thefuturenow Posted February 19, 2015 How can HSM play this game without strengthening one of his two major rivals? How can he weaken both clans at the same time? Any ideas? P.S. I will send him the best responses Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tillamook Posted February 19, 2015 Ha ha ha So now the mighty and formidable Damjadiid juggernaut is reduced to soliciting political advice on the Internet, eh? Saaxiib, Culusow has played all his usual cards in Galgaduud when he sent the warlords who wreaked havoc in the south back to the central provinces to establish--by force--a federal member state that falls within the reach of Damjadiid's ideology. However, like his previous attempts to use Barre and Madoobe Nuunow to distabalize the Jubaland and Southwest states respectively, came to naught-- Qeybdiid and Goobaale will come up short as well. Therefore, our dear president is screwed politically and all that is left for him to do now is to sit on his hands,like a student in after-school detention, in a corner until 2016 when his forgettable presidency will come to an end. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dabrow Posted February 19, 2015 I believe this issue concerns the next president, Abdiweli Sh. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thefuturenow Posted February 19, 2015 Till, The 2016 story is already written. And no one is going to defeat the "anarchists" as XX calls them with guns. We can put that strategy to the side. The rest of your spchill is old "I hate HSM" story. Give us ideas ninyow. How can this man weaken HAG and PL on his way out? Dabrow----kkk. Go home ninyow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Che -Guevara Posted February 19, 2015 <cite> @thefuturenow said:</cite> Till, The 2016 story is already written. And no one is going to defeat the "anarchists" as XX calls them with guns. We can put that strategy to the side. . Mooryaanimo is strategy now? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Xaaji Xunjuf Posted February 19, 2015 Guys let me tell you what is at stake here. Hassan sheiikh mahamoud and his Damuljadid party have no idea how to solve the mudug dispute. Hassan is focusing on Hiiraan and middle shabelle state where the unuka clan will come on top as the leaders and Junior partners the Hiiraan Inhabitants. Hassan his clan are also very suspicious of the Habar gangster clan in the central regions,because they will use their state to get leverage in Mogadishu politics. He wishes to keep the pirates at bay and the same with the anarchists in Galguduud he wishes to keep them away from him he to remembers how General caydiid holed his kin up in Karaan district in the 1990s. You can compare it much to ISIS versus Asad and Turkey's role. Turkey is against Asads regime its also against the Kurds and its against the ISIS So if ISIS and Kurds fight , just watch from the sidelines. Cadawgaga cadaw lugu beeg bay Somalidu tidha. Every one knows Galmudug and Puntland will never agree on Mudug he will just say from Mogadishu Goofkina ilaashta, but practically it will not his problem. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RedSea Posted February 19, 2015 How about not taking any sides or playing games with Somali lives. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thefuturenow Posted February 19, 2015 XX, How can it not be his problem? He has to sign off on a Central State. That state must be either 1.5 or 2 combined states. I think the safer strategy is to keep north Mudug in PL. This is because then it will only be a political problem but PL already controls that area. But if he agrees to a full Galmudug state then physical control of Mudug will cause trouble. Either way, there is no winning this one. Che, Are you a pacifist or just not paying attention? RedSea, No sides taken. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Che -Guevara Posted February 19, 2015 No sides taken? no shiit hehe. Future....Guns and anarchy haven't brought peace to Mogadishu for 20 plus years. If any group insists on staying in power through anarchy, Mogadishu and Somalia at large will suffer. It looks like you are more for agenda of few men who use the ignorant and poor Somali masses as leverage in order to reach a very narrow goal. P.s. I actually wish "anarchists" would be pacify the city and rid the city off foreign troops. Then they can keep the presidency as long as they want. With power comes responsibility. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tillamook Posted February 20, 2015 <cite> @thefuturenow said:</cite> Till, The 2016 story is already written. And no one is going to defeat the "anarchists" as XX calls them with guns. We can put that strategy to the side. The rest of your spchill is old "I hate HSM" story. Give us ideas ninyow. How can this man weaken HAG and PL on his way out? Dabrow----kkk. Go home ninyow. <cite> @thefuturenow said:</cite> XX, How can it not be his problem? He has to sign off on a Central State. That state must be either 1.5 or 2 combined states. I think the safer strategy is to keep north Mudug in PL. This is because then it will only be a political problem but PL already controls that area. But if he agrees to a full Galmudug state then physical control of Mudug will cause trouble. Either way, there is no winning this one. thefuturenow, I at times wonder why you chose such a name ...is it because you are trying to conceal your Anarchist credentials on this forum, huh? First of all, allow me to set the record straight: I do not "hate" our president, and I have strong reservations about your churlish insinuations. Everybody on SOL knows about how I, like most Somalis around the world, welcomed his victory and how happy we were the night President Culusow got elected and all the hopes and aspirations we all shared. But unfortunately, after seeing his first anti-federalist executive actions in office, the honeymoon did not last long and all thinking Somalis everywhere realized that the President was a directionless circus monkey in a suit, hellbent on becoming a complete hindrance to the Federalization of the country. But alas, a majority of Somalis have embraced federalism and they insisted that Culusow respect the constitution and follow it to the letter, come what may! Which brings me to your other questions about the formation of the Bartamaha state and your naive statement that the new federal member state could either be made up of 1.5 or 2 provinces--as if the Federal constitution does not fully delineate the requirements needed to become a federal member state. I gather you suffer from the same delusions that have caused Culusow to find himself in the predicament he is in Saaxiib, there is no such thing as halves in the constitution... and the constitution is paramount in everything we discuss here! No one clan will be allowed to break up any of the 18 provinces of Somalia. The petty bone of contention over the two districts in Mudug( Xarardheer and Hobyo) which are not yet a part of Puntland will eventually sort itself out, and ultimately the fate of whether the whole of Mudug either remain in Puntland or Join up with the yet to be formed Bartamaha State will be decided by what a majority of the people of Mudug want. Now, señor thefuturenow, if you knew anything about the geography, and demographics of the population that inhabit Mudug, you would have no doubt that Mudug is indeed Puntland and Puntland is Mudug. Which should also answer your initial question: Culusow does not need to be of any help nor hindrance to anyone. Galmudug and Puntland will sort each other out and, I believe to the interest of the Unuka family, coalesce around one another under one unit called Puntland. Now the provinces left over which will form the last federal member state will be Galgaduud, Hiiraan and Shebeelalaha Dhexe. And the way things are looking to me so far indicates that the HG tribes, D.ir and Kacaan D blood family, which share the Ahlulsunna umbrella will take the lead in the formation of this new state. Their recent victory in Guriceel over the Moryan warlords( which are Culusow's hired mercenaries) shows that for a fact. So once again, our president is politically screwed. Unlike Ceasar, he came, he saw, and he failed miserably! The end! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thefuturenow Posted February 20, 2015 Che, I agree with all you said. But I disagree that this is a legitimate government. These guys are our colonial deputies. They have been given 2 purposes. (1) Get rid of Political Islam and (2) Make the place safe enough so the big boys can drill drill drill. From that; you can guess where my political alliances lie. Till, The constitution does say that 2 or more states based on Pre-1990 borders. But that is the issue. PL will not give up half of Mudug nor will the matter come to a referendum. Even more ridiculous is that you think shabeelaha dhexe will join with Galgaduud. Even though I think its a great political move---it will probably not happen. There has been one clan waging war in Hiiraan for the past year and they have not been doing it for HG takeover. Most likely, it is to join Hiiraan with Shab dhexe. That way unuka will have a xamar presence with a state to go with it. This means that there is no chance that PL gets all of Mudug. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tillamook Posted February 20, 2015 ^ Get it through your head, the constitution is clear: "2 or more provinces can form a federal member state". It does not say half a province or quarter of a province not a third of a province, but a whole province can get together with another or others to form a federal member state. The petty clan politics of Mudug natives will be resolved one way or another and that province like every other province in Somalia will remain intact territorially and politically. As for Galguduud, Hiiraan and Sh.Dhexe which you dismiss so easily...the clan in Guriceel(Galguduud) has made it plain for all to see--with its recent victory against Culusow that they intend to keep their territories in Galguduud and Hiiraan' Matabaan districts, contiguous and part of any state building negotiations. So culusow may want whatever it is he thinks he will get for Unuka( which I doubt very much), but at the end of the day --no one clan in Somalia can force another into submission. I just hope the innate Anarchist in you understands that. In today's Somalia, only the politically adept will come out on top. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thefuturenow Posted February 24, 2015 http://www.mareeg.com/madaxweyne-xasan-halaga-qeybqaato-maamul-u-sameynta-shabeellaha-dhexe-hiiraan/ New state formation---Hiiraan iyo Shabeellaha Dhexe..... Sorry, Till. It looks like your prediction will be unfulfilled. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Che -Guevara Posted February 24, 2015 Reer Hiiraan are not too keen on this. I am waiting for what they will do with Benadir? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tillamook Posted February 24, 2015 <cite> @thefuturenow said:</cite> http://www.mareeg.com/madaxweyne-xasan-halaga-qeybqaato-maamul-u-sameynta-shabeellaha-dhexe-hiiraan/ New state formation---Hiiraan iyo Shabeellaha Dhexe..... Sorry, Till. It looks like your prediction will be unfulfilled. Saaxiib, waa Hal bacaad lagu lissay! Matabaan and Guriceel will NEVER be in different federal states! P.S I am not in the business of predictions. I am in the business of facts only. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
