Somalia Busiest Ports Of The Future

[Dr_Osman]

I thought I was raised this issue up because it is serious discussion that needs to be had, which area in Somalia will be the busiest port in the future? some of the things that matter in port activity include infrastructure capability and strategical location.

 

As far as Mogadishu port is concerned it has both the strategical and infrastructure capability to be very fast port, it is a deep sea port plus it's located in an area that is reachable by many states without being a huge transport cost issue. But the thing that may kill mogadishu port will be the fact it will be privatized in the future and managed by turks who most likely will limit any domestic use of it and keep it strictly for big ticket item foreign users. If that scenario turns out to be true the only winner can be Kismayo in the south. Kismayo has a deep sea port and also is within reach of many states without being a costly burden transport wise. If the above scenario turns out to be true, that means Kismayo may end up potentially servicing the south starting from mogadishu to SW3 to jubaland and NFD.

 

If the above scenario doesn't turn out to be true, kismayo will need to be competitive on the taxation front in order out-beat mogadishu.

 

As for the other ports such as Bosaso and Berbera. If we look at Bosaso it has one bonus it's strategical location but it also has a negative it infrastructure capacity. So it's lower tax and fast service must be a key to keep it viable because transport wise it will always win on that front since it is closer to reach bosaso from beletwayn or warder then to berbera which means less transport cost. But Bosaso key will really need to be start looking into infrastructure capacity if it can get this, it will have ticked both the conditions of strategical positioning and infrastructure.

 

Berbera port is also a deepsea port with good infrastructure in it's favor but it's downfall is strategical location, it's next to jabuti which is international style port servicing non somali parts of ethiopia while berbera also services ethiopia but it's mainly the somali zone like jigjiga and hargeisa areas due to its location and cheaper transport cost. Infact it's not even all the somali zone, most of the warder area go through mudug onto bosaso.

 

I can't honestly envision Berbera changing because it already has the infrastructure but it's positioning kills it, it can't service most of other somalia states because of higher transport costs who would go to Bosaso which is closer and at the same time where their lifeline is ethiopia the most productive parts the non somali zones are jabuti clientele. Even within the somali zone it is still shared with Puntland, especially the areas that count like warder which have more livestocks and is more feasible for them to go thru Bosaso.

 

As for Bossaso prediction if the infrastructure caoacity is changed, it will quadruple the traffic happening since the port already has the strategical positioning being close to most livestock areas such as warder,sool,sanaag,mudug,hiran,nugal,galgadud,bari.

 

As for mogadishu I envision that it will be foreign owned in the future and most somali businesses will be basically out-priced out by foreign clientele using the port and they will most likely change to Kismayo.

 

Puntland and Jubbaland have good bright future ahead of them if everything pans out how I said. Even if it doesn't Kismayo jubaland and nfd areas still would be a good meal ticket and the current arrangement if it stays in place in Bosaso

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Mogadishu is good for domestic Somalia affairs , Bosaaso is for local use

 

Kismayo will be crippled by the Lamu project

 

 

Berbera has allot of potential all it needs is investment it needs to be the gate way for the Entire Ethiopia land locked Ethiopia. Berbera is very strategic also in the region. Today Ethiopia is solely under the grip of Djibouti and Dubai Port. It can be the biggest Transnet terminal port. It will take some time and it needs the investment but once the Money start rolling whether recogntion comes or the right investor comes through the sdc Like the Bollore leasing project it can have allot of potential.

[Dr_Osman]

Xaji, Berbera future looks bleak my friend, it strategically in the wrong place. It is a stone throw away from an international style port Djibouti with big ticket clientele of Ethiopia, there is no way Ethiopia will shift for Berbera over Djibouti unless something of a disaster happens in Djibouti, I can't foresee it. Berbera has the right infrastructure already, it doesn't need any improvement on this front but it's location kills it. Ethiopia is gone to Djibouti and Somalia Central-East and even Bur'oa use Bosaso.

 

As for Kismayo it will be the leading port of the south, I can't see how mogadishu can hold onto that if it's port is privatized it will be locked down to turks and foreigners, the only thing I can forsee is mogadishu getting high tax returns from these foreigners but that will also kill the locals since the port will be reserved to the big paying foreigners before somalis which will mean due to unavailability they will need to shift to the closest next deep-sea port which is kismayo.

 

Besides Even if that scenario doesn't work out for Kismayo it already has the kenya and somalia trade route on the road, the customs of that alone will be wicked since all the south biggest trade is with kenya. Then add the fact it will service gedo,the two jubbas and nfd and most likely SW3 if mogadishu port turns out how I said. Central is basically gone half to puntland anyways.

[Dr_Osman]

Calm down Xunjuf I am assessing based on predictions of what will be the fastest port and I think Bosaso and Kismayo will take over. Berbera will remain how it is now servicing hargeisa and jigjiga and thats it and thats why it is dead always and will be due it's unfortunate strategical positioning to far from other somalia due to bosaso being there and losing ethiopia to djibouti which is an international port. Even the parts of the somali zone of ethiopia somaliland does have that is even shared with Puntland like the warder area and so forth, the galdogob custom at there for nothing bruv.

 

 

[Tillamook]

Like any business in the world, a port's success will depend on its customer satisfaction regardless of a particular port's advantages or disadvantages, which is why COMPETITION is the magic word.

 

The port that services a customer's needs the best will be more successful than a port that does not, regardless of what locational advantage it may have.

 

And by the way, Somali ports don't stand a chance competing unless they build good and safe infrastructure, such as roads and railways, that will permit customers from far flung regions in the hinterland to access these ports.

 

[Dr_Osman]

Tilmamook I know ports need to remain competitive and unless a disaster happens where closer ports taxes are just to expensive due to taxation or slow delivery then I can understand why it may be cheaper to go to far-away ports, the customer will make a saving be it on time or taxation But if the ports remain equally competitive on the taxation and customer service front there is no question that a closer port will be chosen due to less transport costs.

 

Put it this way an infrastructure capacity can be changed, u can seek investment for that but there is no way changing a location to bring down cheaper transport cost. So I can see good opportunity for Bosaso, I don't see them for Berbera at all unless a major disaster happens at bosaso where taxation rise to the point its cheaper to go to berbera or customer services takes to long that time wise its better to go berbera. Bosaso is doing fine on the customer sergice side be it taxation, fast service, it's only lacking in the infrastructure side and like I said that is not an automatic death since investments can be sought to change that, where-as what sort of investment can be sought to change a bad location? super fast rail worth billions of dllars? why would u do that when u can get your needs served alraedy at sufficient port at bosaso or jabuti will be a big question?