Is Djibouti trying to deploy Amisom in Somaliland?

[galbeedi]

 

 

The Ramadan is over , and the Eidul adha is tomorrow . Ciid Mubarak to r all. Now let us go back to the issues that were dormant for the last few weeks.

 

 

In the horn of Africa, where twenty million Somalis call home, things were getting from bad to worst for the last twenty five years. A land where nomads, city dwellers, farmers and pastoral Somalis roomed free. While most of the climate is harsh, Somalis thrived with their poetry and resilience.

 

With the foreign interference , tribal rivalry, ignorance, greed, and zero sum game, the Somali people were reduced as refugees , beggars, internal displaced people and incompetent loose fiefdoms. If you look around, it is easy to notice the fragmentation, fictional rivalries and the mushrooming of foreign powers , both in land and sea.

 

NFD ( the north eastern frontier district) : Although it was relatively peaceful for the last few decades, it is getting worse by almost every week. The successive Kenyan governments since independence, never developed these part of the country. Emergency measures to suppress the self determination of the people were implemented until few years ago. Their economic and political powers increased for the last twenty years when millions of Somalis poured into the country as a refugees. Now the rise of Al-shabaab and other political issues seems to undermine that gain. If the trend continues, they could be reduced as suspected citizens who will be under the constant watchful eye of the state. The Kenyan-Somali politicians are getting stronger, speaking out for their rights, and if the Al-shabaab threat goes away , that community could be a vibrant and successful. It could be said certain freedom of association exist in that part, but today they are under a lot of pressure.

 

None Five ( Somali Galbeed). There are some progress in Jijiga and other towns, electricity is reaching villages and some commercial activities are increasing. All that gain is undermined by the constant presence and the occupation of the Tigrey armies in the Zone. Freedom and association is out of the the question. The leaders of the zone are in constant fear to be arrested or replaced if they dare to demand any freedom and political association. It is a place where Somalis are oppressed. It is a place where free Somalis will never want to live.

 

Federal republic of Somalia. and the capital. A permanent government was established in 2012. government institutions are taking hold in the capital, the leadership is becoming accountable to the people in terms of security and implementation of the general peace. The firing of national police chief, and the director of the intelligence means that they are accountable and are taking the criticism in full force. Still , the instability is increasing, the most prominent Somalis have been targeted for the last twenty five years. Thousands of foreign troops have been deployed to secure the country and defeat Al-shabaab. Most of these militaries reside in barracks inside Mogadishu and other cities, where the issue of security already shifted to intelligence and law enforcement, that can only by Somalis. THe last major offensive against al-shabaab by these militaries was last summer.

 

By carefully studying their modus operandi, the only way the country can be secured is to deploy thousands of troops in every city and region. Rather than enhance and pay the salaries of the Somali army, the international community is bankrolling fat soldiers sitting inside barracks. As of these writing , there is no short term solutions or light under the tunnel, yet Somalis hope a peaceful Mogadishu means the rebirth of nation. For now , The south of Somalia is a place of employment for the armies of the region. Yes Mogadishu used to be free, even under the warlords, but today , it is the land of fear and murder. God willing it could change.

 

Puntland. They are in the right direction in terms of political leadership and continuity. without a help from the international donors and long extended peace, Puntland , cannot even afford to pay the salary of their security forces. Without these dedicated security members, Puntland, would have been overrun by Al-shabaab militants. with no direct help coming from the federal government , they are struggling. Incidents and other security related factors also play a big role before they can fully develop. Another shortcoming is very few people from the diasporas settle or relocate to puntland permanently. This could be either security related or the lack of infrastructure to attract families who need modern amenities.

 

The good news is, While Puntland is surrounded by flashpoints like Sool region and Gaalkacayo, the people have matured enough, a tribal war or other anarchist tendencies would not happen in the foreseeable future. Although relatively stable, for whatever reason, Puntland will not be a destination for Somalis to relocate or a free place where people could associate freely. A lot has to happen before that.

 

Somaliland. It could be argued that Somaliland is the only place where Somalis feel free. of course Somaliland has a lot of underlining issues in terms of governance, accountability , freedom of the press and high unemployment among the youth and others. There are skirmishes in the east, which needs real understanding and peace. It is a system that needs major overhaul and reform.

 

Despite all those problems , the people of Somaliland feel free. They are in charge of their destiny. What ever progress or development they achieve is gained through their ingenuity , hard work and the aspirations of the people. Sometimes, you may see some tabloid newspaper editors being arrested for writing the misdeeds of the government, but , in general people are free to speak against the government or those in power. You may see Sheekh AAdan Siiro from Gabiley say " waar waxaan aragnay kuwa Pepsiga ku farxalanaya halka ay dadkii biyo ka laa yihiin ", or Sheekh Hassan Daheeye of Borama , denounce SNM , President Siilaanyo or his ministeries. Yet nothing happens to them. People freely attend prayers without fear of extremists or the government.

 

They know, what ever shortcoming or problems they have is within their own system or weaknesses, not a foreign imposed or instigated. They do not want any interference from the neighbors or others. When they see President Siilaanyo pass through Ethiopia to reach any where, they know it is a forced visit or a necessary evil. Deep down they know they shouldn't be kissing the hand of the Ethiopian dictator. It is one of those weaknesses that can only be overcome through a strong united Somalia.

 

In all, Hargeisa is the land of the free, the home of the independent Somalis who refuse to be ruled by Amisom and others. a free Somalia that must be preserved before the eventual union. In this unsettling and dangerous times in the Horn of Africa, Somaliland is an asset that must be protected from a turmoil. There is a political , educational, commercial, military and other assets that worthy preserving , or could be used for the solving of the Somali problem. I conclude by saying, that among the Somali speaking world, the only place where people can speak freely, associate freely and argue freely without foreign interference is Somaliland.

 

Djibouti. It is a an oasis of relative peace in these troubled region. A recognized Republic since 1977, Djibouti is an essential port and commercial in the Somali region. Their currency, the Djibouti Franc, which propped by the French National Bank, has been stable for the last forty years. Df is begged to the dollar and nothing has changed in terms of exchange for all these years. That makes the asset of the business community and others reliable. Their currency doesn't float in the market like the Ethiopian Birr or Kenyan Shillings.

 

 

Since the collapse of the Somali state, a large number of businessman have parked their assets in Djibouti banks and real estate. Not only Al-Barakaat and others from the south , but almost every big Somaliland businessman needed the access of international banks in Djibouti. All in all Djibouti has certain good will from Somalis in general. In my humble opinion, Djibouti will became anti freedom , despotic island where Somalis are subjugated. Most Somalis who have witnessed the an ending Somali quagmire , have no any appetite for Geele bashing or even the repression in the horizon. With all these good attributes Djibouti is not a free country.

 

So what is changing in Djibouti. Ismaaciil Cumar Geele, the dictator of Djibouti, is in his third term as a president. When his last term finishes , he would have served almost twenty years. In 2011, he changed the constitution in order to serve another term. Djiboutians who are familiar with local politics believe that , he is not going anywhere. they believe, like most dictators, he would find a way to permanently be the president until he is taken to grave. There are two scenarios.

 

1- He will copy from Vladimir Putin and find a president who serves just one term while Geele acts as the Prime minister. in this scenario , he will bring a " Canfar" president to serve while he acts as the prime minister. After that term finishes, he will run again for president . I doubt that African dictators are smart enough to orchestrate that kind of political maneuvering.

 

2- Destabilize the region. In my opinion , these scenario could be the one that is plausible in Gelle's mind. In 2005, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia was pressured by the opposition to allow free and fair elections. Huge demonstration and riots almost toppled his regime. To survive, he used live ammunition to the demonstrations and killed up to forty people. He had a tremendous difficulty to hold on power after 14 years. In 2006, the Islamic Courts of Somalia agitated against Ethiopia. Meles, the despot found a way to extend his hold. He invaded Somalia, and the country was put in an emergency situation. He put the opposition under pressure, and the western countries that were demanding reform and democratic change, shifted gear in the name of fighting terrorism. his profile grow more, and no one in the opposition dared to challenge. Before he scummbed to cancer in 2012, there were no meaningful threats to his power. I believe Cumar Geele want to follow his friend Meles, and instigate a regional crises in order to prolong his hold in power.

 

This destabilization of the region could take in many forms. First, dictators in their own mind try to be bigger than life itself. While it is not bad to think big, one must know his limitations. A nation of less eight hundred thousand must concentrate relieving poverty, water shortage and chronic unemployment.

 

Geele's sub clan, as you may know is originally from the coastal area of Awdal, mostly Lughaya district. After the Somaliland election 2012, there was disputes about the results which put the two brotherly communities of the Awdal coast on loggerheads. Finally it was resolved peacefully after Geelle's community accepted the results. No one will gain anything for being the mayor or member of a city counsel in this dusty, thirsty, and poor districts of the Awdal coast. There are constant drought and food shortages in the coast. What they need is water wells and infrastructure , not more city council seats. It was " xadhig jiid". Geele never done anything to alleviate the poverty or sponsor few projects, where both his mother's and his " tol' community live.

 

Few years ago he brought the coronation of the Ugaas of his community from Diredhabe to Zaylac, in order to strengthen his claims of the coast. His main goal is to take the ownership of perceived oil blocks in " ceel gaal and Zaylac districts". An american oil company called Conoco Oil, brought some drilling equipment to the coast and even built a helicopter landing post in Ceel Gaal around 1988. The war of that era stopped all exploration and drilling activities. People believe their is a credible possibility of oil in the Awdal coast more than anywhere else.

 

So, he believes the best way to take over the coast and probably incorporate Awdal coast to Djibouti is create a some kind of instability. By stabilizing Somaliland, he could solely control the trade routes of the region.

 

3- the last scenario is that those who destabilized and contributed the war and mayhem in Southern Somalia may want to finish the job through Geele by adding Somalilnd in the mix. In other words a foreign sponsored project carried out by geele.

 

The false flag theory.

 

Folks, I do not want to sound like warlord Dahir Calasow, who manufactures lies as intelligence news or information, but I have to share with you some of the allegations and accusations coming from the Djibouti opposition.

 

early this year an unexploded ordnance, missile , or non weaponized cannon ( no one is sure what it was), landed inside the palace of President Ismaaciil O. Geele. People who live around the area , said they felt huge noise and the earth beneath them shook so bad. . Everyone thought it came from a ship few miles from the coast. After the incident Geelle left his home and stayed away for three days. No one apologised or said anything for few days. Finally , an American delegation came from Nairobi and appologised for the incident. They said it came from a spanish ship who was exercising. Geelle and others thought this was a message for him to back down in his rush to lease Djibouti to new players like China. Soon After the Americans forwarded Gelle their intention to lease their base for long term.

 

This incident happen in February, 27/2014, , few days after a delegation led by the minister of defence from the Peoples Republic of China, came to Djibouti to sign a long term lease for the chinese navy in order to have foothold in the region. Since Geele is only interested about cashing and renting the tiny island to every Tom and Jerry, without first exploring the quesequenese of his action, he got a rude awakening from others. One week after this incident , Geelle signed with American command in Djibouti, a memorandum of understanding for a permanent base for the American east African command. In March/05/2014 , he was welcomed in the white house ti announce the deal. The new lease will keep the American command for the next twenty years. They will bay $70 million a year including $7 million development aid .

 

After he signed this deal, he got some concessions from the Americans and others. His main goal is to deploy Amisom troops( Djibouti troops), in the Awdal coast. As soon as he came back from America , Geelle started his plotting.

 

The Djiboutian theory is that Gelle have done two things. First he took revenge from the Spanish who targeted him with the unexploded cannon, by bombing then in high end restaurant in Djibouti . People in Djibouti say those who died and wounded were mostly Spanish nationals. Second he began to use this incident as pretext for his plans to deploy Amisom troops in Somaliland.

 

Some people say the deceased man and woman who were alleged to have committed in the plot, never ever visited Mogadishu or south Somalia. The man is close to some the oppositions in Djibouti. As the theory goes, They have been already killed earlier. If you carefully study their faces and body, they had no any injuries or fragments of the bomb. It is strange for a suicide bomber who wore a vest or strapped a bomb in their body to be physically intact. Some loony like Calsow, told us that they were sent from Mogadishu.

 

The facts lead us in different direction. The man alleged to be the bomber is both from Djibouti and Dire Dawa Ethiopia. His cousin who is officer in the Djiboutian Chandariemarie already left that force for fear of being killed. He is a well known to have strong connections with opposition. They are saying he never associated to any extremist groups or religious people. Djibouti released their name few days after the incident, which is unusual.

 

Now let us analyze the investigation.

 

They are saying the alleged bombers, the man and the woman, passed through Hargeisa for about a month. The fact is the man has family in Hargeisa and came their more than a dozen times. His brother, cousin and other extended family members also live in Djibouti. He has close family members in the Djiboutian civil service and the police. Now the government of Djibouti is acting like this guy came from Somalia and Hargeisa. He is Djiboutian who originate from Dire Dawa. That is a fact no one can deny.

 

So far they arrested a ticket agent from Hargeisa and seven drivers from Awdal and a who were alleged to have rented their landcruiser to the couple for a ride to Djibouti. If somebody comes at the bus station and asks for a ride, you will happily do it. Not only they arrested the actual driver who took them, but almost most of the owners of these vehicles who travel to Djibouti.

 

So far the border between Somaliland and Djibouti is closed for a month with no apparent reasons. They can check the documents of those who is entering and freight trucks coming from Djibouti, but, they decided to punish the innocent travelers who have done nothing. The Sheeple and weak government of Somaliland handed them all these innocent drivers who had nothing to do with incident.

 

The latest news is that the Japanese are building a big jail in Djibouti to house Al-shabaab members who are captured or those suspected with connections. They are saying that people like Dahir Aweys and Sheekh Atom could be released or the insurgent may attack their jails so , they must be housed in Djibouti. Remember the Hotel like jail the anti piracy command built in Puntland, to house the captured pirates, while the badly needed hospitals are neglected, well it will be another cash cow project. What they don't know is, Aweys will be killed by his friends in Al-shabaab , if he lives his comfortable villa, so no need to protect him in Djibouti.

 

Rather than cooperate with somaliland authority to secure the border and lower the tension, he is aggravating the issue. He is acting like the coastal area of Awdal is a dangerous place to protect. Under these pretext, he want to deploy Amisom troops from Djibouti in Somaliland. He is demanding that Amisom should be involved to deploy inspectors at the border. The Somaliland government should never never accept any deployment of foreign troops in their soil. That will be the Mogadisation of Somaliland. The day A foreign or African troops land in Somaliland, it will be the end of peace.

 

Under these circumstances, what is the best option for Somaliland?.

 

Although Somaliland achieved relative peace for the last decade or more , complacency and the status quo is not a good policy. They must realize that they can't isolate themselves any longer from the raging fires in the neighborhood. Further more, the enemies from within and without who destroyed the Somali nation , may not stop plotting until they finish off the Somali people once for all. There is relative peace in Puntland, and Somaliland is thriving, these could lead a future where Somalis would have a place to start the long awaited perfect union. THe people of Mogadishu , are also realizing that peace can only be achieved if they eradicate the extremists among them. What ever asset Somaliland has could be used to stabilize the rest.

 

I believe those enemies are plotting to effect or lit the fire of anarchy even in Somaliland, in order to complete the disappearance of Somalia in the map. So how can Somaliland avoid these problems.

 

1- never accept third parties , like the Au, Un or Igad to have hand in the issue of security.

2- Make sure the people of Somaliland are united, and tribal conflicts must be avoided at any cost.

3- Stop and suspend indefinitely all exploration activities and contracts to the useless, unknown , untested illegal companies which could pit communities to one another. The Somaliland institutions are not organized enough yet to handle these contracts or their long term effects.

4-Deal Djibouti as equal partner and resolve the outstanding issues of security without undermining the sovereignty of the people you represent. I hope you have nothing to hide , so face them openly. Remember Geele was the leader of small country with important commercial port, nothing more. Because of his influence in Somalia his profile is growing, now he want to punish and reward Somaliland as he wishes, because an isolated Somaliland needs any friend it can get, which puts her in a weak position.

5- Address the issue of unity with Somalia with utmost sincerity and seriousness it deserves. The only way to fight the wolves that gathering around Somalia is to face them as united brothers. A united Somalia , that includes Somaliland doesn't have to fear anyone, including the Ethiopians who are dictating to Somaliland. I didn't address it , but the border with Ethiopia is even closed longer time than the Djibouti one. The idea of Ethiopian trade closed from Somaliland is serving Djibouti well.

6- Do not listen those who say " xukuumadani aduunkii bay nag asoo ooday oo cidlaan taaganahay". Somalialnd was isolated even before. The old Rayaale policy of not engaging Somalia was disaster. Do not revert back to that failed policy , look ahead of the future and engage Somalia.

7- Djibouti may suggest to be part of multinationals who want to explore oil in the coast, if that is the case, , Somaliland must reject any exploration at the moment.

 

Djibouti is becoming a cesspool of corruption and the playground of foreign navies. There were already thousands of French military personnel and their bases in Djibouti, add that to American contingent,; The Germans, the Japanese, The Spanish , the Dutch and soon the Chinese and the Iranians. Since they don't trust the local Djiboutians, they are bringing foreign workers to serve in these bases. Philippines, indians, Kenyans and others are arriving. Ethiopian prostitutes have also been coming from Addis to cash in. Any way , what ever Djiboutians do is their business, and they are intended to lease these island for the highest bidders, but we should not allow them to create instability in somaliland for their economic and dictatorial motives. Who knows, maybe Geelle is doing someone else's dirty work.

 

 

[Saalax]

Interesting read. SOL appreciates your services Galbeedi.

Guelleh trying to deploy AMISOM in the border between

Djibouti - Somaliland has been everywhere in the news

this days.

 

 

 

Eid Mubarak.

[Mooge]

Galbeedi, Puntland was pressured a while ago by the AU with the help of some HAG damjadiids who want to share the missery of AMISOM, to allow AMISOM into Galkacyo. Puntland categorically rejected that garbage talk and took offense to the suggestion. they never brought it up again.

 

somaliland must do the same thing. sending AMISOM to any place will destabilize that region. we don't need these mercenaries creating instability for a paycheck. they will start working with the terrorists in order to earn their salaries and stay longer. the vicious cycle will never end niyoow.

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

ciid Mubaarak Saalax, here you have borders closed for a month and Siilaanyo says " nasashaan ku jiraa". thousands of lives and businesses depend on this border trade. Interior Minister Waran cadde visited both Djibouti and Ethiopia twice, and nothing changed. Siilaanyo should leave London and handle this issues.

 

This is a big vacuum. There is no leadership to fix the crises.

[galbeedi]

Mooge, you are correct. that is a good move from Puntland. C/weli has seen this when he was the prime minister. This two places must reject Amisom.

[Mooge]

Galbeedi, C/Weli will be thrown out by the people if he allows these mercenaries set foot in Puntland. C/Weli will not survive for one single day. it is the people who make the difference. C/Weli knows that full well. people of Puntland don't want AMISOM.

[galbeedi]

That is good news. Puntland way tashatay.

[Tallaabo]

Like the people of Puntland, the citizens of Somaliland would not allow any foreign boots on their soil so really there is nothing to worry about. The problem I have with Somaliland though is this one way extradition treaty we have with every country. No citizen should ever be extradited to any country without first being proven guity of a crime in a Somaliland court.

[Alpha Blondy]

malaaha the thousands of Bantu-noids already here are AMISOM in disguise. unlike the xamaris, we will never sell our country to the highest bidder. allow dhowr SL.

 

Galbeedi,

 

these conspiracies are getting out of control. please stop this nonsense.

 

 

[Holac]

Very insightful read. Djibouti is becoming an important geopolitical player.