AMISOM,AL-SHABAAB AND THE LANDS:A DEADLY TRIO THAT CAN DESTROY SOMALI UNITY AND

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

AMISOM,AL-SHABAAB AND THE LANDS:A DEADLY TRIO THAT CAN DESTROY SOMALI UNITY AND INTEGRITY

March 25, 2014

By Ali H Abdulla

 

I have an acquaintance who used to be a colonel in the Somali Army in its days of glory. We recently talked about AMISOM and its purported contribution to the stabilization of Somalia. As we all know, these forces are drawn from countries ruled by corrupt and dictatorial regimes. Some of the AMISOM member countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya have had rocky relations with Somalia and may have their own hidden agendas.

 

If you are shocked at the Russian takeover of the Crimea, wait a few years for an Ethiopian takeover of a slice of Somali that will give it access to the vast Indian Ocean. The thousands of visible Ethiopian forces in AMISOM are supplemented with thousands disguised as poor migrants who lurk in most urban centers in Somalia waiting for a Crimean moment.

 

The conversation with the ex-colonel mushroomed into areas such as the financial incentives that these alien forces receive as compensation for the risks involved in working in such a dangerous environment.

 

Somali Airforce

Somali Air force, 1960

We took a calculator and started multiplying the numbers. To our astonishment and bewilderment, we came up with an astronomical figure even when we tried to minimize the number of these forces. If we base our calculation on an average force of 20,000 and assume that each soldier costs the generous International community $1,200 a month, AMISOM countries receive $288 million annually, a figure that probably exceeds the annual budget of the Somali government. A large portion of these funds will not benefit the foot soldiers but will surely be diverted into the coffers of the dictatorial regimes.

 

Given these ridiculous figures, one should not be surprised at the recent frank assertion of an AMISOM soldier from Burundi who inadvertently exposed the undeclared strategy of AMISOM member countries of perpetuating the miserable status quo in Somalia. It seems that these countries look at the Al-Shabaab as a goose that lays golden eggs for them, and they should not be expected to kill such a valuable goose. Another 10 years of hide and seek with the Al-Shabaab can only fill the coffers of these regimes with the funds required to extend their years in office.

 

 

 

Whether the donors are in collusion with these corrupt regimes or not is not clear. But one thing is for sure: Western countries have no desire to rebuild a strong Somali army that would cost them a fraction of the lavish funds that they spend on AMSIOM forces. The most plausible explanation of this attitude is probably their wariness that a resurgent strong Somali Army could ignite another war with its neighbors over disputed territories such as the Ogaden and NFD, Somali territories bequeathed illegally to Ethiopia and Kenya respectively by the British colonialists.

 

The current situation in Somalia can only lead towards further fragmentation of the country into clan-based enclaves, each with its own clan militia. All of these clan militias probably get their weapons and ammunition from the same source: Some AMISOM member countries. Even the Al-Shabaab probably deals with the same source directly or indirectly. UN monitors point the finger at the Somali government as a potential supplier of weapons to Al-shabaab, and ignore the possibility that AMISOM itself may be involved as well.

 

Upon failing to land jobs in their country, Somali youth who graduate from local schools and colleges risk their lives in the Sahara desert and the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe. Instead of recruiting illiterate nomads into the largely undisciplined Somali Army, the Somali government could have used these educated youth as the base for a professional army that is drawn from all Somali regions. Such an army could take on the misguided Al-Shabaab whose political naivety and extremist agenda will surely destroy Somalia and lead to its eventual domination by its unfriendly and ambitious neighbors.

 

Let us hope that the new Prime Minister has the courage to step outside Mogadishu and start reaching out to all the Somali regions that believe in Somali Unity and that can help him rebuild the legendary Somali Army. Federal States are supposed to maintain local police forces and not mechanized armed forces. The recent refusal of Ahlu Suna to integrate their clan-militia into the Somali Army is an indication of the difficulty that the Somali Government will face in the future when dealing with areas like Puntland and Somaliland. The UN monitors should start looking closely at the source of weapons for these rogue tribal enclaves since they can potentially destabilize Somalia even when the Al-Shabaab has been defeated. These lands and others in the making pose a greater threat to Somali integrity and Unity than the Al-Shabaab alone.

 

Ali H Abdulla

[CidanSultan]

More day dreams by delusional people who have a weird concept of existence.

 

Somaliland is gone, puntland has been defeated, Alshabab is not going anywhere anytime soon, Hassan shieck will be gone and amisom will stay...

 

Somalia is dead. That is obvious.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The Amisom countries are enriching themselves the conflict in Somalia=$$$$$$$$$$