Why Ken Menkhaus is right and Somalis are wrong: WestGate and the days ahead for the Somali Diaspora

[LayZie G.]

What The Deadly Attack On A Kenya Mall Was Really About

 

By Ken Menkhaus, Guest Blogger on September 22, 2013 at 12:42 pm

 

Shoppers-running-out-as-a-shooting-took-place-at-Westgate-shopping-mall-in-Nairobi-2290623The bloody Shabaab attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall on September 21 was an act of desperation by a jihadi group beset by internal power struggles and plummeting support. It is intended to provoke a violent backlash against ethnic Somalis by the Kenyan government and Kenyan citizens. Angry and frustrated Kenyans must resist the urge to play into Shabaab’s hands.

 

Ever since Shabaab’s ascent to power in 2007, security and country experts have worried about the possibility that Shabaab – which has long had a network in Kenya – would attack one of Kenya’s many soft targets. Nairobi’s busy shopping malls have always been a top concern. In addition to the loss of life, such a terrorist attack would have enormous ripple effects, costing Kenya hundreds of millions of dollars in lost tourist and business dollars.

 

Yet for six years, the jihadi group opted only for a series of relatively small-scale attacks in Kenya, most of which appear to have been free-lance actions inspired by, rather than directly launched by, Shabaab. What was constraining Shabaab, even at the height of its power and popularity in Somalia in 2007-08, from taking the war to Kenya?

 

The answer, we surmised, was that Shabaab did not want to disrupt the interests of hundreds of thousands of Somalis living and investing in Kenya. Since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, over a million Somalis have fled to and through Kenya, and many now have extensive business and real estate investments there. For all of the deep tensions between Somalis and Kenyans, Somalis are major stakeholders in Kenya today. Were Shabaab to launch a large-scale terrorist attack in Kenya, the argument went, it would risk provoking a heavy Kenyan crackdown on all of those Somali businesses. That in turn would provoke a backlash by Somalis against Shabaab. At that point, Shabaab would not have to worry about what the Kenyan or US governments would do to them — they’d have to worry about what fellow Somalis would do to them. Messing with Somali business interests has never advanced the interests of any political actor in Somalia, foreign or local.

 

But the argument went further than this. Many of us also warned that Shabaab’s reluctance to attack soft targets in Kenya (or elsewhere, including in the US) was contingent on the group’s continued success in Somalia. Were the group to weaken and fragment, it would be more likely to consider high-risk terrorism abroad. Paradoxically, a weakened Shabaab is a greater threat outside Somalia than a stronger Shabaab.

 

And make no mistake – Shabaab is weakened. It is still one of the strongest armed groups in south-central Somalia, and still capable of daily assassinations and terrorist attacks in Mogadishu, but it is in a state of serious decline. Over the past two years, it has lost control of almost all urban areas and the lucrative revenues from seaports like Kismayo. Its deep internal divisions exploded in armed conflict this year, resulting in the deaths of several of its top leaders and the splintering of the group. Most foreign mujahedeen have become disillusioned and left Somalia. And, most importantly, far fewer Somalis, both in country and in the large Somali diaspora, actively support the group.

 

The Westgate attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness. It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects. If the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents, Shabaab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia protecting Somalis against external enemies. It desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy versus a toxic jihadi movement.

 

Those who argue that this was a bid by Shabaab to demonstrate its continued relevance to Al Qaeda are mistaken. Shabaab’s gratuitous violence against civilians has long been a source of friction with Al Qaeda, whose leaders have been appalled at Shabaab’s counter-productive tactics. An attack on a shopping center filled with civilians of all religions and nationalities only damages further Al Qaeda’s “brand name” and is likely to widen further the gap between Al Qaeda and Shabaab leadership. The fact that Shabaab is too violent for Al Qaeda says a lot about how extreme this group has become.

 

The Kenyan people and government now control the next move. If they respond to this terrible tragedy with restraint and respect for due process and rule of law, they will do more to undermine Shabaab than all of the counter-terrorism operations conducted inside Somalia.

 

Kenya and Kenyans are not the only players who have the next move. Somalis – in Kenya, in Somalia, and in the diaspora – also face an unavoidable and immediate choice. Either they can mobilize against Shabaab and take the movement out once and for all – by drying up its financial sources, exposing its operatives, and denying the movement any safe space from which to operate – or they can sit on their hands and make vague calls for a negotiated settlement, as they have done for years. Somalia desperately needs a “Sunni uprising” against the hard-core extremists who now make up what is left of Shabaab. If Somalis refuse to act decisively against Shabaab, then it will be up to foreign governments to crush the group. But this will entail crackdowns that will almost certainly impact innocent Somalis and legitimate Somali businesses in Kenya and around the world, and that is not in anyone’s interest except Shabaab’s.

 

This is ultimately a Somali problem, and requires a Somali solution that is swift and unequivocal. If that happens, the terrible attack of September 21 will go down as the day Shabaab dug its own grave.

 

Ken Menkhaus is a professor at Davidson College and a fellow at the Enough Project.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/22/2662191/deadly-attack-kenya-mall-sign-desperation

[Wadani]

Somalis r wrong about what? And since when were Somalis a monolith?

[nuune]

Kenya and Kenyans are not the only players who have the next move. Somalis – in Kenya, in Somalia, and in the diaspora – also face an unavoidable and immediate choice. Either they can mobilize against Shabaab and take the movement out once and for all – by drying up its financial sources, exposing its operatives, and denying the movement any safe space from which to operate

My dearest Leezi-Gaal missed to read that part, excellent journalism indeed.

[LayZie G.]

Nuune, there is a difference between what you think ken wrote and what he actually penned. READ THE ARTICLE.

 

 

PS: Ken is an educator...

[ElPunto]

LayZie G.;979151 wrote:

What The Deadly Attack On A Kenya Mall Was Really About

 

Either they can mobilize against Shabaab and take the movement out once and for all – by drying up its financial sources, exposing its operatives, and denying the movement any safe space from which to operate – or they can sit on their hands and make vague calls for a negotiated settlement, as they have done for years.

Gosh darn it! I mean Somalis should be able to just wipe out Al-Shabaab just like the USA with all its power and money was able to wipe out Al-Qaeda. And look now the USA is encouraging the Afghan government to agree to a 'negotiated settlement' with Al-Qaeda junior partners the Taliban. Come on - this simplistic blather is pointless.

[YoniZ]

LayZie G.;979151 wrote:

Kenya and Kenyans are not the only players who have the next move. Somalis – in Kenya, in Somalia, and in the diaspora – also face an unavoidable and immediate choice. Either they can mobilize against Shabaab and take the movement out once and for all – by drying up its financial sources, exposing its operatives, and denying the movement any safe space from which to operate – or they can sit on their hands and make vague calls for a negotiated settlement, as they have done for years. Somalia desperately needs a “Sunni uprising” against the hard-core extremists who now make up what is left of Shabaab. If Somalis refuse to act decisively against Shabaab, then it will be up to foreign governments to crush the group. But this will entail crackdowns that will almost certainly impact innocent Somalis and legitimate Somali businesses in Kenya and around the world, and that is not in anyone’s interest except Shabaab’s.

The Prof looks lost the plot and over taken by emotions in the above paragraph. He is just been reduced to an American Sheriff in the wild west carrying veiled threats to all Somali race where ever they are, who ever they are - victims of AS or otherwise.

 

His blatant expression is not that far from the Neo-Con reasoning of collective punishment. You Nomads, ought to fight against AS or else...Hell will be unleashed and we will make the whole race suffer.

[QansaxMeygaag]

Hogwash; how much per diem did he collect to write his old recycled nonsense consulting for the UN?

 

I am sick and tired of these "Somali experts" who can't even learn the darned language. At least BW Andrzejewski knew his stuff under the tutelage of Musa Galaal....AND spoke the language!

 

Ken's considered opinion, after "decades of scholarship on Somalia", was that Jubbaland was "unviable". Well it is now with us innit?

 

By his ad hominem argument, should World Jewry aiding and abetting extremists in Eretz Israel via fund raising and moral support be similarly dealt with as a community?

 

Replace every word "Somali" in the paragraph with "jew" and see the false logic. Go on, try it!

 

BS

[Hobbesian_Brute]

dp

[Hobbesian_Brute]

dp

[QansaxMeygaag]

^^

What is DP?

 

Read some more bruv; there are terrorists everywhere and in every society. And you need to broaden your thinking on "terror" and "terrorism" rather than what has been lazily defined for you by the Western media.

 

"Hard to take you seriously" - what makes you think I need the validation of a complete stranger? I am freely expressing my views on SOL expecting no kudos from you or any other person.

 

And I sleep well at night, just in case you are wondering:cool:

 

Have a lovely day.

[Hobbesian_Brute]

QansaxMeygaag;979243 wrote:

^^

What is DP?

 

Read some more bruv; there are terrorists everywhere and in every society. And you need to broaden your thinking on "terror" and "terrorism" rather than what has been lazily defined for you by the Western media.

 

"Hard to take you seriously" - what makes you think I need the validation of a complete stranger? I am freely expressing my views on SOL expecting no kudos from you or any other person.

 

And I sleep well at night, just in case you are wondering:cool:

 

Have a lovely day.

DP stands deleted post.

 

i thought it was pointless even replying to you in hindsight so i just went ahead and deleted my reply.:cool: i will explain more when i get back home. at work right now.

[Alpha Blondy]

abtiyaal,

 

y'all are missing the point here, ma garateen?

 

this old cadaan man has been writing about Somali affairs for decades. he thinks he can issues dictates, as though he knows us intimately. be that as it may, he's right about AS and it's large support base in the qurbaha.

 

let's stop the blame game, for once.

 

what we ought to do is....... to follow in the footstep in Abdi Iley. some say he's a jaajus, other's say he's a man of action. balse, he's done an excellent job in weeding out UBBO, this we can all agree on. groups like UUBO and AS thrive in environments where frustration and disillusionment exist.

 

Iley has dealt a deadly blow to UBBO and the like using a number of tools. chief among these, is speaking to the diaspora folks and offering them various inducements, including tax breaks, giving them land and making them feel inclusive. in other words, he's cut UBBO's lifeline and has in effect absorbed their support base into the fold. add to this, he's used the region's cultural icons like Nimco Dareen, Dahir Yare and various others to help create a new national psyche. this has created a jacbur-like sense of national pride, albeit barely woven together. people power is important to unity, even if imagined.

 

Iley has also sacked the old incompetent leaders and senior administrator and has replaced them with young, dynamic and professional folks, who would have otherwise joined UBBO. he's created employment for tens of thousands of youth overnight by SACKING the old guards. now, the youth are empowered enough to resist UBBO.

 

AS can be crushed. not by AMISOM, the KDF or the Ugandese but by Somalis. effective leadership and strategic based thinking is the way forward. with AS out of they way, we can finally pave the way forward to achieving peace, alleviating poverty, accessing our resources, creating prosperity and providing plenty for all. the political landscape is changing, it's becoming mature. all these talks and discussions are not futile. they signal an intention. that intention just needs compromise.

 

balse, Hassan is being booed in Ohio.

[QansaxMeygaag]

Hobbesian_Brute;979254 wrote:

DP stands deleted post.

 

i thought it was pointless even replying to you in hindsight so i just went ahead and deleted my reply.:cool: i will explain more when i get back home. at work right now.

I that case you are right; there is no point in you and I continuing to discuss this HB because we seem to be talking at cross-purposes.

 

Sleep well when you get home; don't bother yourself with the likes of me :cool:

[Hobbesian_Brute]

QansaxMeygaag;979302 wrote:

I that case you are right; there is no point in you and I continuing to discuss this HB because we seem to be talking at cross-purposes.

 

Sleep well when you get home; don't bother yourself with the likes of me :cool:

waa sidaas qansaxow, live and let live means no problem :cool:

[Wadani]

Alpha Blondy;979284 wrote:

abtiyaal,

 

y'all are missing the point here, ma garateen?

 

this old cadaan man has been writing about Somali affairs for decades. he thinks he can issues dictates, as though he knows us intimately. be that as it may, he's right about AS and it's large support base in the qurbaha.

 

let's stop the blame game, for once.

 

what we ought to do is....... to follow in the footstep in Abdi Iley. some say he's a jaajus, other's say he's a man of action. balse, he's done an excellent job in weeding out UBBO, this we can all agree on. groups like UUBO and AS thrive in environments where frustration and disillusionment exist.

 

Iley has dealt a deadly blow to UBBO and the like using a number of tools. chief among these, is speaking to the diaspora folks and offering them various inducements, including tax breaks, giving them land and making them feel inclusive. in other words, he's cut UBBO's lifeline and has in effect absorbed their support base into the fold. add to this, he's used the region's cultural icons like Nimco Dareen, Dahir Yare and various others to help create a new national psyche. this has created a jacbur-like sense of national pride, albeit barely woven together. people power is important to unity, even if imagined.

 

Iley has also sacked the old incompetent leaders and senior administrator and has replaced them with young, dynamic and professional folks, who would have otherwise joined UBBO. he's created employment for tens of thousands of youth overnight by SACKING the old guards. now, the youth are empowered enough to resist UBBO.

 

AS can be crushed. not by AMISOM, the KDF or the Ugandese but by Somalis. effective leadership and strategic based thinking is the way forward. with AS out of they way, we can finally pave the way forward to achieving peace, alleviating poverty, accessing our resources, creating prosperity and providing plenty for all. the political landscape is changing, it's becoming mature. all these talks and discussions are not futile. they signal an intention. that intention just needs compromise.

 

balse, Hassan is being booed in Ohio.

First semi-serious Alpha post in a long time, and the analysis wasn't bad either.