Won't bow to Egyptian pressure ova Nile dam: Ethiopia

[burahadeer]

We won't bow to Egyptian pressure over Nile dam: Ethiopia

 

byReuters

June 08, 2013

 

 

 

 

Addis Ababa: Ethiopia's construction of a dam on a tributary of the Nile is not open to negotiation, the Addis Ababa government said on Friday, as a confrontation with Egypt over the project escalated.

The Cairo government said this week it would demand the project be halted, after its southern neighbour began diverting a stretch of the river to make way for the $4.7 billion dam that will become Africa's biggest hydropower plant.

Ethiopia said it had summoned Egypt's ambassador to explain comments by politicians in Cairo advising Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi to take hostile action to halt the building of the dam.

A spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said Cairo's position on the dam was unclear and its concerns were often not based on science.

"In any case, demanding a halt is simply a non-starter. It's not subject to negotiation," spokesman Getachew Reda told Reuters.

Countries that share the Nile have argued over the use of its waters for decades, repeatedly raising fears that the disputes could eventually boil over into war.

Ethiopia has set out plans to invest more than $12 billion in harnessing the rivers that run through its rugged highlands and to become Africa's leading power exporter.

Now 21 percent complete, the Grand Renaissance Dam will eventually have a 6000 megawatt (MW) capacity and is central to Ethiopia's plans to become Africa's leading exporter of power.

Cairo argues that Ethiopia has not properly considered the dam's impact on the river, saying that a report put together by experts from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia is inadequate.

The Cairo government suffered embarrassment on Monday when senior Egyptian politicians called in to discuss the crisis were apparently unaware their meeting was being broadcast live on television.

One suggested spreading false rumours that Egypt was building up its air power. Another, Younis Makhyoun, leader of a Salafi Islamist party, was filmed saying Egypt should back rebels in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, destroy the dam.

"Whether sabotage will be on menu, that remains to be seen," Getachew said, adding that past attempts by Egypt under former president Hosni Mubarak to destabilise Ethiopia through support to insurgents had failed.

"Destabilising Ethiopia never worked even when we were at our weakest position in the past," Getachew said. "We are in a far better position to avoid any negative impacts that may come from Egypt or any another country."

Even so, Getachew rejected the possibility of conflict and said he hoped Mursi would "be on the side of reason".

 

Ethiopia says it won't bow to Egyptian pressure over Nile ... - Reuters

www.reuters.com/.../us-ethiopia-egypt-nile-idUSBRE95616E20130607‎

[Che -Guevara]

Egyptians need reality check.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Ethiopia has no chance really they cant threaten Egypt's life line like that, i think in the long turn there will be a conflict maybe it will not be as dramatic as many make it sound. But Egypt cannot afford to lose the waters of the Nile.

[burahadeer]

What's the amount of water they lose?

[Guzel]

 

 

Spoken like true politicians.

[Chimera]

Great opportunity for Somalia here! Ethiopia is well aware that the recovery of Somalia is a reality, and one she can no longer stall. Since a stable Somalia is the only power in the region capable of bringing Ethiopia down, it would be in both interests to sign a pact that guarantees Ethiopia will not construct dams exceeding 400MW on the rivers entering Somalia, and in return Somalia in the future will not join Egypt's side on the Nile issue.

[OdaySomali]

Chimera Somalia is currently in no state to make such demands from Ethiopia and even if, bluntly and misguidedly, we did make such demands nothing would become of it as the Ethiopians know very well that in the short to medium term Somalia has no capacity or capabilities to support Egypt or pressure Ethiopia. There are other, more effective and diplomatic, ways in which Somalia can curtail the aggressive nature of Ethiopian foreign policy to its regional neighbours.

 

I don't know about the Jubba river, but Ethiopia already has dammed the Shabeelle river and I wouldnt be surprised if it also has designs on the tributaries of the Jubba river.

[Chimera]

Currently no, but by 2016 most definitely yes. The Somali Armed Forces will be operational, a lean but well-armed military, so Ethiopia will have no appetite to attack Somalia now that there is a standing army on the other side of the border. Our political differences will have significantly died down, or disappeared outright with the establishment of federal states and a fully reconstructed Mogadishu as the capital generating wealth and attracting FDI.

 

The Federal government by then has a tax-system in place, with a functioning central bank and a large national budget, all of which will be achieved in 2014/2015/2016. Since there are no immediate Ethiopian plans for 1000+ MW dams that could threaten the Shabelle or Juba rivers of Somalia, the country has nothing to worry about in the next five years.

 

After that, Somali planners need to prepare, or they will find themselves in the same situation as the Egyptians and Kenyans, witnessing unstoppable infrastructural projects that will affect the future generations of those countries. Many rivers have their source in Ethiopia, and it would be national suicide to dam all of them and draw the ire of every country in the region. Ethiopia survived this long due their diplomatic efforts, and refraining from threatening the water security of a recovered historic arch-enemy would ease the pressure. They need the dam on the Blue Nile, but they don't necessarily need prospective dams on the Somali rivers.

 

The civil war was such a waste, a stable Somalia today would have been in a excellent bargaining position, even the recent arrival of Egyptian officers in Mogadishu send alarm bells in Addis Ababa.

 

PS - Somalia should not allow itself to be dragged into this crisis, if our rivers are secure. The Egyptians watched us languish in the last 20 years, they were silent during the 2006 invasion, and absent during the drought in 2011, they're not our friends or allies. We must be very cold to countries that ignored us when they had it good, but suddenly remember us when things are going bad for them. A foreign policy similar to those of Turkey or Malaysia should be adopted, and less of this pseudo-brotherhood nonsense.

[warsamaale]

chimera wow, do you really believe what you write ? seriously waa iga daacad.

[Chimera]

Xabad, what do you dispute? Much of what is happening today is because Egyptians were too busy laughing at the notion that Ethiopia could ever recover from famine, civil-war and regional conventional wars, evendo the writing was on the wall.

 

You think in minutes and days, I think in years and decades, how's that for honesty?

[OdaySomali]

Chimera;960425 wrote:

Currently no, but by 2016 most definitely yes. The Somali Armed Forces will be operational, a lean but well-armed military, so Ethiopia will have no appetite to attack Somalia now that there is a standing army on the other side of the border. Our political differences will have significantly died down, or disappeared outright with the establishment of federal states and a fully reconstructed Mogadishu as the capital generating wealth and attracting FDI.

 

The Federal government by then has a tax-system in place, with a functioning central bank and a large national budget, all of which will be achieved in 2014/2015/2016. Since there are no immediate Ethiopian plans for 1000+ MW dams that could threaten the Shabelle or Juba rivers of Somalia, the country has nothing to worry about in the next five years.

I disagree. Just look at the conflict in Kismaayo which centers around the creation of just one 'federal state'. See the political disagreements and the extent of foreign involvement in domestic Somali politics that is evident there; many more 'federal states' are yet to be formed and they will present the same problems and setbacks. Federalism is out next big quagmire. And since our so-called 'political differences', when put in simple terms, is just clanism, Ethiopia will easily be able to manipulate the various political 'blocks' within Somalia as it did in the past.

 

Our national unity, political system, economy and security forces are extremely fragile and will continue to be so for the next few years. And if Ethiopia's recent involvement in Somalia ia anything to go by, it has shown that it has every appetite to be politically and militarily involved in Somalia - alas, Ethiopia currently has troops inside Somalia. Even where our neighbour chooses not to be directly militarily active inside our county, it is still very much active through its proxies.

 

I do concede that Ethiopia's ability to interfere in Somalia's domestic affairs without impunity is slowly diminishing. And in that same stroke of fortune, Somalia's ability to ward of Ethiopian political, military and diplomatic sabotage and interference is slowly improving.

 

Chimera;960425 wrote:

After that, Somali planners need to prepare, or they will find themselves in the same situation as the Egyptians and Kenyans, witnessing unstoppable infrastructural projects that will affect the future generations of those countries. Many rivers have their source in Ethiopia, and it would be national suicide to dam all of them and draw the ire of every country in the region. Ethiopia survived this long due their diplomatic efforts, and refraining from threatening the water security of a recovered historic arch-enemy would ease the pressure. They need the dam on the Blue Nile, but they don't necessarily need prospective dams on the Somali rivers.

Well said. I think that the Ethiopian regime has acted to rashly with this dam as even if their decision does not result in direct action from Egypt, it puts Egypt, Sudan, The Arab League, among others, on edge and negatively predisposed towards Ethiopia. Having said that, these infrastructural projects are an indication of where the Ethiopian regime wants to go in the future. They want to make their county a regional superpower by exporting the electricity from their dams at cheap rates and making their neigbouring countries dependent on Ethiopia for their electricity as well as undercutting their neighbours domestically produced electricity. In a similar way they have sought to influence Djibouti by exporting to it cheap electricity and potable water as well as allowing Djibouti to own swathes of fertile land in Ethiopia to produce agricultural produce. They are playing a tactical long-game.

 

Chimera;960425 wrote:

The civil war was such a waste, a stable Somalia today would have been in a excellent bargaining position, even the recent arrival of Egyptian officers in Mogadishu send alarm bells in Addis Ababa.

I agree unreservedly!

[OdaySomali]

Chimera;960425 wrote:

PS - Somalia should not allow itself to be dragged into this crisis, if our rivers are secure. The Egyptians watched us languish in the last 20 years, they were silent during the 2006 invasion, and absent during the drought in 2011, they're not our friends or allies. We must be very cold to countries that ignored us when they had it good, but suddenly remember us when things are going bad for them. A foreign policy similar to those of Turkey or Malaysia should be adopted, and less of this pseudo-brotherhood nonsense.

I wholeheartedly agree. Egypt (and many other counties) watched Somalis suffer as crisis after crisis and conflict afte conflict was instigated by our neighbouring countries. They have shown no reason for Somalia to support Egypt. Having said that, we should use them and take what we can get from them. One such thing is using Egypts influence with the the petro-rich GCC countries to get more developmental funding.

 

We have a far greater interest in working more closely with Ethiopia for our common interest. Somalia is in no place right now where is can fight another country's battles and get burnt in the process.

[Chimera]

OdaySomali;960431 wrote:

I disagree. Just look at the conflict in Kismaayo which centers around the creation of just

one

'federal state'. See the political disagreements and the extent of foreign involvement in domestic Somali politics that is evident there; many more 'federal states' are yet to be formed and they will present the same problems and setbacks. Federalism is out next big quagmire. And since our so-called 'political differences', when put in simple terms, is just clanism, Ethiopia will easily be able to manipulate the various political 'blocks' within Somalia as it did in the past.

 

Our national unity, political system, economy and security forces are extremely fragile and will continue to be so for the next few years. And if Ethiopia's recent involvement in Somalia ia anything to go by, it has shown that it has every appetite to be politically and militarily involved in Somalia - alas, Ethiopia currently has troops inside Somalia. Even where our neighbour chooses not to be directly militarily active inside our county, it is still very much active through its proxies.

 

I do concede that Ethiopia's ability to interfere in Somalia's domestic affairs without impunity is slowly diminishing. And in that same stroke of fortune, Somalia's ability to ward of Ethiopian political, military and diplomatic sabotage and interference is slowly improving.

The only reason why the bolded part is increasingly becoming the case is because of the establishment of a permanent government, and immense international back coming from Turkey, Britain, US, and Qatar. The situation in Kismayo is not going to reverse the gains, the international interests pushing for the stability of Somalia are too great, and this is to our long-term benefit. There is no country in Africa that is not suffering insecurity, rebellious regions and foreign interference. However the difference between them and us over the last twenty years was a permanent government.

 

India has a dozen liberation fronts inside its territory but you wouldn't know because it has its centers of power in order, same with Ethiopia. The same is steadily happening for Somalia, the Turks are helping immensely in building up the government's capacity, what should have taken decades, will take us 5 years due to this un-official Marshall-Plan that will reconstruct our battered cities, economy and armed forces. Any previous transitional government would have collapsed by now if this was still the 00s, but the Federal government is steadfast and united, this is a very significant step forward in creating a superstructure that can project power, or fend off malicious interests.

 

Well said. I think that the Ethiopian regime has acted to rashly with this dam as even if their decision does not result in direct action from Egypt, it puts Egypt, Sudan, The Arab League, among others, on edge and negatively predisposed towards Ethiopia. Having said that, these infrastructural projects are an indication of where the Ethiopian regime wants to go in the future. They want to make their county a regional superpower by exporting the electricity from their dams at cheap rates and making their neigbouring countries dependent on Ethiopia for their electricity as well as undercutting their neighbours domestically produced electricity. In a similar way they have sought to influence Djibouti by exporting to it cheap electricity and potable water as well as allowing Djibouti to own swathes of fertile land in Ethiopia to produce agricultural produce. They are playing a tactical long-game.

Ethiopia has its business in order, no doubt about that.

[Tallaabo]

Friendship and free trade with Ethiopia is in Somalia and Somaliland's interest. Somalis should actually support the Ethiopian dam because if Somalia and Somaliland sign free trade agreements with Ethiopia, we can import cheap electricity from them to kick start an industrial economy and export the Somali made products to Ethiopia's vast market. It is a win-win situation I think.

[Chimera]

OdaySomali;960432 wrote:

I wholeheartedly agree. Egypt (and many other counties) watched Somalis suffer as crisis after crisis and conflict afte conflict was instigated by our neighbouring countries. They have shown no reason for Somalia to support Egypt. Having said that, we should use them and take what we can get from them. One such thing is using Egypts influence with the the petro-rich GCC countries to get more developmental funding.

Egypt is in no position to help anyone to be honest, they are still reeling from a messy revolution, and they are forced to borrow from foreign finance institutions. If you look at the video Guzel posted, their re-engagement with Somalia is not in our interests, but theirs. What they can give us, we can get from Turkey and Japan at a much higher quality, without falling prey to regional conflicts. Somalia is already on the radar of the GCC countries, and there is no doubt in my mind had we not plunged ourselves into this silly civil-strife many GCC billion dollar projects would have been constructed in Somalia already, the 200 thousand barrels of oil-refinery(largest in the region) planned by Iraq right before the war is a good example 22 years ago.

 

The biggest supporters of the Federal government are the UAE and Qatar.

 

We have a far greater interest in working more closely with Ethiopia for our common interest. Somalia is in no place right now where is can fight another country's battles and get burnt in the process.

Yes, which is why creating a pact that makes a stable Somalia neutral in the water-crisis is to our interest and theirs. If they refuse and the country gets burned, at least it fought for its own future generations and their water security, rather than a foreign country. Ethiopia spend much of her resources fending off Somalia from the 60s to the early 90s, while nothing went to developmental projects, they have no interest in going back to such a situation.

 

(The Somalia I'm using in this discussion is the one between 2016-2025, which is when the water-politics probably will affect Somali farms directly). I made a post on a similar topic a week ago on what Somalia could do to accomplish water-security and not find themselves like the Egyptians with their pants down:

 

Chimera;956545 wrote:

^A future Somalia has many options to counter the impact of Ethiopia's plans:

 

1) Halt the plans through legal means via the UN

 

2) Entice Djibouti into an agreement.

 

3) Free port access, on the condition that any plans are scrapped.

 

4) Rain-harvesting

 

5) Desalination plants

 

6) Wind-farms along Somalia's coast = exporting surplus energy to countries around the region, and undercutting Ethiopia's destination for revenue, making any future loans and bonds-sales to foot the bill for any new dam project highly unlikely, and not worth it.

 

7) Military confrontation (not today, in the future), in the form of a naval blockade of Ethiopian goods.

 

A combination of the first five options would secure Somalia's national interests, and we are lucky that we have a sizable population whose food/water security quota can be secured by 10 desalination plants, and mega storage tanks strategically positioned across the country for maximum accumulation, unlike either Egypt or Ethiopia's whose populations are becoming unsustainable.

 

This would be a Somali energy plan totaling $15 billion in the span of 20 years, with 2 new plants constructed every four years. There are 13 thousand desal plants in operation around the world, and it takes 1/3 the time to build one compared to a dam.