Alawites Horrified As Rebel Forces Take Northern Syria and Close in on Alawites

[CidanSultan]

SYRIA PULSEView Pulse Map إقرأ باللغة العربيةنبض سوريا

 

A memorial bearing the portraits of soldiers from Tartous, who died during the Syrian conflict, is seen on a wall in the city northwest of Damascus, May 18, 2014. (photo by JOSEPH EID/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Alawites prepare as IS, Jabhat al-Nusra close in on regime areas

TARTOUS, Syria — Supporters of the Syrian regime seemed to be more reassured last year, as regime forces had been advancing, retaking the lead in many regions, especially along the coast. The emergence of the Islamic State (IS) and the progress it made at the expense of the opposition, declaring the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in June, did not cause much fear in the ranks of the regime’s supporters.

 

Supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad long dismissed the threat from the Islamic State, but that threat has become real as jihadists move into the Homs countryside, approaching Alawite and Christian areas.

 

However, concerns increased as IS started waging battles against government forces in Raqqa province and in the eastern countryside of Homs, while different brigades, including Jabhat al-Nusra, have been advancing in the Hama countryside, closing in on Al-Ghab plain, which is seen as the eastern gate to the Alawite areas in the mountains of the Syrian coast.

 

In the Alawite-majority coastal city of Tartous, people are still leading normal lives, as they are not greatly affected by the turn of events. However, many of the region’s young men continue to perish in battles. Nevertheless, security measures have recently been noticeably tightened, with security patrols deployed on main crossroads at night, in addition to checkpoints where cars are stopped to verify the identities of drivers and to make sure they own the vehicles they are driving.

 

A citizen in the area said: “The authorities have concerns about car bombs and the infiltration of IS fighters into the city,” while others downplayed the role of these patrols and mobile checkpoints, with one person saying, “They have been deployed to detect car-theft gangs, which have recently increased.”

 

Still, the regime’s supporters have changed their stance on IS after it gained control of the 17th Division headquarters in Raqqa, killing dozens of soldiers, mostly hailing from the Syrian coast.

 

An Alawite pro-opposition citizen from Tartous, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Al-Monitor: “Many of the supporters of the regime here have been whispering that the organization is infiltrated by the Syrian intelligence, to break the ranks of the brigades fighting against the regime. Many of them did not give IS much attention, considering it to be one of the factions fighting against the Syrian authorities. They were content with the fact that IS has been keeping the opposition battalions busy with side battles. Today, however, things have changed. IS appears to be an organized, strong and brutal faction, advancing at the expense of other groups, including the regime’s forces, after a long period of mutual nonaggression.”

 

The concerns over IS can be clearly detected by simply asking a taxi driver in the city about the situation.

 

“We were reassured that IS will not get near our areas, but it is closing in on the Alawite town of Furqlus in the eastern countryside of Homs," the taxi driver in Tartous told Al-Monitor. "Other fighters have been advancing in areas surrounding Hama, and the claims by some people that IS is secretly collaborating with the regime’s forces appear to be an illusion. Hundreds of Alawite soldiers have been killed in Raqqa’s countryside and at the Al-Shaer gas field in eastern Homs.”

 

To the east of Tartous, in the western countryside of Homs, residents in some Alawite villages are getting ready for an anticipated battle with IS. There have been rumors circulating among residents that armed factions controlling the Houla Plain and the eastern countryside of Homs are on the verge of joining the ranks of IS.

 

A resident of one of these towns, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Al-Monitor: “Many young men from the Houla Plain may join the ranks of IS, which will make the organization more powerful, organized and maybe more heavily armed if it manages to expand toward the northern countryside of Homs.”

 

“The tacit agreement between IS and the regime collapsed. People in Houla hold a grudge against us, as they accused the National Defense Forces [NDF] in our region of being responsible for the Houla massacre in May 2012,” he said.

 

As IS and Jabhat al-Nusra move closer to Alawite areas, Alawite residents prepare for what many here see as an existential fight.

 

“I refused to join their ranks [NDF], and I believe that they may actually be responsible for the massacre in Houla. But Sunni militants are advancing in the neighboring countryside of Hama, while IS is fighting fierce battles against the regime’s forces to the east of Homs. Should IS attack our towns, I have no other choice but to fight alongside the NDF to defend myself, my family and my home,” he added, pointing out to a man standing near us, carrying a Kalashnikov rifle.

 

The swift deterioration of the situation in the west and north of Hama’s countryside, as anti-regime forces — including Jabhat al-Nusra — advance toward the Christian city of Mhardeh, which overlooks Al-Ghab Plain, as well as in the direction of Hama’s military airport.

 

The militants began carrying out unprecedented attacks using BM-21 Grad missiles targeting the regime’s sites surrounding Alawite-majority towns in Masyaf city and Al-Ghab Plain.

 

Moreover, civilians have started fleeing Alawite villages that are located near battlefields such as the town of Arza near Hama’s military airport, which has been deserted.

 

A resident from an Alawite town in the western countryside of Hama told Al-Monitor, “The situation has become perilous as groups linked to Jabhat al-Nusra are approaching the region.”

 

“People are carrying arms at an increasingly rapid pace, while many families owning real estate in Tartous and Latakia have deserted their homes. The situation has become alarming in this region, especially since many residents expect Jabhat al-Nusra to commit massacres there, should it progress in the region. This will be in retaliation for the massacres the group accused the NDF of committing in Sunni towns — mainly in the towns of Tremseh and al-Lataminah in 2012,” he said.

 

A quick tour of the Alawite villages in the west of Hama’s countryside is sufficient to notice the extent of tension and alert among people, as dozens of checkpoints are deployed along the roads, while cars and pedestrians are being thoroughly searched.

 

In addition, many young men from these towns have been fighting alongside regime forces since the very beginning of the armed confrontations, and this region is seen as the area with most overlapping sects in Syria. It is also considered to be the main gate from the east to the Alawite-fortified areas in the mountains of the Syrian coast.

 

This is likely to prompt the Syrian regime to prepare for major military campaigns in the direction of the strategic areas of Halfaya and Morek in the northern countryside of Hama. It has been widely circulated among regime supporters here, probably citing army sources, that controlling these two areas would be sufficient to cut the supply routes for armed brigades in the rest of Hama.

 

 

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/08/syria-jihadist-threat-homs.html#ixzz3BuI

[CidanSultan]

 

 

 

[CidanSultan]

Israel said it will Obsorb alawites once the dog (Assad) falls.

 

 

 

 

[CidanSultan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYxBEIg6d-o

 

 

 

[DoctorKenney]

What Bashar Assad will do--in due time--is to consolidate all of his forces and make a push towards Syria's coastal region.

 

And then he will attempt to create a Secular Alawi State in the Coastal Region, for his own people.

 

And then he will leave the rest of Syria to the Sunnis.

 

That's his only ploy in order to ensure the survival of his own people, because this war can't go on indefinitely. And there really is no turning back now. Syria will NEVER return to it's former state.

[CidanSultan]

I agree that Syria will never return to its former state. Where I disagree is that he will attempt to create an alawite coastal state. The entire coast is not alawite. The alawites live predominately in tartus and the governate of tartus and villages scattered around Hama. The coastal regions are divided into two Latakia which has alawite minority and a Sunni majority and tartus governate. If you mean they will entrench themselves in tartus I agree that's were the alawites last stand will be. Whether they try and form a state is not relevant because it will be crushed.

 

At present islamic state has taken the entire North East with the exception of deir Azor airport which is small currently surrounded and has mortars raining down on it. The free Syrian army and other groups are around Aleppo. Jabhat al nusra is around Hama, the qalamoun mountains and near golan. We then have a different coalition in an area not far from Damascus called gouta and also fighting around the Damascus suburbs.

 

Assad has lost a lot of men, Hezbollah has lost a lot of men. Iran has become obsessed with Iraq and doesn't really see Assad as able to holding back the rebels. Case in point, We were all expecting this major push by assads forces around Aleppo however it was insignificant then pulled back. This shows that something serious is happening.

 

Just yesterday the defence minister was assassinated for the fall of the biggest base in the north taqba. Assads brother took to twitter nervous saying lets fortify from Hama to Damascus. So clearly some form of fortification will be attempted.

 

The islamic state will take the last remaining airport in Allepo in a week or so, it's small and insignificant then deir Azor airport a few weeks after that. Allepo will be the decision maker. Will the rebels and islamic state fight it out or will the Fsa withdraw ? That will determine everything.

 

If islamic state captures Allepo. The Fsa will withdraw to Hama or the inside turkey. Then what will likely happen is they will push south to Hama and the Coast Latakia. While also going south to palmyra towards Damascus.

 

At present the Fsa are fighting hard in Hama and are on the verge of taking the airport there.

 

It's to soon to tell but what's for certain is Assad gets weaker every day. And the mass execution of soldiers has become demoralising for his shabiha forces. A lot of them are leaving the army, avoiding conscription or leaving the country.

 

The alawites are also starting to turn on him as we'll but it's to late for that. The alawites death toll is severe.

[DoctorKenney]

Yeah, Assad has dwindling resources and manpower and he can't keep this fight going on indefinitely.

 

And his troops and people are becoming more and more demoralized day by day, as many young Alawi men are killed everyday in battle.

 

But the Alawi people number at least 3 million. There is no way they won't attempt to form their own state and then defend themselves against all attackers.

 

Remember, defense is always easier than offense. And if the Alawites fortify their positions in the coastal region and then declare their own independence as a Secular Alawite State, I don't see any reason why The Major Global Powers won't recognize their independence and even supply them with more weaponry.

 

And the Rebels in Syria wouldn't consider it worth their while to use their resources to try and conquer the Alawite State on the Coast.

[CidanSultan]

I don't think any state will recognise a alawite state they haven't recognised the Kurds even though they have been the staunchest of servents.

 

As Assad gets weaker he will do everthing to hold on to tartus governate and Damascus. Aleppo is the game changer will the rebels work together or will the Islamic state push the FSA aside? That's a key question.

 

The strategy the rebels are using at present is to take over an attack bases remove all components of Assad and then move on.

 

Allepp, Hama and Homs once these cities fall and the regime supply lines are cut Damascus will fall. When Damascus falls along with all the sunni cities. I honoustly believe elements like the Islamic state and others that have a score to settle will attack tartus and the alawite cities and have a field day.

 

These guys seriously want to remove all the alawites out of Syria.

 

This is an existential fight for survival for the alawite. A fight they will eventually lose.

 

Israel will give them citizenship I think hahahaha...