, differentiate or persecute a fellow Somali, a fellow muslim and a fellow human being – who just like everyone else is trying to get by and is searching for his piece of bread and his cup of water in this world – is utterly illogical, destructive and pointless. A person may not have chosen the family in which she or he was born, but she or he can choose the manner in which to behave and conduct him or herself. And, all people should treat others in the respectful, dignified and pleasant way that they would like to be treated, they would like their mother and father to be treated and their wife and children to be treated.

 

We have no other country. We have no other people. We must re-assert our independence and reclaim our dignity, lest we cease to exist as a country and as a people.

 

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now that you and I, and many other Somalis around the world are yearning, striving and working hard for the betterment of their people and their country are not alone.

 

There are many Somalis who have rejected the status quo – who have said no to war, no to anarchy, no to famine and no to division. There are many other Somalis who want development, education, peace and enjoyment for their people. Inshallah we will be successful. And we must be successful because there is no future in living in the past, no joy in despair, no happiness in misery, no peace in war, no dignity in disgrace, no honour in shame, no enjoyment in suffering, no order in anarchy, no wealth in destitution and no success in failure. Dagaal wiil iyo gabar kuma dhashaan, ee way ku dhintaan uun. We have been the 'failed state' of the world for far too long. We must put that reality in the dustbin of history.

 

We are Somalis. Somalis of the Somali Republic. The Somali Repiblic of the Somali Peninsula. And we are known the world as such. We have no other country. We have no other people. We must re-assert our independence and reclaim our dignity, lest we cease to exist as a country and as a people.

 

[OdaySomali]

The floor is open for comments

 

[xabad]

Cool story Bro!

[YoniZ]

Odaysomali, I agree totally with what you have passionately advocated. However, I also believe this came 15+ years late, as it would have been an ideal thing in mid/late nighties.

 

The is no higher moral ground for SL & PL to bang on. They had their opportunity, to do the right thing and, save the nation from the warlord polititions in the south.

 

Guys like Egal and Yey could have (if they wanted) saved the nation in its darkest days. But, they became greedy men, blinded by the zero sum politics of the geeljire qabyaalad.

 

Instead of leading from the front, they cawardly have chosen to sit behind the illitrate Gadhcas and appease them with short sighted politics based on reer hebel maxay dakane naga qabaan.

 

That is a lost opportinity, SL could not get recognition and PL could not succeed in dominating Somali politics. Now, they are as mentally and morally bunkrupted as the their brathern in the South.

 

So pls, keep off that bulshit 'we can be the saviours' aside, and let as work all (SL,PL & South central) in equal capacity, to make this unfortunate nation heal, and move forward to take its rightful place in the world.

 

The best place to start with is to get rid of that Geeljire supperiority crab mentality.

[Alpha Blondy]

the easiest way for SL to get recognition is by attacking Garowe. SL should then attack the rest of the former Somalia and take it all.

 

did anyone come across Nicholas Kay analogy of the situation in Somalia? funny stuff. he said 'Somalia' is like a house without a ceiling. LOL.

[Tallaabo]

Mr Oday, your points are valid but it is better if you share with us ideas for practical solutions to the many challenges Somalis face today.