Federalism VS Centralism. Present Your Views

[Dr_Osman]

This is going to be an all out battle between federalist and centralist, I see many people arguing about this system on SOL,facebook,twitter and many other social media arenas. I want everyone to present their case why they believe centralism or federalism is more suitable for Somalia. As your aware already, I am full blown federalist and I'll present why I think this solution is the best.

 

The advantages I see in Federalism are to many to list but I will summarize most of the advantages as best I can. Historically when we look back on Somali history, we never were a united country to begin with, every region had it's own leader, customary laws, and territory. I believe federalism can replicate this and return us back to our roots. I find centralism is a colonial system that was put upon Somalia and is totally foreign to our nation, that's why their was a race for power between tribes from the 1960s till now since no clan wants to be seen as being dominated by another since every clan always used to live autonomously. So from a historical vantage, I think federalism is in our roots and centralism is a system left over by colonialists. Centralism maybe suitable to america and europe, but it doesn't mean its suitable to africa or even somalia due to cultural, historical differences. We need to stop trying to eumulate the west in everything thinking just because it works for them, it must work for us. Dubai is a primary example how western systems doesn't guarantee success for a country and as is the case with Dubai local systems that people know and trust are workable to achieve success.

 

As far as the economy is concerned the benefits of federalism is obvious for everyone, their will be internal competition between the states, you know a hospital built in mogadishu will be replicated across all states, who benefits the most from this? only the locals do. We will have a whole country that is actually developed rather then a single place mogadishu that is developed. Surely if people believe in somalinimo wouldn't they like to see all somalia developed or just want mogadishu to be developed in the future? thats a big problem with centralism.

 

As far as security is concerned it is better to have separate regional security structures becuz only a local knows best regarding the people's needs in his area rather then someone from a faraway land. Having separate security structures internally is crucial. As far as national defences I believe that should be left for the national army, how the national army is to be formed would require quoata system from each of the regional govt and their sole task should be national security concerns not local security concerns. There is also excellent advantages to this in the case of another civil war happens not all will be lost(again trust factor addressed).

 

As far as reconcilation is concerned, one of the big reasons why all the previous national govt conferences all failed is because somalis thought after a civil war that everyone can just forgive and forget and trust each other in a govt. As can be seen this is not the case. Somalis may forgive each other but I doubt anyone will trust each other again as seen from past conferences. What can gain that trust? autonomy for each region, this is he only way.

 

As far as political concerns their is a big advantage of federalism, their simply won't be that race for power again as seen in history if every region sees their region as viable. If someone can't get a seat in mogadishu, he can back to home state and rally for a spot there. This will lessen all oppositions on the federal govt because people won't see this govt as the only viable govt in the nation.

 

So from a historical, political, security, economical, and reconcilation standpoint their is alot to gain from federalism today. Alot of Somalis unfortunately want to see a repeat of old somalia since they saw that as an effective government, but the people and priorities back in the 1960 were different. Their were colonial issues and somalis united on this premise to be indepedent and the people were vastly different back then since they saw nothing but peace. The centralism that started there being left over by colonial powers was a recipe for disaster in the making, it was bound to collapse once the colonials(uniting) factor was out. Today the people and priorities are vastly different. The people have seen nothing but war and the people are even more tribal then before since that's what has helped them survive during these turbulent times. So the old somalia and new somalia are not the same people or priorities, applying systems to new problems won't solve the problem but return us back to the same path of disaster the colonials left us in.

 

As far as disadvantages are concerned, like with any other system federalism has disadvantages but those disadvantages are alot minor then centralism and needs to be worked out. For example some of the disadvantages of federalism will be what will state borders be. I think alot of sacrifice will be needing from all somalis on this part. Because even though somalis may reside together in districts, cities, etc there is always a majority in any given state and we will need to accept that whether it's pro our tribe or not. For example Bakool is a good example sahal have accepted that even though there are jubalanders who settle there in aato, yeed, elbarde, doesn't mean we are majority in bakool and have surrendered those regions to SW3. The same will be needed from all somalis where they are not a majority in the state. What mechanism will be used to determine that can only be based on the number districts each clan has as per 1991 states. For example Mudug 5 disricts are well known and 3 of those are Puntland and the oher 2 are galmudug, sacrifice will be needed on galmudug part. Galgaduud for example majority of districts are HAG so sacrifice will be needed from abuudwaq. Same thing goes for sanaag majority of districts are puntland so sacrifice will be needed from somaliland. Or togdheer majority of districts are somaliland, sacrifice will be needed from Puntland.

 

Alot of sacrifices will be needed from all tribes regarding state borders, not only one tribe that sacrifices and every other tribe doesn't, that is unworkable in the long term. Other disdvantages i've heard about federalism which are more through ignorance is somalis says a tribe cant be a nation which is true but regional govts never claimed to be nations, so that's really through their ignorance those arguments. Other disadvantages i've heard are their will be duplication for example multiple presidents, multiple ministers, multiple mps, etc. That is true and questions have been raised if it's economically viable for 8 million or so people to be so bureaucratic but that's again a minor sacrifice we will need to make due to the priorities and people we are dealing with today.

 

Finally the one major disadvantage that keeps coming back about federalism is what is federal and regional responsibility again this will need honest negiotation on the side of both the feds and regions. For example the idea of consulates not being allowed in regional states is ridiculous argument. Consulates deal with non political matters. Some regions share alot of trade, security, diaspora,health, education factors with a number of countries. For example Kenya shares a border,trade,diaspora with the jubalanders, their needs to be a consulate there, same with puntland which shares a border with yemen,ethiopia. Their will need to be a consulate there since their alot of matters concerning each one of them be it security, health,education,visas, etc.

 

Infact I believe the consulates in regional states need to be lifted up more since PL and JL also have educational ties with Turkey through scholarships, health ties with malaysia, diaspora ties with north america. Anywhere where there is strong ties on non political matters their needs to be a consulate.

 

Alot of the powersharing between the feds and regions are going to complicating and sensitive issues that need honest discussions on both sides. For example defining the role of the federal govt will be of utmost importance before negiotation can begin. This can only be decided on what status mogadishu takes. If mogadishu takes the status it is right now where the capital looks like any other regional cities, then it's responsibilities will be alot less as can be seen that's what has been occuring to them, not consulting mogadishu regarding consulates in jubaland or puntland or any other regional matter. Who is to blame? I honestly believe it is mogadishu. They can't get their cake and eat it both ways. They cant say their the capital yet operate like bosaso and kismayo does. The next question that will arise is, why cant kismayo and bosaso all claim to be capitals since it's no different in it's character to mogadishu. You see where the problems this will lead to. Mogadishu status in Somalia will have huge deciding factor on the role it takes, if it will be a federal govt with stronger federal powers or simply a federal govt with only a regional scope. Thats a decision the mogadishu folks will need to make.

 

So this idea of the federal and regional powersharing can only be decided on the status of mogadishu once that is well known and somalis feel this is their capital and not think its just a regional capital for a specific clan other things can be negiotated such as defining specific roles for the SFG and Regions on revenue sharing, National asset control, domestic and international political status, and many more areas.

 

So really there isn't anything major that I see as catasphoric with federalism then I see with centralism. Their are minor issues with federalism like some of the points I've raised above but then their are major benefits also. I think we can get through those minor points through negiotation, where-as with cenralism the problems are not minor but major (trust, different people,prioriies, and time) which can only lead to another 20 failed national conferences, where-as federalism is working today, weak, but it's functioning and we see progress on many fronts in the naion even in the capital. We never saw these sorts of resuls with centralism post civil war somalia.

 

That's why I am firm federalist not because my tribe supports it, I wouldn't support my tribe if I saw what their doing is not feasible or buyable but because their really isn't any other alternative today.

 

That's basically all the disadvantages I've seen regarding federalism and believe me I lost the most using the 1991 borders while other clans dont. Bosaso to Galkayo alone is 700 kilometer and its basically 2.5 states where-as borame to las anod is 500 km and is 5 different states. So arguments about 1991 border I think only Puntland has a valid case. Look at how many states he south has its a joke really. Even the north with alot less people then the east are twice the number of states. I had to make huge sacrifices already and its time other clans sacrifice because we haven't seen one sacrifice from other clans yet.

[Tillamook]

Only laangaab habros and some anarchists in Xamar want to revert Somalia to the old way of doing business.

 

Federalism is the most viable solution currently available for the salvation of the Somali people.

 

Let's all develop our lands and regions and compete with one another. That's the way forward...

 

 

[Dr_Osman]

Tilmamook, I know your firm federalist but there alot of anti feds out there proposing a back to old somalia, it's quite shocking some are elites like mohamed uluso. The days of a tribe dominating another will not last for long, everything will just return back to it's status quo and clans more suspicious of one another again. I mean let's be real, has any clan really shifted or disappeared in somalia? they haven't, everyone is still there. We basically fought a 20 year war for what if every clan is still around? I can understand when u fight for dominance and then win and rule the nation and lead into progress like meles zenawi did in ethiopia, but noone has really won in somalia, it's a 20 year stalemate and clans are still trying to get one on another clan and this cycle will continue to repeat untill everyone returns back to the status quo the stalemate. It's a vicious cycle with no outcome and it is scary people are still seeking it as a solution.

 

It's time for somalis to forget domination and start considering sharing maybe we will get somewhere, what has domination gotten us but stalemate at least with the sharing that's happening now every clan is politically comfortable not politically scared for his existence as would be the case with centralism. If people are scared for their existence, u know whats next? all out war eventually.

 

In Somalia today we see actal hope with federalism. We see a recovering jubbaland and mogadishu, a more confident diaspora willing to invest again, an international community that is confident to open up embassies and consulates and invest like turkey. We are see oil explorations in Puntland that is heading into it's second drilling. We seeing states compete on who is building the most roads, who has the better medical and educational standards.We are seeing political institutions being rebuild across the nation be it ministries, institutes, banks, etc across pl,jl,sl,and mogadishu. When in the world did we ever reach this stage with the 15 past failed national conference? we simply never did. This alone proves how federalism is effective and the only reason it is effective is because major clans such as PL,SL,JL are already seeing its more viable to stay in their home region rather then squabble with hamar over federal seats by using proxies or all out armed attacks. This has given mogadishu breathing space to function. Infact if you notice that most of shababs are from central region of elbur,baydhabo,etc places where they simply do not see any viability in their region to stop squabbling over power in mogadishu, just imagine if they did see viability in their region? this whole power race in mogadishu would be done for overnight. The govt would continue to grow and get more competent and stronger.

 

I mean for goodness sake federalism benefits are staring us in the face and yet we still have ppl opposing it for centralism knowing it's history and the time we are in now and the ppl whom we are seeking to govern is just a recipe for disaster. Economically it's unwise, everything is in one area, security wise its unwise if we lose hamar we lose it all again, politically it's ludicurous because everyone will potentially fight for hamar again raising clan suspicions of another clan dominating(hence more armed opposition groups), not to mention it's devastating for reconciliation, somalis can forgive my friend about what happened in the civil war as you can see all somalis mingle freely across somali but noone will ever trust again that's what federalism can address the trust factor assuring autonomy for each clan and peace of mind that they are stakeholder in the nation and also guaranteeing them economic viability that they can have everything in their state and security if their is a war again not everyone will die. This addresses all the trust factors and healing needed. Mark my word the day centralism is put upon somalis again, forget about development and progress everyone is back to arming themselves trying to make sure they get the top seat and the endless cycle continues

[Tillamook]

Doctor, you've cogently presented your arguments about the merits of federalism and so eloquently shown to the gallery why Federalism is the RIGHT solution. I couldn't have done a better job and I endorse your argument one hundred and ten percent.

 

Now we await the arguments from the proponents of Centralism. We want them to tell us why Centralism is good for Somalia, and if so, how to best implement it throughout the country with the least amount of turmoil and conflict for the people of Somalia?

[DoctorKenney]

Federalism is the obvious solution. I'd say either Federalism or nothing

 

Centralism would never work for Somalis. The 1960-1991 experiment already proved that. And why would Somalis ever put all their eggs in one basket? At least with Federalism, if one region of Somalia fails, then the rest of the regions still remain viable and peaceful.

 

With Centralism, if Xamar falls, then so does the rest of the country

 

And the only ones who promote Centralism are Neo-Siyaadists or corrupt men in Xamar who seek to dominate other regions of Somalia by using the Central government.

 

We've yet to hear a single convincing argument in favor of centralism. Not a single one.

[SomaliaRising]

The only salvation is Centralism because firstly Somalia population is small and secondly our tradition and islam teaches to rally behind one leadership.

We dont need Clannist using shaadh Maamul Goboleed. Puntland, Somaliland, Jubbaland, Hiiraanland, Barwaaqoland, 6 regionland are all qabiil states. 18 Provinces, 18 governors and one Amiir. How is it possible for small population to have so many federal states? You are misusing the Federalism system.Somalis suffer from President sickness. They all want to be president, they see federal state as small country within a country. Waa dad wada jiran, dhinaca maskaxda.

 

Centralism must be reformed. We have to choose between President & Vice President or PM and Cabinet.

[DoctorKenney]

SomaliaRising, you're acting as if Somalia's small population is something permanent. We have a large landmass with abundant resources. Somalia has a very high birth rate and our population can very quickly reach 50 million in under 2 generations

 

 

Ethiopia had about 50 million people in 1990 and now they have almost 90 million. That's just in 1 generation. Things can change and can change very fast. Somali women are already known for having a very very high fertility rate and most of our population is under 16 years old.

 

We could reach 50 million very quickly, as long as we have adequate healthcare and the violence stops.

 

Federalism is better because there is no possible way that a Central Government can know about the needs of millions of people scattered across the country.

 

A regional government would best be able to serve the people.

[Tillamook]

SomaliaRising,so far your best argument to support a Centralist form of government in Somalia is that God wants it and that it is Islamic. Now as a Muslim, I can't go against what God wants, so tell me how best do we implement Centralism in Somalia?

 

In this day and age, how possible will it be with all the mistrust Somalis have for one another? And how do we best convince the people from Puntland, Somaliland, Jubaland and the South-West states to abandon everything they've built for themselves all these years and have them all take orders from Xamar? What sort of a miraculous spell can we Centralists cast upon these federalists so that they listen to us?

[DoctorKenney]

<cite>

@Tillamook

said:</cite>

SomaliaRising,

so far your best argument to support a Centralist form of government in Somalia is that God wants it and that it is Islamic. Now as a Muslim, I can't go against what God wants, so tell me how best do we implement Centralism in Somalia?

 

In this day and age, how possible will it be with all the mistrust Somalis have for one another? And how do we best convince the people from Puntland, Somaliland, Jubaland and the South-West states to abandon everything they've built for themselves all these years and have them all take orders from Xamar? What sort of a miraculous spell can we Centralists cast upon these federalists so that they listen to us?

 

Bro, even when the Caliphate grew, the Caliph himself had only certain obligations, but the regional Governors were the ones who had the real power over their constituents.

 

There was Federalism even then.

 

Yes, the Muslims had one Army and certain universal laws, but there was no possible way that the Caliph could manage the day-to-day occurrences throughout the entire nation. It was a decentralized mode of governance.

 

So I don't see how Somalia being a decentralized State could be any different.

[SomaliaRising]

<cite>

@Tillamook

said:</cite>

SomaliaRising,

so far your best argument to support a Centralist form of government in Somalia is that God wants it and that it is Islamic. Now as a Muslim, I can't go against what God wants, so tell me how best do we implement Centralism in Somalia?

 

In this day and age, how possible will it be with all the mistrust Somalis have for one another? And how do we best convince the people from Puntland, Somaliland, Jubaland and the South-West states to abandon everything they've built for themselves all these years and have them all take orders from Xamar? What sort of a miraculous spell can we Centralists cast upon these federalists so that they listen to us?

 

 

Somalis as whole must reshape themselves sxb. It means first we need genuine reconciliation that includes to return properties and farmlands to each others, to punish the war criminals.

When that is done, the somalis should come together and decide on the future capital city. Iam in favour of Baraawe or Marka, it can become the capital city of all somalis.

Centralism with shariahlaw as our only law is the way out. We can agree that the Umura(leaders either suldaans or presidents) cannot rule for more than 4 years.

 

Centralism is what makes us strong bro. It unites the ranks of somalis. We have one major army, one amiir, one currency, one (new)flag, new capital city. We can start all over again.

Arise, Islamic Republic of Somalia!

 

But i doubt somalis will support this idea. Some are hardcore cilmaaniyiin, they want nothing to do with islam.

Others are extremely qabilists that wants "federal state"for themselves. Somali and Non-Somali knows that federalism wont work in Somalia. It is fake.

[Tillamook]

<cite>

@SomaliaRising

said:</cite>

Somalis as whole must reshape themselves sxb. It means first we need genuine reconciliation that includes to return properties and farmlands to each others, to punish the war criminals.

When that is done, the somalis should come together and decide on the future capital city. Iam in favour of Baraawe or Marka, it can become the capital city of all somalis.

Centralism with shariahlaw as our only law is the way out. We can agree that the Umura(leaders either suldaans or presidents) cannot rule for more than 4 years.

 

Centralism is what makes us strong bro. It unites the ranks of somalis. We have one major army, one amiir, one currency, one (new)flag, new capital city. We can start all over again.

Arise, Islamic Republic of Somalia!

 

But i doubt somalis will support this idea. Some are hardcore cilmaaniyiin, they want nothing to do with islam.

Others are extremely qabilists that wants "federal state"for themselves. Somali and Non-Somali knows that federalism wont work in Somalia. It is fake.

 

Saaxiib, I can't make heads or tails of what you've said. You proclaim that Somalis won't accept Centralism because the are tribalists hell burnt on having a federalist state for themselves, and in the same breath you add, that federalism won't work.

 

Yet in the same token, you say for Centralism to work--reconciliation should take place, looted properties returned and the capital be moved, yet we all know that those against Federalism don't want to return any stolen properties or reconcile with their fellow Somalis. They are staunchly against moving the Capital... so answer me this: How will Centralism succeed when those who want it the most, don't want to make the necessary sacrifices to help make Centralism somewhat palatable to a majority of Somalis who see federalism as the answer?

 

Also, I wanna add, just by calling out federalism is "fake" will not make it go away. Federalists are on the march, whether you call them clanist or not. As you know, they lost blood and treasure establishing the TFG in a destroyed Xamar. They worked hard turning it from a transitional government to an internationally accepted SFG in a short period of time. They went ahead and set up a federalist constitution which became the law of the land and blueprint that Anyone in Villa Somalia must follow. And because of this now, nearly the whole country has federal regions sprouting everywhere with the exception of the central parts of Somalia.

 

In short, the federalist are walking the walk and their agenda is being furthered. On the other hand the Centralist haven't done one single noteworthy thing to help support their cause.

 

My advice to them is that for Centralism to become a viable competitor for the hearts and minds of the average Somali they should make the really tough decisions which might include pursuing genuine reconciliation, reparations for lost lives and properties, and even to show good faith in a willingness to relocate the national capital from Xamar to somewhere else.

 

In Conclusion, Centralists must sell their vision not simply yelling federalism is bad but by implementing wise policies that bring the people of Somalia to their point of view.

[SomaliaRising]

Tallaabo, you are talking about Xamar People? Yes they are centralists, but not for the correct reasons. They fear federalism and think that federalism will make them become prey, sieged from north and south by their rival clan.

Iam centralist for islamist reasons, not clan reason.

My thinking is that we as somalis must unite behind righteous islamic leader, and to prepare ourselves for Amir al muminun Al-Mahdi. When the amiir comes, our own islamic leader will cease to exist by giving Mahdi allegiance bayyah.

So iam saying Islamic Republic of Somalia is a interim solution until the real Ameer comes.

[DoctorKenney]

Trust takes years, even decades, to rebuild. But trust can be destroyed in 1 day. That's the reality of life.

 

Somalia needs a major cultural revolution, one free from Qabiilism and other diseases. But that could take DECADES to implement. In the meantime, Federalism could at least help us move forward in the next few decades.

 

I see no benefit to putting all our eggs in one basket

[SomaliaRising]

Dactoore, so you are saying the current Federal system should bring back the lost trust between somalis, and that(trust) eventually leads to Islamic Centralism?

 

[DoctorKenney]

<cite>

@SomaliaRising

said:</cite>

Dactoore, so you are saying the current Federal system should bring back the lost trust between somalis, and that(trust) eventually leads to Islamic Centralism?

 

If in a couple generations, if trust is rebuilt amongst Somalis. If the Somalis have a genuine desire to give more power to the Federal Government, then that's all good. Somalia could be re-centralized, but through an equal power-sharing system where the Somalis are free of hatred, qabiilism and other diseases.

 

But that's something our grandchildren should debate about. Not us. We'd either be dead or at least 70-80 years old when such things can be carried out. Nation-building takes a long time.

 

Everything is step by step