New York Times: Iraq's New Government Doomed To Fail...

[CidanSultan]

Tests for a Still Broken IraqCan the U.S. Count on the New Government in Baghdad?

 

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD

 

SEPTEMBER 17, 2014

 

It is tempting, but shortsighted, to believe that the recently reconfigured governmentin Iraq is a dependable ally in the new military operation the Obama administration began this week to take back territory seized by the Islamic State, a Sunni extremist group.

 

During his first few days in office, Haider al-Abadi, the prime minister, took constructive steps that might improve the prospect of reconciliation between the Shiite-run government and Sunnis, which is important to beating back the insurgency. But even as he vows to repair ties with the Sunnis and Kurds in western and northern Iraq, there is little evidence that the power brokers in government can win the trust of all segments of the country needed to isolate the Islamic State, also known as ISIS.

 

As a first move, Mr. Abadi instructed Iraqi security forces to stop shelling civilian areas indiscriminately, often with imprecise munitions known as barrel bombs, which have resulted in many casualties. Those practices, routinely used by the Shiite-led security forces in fighting insurgents, have helped to build sympathy and drive support for the Islamic State, which now controls big sections of Iraq and Syria. The new government has also appointed as vice president Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite politician who was backed by many Sunnis in his failed bid to become prime minister in 2010.

 

But the fact remains, the Baghdad government is weak and structurally flawed, with divisions along sectarian lines. For years, Mr. Abadi has been a confidant of the former prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, a fellow Shiite whose authoritarian streak and sectarianism are largely to blame for Iraq’s unraveling. Some Sunnis appear willing to give Mr. Abadi the benefit of the doubt, but many will also recall times when Mr. Maliki duplicitously presented himself as a conciliatory leader. And the nation’s core problems — including disputes over internal boundaries and oil proceeds — are unresolved.

 

In arming and bolstering Kurds and Shiite-led Army divisions today, the Obama administration may be inadvertently shaping the course of future conflicts.

 

If Mr. Abadi turns out to be a transformational politician able to bring about some cooperation between the factions, there might be hope for the gamble President Obama took by announcing an open-ended military operation that Congress has not authorized. But longtime observers of Iraqi politics are very skeptical that Mr. Abadi has the ability to undo years of brutal sectarian-based politics.

 

“I think we’re basically hoping that these same politicians who have ruled Iraq since 2003 are going to behave differently,” said Emma Sky, an Iraq expert at Yale University who served as an adviser to American generals in Baghdad for several years.

 

If the government in Baghdad is to succeed in charting a new course, it will need to take substantive steps soon. Among them is to appoint new defense and interior ministers, critical posts that for years were held by Mr. Maliki, and to appoint military leaders who are competent and untainted by sectarian abuses of the past.

 

Another priority is to rein in the country’s Shiite militias, which re-emerged from the shadows as Islamic State fighters appeared within reach of the capital. Putting these Iranian-backed militias back on a leash will not be easy because they have often worked in tandem with Iraqi security forces and political factions. But Mr. Abadi’s government must insist that they start disbanding.

 

To regain any trust among Sunnis, the government must start releasing those rounded up in mass arrests during Mr. Maliki’s tenure and bring back into the administration Sunni politicians who were pushed out with false allegations of having connections to extremists. One prominent example is Rafe al-Essawi, a former finance minister from Anbar Province who had to flee Baghdad last year after he denounced Mr. Maliki’s brutal crackdown on Sunni demonstrators.

 

If the government is unable or unwilling to take these steps now, the American military will find itself once again defending a self-destructive Iraqi state