Preliminary Agreements reached in Turkey between Som/somaliland.

[galbeedi]

I have been sitting with this information for a while. The changing conditions of the Somali Government in terms of security and internal squabbling last year made it difficult if these memorandum of understanding will ever be implemented. This Information is coming from the federal government side. The main issues discussed were security, financial corporation, parliamentary sets and international agreements between Somalia and international organizations.

 

Turkey unlike me and you or other governments, explained or understood the Somali issue in their own terms. They said after the collapse of the Somali state, warlords and bad leaders took over the state and the neighboring powers took advantage on the situation. Somaliland was the only Somali entity that survived the mayhem. So, in order to bring back the state, the country must be rehabilitated and Somaliland should be encouraged to the union. They did not dwell about old history or Islamist groups or the so called factions. Rather than understand 4.5 or tribal machinations they started from common denominator.

 

1- Both sides agreed that to keep meeting on Ministerial levels and avoid languages that may harm the goodwill among the partners.

2- The process of merging must be preceded by confidence building measures and multilateral agreements.

3- The leader of Somaliland should be the President of the Union, while the Somali President becomes the Prime Minister. In this scenario Siilaanyo or his successor will be the head of state. Hassan Sheekh is gearing as the prime minister. Probably after he wins the next election.

4- All international agreements that connects The Somali Nation to the united nations mandated organizations must be brought under the control of Somalia, Among them International Air Traffic Control will be relocated to Hargeisa. That process has already started.

5- All agreed to reconfirm the London memorandum of understanding which state that: The Somaliland administration Shall be the only legitimate government that represents the Somaliland people.

6-The Siilaanyo government should work closely with all other communities that reside in Somaliland and resolve all outstanding issues peacefully. The "D" community are pushing Hassan Sheekh daily on Khaatumo, but, he can not break his promise. Their won't be Khaatumo or Awdal state.

7- relieve and development aid must be given directly to Somaliland. Europeans already have implemented the London Agreement.

8- Somaliland army will join as whole during the merger. up to 20,000 are agreed to come from Somaliland. Immediately after Siilaanyo signed this agreement, he gave Somaliland Military officers their ranks. He promoted about three dozen officers from Lieutenant to general.

9- the number of seats in the parliament, will be determined by census in Somaliland. That process is already underway and some of logistical issues have been studied by the donors. Somaliland demanded 40% the federal parliament.

10- A referendum will take place in Somaliland ten years after the union. The referendum was demanded by Somaliland in London and agreed that it should be after the union.

11- Turkey will start implementing major projects in Somaliland.

12- The merger agreements shall be ratified by both parliaments and the senate. There is no senate in Somalia, they must mean "Guuritida" Somaliland.

!3- The seat of the Somali capital will be discussed further.

14-- both sides shall cooperate on all security matters and will fight terrorism together.

 

Some may say, where is the document?. folks these are the samples of the conversation I had with a member of parliament who is well connected. They could be summed up in to six or seven major agreements.

 

 

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

This can never happen Somaliland can never agree with a union with Somalia it will be a major loss for Somaliland and a win for the Koonfurians. If there is ever going to be a confederal union the referendum has to be 5 years. Not 10 years thats way to long and way to long to reach a settlement , i believe the talks will continue and the 2 will not reach an agreement any time soon it has to be mediated by a 3rd party before such an agreement can be reached.

 

 

I heard about the 10 year union referendum rumors last year but through qatar channels it remains just rumors how ever.

 

The only way Somalia and Somaliland can agree

Is that Somalia is allowed in the period ahead of the referendum to hold rallies in SL to promote their union

 

And that Somaliland agrees to share and cooperate in peace as confederal states and foreign affairs for short period of time.

 

I doubt the whole president prime minister can be reached its to senstive

 

 

 

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

By the way this is a rip of the south sudan and sudan model but this cannot work for the situations are 2 different in Somaliland and Somalia , South sudan agreed to be an autonomous state under Sudan. Somaliland has never ever acknowledged to be under Somalia this is the fundamental difference between the 2. There is no point to exhaust another 10 years and waste another 10 years and than still separate i prefer the Eritrean model where the 2 agreed to hold a referendum in brief period of time. This can work , a north south power sharing formula will only frustrate Somalia nationalist. And divide Somalia further into clan states.

[galbeedi]

Xaaji, the way international types operate is there has to be a starting point. They can't say okay to separation, but a guideline. In south Sudan John Grang wanted autonomy and federalism, but he died accidently. The new leader said : separation is dignity:.

 

For you where you start the process. You can't declare unilaterally so some kind of negotiation has to happen

[galbeedi]

ALso, the nationalists must swallow their pride. If they want a strong united Somalia, they must yield and accept concessions for Somaliland, otherwise they may not be a genuine nationalists. THe Eritrea model is too tasky for Somalia. The ten year period, in the 21st century of information highway and inter-commerce may change the hearts of the Somali people in general. They may realize or taste the advantage of the unity.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somaliland economy is more connected to Ethiopia than its to Somalia. The international community has to be fair and impartial if they wish to mediate between the 2 groups.Not to further Link Somaliland to Somalia and waste more time. Somaliland is always open for talks it always said it was but it cant reverse its statehood that is suicidal.The fundamental contention between the 2 countries is that the 2 made a union a union , equal union, both states, united there was an act of union some say it was never ratified. South Sudan was a region of Sudan which fought for independence the Eritrean Ethiopian model is closer to Somalia and Somaliland conflict. Somalia nationalists can never accept this either Puntland jubbaland galmudug , what will happen to their federal states in those period of 10 years. The best thing for southerners is stop wasting more time and lets say good bye to each other and call it a day.

[galbeedi]

Puntland and Jubba states will exist as part of the federal system. Puntland minus Sool will exist. Xaaji you must remember the international community have a big stick. they are not forcing any bone but they are not begging veither. agreements must come through them. They give a lot of aid to both sides so they must haave some leverage.

[Holac]

The international community doesn't want three Somali speaking countries at the UN assembly. We are too small of a group to be afforded such high privilege.

[CidanSultan]

I don't think this is factual. In my honoust opinion as long as somaliland secures a referendum 5-10 years and the union is ended good.

 

Somaliland give 20,000 soldiers to mugdisho hahaha... Never.

 

Who will secure Somalilands borders?

 

With every lie there maybe or may not be a grain of truth to it. Let is wait and see for the eventual result.

 

Time will tell

[Dalmar1]

Sxb Galbeedi if what you say is true and it happens, what do you think will be the outcome after 10 years in the referendum, will the Somalia Galbeed (Somaliland) vote to break away, and will it be a referendum for all Somalis in Somalia or just those in Somaliland (Hargeisa,burco,berbera)????

 

 

Thanks sxb for answering it!

[Tallaabo]

I don't have a major problem with the formation of a loose confederation between Somaliland and Somalia so long as nothing is shared between the two except a toothless head of state and some un-important foreign policy issues. An internationally supervised referendum is actually what Somaliland has been looking for all this time, but the time given should be a hell lot shorter. Also, Somaliland should never ever agree to the sharing of military as the koonfurians can't be trusted with such an important issue like our security. Any such agreement should result in the impeachment of the president and the annulment of such a farce.

[Hawdian]

Its futile to discuss any deals which are not on the table. But Surely any decent Humanbeing will support the right of the People Of Somaliland in their continued fight for independence and recognition in the world as a free Sovereign nation . After the recognition of Somaliland the first job for its democratic elected president is to Appeal to the UN courtsin Hague to start an genocide trail Ala Bosnia style on grounds of millions of killed injured and dispossed somalilanders by the Somalia Siad Barre Gov ,and their army. History and justice is on side of the Somaliland people and their republic.may they Somaliland live free and in peace for ever . For anyone who fancy Moqadishu and the Boli Qaraan days ( dictatorial system ofSaid Barre) well I hav heard Air Burundi has som good deals on offer.

[CidanSultan]

I doubt this is the case. What galbeedi is betting on is a a few words from people who are themselves beig protected by amisom and who are in daily fear of Alshabab. There is also a nostalgia in the south over somaliland one based not on nationalism but on unity straight to hell for all of us.

 

A few things about what galbeedi says cought my eye one of them being the somaliland army being sent south which no Somalilander would ever agree to. Another thing is 10 year referendum seems a hard sell to the lander population but let me give you the benefit of doubt on that.

 

Galbeedi wrongly in my opinion assumes some sort of brief unification will somehow start to encourage long term unity. I will tell you right now. Somalilanders would never join Somalia if it was the UAE and they offered to confederation, the capital, presidency and very cabinet ministery.

 

This is the reality.

 

Somaliland has two options and that has never been in doubt the world is a mediator not a body to force anyone's hands.

 

One: to carry on the current path it is on and develop, grow organically or seek international recognition through negotiation and comprimise.

 

Recognition would make certain things easy however it is not the philosophers stone. Many governments in Africa have recognition but remain less viable then somaliland.

 

Somaliland has more to lose and more to gain in this situation and a few politicians who probably speaking from their behind is no gurentee.

 

In fact I am 99% sure this is fake.

 

Even in 10 years time Somalia will be the same.

 

However it is in Somalilands interest to attain the referendum and permanently finalise this failed union without giving its soldiers, territory or any major confession.

 

And spend those 5-10 years planning our exist and out goals in East African region.

 

 

A nation like somaliland that has achieved what it has achieved without recognition I sincerely believe would become a regional supper power and that is what Somalis in the south and in the desert wastelands are scared of.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Tallaabo under no circumstance can security and other issues be shared with the south even in a brief period of time i am also strongly opposed for SL to send troops to Somalia. Eventually it will get to a referendum the koonfurians will try to prolong this the Qataris suggested in 2013 a 10 year time this is ridiculous. Somaliland should exhaust these talks with them and eventually trust me the Europeans if there is mediating factor there will be a reasonable out come. The reason why the Koonfurians said lets meet every 3 months its to prolong these talks before a settlement is reached, they to know it. Problem the union 1960 seemed attractive because Somalilanders never knew koonfurians and their politicking and the way they do things, but today there is nothing and ofcourse 23 years of independence cant be reversed in 2 years time it will be a quarter century. I believe Somaliland should continue these talks its going to be very interesting.

[galbeedi]

Ciidansuldaan, Somaliland is not sending the army to south. If the there is a union the amount of solders allowed under this agreement. they don't need to go immediately, there could be a period were they could still remain in Somaliland

 

Also you said Somalia could be the same in ten years. Actually there won't be any union unless the south and Mogadishu are stabilized. It is peaceful Somalia join already peaceful Somaliland. You may even share the first five years only currency, foreign policy, trade( flights and vehicle traffic), . you may even see growth, jobs and harmony. We will spend our money in infrastructure instead of security.

 

Dalmer, after ten years of business, economic growth, direct modern airline travel and strong nation that can't be bullied by the neighbors, The Somaliland people will vote to stay in this Union.