The recent happenings in Kismayo

[Carafaat]

Recapture of the last three days:

 

-Thursday evening Axmed Madoobe walks out of the talks with the Federal Goverment and there are several news outlets declaring the talks as failed.

 

-Immediatly, the day after on Friday morning forces allied to Barre Hiiraale, Baasto, federal goverment and the Gedo contignent allies to Jubbaland take over the whole city.

 

-On the same day, later in the evening. Axmed Madobe walks back to the negoitiaten table and signs the same deal he earlier refused, while Barre Hiiraale forces are in control of Kismayo that evening.

 

-Saturday morning Barre's forces withdraw

Or were pushed back to the outskirts of Kismayo.

 

From these happenings one could distilate the following.

 

(1) Barre Hiirale and other clan militias forces are working in close alignment with the federal goverment.

 

(2) Axmed Madoobe was forced at gun point to sign the deal with federal goverment. Otherwise he would risk loosing the city completely to opposing militias or engage in a long and futile clan war.

 

(3) Gedo folks and militias aligned to Barre Hiiraale and to Axmed Madobe are less divided then one would think. Behind the scene they seem to work together, making the coupe d'estats of friday possible.

 

What is your take on these recent happenings?

[The Zack]

There are 2 things in this world:

 

1. Facts

2. Made-up sh^#$ that you like to see happen

 

This post is the latter one.

 

http://saadaalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Afhayeenka-Ciidamadda-Jubbooyinka.mp3

[puntnomads]

Will Ahmed Madoowe honour the agreement that he signed?

Why bother when he has the upper hand now?

[Dabrow]

After Kenya shelling Barre hiiraale positions in kismayo he has left the city. This meddling by Kenya will backfire surely. They arrested col caabas and prevented reinforcement from gedo to reach Kismayo. Latest news are that Barre and his group will regroup then attack Ras kamboni and KDF again.

[uchi]

I think it's about high time the silent majority of Kismayo voiced their opinion on these latest developments, if what Dabrow wrote is to be believed.

[puntnomads]

Dabrow

 

"This meddling by Kenya will backfire surely" How?

The SFG could lecture the Kenyans when they weren't directly involved. How can they now?

What would be ironic is if KDF troops killed government troops in the next fight.

In the eyes of the Kenyans and AMISOM have the SFG just become another militia?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I said it before as long as Kenya is present there Barre cannot hold Kismayo he can create instability chase them around but they will get aided and assisted Militarily by the Kenyans so its a loss cause he will never be able to hold it. No Somali militia can confront Kenya unless you are willing to blow your self up in their Military head quarters Alqaeda style

[puntnomads]

Dabrow

 

Who sets Kenya mandate? USA

What does USA care about? Al-Shabab

Who is hurting Al-Shabab? AMISOM forces including Kenya, not the SFG

Who has a bigger voice with the USA? Kenya or Mogadishu? Kenya probably

What can SFG do to Kenya? Nothing but complain to the international community

All that matters is the reality on the ground, diplomacy will change nothing.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Puntnomads yes for now Kenya has the upper hand because Somalia does not even control its territory. Also for the west Kenya is more important than Somalia, basically the Kenyans are paid to protect their own security. If hassan and Ahmed madoobe could make a deal than the Kenyan influence in Somalia would be minor. But because hassan and axmed madoobe cannot agree. They play a significant role in Somalia and their opinions weighs higher on the international stage. Kenya is actually playing it very smart now and they just recently got involved inside Somalia.

[Dabrow]

Uchi its true, however the only way to make your voice heard in Somalia is by guns, unfortunately.

 

Puntnomad. I'm not talking about the SFG but Barre forces and other local opposition. Kenya had before enjoyed benefit of doubt by the locals but now new strategies will be outlined to force them withdraw from kismayo, and their minions will leave with them.

Yesterday over 100 where reported to have died by their shelling. This is a declaration of war. I don't think that the SFG has become just a Somali faction in the eyes of amisom but with Kenya is different and its important to differ them since Kenya has other motives then just peacekeeping.

[puntnomads]

Xaaji

 

That was my point. Those who cry about Kenya actions are wasting their time. Kenya liberated Kismaayo to give to their RK allies who helped them and they don't recognize other militias. I was laughing when Mogadishu said to AMISOM to treat both warring factions equally. Somali political positions may change at the drop of a hat but Kenya position is consistent. Kenya may actually go to the international community saying other militias are trouble makers and in order to restore the peace they have crush the other militias in Kismaayo.

[puntnomads]

Dabrow

 

"Kenya liberated Kismaayo to give to their RK allies who helped them and they don't recognize other militias. I was laughing when Mogadishu said to AMISOM to treat both warring factions equally. Somali political positions may change at the drop of a hat but Kenya position is consistent. Kenya may actually go to the international community saying other militias are trouble makers and in order to restore the peace they have crush the other militias in Kismaayo."

 

What will you say if Kenya openly said they support RK like how the SFG supports Hiraale?

Why would the international community care if Kenya destroyed a tribal militia?

The truth is nothing would happen.

[puntnomads]

Does Kenya have the strength to defeat the other militias is an open ended question that will be answered in the fullness of time.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

puntnomads;965435 wrote:

Xaaji

 

That was my point. Those who cry about Kenya actions are wasting their time. Kenya liberated Kismaayo to give to their RK allies who helped them and they don't recognize other militias. I was laughing when Mogadishu said to AMISOM to treat both warring factions equally. Somali political positions may change at the drop of a hat but Kenya position is consistent. Kenya may actually go to the international community saying other militias are trouble makers and in order to restore the peace they have crush the other militias in Kismaayo.

The only way the SFG can change something on the ground is if they send troops to Kismayo who hold part of the city i mean the SFG has no presence some are saying hiiiraale militia are SFG. But the SFG does little to support them. Thats why i believe Kenya is going to stay in Somalia for some time now. Also Somalia is doing nothing to lobby for the removal of the Kenyan troops, or call for their replacement. Somalia is to friendly to Kenya hassan the past 8 months visited Kenya 5 times and nothing has changed.

[puntnomads]

Dabrow

 

Xaaji said "No Somali militia can confront Kenya unless you are willing to blow your self up in their Military head quarters Alqaeda style"

Is Hiraale about to embrace the Islamist ideology? If so then this becomes too easy for Kenya.