Coofle Posted June 15, 2014 @Cidansultan, You don't have to look far, we still have real live examples of ISIS like Al-shabab and Boko haram, actually its becoming a trend, such extremist groups are born out of injustice and the need for savior, first they gain support of masses due to charitable works and establishing a 'mirage' semi-Islamic administrations in controlled regions, then start succumbing to the habit of self-destruction عادت حليمة لعادتها القديمة.... ISIS is no different than our infamous Al-shabab, different geography might call for different measures, but in the core they have the same ideology and even following -and will follow- in the same footsteps. Blatant insurgency will do it for Islam , ISIS is teeming with people of varying agendas, Those fighting out of injustice, another of hatred, another of political interest (Former Ba'athis) and Small group suffering from the Jihad fever. .... Since now they attracted the attention of the world I doubt they will spread anywhere, worst case scenarios few sunnahs in Lebanon might attempt a bold move and ignite fire in lebanon but I doubt it will surmount to anything, Remember Shia and non-Muslims still make the Majority in Lebanon. .... Jordan is in similar condition to another neighboring countries of Saudi arabia or Even turey and Iran. Jordan is predominantly Sunnah muslim and monarch family had always harbored anti-shia sentiments, but the biggest factor here is that the Country was and will continue to enjoy unlimited stability (most stable in the middle east) .... ... Baghdad is dead a end for ISIS; Shi'ites, western powers and to lesser extent neighboring gulf countries will not allow further expansion. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
galbeedi Posted June 15, 2014 There is another scenario that same people are throwing around. With overthrow of Saddam america made Iran the undisputed regional power now some American policy makers are trying to reverse that. The biggest mistake was done by Rumsfeld and others by disbanding 400,000 Iraqi national army, and destroying all governmental authorities by trying to eliminate the Baathist section of the regime. Remember most Sunni jihadists are connected to the Saudi kingdom, and there was always strong bond between the Saudis and the American government. Both of them orchestrated the Afghan Mujahideen war of eighties to drive the Soviets from Afghanistan. They both supported the overthrow of Gaddafi and Assad, now these duo may want to teach a lesson to the hardline shiite prime minister Maliki who is supporting Assad and Hezbollah. The Kurds do not mind this new divide, they were only nominally part of Iraq recently, and now is the time for them to curve out their land and declare independent. Americans , sometimes work in a mysterious way. They may even believe this new developments may hasten the downfall of Asad. I believe the gulf countries are on board I do not think the Americans will lift a finger to help the shiite leadership in Iraq. Their main public relations issue is to find a way for a new leadership for this Sunni coalition that is acceptable to world other than the extremist ISIS. THe idea of Shiite majority in Iraq is exaggerated. of course they are the majority among the Arabs, but if you put the Sunnis and other Ethnic minorities, it is hard to tell. if you combine The Arab sunnis, Kurds, christians, Turkmens of the north who number about 3 million others, the shiite are not a majority. THeir population also concentrates on the south side of the country and east of Baghdad. Maliki's hold on power is the main cause. few years ago the parliament deadlocked over six months to form a government. They are the first shia to rule an arab country, so they won't give up anything. Since their are no plural democracy that can make people of different background to co-exist as citizens, Expect this artificial country to disintegrate along sectarian lines. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 15, 2014 You guys raise valid points that I have been hearing continuously. Such as Iraq will be divided along sectarian lines and that ISIS similar to other jihadi groups win people over and then kill themselves due to injustice later. I agree with the first point I don't see ISIS marching down to the Shia heartland anytime soon. It would be a street by street struggle. Plus the Sunni parts welcomed them and they won't receive the same welcome from the Shia areas. Even in Baghdad they can take the Sunni areas and possibly the mixed areas. The rest would be a mutual blood bath. True to the nature of the art of war I.e. Deception I don't believe there objective is to take he Southern Shia areas. There objectives in my view are. 1. To weaken the Iraqi government to the extent that it is purely limited to Shia areas. 2. To destroy the capacity of Iran and Iraq in supporting the alawite Syrian regime Remember Hezbollah receives it's money and arms through Iraq from Iran .... 3. To allow Sunnis to rule themselves and create a state within a state to counter the Shia government 4. To take as much weapons and supplies from the Iraqi army to support the Syrian campaign Much of the weaponry has been shipped to Syria already through the border that is controlled by ISIS 5. To maintain control of the Syrian Iraq border Remember ISIS fought hard to keep anbar province, falujah, ramadi and then Mosul there is a reason for that 6. To use Iraq as a base to launch operations into Syria. Many of these objectives have already been achieved. The next part will be a long protracted campaign in Syria which we should see in the coming months. ISIS will also hold territory, consolidate power and launch hit and run operations against Iraqi army installations in Baghdad and suicide bombings against Shia targets to keep up the offensive. ISIS are not stupi; they have achieved more then anyone because they are smart. They know that Syria is a majority Sunni nation and they would be welcomed in Syria before Iraq. All they need are the conditions to increase their chances against Assad forces. These guys want a state they want territory and they are not playing a small short term game but a long protracted armed insurgency with the goal of toppling one or the other government Iraq or Syria. ISIS fought al nusra front to bring syrian top jihadi force under them because they understand long term all they have to do is destroy any Shia government in Iraq and Shia power in Iraq but Syria is we're their true intentions lie. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 15, 2014 When it comes to ISIS and alshabab and boko haram I'm still not convinced. As for now we don't see similar actions we see social services, human treatment etc. benefit of the doubt until I see otherwise. The Shia create a lot of problems in the Middle East and without this group we would have Shia and alawite domination in the Middle East this must not be allowed to happen. The Syrian people suffering today is due to the Shia influence in the Middle East. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 15, 2014 Anti Sunni laws: persecutions, arrests, torture in Iran, Iraq and Syria why....???? Iran and the Shia are the greatest challenge facing Muslims in the Middle East. We are weak because we are being weakend from within. Yesterday: Today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPUsVmMe1Ho Once Syria falls...and Iraq is weakend and the Shia are silenced or sidelined...we shall see what happens then...as for now...benefit of doubt Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 15, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsLEDIE-tsk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 15, 2014 More photage of humvs and heavy artilarry moving across the Syrian border... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEPzAefc2q4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 15, 2014 The leader of ISIS abubakr albaghdadi sends a message: stating that they were on the verge of capturing key syrian cities when they were betrayed a few years back. So as we thought this Iraqi initiative is most likely aimed primarily boasting the Syria offensive while empowering Iraqi Sunnis Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coofle Posted June 16, 2014 Alqaida Disavowed ISIL http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/199979 When you have AlQaida accusing an organization of being extremist you know something is not right... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 17, 2014 Alqaeda doesn't exist. Bin laden, zarkawi etc these men hide in the mountains of bora bora. Waiting for orders from the CIA. I have alway believed that this so called alqaeda was an internal CIA run operation. I am not justifying anything. I don't support violence in any way. I believe the best way To achieve anything is through peace and cooperation. But do we really know who alqaeda is ??? They were created by the CIA in the muslim afghan russian conflict. They were trained, funded and established by the CIA. After the Russians withdrew from Afghanistan. Thereafter we heard a speech from bin laden saying anti american stuff... For what reason. The American people themselves live in servitude. A collapsing dollar, high cases Of drug addicts and abuse, serious social problems such as surplus women, homosexuality, collape of the family, shrinking population and demographics. Poor quality education for the masses in effect dumbing down the local population. Conveniently everything bin laden ever did from the beginning to the end was to the benefit of the United States. Then you get 911: not one not two but three building went down demolishin style even though jet fuel doesn't scientifically have the capacity to melt steel. The other plane I.e over the pentagon wasnt there and there was no video photoge of a plane coming anywhere near it. What was more ridiculous is he praised them even though they killed innocent civilians and furthermore the whole world knew that they didn't have anything to do with it. So who is alqaeda really??? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Allyourbase Posted June 17, 2014 Dude stop the conspiracy talk they DO exist and ISIL is the reformed Al Qaeda in Iraq. When the american troop numbers surged they, along with paid off sunni groups who disliked Al Qaeda, smashed them to pieces and thought that they were a spent force. Sadly that wasn't the case and they waited for the americans to leave so they could reform. Then the syrian situation pops up and it becomes the breeding ground for an entire new era of arseholes. Now these arseholes are crossing over into Iraq and attacking cities there is order to fulfill some mad idea about a new Islamic Caliphate that will allow them to slaughter anyone and everyone who isn't one of them. Question is what next? Well Iran is sending troops (which is something that makes their hardcore mentals in charge very happy). The Kurds are taking territory and solidifying their hold on areas. Turkey seems to be rather clueless as to what to do (it has had a bit of a hand in the whole syria mess). Assad is laughing his arse off because it makes all his shit about terrorists etc in syria look very real. The saudis meanwhile are using this whole thing as a proxy war against iran and its influence in the region. It is a mess and one that occurred because America opened the gates with the invasion of Iraq. Once that was done centuries old grievances could come to the surface and be embraced by people who were able to convince others to do terrible things. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 17, 2014 Assad is not laughing thats for sure: His enemies have conquered territory in another country. With supplies of men, money and arms. They can leave and come back when they want. He has also lost a valuable route for men and support from his most trusted ally Iran. So has Hezbo(shaytan). Assad the Nusayri SOB is 100% scared of the developments. War is tactical, strategic etc. perception of how the west thinks doesnt matter in the ecuation. They already said they will not intervene. ISIS has taken more cities, territory and are today the most dangerous and wealthiest terror organisation in the world. The shia iraqi government has sent militia of youths to fight them. Who have no training and already 70 of them have been brutally executed near samara. just 60 miles north of Baghdad. ISIL has moved into sunni parts of Baghdad and some reports are saying they are gearing up for a confrontation and have already attacked the airport as reported by alarabia. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 17, 2014 The northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar is in the hands of jihadists after a two-day battle with security forces – the third major centre to fall to the insurgents in less than a week. The loss of the mixed Sunni and Shia town is another setback to the Iraqi government's attempts to establish control over the country's north and centre, which is now a centre of gravity for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis) and a potential launching pad for its plans to push south to Baghdad. A rush of Shia paramilitaries and volunteers to battlelines about 60 miles north of the capital has slowed the Isis advance south and it now seems unlikely that the group could replicate its sweeping victories in Mosul and Tikrit. Many Tal Afar residents, ethnic minority Shia Turkmen, fled towards Sinjar, a town in northwestern Iraq, due to the ongoing clashes around Mosul. Militants led by the group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Isis, took control of Tal Afar on Monday. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images The move to reinforce Baghdad and to defend the shrine cities of Samarra, Karbala and Najaf have transformed Iraq's newest war into a more familiar counter-insurgency – the type fought between the Shia majority government and Sunni insurgents for much of the past five years. Last night an Iraqi army helicopter was shot down during clashes near the city of Falluja, killing the two-man crew, security officials said. The fate of up to 2,000 Shia members of the Iraqi army who were captured by Isis in Tikrit last Wednesday remains unknown, and was a lightning rod for new recruits who continued to flood civic centres in the capital on Monday trying to make their way to the frontlines. Isis's claim to have killed 1,700 of the men remains unverified, although photographs and videos of at least 50 being executed as they lay face down in the sand with their hands tied have been verified. The United Nations human rights chief, Navi Pillay, said the executions appeared to be a war crime. "Although the numbers cannot be verified yet, this apparently systematic series of cold-blooded executions, mostly conducted in various locations in the Tikrit area, almost certainly amounts to war crimes," she said. Iraqi officials suggested the jihadists would probably calculate that their captives were of more value to them alive and could be used as leverage in prisoner swaps. The shocking images have been widely circulated across Iraq, even though all social media platforms have been blocked in an effort to prevent the jihadists from communicating with each other. Sunni communities in south Tikrit say they have been horrified by the scenes of bound and helpless men being shot dead and they have rallied tribes to ensure Isis cannot take their areas or reach the capital. While some Sunni communities are standing up to the threat posed by the group, many others are hunkering down or fleeing en masse, as Isis imposes a ruthless and inflexible interpretation of Islamic law on them. More than 700,000 people are thought to have fled to the Kurdish north. Mosul residents who have stayed behind told the Guardian that women were prevented from leaving their homes in some areas and that taxes were being demanded from minority communities. "All we want is security," said a man who identified himself as Haidar, in a west Baghdad tearoom. "If the Americans send their soldiers back, I would accept, and so would most of us. If they're only sending planes with missiles, it means they are not serious." A senior interior ministry official, Alaa al-Ta'i, said: "This is the biggest threat to the country of modern times. Federalism is the only real way out of this inferno. Partition might be another option, but the neighbouring states would never accept that, because of what it would mean for them." Militias continue to occupy the streets in shopping districts in the predominantly Shia eastern suburbs of Baghdad. However, their posture was more one of reassurance than of belligerence. "They are trying to send a message," said a Sunni resident from the city's west. "They are attempting to assert themselves over the security forces, but backing off if they are not allowed into an area. Their reach depends on the will of the local [military] commander." It remains unclear to whom the Shia irregulars will report when they reach the battlelines. The Iranian-backed Asaib ahl al-Haq has primacy among the paramilitaries and is extremely influential in government circles. "No one is prepared to defy them," said Ammar Hussein, a resident of Karrada. "They get what they want, and they will lead the fightback." Another man, a barber who signed up on Sunday to fight, said he believed conditions had been fulfilled to fight a jihad, or holy war – which was called for by the highest Shia authority in Iraq, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, last Friday. "Fighting for our dignity, our land and our sect are the three tenets," he said. "But for me, this is a religious calling more than anything else. That is the main reason I am going to fight." The UN said it had relocated 58 staff members from Baghdad, and may move additional personnel out of the Iraqi capital in coming days because of growing security concerns. The UN deputy spokesman Farhan Haq was asked whether the UN stood by his statement on Friday that Baghdad was safe. "I think the fact that we're going to be relocating some staff speaks for itself," Haq said. "The situation has changed on the ground in the last few days and we are adjusting our posture accordingly." He said 200 UN international staff were in Baghdad, and the 58 now in the Jordanian capital, Amman, would be relocated to Irbil in Iraqi Kurdistan. "We are going to continue with our activities whether political or humanitarian or otherwise," Haq said. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 17, 2014 The difficulty for Iran and the US to deal with this situation is: The very same vehicles and hardware used by the iraqi army is used by the ISIL. So even from the air how can you bomb them without bombing your own in the process i.e. how do you differentiate your guys from them. Case in point the iraqi army recently killed kurdish forces thinking they are terrorist. Another potential problem is: the character of the fighters themselves. You have battle hardened jihadis against children, youth and men who dont have the desire or will to fight. thats why they keep running away. Another potential problem for iran is: Can it afford to fight these people. The iranian economy is badly damaged, the iranians have already provided men and materials to shia in syria and they have not attained any success whatsoeve. By using hezboshaytan have they gained success in a few villages bordering the lebonese border. Another factor that is extremely challenging is the secretive nature of the ISIL. They can move around freely across huge territory. Not alot is known about them. The only advantage the opponents of ISIL have is airpower: what are you going to use airpower on that will weaken these people when they dont have any permanently based locations that are centralised. Furthermore: the airpower advantage has not worked in ramadi or faluja. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CidanSultan Posted June 17, 2014 Ayad alawi "the Iraqi soldiers run away because they have nothing to fight for" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHBQpJrdP4c Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites