The Trouble makers of Somalia are joining together.

[galbeedi]

When it comes to the formation of Somali federal states, we all have certain ideal strategy or how the boundaries must look like. While political realities on the ground dictates the main criteria, others are demarcated by outside forces, , interest groups and tribal hegemony. Every tribe is looking to have an unfair advantage. So far no one had their own ways. The hand rigging of the UN, IGAD and others are visible. After seeing latest maneuvers from these groups, how does the future federal state look like?.

 

The Juba project seemed settled. THe long foot community, backed by Kenya, the "****" block and and the international community will be leading the Jubba state and it is coming to fruition. THe HAG and others, including the President tried to derail this project but, failed. The HAG elders made a big noise, the ****, did the same with no avail. The dog barked but, the caravan continued.

 

Then came the Six provinces of South west region led by Madoobe Nuunow of Bay. Despite their best efforts and the support of their communities, they couldn't dismantle the Jubba caravan. Since that community doesn't have foreign backers or friends in high places, the South West region of six failed. The three state federal project gained momentum. Again the HAG political class and elders rejected the idea. They said a rival three state project of Shabeelaha dhexe, Shabeelaha Hoose, and Benadir will be the three state.

 

In order to form that state, they started a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Shabeelaha Hoose, to create political reality and population presence to increase their stake. The brobogandha took in high gear. The President, Prime minister, UN, IGad and others decided that a three state comprising : Bay, Bakool and Shabeelaha Hoose will be the three state. Everyone protested with no avail. it is done deal.

 

When these issues arise, usually I try to reach my confidant who is located in Mogadishu. These days, he is confined in his house for fear of being targeted, yet he did spill few beans on my behalf.

 

He says that, the UN and the international communities have by now decided, the Somali people shouldn't be left alone to decide these sensitive issues. He says when the road map was pushed three years ago, without the input of the international community, Somalis couldn't even agree if a conference was held in Garowe or Mogadishu. If there is no somebody with judges gavel to say no or reach the verdict, the Somali " isqabqabsi" will go on for eternity.

 

Those who are in power including the President must accept these verdicts and implement. So I asked him about the new Central State formed this week.

 

He said " The HAG community have been complaining about Jubba and Shabeelaha hoose, and since Puntland and Jubb will be two "****" block led federal states, that community want two HAG states, one in central Somalia and one "alta Shabeele and Hiiraan",. He said, " the HAg inhabit Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiiraan, Shabeelah dhexe, Benadir and small numbers in Shabeelaha hoose. they claim to be in six provinces", so for them to have two states is expected".

 

I asked what about the capital?, he said " the capital will not be part of any federal state, it will be a neutral city".

 

Now, the topic of the my headline " trouble makers united".

 

My confidant believes that, certain leaders of the Somali government, the international community and large number of Somalis have concluded that the Mudug and Galgaduud boys are menace to future stability of Somalia. It may not be fair to put in the same box with all Mudg people, since some are challenging for power using different methods, while others are waging wars both in Mogadishu, south and central Somalia, but the verdict is they must be stopped and joined together.

 

While Siyaad Barre himself took the power by the barrel of the gun, and caused the disintegration of the Somali state, most people blame the Coup of C/laahi yuusuf in 1978 and The destruction og Mogadishu to Caydiid, as the root cause of Somali state. Most people believe, the idea of Central State of Somalia, reduces the influence of Galgaduud and and Reer Mudug in southern Somalia. According to these logic, most of the calamities in Mogadishu after 1991 , was the product of central Somalia. When in 1995, Caydiid finally took over Mogadishu and formed his Salbalaadh administration, it was another cousin from Mudug , Cismaan Caato, was the alleged mastermind behind the demise of Caydiid.

 

That war is still being fought in Mudug and Mogadishu. When you see Dahir Calasow, attacking the federal government while claiming to be somebody who cares about Somali sovereignty, do not be fooled by him. He is waging the Mudug war of " Jilib" and against another warlord Cabdi Qaybdiid. As soon as Qoslaaye supported the Galmudug of Qaybdiid, that faction " Calasow', started it's campaign, including fabricating lies and other steps to undermine the Somali state. " Dagaalka Jilibkooda ayaa la dhigiayaa mid Soomaaliyeed oo wax lagu saxayo, laakiin waa xaafadii hoose oo Jilib kale dagaal kula jirta."

 

Unlike his predecessor C/raxman Faroole, the President of Puntland, C/weli has been cooperating with federal government. He was concentrating local and other issue. According to the new configuration of Somalia, Puntland will be reduced to two provinces of Nugaal and Bari, with future addition of Sool. These idea has a wide support among many players, including some " ****" block members. Even the Reer Bari of Boosaaso, and Qandala could be smiling By the removal of the Reer Mudug from Puntland power structure.

 

How else do you explain the political maneuvering before the announcement of the central state of Somalia. Cumar Cabdirashiid is appointed an ambassador to America, he is allying with Qoslaaye. C/raxmaan Faroole , the dean of Puntland politics , didn't raise his voice on this new development. Cweli, the Puntland leader is acting as surprised on this issue, that means they deceived him.

 

Two tough groups who have shed blood for power for the last 35 years, will be sharing a central state. Some are probably saying " sharkooda ina dhaafiya oo meel iskugu geeya".

 

Again all this could be a " fadhi ku dirir and chatter of the political class or a rude awakening. As some said Qosalaaye is becoming machiavellian.

[CidanSultan]

As long as foreign mercenaries are inside Somalia nothing can be known about the future trajectory of somalia. All your doing is guessing. Without Kenya madobe will run for for his life. I know this you know this and alshabab know this. All these so called regional administrations are in name only but not a reality on the ground. The day Kenya leaves it will be reclaimed by alshabab. The same can be said for mugdisho, bay and Bakool etc. alshabab ain't stupid they know these mercenaries will eventually leave that's why they are bidding time picking off long term threats. Somalia has no government, it has no institutions, no army nothing just only in name. Boasted about by people like Malister who in the name of tribalism just tries to save face so his people are not perceived as useless. But the truth is large alshabab units in mugdisho, they are still in kismayo and everywhere.

 

So while you keep dreaming about the future political breakdown of non existence entities the reality is somalia has no real mechanism of combating alshabab therefore it will eventually go back to the elements ie alshabab or continue to walk through purgatory of no mans land being indirectly controlled and run as a protectorate.

[DoctorKenney]

CidanSultan, Al Shabab doesn't have the capability to govern Somalia anymore. They don't have the resources to govern large areas of land like they used to do. Even if AMISOM was to leave today, I don't see any likely way for Al Shabab to rise again. There will undoubtedly be clan militias and other militant groups that would harshly oppose the rule of Godane.

 

As unpopular and useless as Qoslaye's government is, Al Shabab is even more unpopular. They don't have the financial resources or manpower to govern the country. They can ONLY do hit and run attacks and they've been severely weakened. It's as silly as believing that the Ba'athists will retake Iraq, just because they once ruled Iraq for some time. It's not likely.

 

Galbeedi, I think when the dust settles with the establishment of a Central State in Somalia, there should be some form of encouragement by the Federal Government to make these HAG-elements invest in Galguduud and develop it themselves, without the interference of others. If they feel like they have a stake in a future Somalia, without having to deal with other tribes they dislike, then it'll go a long way. Even if the people of Central State fight each other, who really cares? Like as long as the conflict is localized in a certain region, other parts of Somalia will stay immune to the violence. And eventually, the people of Central State will come to an agreement and start to cooperate with each other.

 

It's part of the growing pains of establishing a Federal State. I know Somaliland was going through some serious growing pains especially in the 1990's. There was a lot of conflict within the Somaliland clans. And there's still some conflict today, but it's been greatly diminished. Sure, there might be HAG-elements killing each other in the Central State, it's entirely possible. But that's one of the benefits of federalism. As long as these conflicts are localized, and no one interferes, then eventually the stakeholders in Central State will find it in their interest to resolve their differences as brothers. Instead of bringing the entire country down, the fight is now localized. And they might have the motivation to "compete" with the other states of Somalia like Puntland or Jubbaland. And if the Federal Government in Somalia has very limited powers and very little influence, then the Central State people have absolutely NO EXCUSE to not develop their land. The residents of Central State would look at the other provinces of Somalia and hold their leaders accountable if they don't perform well.

[CidanSultan]

^^^^

 

That's the same thing they said about alqaeda in Iraq in 2004 it's finished it doesn't have the capacity anymore. Don't get me wrong I think alshabab is a disaster for somalia I wouldn't wish their rule over anyone all I'm saying is no actual full scale war has occurred with alshabab they simply melted away and they can resurface anytime all it takes is the Capture of one strategic city and the withdraw of the au mercanaries and alshabab is back. The tribes as always have been divided you will find some that support it and others opposing it. What is certain is au will eventually leave and when they do, if alshabab can take one strategic city and establish order it will use it as a launch pad to take others. The same thing happened in kismayo the same thing happened in baydhabo etc and the same thing can potentially happen again.

[DoctorKenney]

Al Qaeda in Iraq was finished because the Sunni tribes had enough of Al Qaeda and their crap, so they were driven from power and chased out of Iraq. But the idiotic antics of Nouri Al Maliki led the same Sunni tribes to ally themselves with ISIS, to the point where ISIS are very few in number, with a majority of the fighters actually just being Sunni tribal members. That's the difference.

 

Al Shabab lost whatever goodwill they may have had from the Somali people. That's why when Godane said a couple months ago that the Somalis should "resist foreign occupation" and to "support Al Shabab so we can rid this country of these foreigners", it fell on deaf ears. No one took him seriously. He was the one idiotic enough to burn bridges and mistreat the people in 2010, 2011, 2012. Somalis don't forget. They've grown more clumsy in their attacks, they've claimed credit for violence which they never actually had anything to do with. They're desperate. They're a dying movement and all we need to do is to speed up the burial. All this President needs to do is to keep up the pressure on these xayawaans

[burahadeer]

too many bandits in Somalia,it neva be cohesive.Clannish mind,clannish agenda and clannish everything that surpasses any otha Somali region.Just get by til by the year 3000.

[CidanSultan]

Alshabab has the support of huge swathes of population across the south. In kismayo, bay ad bakool and barwe etc. Alshabab may be hated by Somalis in the diaspora even inside mugdisho Alshabab has a large support network how do you think they operate.

 

The alternative to Alshabab is a imaginary government based in mugdisho that doesn't control anything and is dependent on foreign mercaneries. Alshabab I have to admit have no PR ability, they claim every attack who knows of they are even behind most of these attacks.

 

Alshabab or Burundistan protectorate is the choice the people in Somalia have. To use kismayo as an example the people liked alshabab. Because it removed tribalism, gave them stability and even some social services.

[DoctorKenney]

The people of the South do NOT support Al Shabab. Sure, there may be some naive people who support Al Shabab over the Federal Government, but this is because of their intense hatred for the AMISOM forces currently occupying Somalia. Their logic is "My enemy's enemy is my friend", but it does not mean that they're in favor of that xaywan dog Godane and his terrorist ilk.

 

The warlords in 1990 cooperated in toppling Siyad Barre. Their mutual hatred of Siyad led them to ignore their animosities and to cooperate towards a common objective. But as soon as Siyad was gone, they turned on each other. That's what'll happen if AMISOM leaves. Somalis will turn on each other, but there's no way in HELL that Shabab will ever have substantial power again. The people hate Shabab, it's too late saaxib. The ship has already sailed. They've blown up civilians, attacked innocent people, blown up shopping malls in Kenya, and did all sorts of stuff which alienated them not only in Somalia, but from the wider Muslim world. They'll keep fighting, but they're getting more desperate, and the Somali Army is doing a great job attacking their positions. Why do you think they've started to resort to highway robbery in order to maintain their cash flow? That snake Ahmed Godane and all of his senior associates will be hanged as soon as possible inshaAllah.

 

Cidan, the alternative to Al Shabab is a Federal Somalia, where the Central Government has very little power, and the power will be divided amongst the States. A Federal Somalia where the Regional States recruit soldiers from their own population and pay them their salaries (using foreign aid at first), is the alternative to Al Shabab. Things will change, give it time. This President Qoslaye is an absolute failure, but with his buffoonery, Somalia is still progressing and setting up the foundations for a modern nation-state.

[Muhammad1508736698]

the whole issue is a scum and to the common Somalis it changes nothing when it comes to realities on the ground...our government of high-school teachers was conditioned to complete the formation of federal states before the aid money from London and Brusells conferences is released to them. that is why we see the haste in their decisions without consulting the genuine leaders and the populations from these states. just that some corrupted so called leaders who happened to hail from those regions signed the formation..they keep announcing these federal states which has no tangible support on the ground...they all in for the money SMH

[Mooge]

well said mohammad. this is a phantom state which is rejected by everyone.

[Muhammad1508736698]

Mooge not only this state but the rest of them including Juba...none of the states serve the interest of it's people...another way of milking the big fat cow...things should be formed from the bottom but our leaders are doing the opposite..SMH

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

<cite>

@Mooge

said:</cite>

well said mohammad. this is a phantom state which is rejected by everyone.

 

However, you are an ardent supporter of the father of them all pipe dream states: Axmed Madoobe's mirage based in Afmadoow iyo Kismaayo, later town depending solely with Kiikuuyo tanks support. He doesn't even control Jubbada Dhexe iyo Gedo, the gobollo he claims.

 

At least Mudug and Galgaduud kuwa saxiisay control more lands than Axmed Madoobe's figment of the tolka imagination.