Africa's baby-boom: Population to double by mid-century

[Wiil Cusub]

metta;977334 wrote:

We have famines for god sake in 2013. We need

to stop making babies

at the moment until we fix our situation

are you really Somali? mmmm what u Qoladaadu adeer

[Haatu]

Tallaabo;977286 wrote:

Hargeisa is already half Oromo

Uff. What a disgusting thought. You Landers are too tolerant.

[Tallaabo]

Haatu;977394 wrote:

Uff. What a disgusting thought. You Landers are too tolerant.

Waar live and let live ninyow. Dhulka Alla iska leh. They should not be troubled as long as they are not troubling others with begging and crimes.

[N.O.R.F]

These reports tend to be baseless scare mongering to legislate for more 'help' through dodgy NGOs/UN. How is Somalia going to go from 10m to 27m in 37 years? Sad thing they will get Africans to try and sell this to Africa.

[GaraadMon]

Such drivel. Consider the massive reforms in agriculture, sanitation and medicine required to even support Africa's purported today, let alone these outrageous projections.

 

Even this 1987 report for the municipality of Mogadishu understood how difficult it would be to ascertain census figures in what was then a generally stable Somalia and Africa:

It seems unlikely that there will be a clear consensus on the population of Mogadishu in the near

future. Although a census was conducted of the city's population in 1986 as part of the national

census it is unlikely that the result will be available for the next few years. (The results of the

1975 census were not published until January 1984.) Even if the results are published within a

shorter period of time it is still possible that they will be ambiguous. The 1975 census produced

two population figures for Mogadishu: 350,000 and 450,000 (MNP 1984:107). Shortly after the

census in 1975 "there was food rationing in Mogadishu" (MNP 1984:39) and the demand for

food was found to be substantially higher than would have been indicated by the original census

figure for Mogadishu (350,000). A recount based on enumeration of households and multiplying

by a figure of 5 (people per household) was then carried out and the population figure was

adjusted upwards to 450,000.

 

Source

[ElPunto]

^At independence some 50 years ago the continent had half the population it has now. Yet there have been no massive reforms in agriculture, sanitation or medicine in the intervening years that the population has doubled. Somehow or other that population increase was 'supported' barring a few politically induced famines. I think no one has any idea of what a continent or the earth can 'support'. This doesn't mean that governments shouldn't plan and that rapid population growth has very real consequences.

[ElPunto]

N.O.R.F;977555 wrote:

These reports tend to be baseless scare mongering to legislate for more 'help' through dodgy NGOs/UN. How is Somalia going to go from 10m to 27m in 37 years? Sad thing they will get Africans to try and sell this to Africa.

It's a mathematical calculation. It depends on the variables used ie population growth rate being what it is projected to be. And that can change pretty rapidly. In 1990 Iranian women were having 4 kids or so now it's less than 2.

[N.O.R.F]

Then there is basis for Iran but for them to say Somalia is estimated at 10m and will be 27m is just silly. Problem with such reports is that they make headline news without much scrutiny.

[Haatu]

Tallaabo;977554 wrote:

Waar live and let live ninyow. Dhulka Alla iska leh. They should not be troubled as long as they are not troubling others with begging and crimes.

Well you're all part Oromo anyway bloody mongrels

[ElPunto]

^Norf - I'm not quite sure what you're saying. It's a straightforward mathematical calculation. If your growth rate is 2.7% and your starting population is 10 mill and you want to find the future population in 37 years time - here is the calculation:

 

Future Population = 10 mill * (1 + .027) ^ power of 37

= ~26.8 mill

 

The only problem with this is that population growth rate can change in the intervening period. It could drop to 1% in 20 years time and then the figure would be off substantially.

[N.O.R.F]

Saxib I get what you mean. The problem is, how did they get a growth rate when there is no information on population in Somalia (no census etc) and the current population is only an estimate? There have been wars, famine and migration to also consider. It just doesn't add up.

[ElPunto]

It's an estimate. I think they look at neighbouring countries where they have a better grasp of facts/statistics and project that on to Somalia. The key determinants being birth rate, death rate and migration rate. The CiA World Factbook has PGR at 1.68% and the World Bank almost a percent higher. No one is sure.

[burahadeer]

You can sense the rapid population growth in Somalia today where by 16 yr olds with more than one wife is the norm in many regions.Actually more babies believed born than all the dead of last 30 yrs combined.No viable population as poverty increases ten fold.