Articles on Kismaayo and Somalia

[Abtigiis]

Here are two very good articles on the Federal-Central question and Kismaayo. One is by THE ECONOMIST, the other by Aden Hire, alias abba - friend. In case some of the sick minds wonder where Abba is from, I can confirm he is not a Madoobite. He is a Hiiralite!

 

 

http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2013/jun/29807/jubbaland_stand_off_resolution.aspx

 

 

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21577437-new-government-mogadishu-has-yet-prove-its-mettle-centre-holds

 

As you can see, now that what we were saying in this forum is said in white mouth, it may get some ears. Any Central Government in Somalia will have to live with the nuisance of dozens of fiefdoms, at least for the short-run. Read the articles and get the reasons.

[Homunculus]

Great articles. I was surprised by the level of antagonism in the hiiraan article comments, to me the writer made reasonable suggestion.

[NGONGE]

The Economist article is neither here nor there but the Hiiraan one is well written and deals with the issues head on (even if it leans towards one side).

[Abtigiis]

I disagree. The Economist article is about the whole of Somalia, the other one about Kismaayo only. So, you cannot expect the same details in the two articles.

 

I also think Abdi Hire offered a sensible middle ground. In the absence of the institutions that will interpret the constitution and the processes that will have to be done before finalizing the formation of regional states, I think it could be beneficial if an INTERIM Jubbaland administration is recognized, not for three years, but for 1-2 years, on the condition that Ahmed Madoobe will first extend a gogol for the clans who feel excluded and will ensure they are included. It is not perfect, it may not even be fair, but I think given the current stalemate, it is the most practical recommendation.

 

The Economist article confirms what everybody who understands the context knows: that the center will remain weak for some time, and regions will be strong. President Hassan is fighting that 'fait accompli' and therefore swimming against the current.

[Carafaat]

Abtigiis;961302 wrote:

I disagree. The Economist article is about the whole of Somalia, the other one about Kismaayo only. So, you cannot expect the same details in the two articles.

 

I also think Abdi Hire offered a sensible middle ground. In the absence of the institutions that will interpret the constitution and the processes that will have to be done before finalizing the formation of regional states, I think it could be beneficial if an INTERIM Jubbaland administration is recognized, not for three years, but for 1-2 years, on the condition that Ahmed Madoobe will first extend a gogol for the clans who feel excluded and will ensure they are included. It is not perfect, it may not even be fair, but I think given the current stalemate, it is the most practical recommendation.

 

The Economist article confirms what everybody who understands the context knows: that the center will remain a weak entity for some time, and regions will be strong. President Hassan is fighting fait accompli and therefore swimming against the current.

The 'Jubbaland' admin hasn't even set a foot outside the few square kilometer of Kismayo, but already claiming the sole authority over three provinces. If one would focus on liberating and the control of all those regions and compromise with all political opponents in the region(Baasto&Barre), one would not even have to ask anyone for recognition of their mandate and sole authority over the region but be a de-facto authority to be reckon with.

[Somalia]

Carafaat;961306 wrote:

The 'Jubbaland' admin hasn't even set a foot outside the few square kilometer of Kismayo, but already claiming the sole authority over three provinces. If one would focus on liberating and the control of all those regions and compromise with all political opponents in the region(Baasto&Barre), one would not even have to ask anyone for recognition of their mandate and sole authority over the region but be a

de-facto

authority to be reckon with.

Arguments such as 'they only control Kismayo' (which is not true by the way), are null and void, and quite honestly hypocritical. The Mogadishu-based government can be called out for the same, I do not see them stepping out of Mogadishu meaning no effective rule of law on their account, everywhere else and it is controlled by AMISOM, but furthermore the places that it claims to control such as Marka rape campaigns happen to be going on, the indigenous population under constant threat and fear for their lives as well as isbaarooyin which the traditional income of HAG.

 

So Carafaat, you must step aside and let the big boys play ii faham nooh :eek:

[Carafaat]

Somalia, Even Khatumo controls more land and districts then 'Jubbaland' and even exist two years longer but I don't see pirates campaigning for Khatumo.

 

Second, the focus should be on trying to get more legitimacy by control and power on the ground(like Khatumo does). Not trying to get your legitimacy through the backdoor by lobbying Kikuyus in Nairobi for recognition or coinciding with the pirates agenda. For sure it will lead to futility.

[xiinfaniin]

It has been a long journey for Carafaat to finally accept the reality that is Jubbaland. The liberation of Jubbaland cities is a work in progress ---naturally the political legitimacy should precede the imposition of authority over Jubbaland territory

[Somalia]

Carafaat;961357 wrote:

Somalia, Even Khatumo controls more land and districts then 'Jubbaland' and even exist two years longer but I don't see pirates campaigning for Khatumo.

 

Second, the focus should be on trying to get more legitimacy by control and power on the ground(like Khatumo does). Not trying to get your legitimacy through the backdoor by lobbying Kikuyus in Nairobi for recognition or coinciding with the pirates agenda. For sure it will lead to futility.

Khaatumo's time shall come but unlike Jubbaland, there's no consensus on the ground there, so it can't be fruitful like the Jubbaland conference.

 

As for it will lead to futility, you've barked similar words for the past 4 years, I can't take that at text value now. :eek:

[Carafaat]

Somalia;961361 wrote:

Khaatumo's time shall come but unlike Jubbaland, there's no consensus on the ground there, so it can't be fruitful like the Jubbaland conference.

There are three diffrent Presidents in Kismayo and there is no concensus among them(even fighting last week). Atleast the 3 Presidents of Khatumo have a concensus. check mate.

[Carafaat]

xiinfaniin;961360 wrote:

It has been a long journey for Carafaat to finally accept the reality that is Jubbaland. The liberation of Jubbaland cities is a work in progress ---naturally the political legitimacy should precede the imposition of authority over Jubbaland territory

Xiin, Carafaat acceptance is irrelevant. He is merely an online character in foreign lands. Its the locals that need to be convinced. And so far you have three Presidents in Kismayo and non of them has set a foot outside the few square kilometers the Kenyans control. I really think you are fighting the wrong enemy. you should focus on fighting AL Shabaab, convincing the locals, reaching out, and reach a consensus with the other "Presidents" and expand the authority outside the Kenyan held territories.

[xiinfaniin]

^^It is good for your health to accept Kismayo and its leadership.

 

The rest of what you wrote is an obvious crap