Puntland Population 2.4 Million

[Dr_Osman]

by the way i think the galkayo zone wih yellow makes no sense, even burco is green. Read this xunjuf, this is more macquul khatumite says it like it is to snm about tiro of macivity macherten and im sure a hag will tell u the same.

 

http://qalinmaal.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/wuxu-yidhi-jilib-majeerteen-ah-ayaa-ka.html

[Dalmar1]

Have you heard the news, that qeybdiid and gaas are talking about uniting Galmudug into Puntland, with the promise that Saca.d will get vice President, two ministers and three vice ministers and a disclosed amount of money!

 

Sxb i think its true, because qeybdiid fired its ministers and is in talks now with Puntland, and don't forget gaas is now in galkacyo under secret meeting!

 

If its true, then a big blow toward everyone and a big positive step for reer Puntland!

[Homunculus]

<cite>

@Dalmar1

said:</cite>

Have you heard the news, that qeybdiid and gaas are talking about uniting Galmudug into Puntland, with the promise that Saca.d will get vice President, two ministers and three vice ministers and a disclosed amount of money!

 

Sxb i think its true, because qeybdiid fired its ministers and is in talks now with Puntland, and don't forget gaas is now in galkacyo under secret meeting!

 

If its true, then a big blow toward everyone and a big positive step for reer Puntland!

 

Interesting, this will improve the chances of federalism since this will eliminate the argument against clan enclaves.

[Dr_Osman]

I read that on waagacusub, I think it will happen because if it don't then there is no reason for abudwaq folks to join a central region administration. Plus what really supports the idea of galmudug of joining puntland is the fact that there is no administration created where two states share a state, it goes to one administration or the other. A good example is jubbaland it's 3 states jubba dhexe, jubba hose, gedo whereas the RRA folks will be bay,bakool,shabelle hose. Notice that jubbaland didn't share bakool with the RRA folks? because their are jubbaland folks who do live in the region of bakool but it went to the RRA folks completely. So this business of sharing a state between administration looks like it aint going to happen and galmudug will most likely join Puntland due to the fact the majority in mudug are from Puntland.

 

I honestly think the way Somalia is going to be shaped in federation will be. Jubbaland consisting of Jubba hose, Jubba dhexe, Gedo. Followed by RRA folks consisting of bay,bakool,shabelle hose. Followed by Central region consisting of Galgaduud, Shabelle Dhexe, Hiran. That makes sense notice the prime number 3 states? and notice Shabelle each one will have access to a port Barawe for Central region, Merca for RRA folks, Kismayo for Sahal folks. Bosaso for Puntland. Berbera for Somaliland.Mark my words it will turn out like that because it any administration that is formed needs to be more then 2 states and needs to have economic viability and geographic proximities.

 

I am still pulling my hair out about SOOL and Sanaag because they don't have economic viability to be their own administration but they do have access to a coastline such as las qoray even though their is no port but it could be one in the future. The second thing that makes wonder is since all the other regions are on that prime number of 3 states, how will puntland and somaliland look with 5 states? the third thing that pulls my hair out is geographically Sool and Sanaag are closer to Puntland, for example Sanaag is way closer to Bari then Waqoyi Galbeed, Sool is way closer to Garowe then Burco. So geographically speaking it seems like it's going to Puntland and economically speaking Sool and Sanaag depend on Bosaso port not so much Berbera due to the distance.

 

Finally what blows my mind away is the only sound reason sool and sanaag can join Somaliland is can Puntland cope with such a massive region and population? this in itself would make it economically unviable. So it will be interesting to see what happens to sool and sanaag under federation, but from what I can see it's most likely going to Puntland either thru a referendum done on those regions or it will end up being it's own state and will recieve extra financial support to build key infrastructure such as airports and ports.

 

I honestly can't think of a valid reason why sool or sanag would join somaliland not economically or geographically speaking and definitely not through the people's will either. The only thing I can think of that those regions would join somaliland is if the hargeisa boys say we won't join the federation without the historical waqoyi borders, that is the only bargaining chip, I can see from the SNM which can make us reconsider. But the idea of historical borders on it's own won't convince us, if they use that argument on top of a realistic argument that is valid today such as federation and threaten that they won't join the federation without all waqoyi, then fair enough cause that can affect our federation which is a reality on the ground. I also can see if they do join federation, sool and sanaag cant refuse joining waqoyi without looking clannish cause their using the somali unity card now, however if the hargeisa boys say we will join federation with all of north border intact then I cant see how makhir or dervish can refuse without looking clannish, they will be put in between a rock and hard place then. So it's in their interest now to form a mamul and get it recognized using the somali unity card before the north does join federation and then the ssc area argument look totally clannish and noone will tolerate and they know. The only thing I can suggest to them is if you want a mamul, you need to convince hj,hy,makhir and all ssc to join it because there is none of this business of clan borders it's total jurisdiction borders of a state fully or nothing not parts of.

[Dr_Osman]

The way I see the Puntland Somaliland borders tussle ending is in the following scenario; The first scenario would be the SNM saying we will join federation on the condition of the northern borders remaining, knowing how important federation is to Puntland, I can see them doing a tanasul.

 

The Second scenario I see is Puntland arguing for a referendum in the disputed areas and letting the people decide if they will join Puntland or Somaliland. It's hard for Somaliland to refuse without undermining their own democracy of people's will. I think this will go in the favor of the Puntland if it went down to a vote considering the largest subclan of the dervishes are supportive of Puntland and only 2 sub clans aren't, the rest basically are.

 

The third scenario I see is Dervish pull a wild card out and say we want an administration for Sool,Sanaag,Togdheer because of the disputes between Somaliland and Puntland and the fact those three states have been neglected by both administrations and it's in the people's interest of those states to have it's own administration. The wildcard in this scenario is they will need to convince makhir,hy,hj that live in those areas of it. They could use the marital ties, neglect from the other two administrations economically, Historical borders which somaliland used to be two regions hargeisa and burco to convince them. This would have an advantage for SNM since alot of the subclans HY and HJ could play a leading role in the new state same with the makhir and dervishes. Las qoray would definitely be their future port. HA and Awdal can share the two states and power respectively

 

The fourth scenario I see is a sneaky one from Puntland using Sool and Sanaag to bring Somaliland into federation and saying if you don't join, then we will not cede those two regions. Ahmed Karash smirk gives me the idea, that this is very possible scenario also. It seems like they know what their doing and not concerned, it's like they have something up their sleeves but we just don't know what, all we can do is speculate but I think one of those four scenarios will be played out in the disputed regions.

 

 

We will see how it turns out, but I would like to see second scenario played out, because I want to see SOOL oil pipelines connected to EYL and we get a tax on it. I am selfish but hey I gotta look after my interest if things don't turn out my way. But in all honesty the third option is best for those regions from a historical standpoint since colonial borders somaliland was always two regions east and west and the SNM and Harti in particularly in the east have been neglected economically and politically such as HY and it's more balanced to in numbers.

[Dr_Osman]

Back to the figures provided in the most comprehensive census since the 1980s using multiple techniques, satellite imagery, inclusive of urban,rural,idp settlements, watering points of nomads, land software, afripopulation datasets, kenya settlement comparisons and ontop of that undp,un and other agencies census included. Their has not been a census like this untill the UNFPA comes out. The closest that comes to it is the UNDP one which only works of the 1980s census and then applies UN growth estimates formulas not including rural, watering points, satellite imagery, datasets or comparative settlements techniques from known censused towns in kenya or ethiopia. What really kills the UNDP count is the fact it doesnt factor in the shift of population from 91 back to clan strongholds and just uses an incrementive u.n formula to predict growth from the 1980 census. Boys wallahi nothing matches this estimate in the market, it's the strongest estimation we have since the 1980s just look at the sheer evidence nothing can refute it till UNFPA.

 

Now let me analyse some of what my leaders kept reiterating about this 1/3 of somalia. I took it to mean land-size but I think there is more to it as I shall explain. Lets first understand what 1/3 is. In percentage terms this is equivalent of 33% but in mathematic terms we must round of to the next 0 which would be 30% rather then 40%.

 

Now that is out of the way, lets look at what farole meant Puntland is 1/3 of Somalia and if the man has justification to say so. 30% from the most comprehensive population estimation of Somalia would mean 30% from 8.7 million national population. This will equal 2.6 million population. As we know Puntland is roughly 2.1 million without Sool or Sanaag. Sanaag and Sool Must be the other 500k because when somaliland election was done the only places that voted were in snm and awdal territories. The boys in Makhir and Sool didn't vote. We know from this that 500k must be located in awdal and snm territories combined and the rest logically must be Dervish and Makhir combined and it fits quite well into Puntland 30% of somalia statements from farole constantly. 2.1 + 500k=2.6 million which in turns equals 30% of Somalia.

 

I will be digging very deep for the breakdown of population in the north and south since these areas are not inclusive of one clan such as ddsi and puntland where even their regions were simply dubbed their clan name by colonialists since there was nothing else there to argue unlike other southern and northern regions. I don't want to give any population to a clan they do not deserve regardless who it is and everyone must know what each clan numbers are and stop this nonsense of asking for things that you do not deserve nor warrant because this is an injustice in itself and will only lead to destruction in the end, everyone must accept what is rightfully theirs and be content with it.

[Adnan1508736697]

^^^you assuming wow, I can pull numbers so please stop stoping opinions as facts

[Dr_Osman]

Adnan trolling isn't considered evidence my friend, and I want my friend Xunjuf in here right now, I am shocked he hasn't entered cause I want to humiliate him. Xunjuf come out come out wherever you are