The End of Xiinfaniin's Peace Caravan

[xiinfaniin]

This week I have forced my self to contribute to this beloved forum of Somalia Online. For months it was clear to me that I was coming down with a peculiar cynicism regarding the prospect of secure, peaceful, and united Somalia. I have greatly struggled to reject the feeling. But the pretense of hopefulness only exacerbated my internal conflict. My thrill and excitement for a permanent break from the depressing Somali situation has finally gone. I suspect my age played a role in reaching such a conclusion. After all, I just turned 40 ---an age that is indicative of maturity. Even God spoke men only when they reach this age.

 

What this means is my passionate argument in these boards that Somalis are ripe for reconciliation, the there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that we reached a tipping point, that we can indeed resolve our conflict by ourselves, or we actually turned a page in our long civil war to a better tomorrow is no longer valid given the stubborn reality and the resultant tragedy that's refused to go away. Though I still stand by my original diagnosis of Somali ills, namely that they are political in nature and are worsened by clannish animosity and poor leadership at the national level, I do indeed realize that I was wrong in my estimate of how long it would take to overcome the conflict.

 

What broke the camel's back for me is the current government which showed unacceptable level of incompetence in managing our twenty plus year conflict. Current leadership in Mogadishu has sadly turned the knife quite deep. And by doing so, they handed the South Central of the country (perhaps with the exception of Jubbaland) to AMISOM.

 

The country will be fragmented along regional states. SL, PL and JL are already realities (with minor teaks) that cannot be reversed. With the presence of AMISOM, and Alshabaan the rest of the country will take time to develop solid political entities. And that in turn will mean Somalia as many of us had hopped will not be. It will be very difficulty to envision a federated Somalia when significant portion of Somali population oppose the federalism framework (even though the constitution mandates it). Equally hard to imagine is how a central authority could ever develop the political legitimacy and legal mandate needed to govern when plurality of the country is quite resolved to implement federalism. Had it not been current SFG's intransigence and arrogance, this stalemate would have been mitigated. President Hassan and Prime Minister Shirdon have indeed underestimated the effect of civil war on the country and how the significant demographic change in Mogadishu affects any future political framework in the country. The situation is so bad, trust so lost, that even if the leadership genuinely attempts now to right the situation, success will be limited at best, if not unachievable.

 

Kenya and Ethiopia will continue to play an important role in Somali affairs. The odds are Somalis (especially those in Mogadishu and its vicinity) will continue to cry wolf about foreign intervention and what not when indeed they ignore the real elephant in the room which is the mistrust among Somalis themselves. Alshabaab or variations of it will continue to benefit from this same mistrust and will have a significant presence in important regions and areas in the South/Central.

 

International Community will sadly continue to view Somalia in the lenses of fighting terrorism. With Western donor money and AMISOM boots on the ground, the current thinking of containing the Somali problem seems to be gaining momentum. The Turks proved to be ill equipped in understanding the Somali conflict : on the political side, their engagement with Alshabaab resulted in Alshabaab (ironically) greatly consolidating its rank-n-file while the talks between Hargeysa and Mogadishu show no signs of progress. On the development side, their concentration on Mogadishu resulted in Puntland (a major stakeholder) resentment toward what it perceives to be a one sided Turkish aid.

 

The Diaspora is divided as ever. A week or so ago I participated a day long AMISOM organized Diaspora conference in Minneapolis. Although there were many of us with impressive education and experience, in my assessment, our differences in understanding what the conflict is all about, and the ways to resolve it were so different that we were nothing but an illustrative manifestation of the very conflict we were supposed to help mitigate. At the end the net result of the conference was a watered down recommendation that was so shallow in substance it was not worth the paper it was written on. But we were civil and agreeable. The Diaspora is not in a position to help in a unified way.

 

All that indicates we are indeed far from resolving our political conflict. The peace caravan has died in Mogadishu. It is official: Hassan Sheekh read its last rites.

 

Still though I believe the Somali people will continue to excel and succeed wherever there are laws: in Kenya, in Ethiopia, in Middle East, in Europe, and in America. Even in the parts of Somalia where there is a resemblance of law and order.

 

From xiinfaniin, a keyboard waranle turned into online xerow

[Alpha Blondy]

;)

 

a bitter memoirs.

[Wadani]

xiinfaniin;981637 wrote:

This week I have forced my self to contribute to this beloved forum of Somalia Online. For months it was clear to me that I was coming down with a peculiar cynicism regarding the prospect of secure, peaceful, and united Somalia. I have greatly struggled to reject the feeling. But the pretense of hopefulness only exacerbated my internal conflict. My thrill and excitement for a permanent break from the depressing Somali situation has finally gone. I suspect my age played a role in reaching such a conclusion. After all, I just turned 40 ---an age that is indicative of maturity. Even God spoke men only when they reach this age.

 

What this means is my passionate argument in these boards that Somalis are ripe for reconciliation, the there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that we reached a tipping point, that we can indeed resolve our conflict by ourselves, or we actually turned a page in our long civil war to a better tomorrow is no longer valid given the stubborn reality and the resultant tragedy that's refused to go away. Though I still stand by my original diagnosis of Somali ills, namely that they are political in nature and are worsened by clannish animosity and poor leadership at the national level, I do indeed realize that I was wrong in my estimate of how long it would take to overcome the conflict.

 

What broke the camel's back for me is the current government which showed unacceptable level of incompetence in managing our twenty plus year conflict. Current leadership in Mogadishu has sadly turned the knife quite deep. And by doing so, they handed the South Central of the country (perhaps with the exception of Jubbaland) to AMISOM.

 

The country will be fragmented along regional states. SL, PL and JL are already realities (with minor teaks) that cannot be reversed. With the presence of AMISOM, and Alshabaan the rest of the country will take time to develop solid political entities. And that in turn will mean Somalia as many of us had hopped will not be. It will be very difficulty to envision a federated Somalia when significant portion of Somali population oppose the federalism framework (even though the constitution mandates it). Equally hard to imagine is how a central authority could ever develop the political legitimacy and legal mandate needed to govern when plurality of the country is quite resolved to implement federalism. Had it not been current SFG's intransigence and arrogance, this stalemate would have been mitigated. President Hassan and Prime Minister Shirdon have indeed underestimated the effect of civil war on the country and how the significant demographic change in Mogadishu affects any future political framework in the country. The situation is so bad, trust so lost, that even if the leadership genuinely attempts now to right the situation, success will be limited at best, if not unachievable.

 

Kenya and Ethiopia will continue to play an important role in Somali affairs. The odds are Somalis (especially those in Mogadishu and its vicinity) will continue to cry wolf about foreign intervention and what not when indeed they ignore the real elephant in the room which is the mistrust among Somalis themselves. Alshabaab or variations of it will continue to benefit from this same mistrust and will have a significant presence in important regions and areas in the South/Central.

 

International Community will sadly continue to view Somalia in the lenses of fighting terrorism. With Western donor money and AMISOM boots on the ground, the current thinking of containing the Somali problem seems to be gaining momentum. The Turks proved to be ill equipped in understanding the Somali conflict : on the political side, their engagement with Alshabaab resulted in Alshabaab (ironically) greatly consolidating its rank-n-file while the talks between Hargeysa and Mogadishu show no signs of progress. On the development side, their concentration on Mogadishu resulted in Puntland (a major stakeholder) resentment toward what it perceives to be a one sided Turkish aid.

 

The Diaspora is divided as ever. A week or so ago I participated a day long AMISOM organized Diaspora conference in Minneapolis. Although there were many of us with impressive education and experience, in my assessment, our differences in understanding what the conflict is all about, and the ways to resolve it were so different that we were nothing but an illustrative manifestation of the very conflict we were supposed to help mitigate. At the end the net result of the conference was a watered down recommendation that was so shallow in substance it was not worth the paper it was written on. But we were civil and agreeable. The Diaspora is not in a position to help in a unified way.

 

All that indicates we are indeed far from resolving our political conflict. The peace caravan has died in Mogadishu. It is official: Hassan Sheekh read its last rites.

 

Still though I believe the Somali people will continue to excel and succeed wherever there are laws: in Kenya, in Ethiopia, in Middle East, in Europe, and in America. Even in the parts of Somalia where there is a resemblance of law and order.

 

From xiinfaniin, a keyboard waranle turned into online xerow

Great read. I too share your sentiments.

[Maqane]

You've summarized my future expectations of xaalada Soomaaliya iyo sida ay ku sii socon doonto. I too indeed share your saadaal and sentiments. Thanks abti.

 

PS: what is 'xerow' btw?

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

The country will be fragmented along regional states. SL, PL and JL are already realities (with minor teaks) that cannot be reversed. With the presence of AMISOM, and Alshabaan the rest of the country will take time to develop solid political entities. And that in turn will mean Somalia as many of us had hopped will not be. It will be very difficulty to envision a federated Somalia when significant portion of Somali population oppose the federalism framework (even though the constitution mandates it). Equally hard to imagine is how a central authority could ever develop the political legitimacy and legal mandate needed to govern when plurality of the country is quite resolved to implement federalism. Had it not been current SFG's intransigence and arrogance, this stalemate would have been mitigated. President Hassan and Prime Minister Shirdon have indeed underestimated the effect of civil war on the country and how the significant demographic change in Mogadishu affects any future political framework in the country. The situation is so bad, trust so lost, that even if the leadership genuinely attempts now to right the situation, success will be limited at best, if not unachievable.

Xiinoow, that sums up of how I see things Awoowe. The hopelessness that Somali people feel about the current leadership is quite unprecedented.

 

Timakalajeex!

 

 

[Tallaabo]

I think president Hassan Shiekh Mohamoud and his PM are doing a wonderful job for Somalia.

[malistar2012]

xiinfaniin;981637 wrote:

This week I have forced my self to contribute to this beloved forum of Somalia Online. For months it was clear to me that I was coming down with a peculiar cynicism regarding the prospect of secure, peaceful, and united Somalia. I have greatly struggled to reject the feeling. But the pretense of hopefulness only exacerbated my internal conflict. My thrill and excitement for a permanent break from the depressing Somali situation has finally gone. I suspect my age played a role in reaching such a conclusion. After all, I just turned 40 ---an age that is indicative of maturity. Even God spoke men only when they reach this age.

 

What this means is my passionate argument in these boards that Somalis are ripe for reconciliation, the there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that we reached a tipping point, that we can indeed resolve our conflict by ourselves, or we actually turned a page in our long civil war to a better tomorrow is no longer valid given the stubborn reality and the resultant tragedy that's refused to go away. Though I still stand by my original diagnosis of Somali ills, namely that they are political in nature and are worsened by clannish animosity and poor leadership at the national level, I do indeed realize that I was wrong in my estimate of how long it would take to overcome the conflict.

 

What broke the camel's back for me is the current government which showed unacceptable level of incompetence in managing our twenty plus year conflict. Current leadership in Mogadishu has sadly turned the knife quite deep. And by doing so, they handed the South Central of the country (perhaps with the exception of Jubbaland) to AMISOM.

 

The country will be fragmented along regional states. SL, PL and JL are already realities (with minor teaks) that cannot be reversed. With the presence of AMISOM, and Alshabaan the rest of the country will take time to develop solid political entities. And that in turn will mean Somalia as many of us had hopped will not be. It will be very difficulty to envision a federated Somalia when significant portion of Somali population oppose the federalism framework (even though the constitution mandates it). Equally hard to imagine is how a central authority could ever develop the political legitimacy and legal mandate needed to govern when plurality of the country is quite resolved to implement federalism. Had it not been current SFG's intransigence and arrogance, this stalemate would have been mitigated. President Hassan and Prime Minister Shirdon have indeed underestimated the effect of civil war on the country and how the significant demographic change in Mogadishu affects any future political framework in the country. The situation is so bad, trust so lost, that even if the leadership genuinely attempts now to right the situation, success will be limited at best, if not unachievable.

 

Kenya and Ethiopia will continue to play an important role in Somali affairs. The odds are Somalis (especially those in Mogadishu and its vicinity) will continue to cry wolf about foreign intervention and what not when indeed they ignore the real elephant in the room which is the mistrust among Somalis themselves. Alshabaab or variations of it will continue to benefit from this same mistrust and will have a significant presence in important regions and areas in the South/Central.

 

International Community will sadly continue to view Somalia in the lenses of fighting terrorism. With Western donor money and AMISOM boots on the ground, the current thinking of containing the Somali problem seems to be gaining momentum. The Turks proved to be ill equipped in understanding the Somali conflict : on the political side, their engagement with Alshabaab resulted in Alshabaab (ironically) greatly consolidating its rank-n-file while the talks between Hargeysa and Mogadishu show no signs of progress. On the development side, their concentration on Mogadishu resulted in Puntland (a major stakeholder) resentment toward what it perceives to be a one sided Turkish aid.

 

The Diaspora is divided as ever. A week or so ago I participated a day long AMISOM organized Diaspora conference in Minneapolis. Although there were many of us with impressive education and experience, in my assessment, our differences in understanding what the conflict is all about, and the ways to resolve it were so different that we were nothing but an illustrative manifestation of the very conflict we were supposed to help mitigate. At the end the net result of the conference was a watered down recommendation that was so shallow in substance it was not worth the paper it was written on. But we were civil and agreeable. The Diaspora is not in a position to help in a unified way.

 

All that indicates we are indeed far from resolving our political conflict. The peace caravan has died in Mogadishu. It is official: Hassan Sheekh read its last rites.

 

Still though I believe the Somali people will continue to excel and succeed wherever there are laws: in Kenya, in Ethiopia, in Middle East, in Europe, and in America. Even in the parts of Somalia where there is a resemblance of law and order.

 

From xiinfaniin, a keyboard waranle turned into online xerow

 

Far from the truth ............... a Biased Article

 

 

Facts are under the current leaders ship of President Sh Maxmuud and Pm Shirdoon Somalia is slowly recovering , Alshabaab are loosing ground and are hold up in small cities their end is near . In South people are busy with state building - Hiiraan- Bay and Bakool - jubba - center regions and etc . The SAF is forming a chain of command opening up training camps all over Somalia .

 

SFG is getting stronger both military and economically no clan administration will be able to challenge the SFG in the next couple of month inshallah .

 

 

Somali is recovering in a fast paced , Under the SFG control look how the Capital is flourishing resident are enjoying the stability

 

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[xiinfaniin]

Yes Libax, the gulf between Somalis has indeed widened even further.

 

Apo, perhaps I was akin to Nizam's (the famous Persian poet) fictional character (Majnun), the young man who hopelessly fell in love with unavailable woman . If you read Malistar's rebuttal above, you could see a Somalia shared with the likes of Malistar2012 is a Somalia that cannot be indeed.

[Cadale]

xiinfiniin the way i see it your not any different than Malistar if your adeer was sitting in villa somalia right now you would be singing another tune while our friend malistar would use your arguments we've seen it before.

[xiinfaniin]

Cadale?

 

Like you said that is the way you see it. But you could not be more wrong.

[Mooge]

cadale, xiin was big supporter of sheikh shariif. you got that wrong cadale.

[Cadale]

it's the truth, you maryooleys are only pointing your fingers at it eachother all time, so don't expect any change in somalia.Don't expect real progress in somalia without a proper reconcilliation between the maryooleys.

[N.O.R.F]

Xiinow, oo wali ma tii baa kaa tagan?

[Haatu]

Somalis don't just mistrust each other, they hate each other. Until that hate is confronted and resolved, Somalia will never come back.

[Hawdian]

Cadale;981771 wrote:

it's the truth, you maryooleys are only pointing your fingers at it eachother all time, so don't expect any change in somalia.Don't expect real progress in somalia without a proper reconcilliation between the maryooleys.

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