ONLF Ethiopia Peace Talks?

[Haatu]

By: David Arnold

 

Somalilandsun — One of the longest-running conflicts in Africa in the Somali-inhabited region of Ethiopia could be moving toward a resolution.

 

Peace talks broken off last year between the Ethiopian government and the rebel Og.aden National Liberation Front (ONLF) may re-open in October, according to Kenyan negotiators.

 

Last year's talks, hosted in Nairobi by Kenyan government officials, were overshadowed by the death of Ethiopia's longtime Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi. They ended early without addressing substantive issues of a half-century of conflict.

"There was a sort of uncertainty at the top of Ethiopian leadership and about what they really wanted from these talks," said Cedric Barnes, International Crisis Group's Horn of Africa regional coordinator in Nairobi.

 

The driving force behind both negotiation efforts is a team of Kenyan officials who are ethnic Somalis led by a former State Minister for Defense and member of parliament representing Garissa County, Mohamed Yusuf Haji.

Kenya's special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Ambassador Ali Bunow Korane, confirmed recently that the Ethiopian government and leadership of the ONLF have agreed to meet.

 

Despite recent reports of fighting near Jijiga, the administrative capital of the Og.aden, Kenya continues pushing for talks. "We're discussing possible negotiations in October," Korane said. The ONLF's chief negotiator, Abdirahman Mahdi, confirmed the Kenyan initiative.

"There's quite a bit of shuttle diplomacy going on," said Barnes, author of a new ICG report on the Og.aden conflict.

 

The Og.aden talks could bring an end to a decades-long conflict that has left a large region of Ethiopia, desperately in need of development, devastated and marginalized. But Barnes' report warns that success "requires unprecedented concessions from both sides."

After the World War II withdrawal of Italian forces, Ethiopia took possession of the Og.aden, a vast semi-arid land of shrubs and bare hills that became the southeastern quarter of Ethiopia. The majority of the 4.5 million population are ethnic Somalis whose Oga.adeni clan ties extend to major parts of Somalia and Kenya.

 

Although dates are not yet firm, Special Envoy Korane spoke optimistically of the impact they could have in the region. "I think settlement in the Og.aden could have an impact on some of the other problems of Somalis in the region."

A constitutional stumbling block

Last year's talks ended when the ONLF refused to accept the Ethiopia constitution as a pre-condition to talks because of Article 39, which addresses the right to secede.

 

"The constitution says they have the right to self-determination up to and including independence," said Edmond Keller, an Ethiopia scholar at the University of California at Los Angeles. "But it's sort of the old communist dictum: You have the right, but not to exercise it."

The two sides must confront the same issue in new talks, but "what we've heard is that both parties are looking for a work-around," said Barnes. "It's not a question of ONLF accepting it, or the government insisting."

 

"While I doubt that the Ethiopian government is prepared to accept independence or self-determination for the Og.aden region, I assume that greater regional autonomy is on the negotiating table,' former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn told the editor of Oga.dentoday Press recently.

 

Mahdi argues that the single goal of the ONLF, which he helped to found in the 1970s, is to permit the Ethiopians of the Oga.den to determine their own political future. "The issue has been identity and legacy of 50 years of oppression."

"After the breakdown, there was a lot of campaigning to show the Somali people that they are part of Ethiopia," said Mahdi. "Many outsiders have been deluded by a lot of Ethiopian propaganda."

 

But war fatigue could overcome mutual distrust. "Two decades of deadly conflict ... have exhausted the local Ethiopian-Somali population sufficiently to push the ONLF back to the table," said the ICG report.

 

In addition to several divisions of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) now stationed in the Og.aden, the government recruited thousands of local Somalis to form a Special Police Force stepping up military pressure on the ONLF. Both sides have been charged with abusing the civilian population by a 2010 Human Rights Watch report.

 

"Abuses have been committed by all sides," said Barnes. "Both sides have to reconcile that dire things have been done."

Pressure from the Somali diaspora

The research director of the Institute for Horn of Africa Studies in Minneapolis and a native of the Og.aden, Faisal Roble, accused the Ethiopian government of abuses but said the ONLF is hurt by weak leadership. "Frankly, the ONLF lacks leadership, the capacity to engage in international diplomacy ..."

 

Roble said that attitudes are changing on both sides of the Ethiopian conflict. Somalis in the Horn are seeing Ethiopia in a new light, said Roble.

 

"There is a new prime minister in Ethiopia, and they are asserting themselves as a regional broker in peace building," said Keller. "The central government has been reaching out to ethnic groups in the Somali region to find reasons for agreement."

Somalis outside the Oga.den are now changing their views of Ethiopia, Roble said.

 

"The Ethiopian leadership is not the traditional enemy they have known for years" and diaspora Somalis are putting pressure on the ONLF to reach a settlement, he said. Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Haile Mariam Desalegne, unveiled in the administrative capital of Jijiga a statue of Sayyīd Muhammad 'Abd Allāh al-Hasan, the founder of the Pan-Somali movement. Similar monuments in Mogadishu and other towns in the region have been destroyed in clan warfare, said Roble.

 

Roble said Ethiopia is "opening its heart, at least, to the history of Somalis."

[Haatu]

http://somalilandsun.com/index.php/regional/3842-kenya-backs-******-peace-effort-

 

I don't know how reliable this site is but it seems reasonable.

[Haatu]

^^What are the chances of success in your (well informed) opinion?

[Mad_Mullah]

I also support it, ONLF will control OGnia just like the UWSLF entered the police/adminstration, a lot of funding will go into OGnia education etc. Jigjiga today is already better than most Somali cities in terms of education.

 

But Ethiopia is an opressive regime and one of these days the Oromos, Amhara and other people will kick shit off in Addis Abeba and overthrow the government and when that happens we'll go Kurdistan on them. But first we need to secure Jubbaland so we have a port. Because we know Somaliland and Puntland will help their Ethiopian brothers.

[Khadafi]

Apophis;979687 wrote:

I have only learned about it from opening this thread; so if I was to guess, I would say the chance of success is somewhere between 1-99.99%.

u

 

Less then that 0.5%. Woyanes mysteries is creating a viable Constitution where the Soomali-Galbeed are free join their brothers in Somalior crate theire owm state acording to the situatom Somali-Galbeed as a nouthion .Alll fine on the peoper but reality in the minority tigray

[Wadani]

Oo soo kuwa C@gdheertu meesha cammiray. . Og@dania/Soomaali Galbeed, oo sub-clan-ka aan aniguba ka dhashey intiisa badani daganyahay, waxaan u rajaynayaa guul iyo gobanimo.

[Mad_Mullah]

Say whatever you want cadaans, carabs, even habeshis call it OGnia.

[Wadani]

Mad_Mullah;979705 wrote:

Say whatever you want cadaans, carabs, even habeshis call it OGnia.

What ever floats your boat. I can only speak for myself by saying that if I were an OG I would be a proponent of a name change for the region and for ONLF itself, so that all Somali clans in the region could be under the fold and feel enfranchised. Weren't u the same guy who had a rant yesterday about the myopic Somali outlook of my clan vs you clan instead of my nation vs your nation? U need to swallow the pill before writing prescriptions abti.

[Safferz]

Wadani;979706 wrote:

What ever floats your boat. I can only speak for myself by saying that if I were an OG I would be a proponent of a name change for the region and for ONLF itself, so that all Somali clans in the region could be under the fold and feel enfranchised. Weren't u the same guy who had a rant yesterday about the myopic Somali outlook of my clan vs you clan instead of my nation vs your nation? U need to swallow the pill before writing prescriptions abti.

It's not called "@gaden" anymore, it's called the Somali Regional State officially, in part because that's more inclusive to the clans and ethnic groups that live there.

[Wadani]

Safferz;979709 wrote:

It's not called "@gaden" anymore, it's called the Somali Regional State officially, in part because that's more inclusive to the clans and ethnic groups that live there.

I know that Saffs, but I'm talking to those who still use 'Og@denia' in a colloquial way. They can easily say Somali galbeed if they support independence or Kilinka Shanaad if they dont.

[Safferz]

Wadani;979711 wrote:

I know that Saffs, but I'm talking to those who still use 'Og@denia' in a colloquial way. They can easily say Somali galbeed if they support independence or Kilinka Shanaad if they dont.

I really dislike the term "Somali galbeed," I think it's even worse that calling it @gadenia because it reduces questions of self-determination to Somali irredentism, which has very different goals than independence. @gadenia may not be inclusive, but it doesn't simplify the issues of the region to a border dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia. Calling it the Somali Regional State/kilil 5aad doesn't mean you don't support the Ethiopian government either.

 

On a related note, I didn't actually hear anyone there refer to the region as @gaden/@gadenia.

[Mad_Mullah]

In English the region is called The OG'den. In Arabic Oghaadeyn. I don't think anyone actually uses that name in convos. Same for SOmaliland/Puntland - you ever heard someone say I'm going to Puntland this year - they say back home or something.

[Mad_Mullah]

Wadani;979706 wrote:

What ever floats your boat. I can only speak for myself by saying that if I were an OG I would be a proponent of a name change for the region and for ONLF itself, so that all Somali clans in the region could be under the fold and feel enfranchised. Weren't u the same guy who had a rant yesterday about the myopic Somali outlook of my clan vs you clan instead of my nation vs your nation? U need to swallow the pill before writing prescriptions abti.

That's Somalia we're talking about, not our region or KFD or Djibouti.

[Saalax]

Ethiopia is a state with dictatorship policy masquerading as democracy , don't get your hopes high people.

[Mad_Mullah]

Saalax;979718 wrote:

Ethiopia is a state with dictatorship policy masquerading as democracy , don't get your hopes high people.

Of course it will still be bad but not as bad as it was 10 years ago.