Calling all bright, experienced or creative brains of SOL!

[OdaySomali]

*Blessed;982162 wrote:

Horta $250 milka yaa bixinaya? Ma rabo in aan sidii kuwii riwayada lacag aan jirin dadka isu qabsano

Maxaaba la isu qabsanayaa? Lama bixinayo lacag. This is not one of those initiaves where various NGO's or 'regional governments' are taken as the implementees. This is a privately owned and managed initiative. And we are only talking about £150m pounds here so it is not particularly a large amount of money. And the best way to manage such a process is to work discreetly without fanfare and so as not to catch unwanted attention.. under the radar so to speak.

 

Any suggestions from you Blessed as someone who is on the ground?

[Abu-Salman]

OdaySomali;982161 wrote:

Thanks Abu Salman, I do have a few questions.

 

1. How would you avert land speculation?

 

2. How would training a civil service make the money go further? We are not seeking to play or replace government or directly provide public services per se. What do you think about investing the in reproductive assets i.e. assets from which a financial return is made?

 

3. In reference to water resource management, could you provide some examples/links of Public Private partnerships? This sounds very interesting.

 

 

1. Land speculation could be countered via public land ownership (as per Islamic Law), it could be leased for definite period of time and ideally rationed as done in other places;

yet another very efficient remedy would be Land Taxation, a most equitable form of taxation that would adress the speculation scourge hindering business and quality of life: The Henry George Foundation

is promoting that now rediscovered old idea as advocated by Henry george in his seminal work Progress and Poverty.

 

This is because we pay many times over the real price of coffee, lunch or life in general when the workers are slaving away and commuting costly from long distances to pay the landlord very high rents, constantly spiralling out of control;

life and business are thus hindered while unearned, rising incomes are going to a privuiledged elite.

But land speculation also divert savings, cause bubbles and instability as shown widely etc.

 

 

2. Of course, it is the state and ultimately the wider society responsibility to foster a core, patriotic and competent civil service elite; but maybe affordable and flexible private sector courses in taxation, skills upgrade ect would help.

 

 

3. In key areas of Irrigation & Water access, there were indeed successful initiatives done in partnership with the private sector through appropriate technology as with Kenya Approtec which was instrumental in doubling the income of many small-scale farmers.

 

There are also appropriate technologies in water well drilling & pumping ranging from human powered to wind energy (water pumping seems the ideal use of this form of energy through ages and in many places): PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN LOW COST WATER WELL DRILLING IN AFRICA.

[YoniZ]

$250m is good money although scarce (nothing is non-scarce in economics)

 

Extreme poverty, ignorance and, underdevelopment are the main reasons for this never dying clan dependency culture.

 

The only way to make decent people unlock their potential and, weed out the rif-raf vampires who can't live a day without the presence of their clan idol is, to create favourable economic environment (beyond shaxaad iyo qaaraan-khariban). The one million question is how?

 

Well, due to my limited knowledge, I will concentrate on one aspect that struck many ambitious entrepreneurs with big ideas. ENERGY

 

The lack of Affordable energy is what shatter the dreams of many people, who could have created badly needed jobs, and played far greater role than the emergency-driven trade we have been going through in the past two decades. The reason why even the ones who tried their utmost, to compete with the Jeema (drinking water) importers is mainly down to the rocket prices of electricity and the lack of industrial parks.

 

To shorten the spell of ranting, I will use the $250m to create 10 small wind power plants based on industrial parks just outside the biggest population centers.

 

Every city should own its project with the help of philanthropic experts. $25m will not be enough, but will serve as good start, that can lead to raise $25m locally and another $50m from outside the country in good loans.

 

Success of these projects should be measured to how:

 

- Many direct/indirect jobs are created for the local population.

 

- Much income generated from electricity surplus supplied to the local cities.

 

- Much hard currency saved not exclusively importing nearly all basic products (water, eggs, milk, drinks, snacks, packaged foods, construction, electrical, clothing, household materials, spare parts, i.e.)

 

- The project has overall improved the life of the local population.

 

I'm sure many in SOL can put in better ideas in more detailed fashion.

 

Where is Chimera when you need him the most

[OdaySomali]

Nin-Yaaban;982013 wrote:

What i would do is, i would call all the elders/siyaasidiin/and others and tell 'em to draw up a list of everything they need. Anything from building schools, paving roads, setting up libraries, buying essentially needed goods, etc. After that is done, a bidding process is going to be opened up, and the job/contract would go to the company that can do it the cheapest. I would also look into bringing skilled Chinese workers to do some of the projects if the locals can't do it.

 

That's how i would do it.

Great point Nin Yaaban. I am a big advocate of stakeholder consultations. I wouldnt necessarily ask elders what they want because they do not necessarily know what the country needs. Siyaasiyiin on the other hand, its important to understand what their motivations are and what constraints they think the country faces. Its also important to consult the general populace and organisations within key sectors and industries. I am a big believer in strategic partnerships and co-operation to leverage the knowledge, contacts, experience and influence of key players within different sectors.

[YoniZ]

d/p

[OdaySomali]

@ Yoniz. Excellent post. The scarcity of power and the high prices are one of the major constraints to job creation and economic development in general. We cannot have a competitive light industry/manufacturing sector because the required inputs are either not available or so expensive as to render many projects economically unviable.

 

The questions that arise are: how do you fund power generation? What type of power do you go with? What is the return on investment in the short term and the potential for exit? Convential sources or power e.g. coal fired power stations may be cheaper than renewables but then you have the added ongoing cost of of inputs (coal). In the long term wind/solar energy may work out as economical. It will require research and a comparative cost/benefit analysis.

 

But you also have to bear in mind the opportunity cost, that is the oportunities forgone by taking a particular decision e.g if you invest in 1 small coal powered power station from which you do not see a return on inveatment for 15 years , you forego the opportunity to invest in large scale fisheries, agriculture, meat processing, leather products etc. from which you would see an immediate return on investment (in perpetuity) and which you could re-invest after 3-5 years.

 

Also, you may invest in power production but if no-one has the capital, know how, willingness or need to utilse the energy you produce, youve just wasted the money and tied it up in a dead project. In other words demand has to be there.

[spartacus]

YoniZ;982170 wrote:

$250m is good money although scarce (nothing is non-scarce in economics)

 

Extreme poverty, ignorance and, underdevelopment are the main reasons for this never dying clan dependency culture.

 

The only way to make decent people unlock their potential and, weed out the rif-raf vampires who can't live a day without the presence of their clan idol is, to create favourable economic environment (beyond shaxaad iyo qaaraan-khariban). The one million question is how?

 

Well, due to my limited knowledge, I will concentrate on one aspect that struck many ambitious entrepreneurs with big ideas. ENERGY

 

The lack of

Affordable energy

is what shatter the dreams of many people, who could have created badly needed jobs, and played far greater role than the emergency-driven trade we have been going through in the past two decades. The reason why even the ones who tried their utmost, to compete with the Jeema (drinking water) importers is mainly down to the rocket prices of electricity and the lack of industrial parks.

 

To shorten the spell of ranting, I will use the $250m to create 10 small wind power plants based on industrial parks just outside the biggest population centers.

 

Every city should own its project with the help of philanthropic experts. $25m will not be enough, but will serve as good start, that can lead to raise $25m locally and another $50m from outside the country in good loans.

 

Success of these projects should be measured to how:

 

- Many direct/indirect jobs are created for the local population.

 

- Much income generated from electricity surplus supplied to the local cities.

 

- Much hard currency saved not exclusively importing nearly all basic products (water, eggs, milk, drinks, snacks, packaged foods, construction, electrical, clothing, household materials, spare parts, i.e.)

 

- The project has overall improved the life of the local population.

 

I'm sure many in SOL can put in better ideas in more detailed fashion.

 

Where is Chimera when you need him the most

+10

[YoniZ]

OdaySomali;982173 wrote:

@ Yoniz. Excellent post. The scarcity of power and the high prices are one of the major constraints to job creation and economic development in general. We cannot have a competitive light industry/manufacturing sector because the required inputs are either not available or so expensive as to render many projects economically unviable.

 

The questions that arise are: how do you fund power generation? What type of power do you go with? What is the return on investment in the short term and the potential for exit? Convential sources or power e.g. coal fired power stations may be cheaper than renewables but then you have the added ongoing cost of of inputs (coal). In the long term wind/solar energy may work out as economical. It will require research and a comparative cost/benefit analysis.

 

But you also have to bear in mind the opportunity cost, that is the oportunities forgone by taking a particular decision e.g if you invest in 1 small coal powered power station from which you do not see a return on inveatment for 15 years , you forego the opportunity to invest in large scale fisheries, agriculture, meat processing, leather products etc. from which you would see an immediate return on investment (in perpetuity) and which you could re-invest after 3-5 years.

 

Also, you may invest in power production but if no-one has the capital, know how, willingness or need to utilse the energy you produce, youve just wasted the money and tied it up in a dead project. In other words demand has to be there.

How do you fund power generation?

 

Funding the projects based on my ten most populous cities:

 

$25m capital start-up from your lovely little windfall and, another $25m raised from the local population (businesses, local admins & other local interested parties), further $50m will be raised from interested friendly governmental and non-governmental organisations (angel investors) in-terms of kind loans or qardu-al-hassan.

 

What type of power do you go with?

 

Wind power.

 

What is the return on investment in the short term and the potential for exit?

 

Well, it is difficult to answer this one and I don't want go to ROI calculations which doesn't make any sense in this stage. However, my program is long term based one, where it combines both creating attractive business environment for Nomad investors/entrepreneurs, at the same time, solve the energy crises facing local households in the chosen areas.

 

You generate cash by selling electricity to both public and businesses. Furthermore, generate another income from the rented facilities (minimum of 50 different sized warehouses in each) located in the small industrial parks.

 

My estimate is that each one of the ten areas will need 30MW onshore wind project that can cost anything between $28 - $50 millions including 5 years maintenance and parts agreement. The remaining money will be used for development of the industrial park.

 

Conventional power generation is what so far failed the country. Few more old diesel generators are not the answer, you can ask that the current energy suppliers aka the vampires of the fallen. Coal is out sight at the moment.

 

Your last paragraph:

 

The answer is, a question from my side. Have you been to the country lately/started business/intermingled with the business people (both local and diaspora)?

 

If the answer to those questions are yes then think again. You under estimate the entrepreneurship instinct of the Nomads and, the need for sustainable energy and industrial parks.

[QansaxMeygaag]

OdaySomali;982166 wrote:

Overall goal: to improve the wellbing of and the economic opportunities available to Somalis.

 

- improved food & water security

 

- improved health care facilities accessible and affordable to all

 

- improved education and training, accessible to all, which is relevant and practicaly applicable in industry

 

- improved economic opportunities through job creation and support of small business. To alleviate the major constraints to economic development e.g. lack of power generation, beaurocratic bottlenecks, ports.

 

- political stability and accountability. Good governace, efficiency and effectiveness.

 

- to support the domestic capabilities (through universities and other inatitutions) of research and policy formulation and to link encourage co-operation between universities and public sector/industry.

 

 

 

So, Qansax Meygaag what activities/projects/initiatives would you suggest?

Oday so you have one overall goal and 6 key outputs.

 

You now need to dig into each output and ask a number of things:

 

1. means of verification e.g. how will you know if health care facilities have been made accessible and affordable? Think indicators e.g. distance to healthcare facility, charges at the facility as compared to the earning capacity of the catchment population etc

2. You need to think sources of data. For the example 1 above for instance, will you use a health facility survey to judge the quality of care, a household survey of the catchment population to ask questions on how far people have to travel and how much they spend on health care?

3. You need to think "assumptions". Every project has assumptions which are critical to its success. Say for instance you want to build a road thru community contracting by getting folks together, asking them which road they want paved, tender process and adjudicating etc. The big assumption there is that the community is willing to work with you, now that is a very big assumption and you need to state it in the log frame.

 

As for activities, they naturally flow from the outputs. Lets take you your output 1 of "improved health care facilities accessible and affordable to all". What sets of activities do you want to do to achieved that?

 

1. If there are few facilities will you build more?

2. For existing ones will you refurbish them?

3. Will you trained existing personnel

4. Health personnel are usually inadequate, will you hire new ones?

5. How about drugs and medical supplies

6. All the above are on the supply side, what will you do on the demand side, on the community side to tell them about the availability and affordability of health care?

 

Here is a sample logframe, am sure you can find plenty of them: http://www.psilearning.com/USF_Data/web/lesson3/readings/1_logframs_ex.pdf

[OdaySomali]

Mahadsanid QansaxMeygaag.