The End of Xiinfaniin's Peace Caravan

[Hawdian]

xiin to save your peace caravan may i take this oppurtunity to the somali mens private club. its a place where madax raag meets to solve the many issues facing us .

[Jacaylbaro]

xiinfaniin;981637 wrote:

From xiinfaniin, a keyboard waranle turned into online xerow

Marka horeba Xerow baad ku fiicnayd ...

[Ibtisam]

I was thinking the other day to dig up an old thread about Xiin's peace caravan and some predictions I disagreed with at the time- which Xiin passionately rejected and if I remember correctly called me young and naive about the true divisions of Somalis and how easily it can be overcome. Welcome to the bitter and depressing reality brother. :Cool:

[Mintid Farayar]

xiinfaniin;981637 wrote:

This week I have forced my self to contribute to this beloved forum of Somalia Online. For months it was clear to me that I was coming down with a peculiar cynicism regarding the prospect of secure, peaceful, and united Somalia. I have greatly struggled to reject the feeling. But the pretense of hopefulness only exacerbated my internal conflict. My thrill and excitement for a permanent break from the depressing Somali situation has finally gone. I suspect my age played a role in reaching such a conclusion. After all, I just turned 40 ---an age that is indicative of maturity. Even God spoke men only when they reach this age.................

 

 

 

 

Xiin, Xiin, Xiin!

 

All of this 'baroor' simply because the Jubba play didn't turn out the way you had envisioned. Ahmed Madobe threw Ina Abdirashid(former PM) and Gen. Darwiish under the bus when his objectives were reached in crowning himself Governor of Kismayo. He proceeded to cut the most favorable deal for his own personal interests with Hassan Sheikh's government in order to cement his position in Kismayo.

 

All along, you underestimated the 'diplomatic support' the West provided and continues to provide to the Mogadishu regime. You were forewarned many times on these same Boards, but overcome with hubris, you refused to take heed.

 

You were also forewarned about your unrealistic eupohoria regarding the Turkish entry into Somali politics, yet forever on the lookout for the next Messiah, you continued with glowing posts about the Turkish knight in shining armor. You refused to analyze the limits to both Turkish power in the Horn as well as the Turkish comprehension of the region's challenges.

 

A more effective approach, rather than hanging up the gloves and losing all hope as you post in this tear-jerking surrender, would be to recalibrate your analytical tools and review the Somali situation from its key power and interest configurations.

 

As you've learned (from reading your mea culpa), past tendencies of dressing up wishful 'tolka' talking points in fancy sounding editorials has only provided you with 'dashed hopes and broken dreams'.

 

Insha'Allah, Kheyr.......

[xiinfaniin]

looool@Pashtun of Somalia

 

Lammaanihii reer-waqooyi have arrived

 

Oodweyne awoowe soo dhawow, it has been awhile. It has been a well established fact that you and Mintid (Macno Yare of SOL) have a deep rooted problem with Puntland . Your two posts are clear testimony for that.

 

You both missed the point of my post.

[STOIC]

Odweeyne, it has rarely, if ever, been easy being a patriotic Somali for our friend.One only remains as adaptable and animated as long as one of his kin is holding the steering wheel. Let us wait for another round of heartfelt and poetically worded patriotic Caravan ( God-willingly) in few years. For now our friend has raised his hands up till the next episode.

[xiinfaniin]

Oodweyne,

 

Unless you have been afflicted with Macno Yare's cuqdad for all things Puntland or the clans inhabiting Puntland, my post is clear in its presentation as to what the scope of my rethinking is.

 

As to the fate and future of Somali patriotism, it is fair to say Xiinfaniin's ilk have better Somali vision than your secessionist ilk and those you wrongly termed the Pashtun's of Somalia. But be that as it may, today's Somalia is headed towards federalism, which I think is a more realistic political framework than the stuff you and your USC friends are entertaining aka North-South confederation .

 

Unlike Macno Yare's insinuation, as far as that argument is concern, federalism is becoming a political reality in Somalia. The Jubbaland scenario materialized exactly the way we predicted. The opposition in Mogadishu is losing its thrill, Hassan Sheekh despite his resistance has come to the conclusion that the cost of resisting outweighs the benefit.

 

The Caravan got derailed not because Puntland or Jubbaland lost the political game (obviously they are winning it in way that is clear to all however selfish and regionally centered). Rather it got derailed because it had underestimated the depth of the political mistrust among Somali stakeholders.

[N.O.R.F]

When there was anarchy and no hope, Xiin had hope. Now that there is some sort of stability, international support and a proper government (that has done ok considering the scale of the task), Xiin loses hope.

 

But why?

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodka,

 

Glad to have woken you from your 'slumber' with that post

 

I fear 2014 will bring even further 'baroor' from certain corners when it comes to the trajectory of things. Nonetheless, I've grown weary of bringing up 'old threads' to remind the obtuse of their previous forecasts/readings (as an indicator of how offline their current predictions are).

[xiinfaniin]

It is interesting (is it not?) that our separatist brothers feel very strong about Xiinfaniin posts

[Cadale]

odayaal 50kii taaban rabo khiyaali isku heysto walle iyo bille waa arin laga naxo. adeeroyaal sidani isku dhaama yaakhe.

[Hawdian]

After the lost of jubboyinka and the fact that madobe has now accepted the title of governor for jubba region. The dreams of federal clanism is lost The HAG in MOG are bent on ruling from Gaalkacyo to Kismaayo with the support of the IC. For some Koonfuria seems to back for others the caravan dream of entering xamar is finish.

[Che -Guevara]

LOL@Cadale

 

Opinions inflicted by desires passed as facts succinctly named a reality.

[AfricaOwn]

Xiin,

As you age you'll become more humble, this a great thread and a good read.

[xiinfaniin]

Oodweyne,

 

I didn't think it would require me to break it down to you, but obviously we must do so in order to keep the discussion in its original context.

 

A quick recap of the current Somali situation is in order:

 

1. A failing government in Mogadishu. Failing because since it came into being it failed to make any significant political and security progress on the ground. And based on the Brussels road map, all indications are that it will fail to meet most of the important mile stones.

 

2. An strengthened Alshabaab in the South. Strengthened because the only forces keeping them at bay are foreign forces. Since 2012 after they lost Kismayo, Baydhabo, and Marka Alshabaab managed to not only survive but to also continue to be on the offense, succeeding to pull off impressive attacks on important targets, mainly in Mogadishu. If anything this shows that this organization is far from defeat. And according to the AMISOM leadership, defeating Alshabaab through military means is not a practical objective that can be achieved in their current capacity.

 

3. A deepening loss of trust among important stakeholders in the country. Puntland (I know you would lough it off) is dangerously serious in its position on the question of federalism. Mogadishu leadership are absolutely ill-equipped to move a needle on this important question partly because they themselves are deeply divided on how to move forward, and partly because they perceive a potential political backlash from President's own base. It is fair to say another reason they are sluggish on this front is the fact they are still entertaining to bring Hargeysa on-board with some sort of South-North confederation.

 

4. On the deepening mistrust, Jubbaland is slowly moving to attain a full federal state. The President and his team threw everything at it to no avail. In few months time, there will be a decisive move on this front. Though many of us welcome the emergence of another federal state especially in the South-Central Somalia, the political environment in which this will materialize signifies that this will not be a wholesome development the same way SL and PL are not. This is an important miss in our Caravan's promise.

 

5. Somaliland is still busy butting its poor head against Somalia's territorial integrity if we take what the leadership are saying on face value. In other words, there is no movement on that front.

 

 

In summary, a poor leadership in Mogadishu coupled with undefeated Alshabaab, and a predatory , opportunistic African forces that sees Somalia as a project spells a deadly combination. If this continues (signs are it will continue), our negative appraisal of the situation is sadly accurate.

 

This does not mean we are hopeless. It just means our Caravan's destination has been blocked. In Oodweyne village tradition, this means "ha dhakhlayso" for we have Puntland and Jubbaland ...