Play Nice Or Else

[xiinfaniin]

^^Afkaygaad ka xadday

 

Oodweyne for the most part got it right

[Abtigiis]

Excellent post Baashi. Really excellent. I don't want to add anything more. you summed it up with the wisdom we accustomed to hear from you.

 

I am just shocked by two people's observation: Mintid and Oodweeyne.

 

Mintid says Hassan will bring the Parliament to his side? so what? This battle is not going to be won by parliamentary bills! Hassan can say Jubbaland is illegal, but to the extent Ahmed Madoobe has the guns on the ground, it really means nothing! Is Mintid saying international forces will help the Government disarm Madoobe? That doesn't seem to be in the offing for now. Also, when he says the West supports Hassan, doesn't he realize that they will also re-assess their position regarding him if they are convinced he is not going to deliver! If the Jubaland crisis deepens, Puntland reneges, and Somaliland continues to drift away, surely, they will not be putting all their money on Hassan. The murmurs of his incompetency has already started in the corridors of some influential entities!

 

Oodweeyne, Ethiopia iyo Kenya do not want a strong Somali government. Whatever they feel about ONLF or Hassan Sheikh, they will support whatever keeps Somalia in turmoil. Taa maskaxda ku hay, oo don't read too much into every press story you hear, as if you are Gabbal or Mintid!

[Mintid Farayar]

The Guru continues the educating process....

 

A&T,

I didn't mean Hassan will bring the Parliament to his side, as you put it. I meant: He already has the majority of Parliament on his side when it comes to the Jubba issue. This argument will be presented by Hassan, not to you and I, but to the same Western donors we're all alluding to. Hassan will say: "If they wish to oppose me, they have to oppose me within the institutions(Parliament, elections, etc.,) set up by the collective roadmap agreed to by Southern stakeholders!" Not by setting up rogue states while Parliament is still working on drafting the 'Guidelines for Federalization'.

I think you get the gist of the argument....

 

If the 'rumors of his incompetency have started in some influential corridors', as you put it, then we will see how that plays out. But thus far, he seems a far better player in the 'internationalized' Somalia quagmire than his current opposition.

 

P.S. I believe you alluded to working for the UN in the distant past. I suggest you read the full, 'classified' minutes of the Security Council briefing of April 25 on the Somali situation(if you have access). It will give you a more firm idea of where each of the 'concerned' countries, as well as Security Council Members, stands on Hassan Sheikh and his administration. Interestingly, while the Ethiopians were allowed to give their take, the Kenyans were not invited to participate in the discussions.

 

What's interesting about all this is the Kenyan reaction to the recent events of the last week. The Kenyan diplomatic effort has been sluggish and amateurish with increasing attempts to create some political distance between themselves and the Ahmed Madobe faction. I fear Hassan is aligning other powerful interests in conflict with the Jubbaland project to buttress his political and diplomatic leverage vis-a-vis the Kenyans.

 

Overall, we'll see how it plays out soon enough. I do agree with you that if he fails to deliver on his other priorities back in Mogadishu (an area under his control), the international honeymoon could soon be over.

[xiinfaniin]

Baashiyow,

 

Though Oodweyne very much summed up what the parameters of this renewed political conflict are and what the expected out could be , the thing is this conflict in the eyes of IC should have been avoided and is totally unnecessary. Hassan spent a lot of political capital on the jubbaland issue , and all signs suggest the return if any will be meager for him. Madoobe and his inner circle are quite confident today more so than they were few nights ago. What changed? We don't know the details , but I think Hassan made a strong argument why it is important for his government to lead but could not muster any reasoning as to why that wasn't the case. Madoobe and co on the other hand are on record inviting the president and national leaders to come and lead the process.

 

The damage has already been done, the president sustained most of it politically speaking. The neighbors have an opening that was unimaginable few months ago. But still this could be managed if Hassan cut his losses and accept where Somalia is today.

 

Faroole is not asking much ; he wants the constitution he fought so fiercely to be adopted to be respected and followed. Madoobe has the a well documented political reconciliation conference , a well trained militia that has been very helpful in defeating alshabaab, and has a peculiar shrewdness that compensates his past history; he finds no difficulty to respect and recognize the legitimacy of national leaders yet he insists he and the region he leads have constitutional role.

 

Yesterday Ahmed Madoobe appointed a committee that will negotiate with Somali government with no conditions. They are in Kismayo now , and may soon go to Mogadishu. But implicit in his political maneuverings is that the SFG will have to think twice before they contest his leadership in that region.

 

How can both parties compromise and on what?

 

1 -Compromise starts from accepting the reality before you. Ahmed and Faroole seems to have no difficulty in that. Hassan Sheekh however has pushed himself to a corner, obviously it is difficult for him to maneuver from it. But Hassan will have to recognize the outcome of that conference

 

2- For Ahmed , he shall preserve the fundamentals (Jubbaland State-- the 3 regions, the election that produced his leadership), but he should compromise on any minor corrections deemed necessary by federal government i.e. delegates , also he should compromise on expediting the integration of his militia into the federal army , and negotiate a revenue sharing formula with the federal government

 

What other areas are open for compromise in the context of hardened positions of both sides?

[Duufaan]

Hasan is not going any where. His government is by name only, it is not more than moqdisholand comparable to other lands. in the ground he did not make much progress except the weaken of shabaab. He had his best time already, the international community offered 300 million dollar for hasan government. EU offered 1.5 billion for mali. U.S only offered 15 million. the west embassies in nariobi will listen both hasan and faroole and will not do anything unless things change dramatically. they will emphasis that the fight of shabaab should coordinated.

 

the fight of jubland will end up who is control in kismaayo. ahmed madoobe control the port and that is significant. however hassan and his supporters are aggressive and trying to get foot step in kismaanyo and that is the only way he can challenge the jubaland.

[Mintid Farayar]

Duufaan;957197 wrote:

the fight of jubland will end up who is control in kismaayo. ahmed madoobe control the port and that is significant. however hassan and his supporters are aggressive and trying to get foot step in kismaanyo and that is the only way he can challenge the jubaland.

 

 

 

As I pointed out yesterday, Kenya continues the verbal distancing from the project, claiming they had nothing to do with it(purely a local-driven project, according to the Kenyans).....I don't understand how they can seriously proclaim this given there are publicly available U.S. diplomatic cables re: the Kenyan origins of the Jubbaland project dating back some years in the past.

 

And the head Kenyan General puts the lie to the claim that Ahmed Madobe's militia holds Kismayo. Kismayo and surrounding areas are secured by the Kenyan Armed Forces. Anyone wishing to enter Kismayo has to get the permission of the Kenyan military (hence Hassan Sheikh's complaints about Kenya, during the AU Summit, in the treatment of his delegation).

__________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

Kenya denies imposing leadership on Jubaland

Updated Thursday, May 30th 2013 at 23:05 GMT +3

 

By CYRUS OMBATI

 

KENYA: Kenya has denied imposing leadership on Jubaland in a bid to deter terror activities from Somalia.

 

The Chief of Defence Forces Gen Julius Karangi said on Thursday no Kenyan was involved in the election of Ahmed Mohamed Islam, best known as Ahmed Madobe, as the President of the regional State of Jubaland on May 15.

 

Gen Karangi said the residents of the region held elections on their own and elected Madobe in accordance with their laws.

 

“It is a decision of their own and I cannot comment further because their constitution allows them to do so the same way they cannot comment on our elections,” said Karangi.

 

He also said Kenyan troops under Amisom still control large parts of Jubaland and in particular Kismayu.

 

Protests

 

Karangi was reacting to protests from leaders from Mogadishu who claimed the Kenya Defence Forces were imposing leadership in the region.

 

Karangi said the troops control more than 300,000 square kilometres of the region and that they will leave the country after the African Union (AU) orders so.

 

“We are under AU and we will leave there if and when the AU orders so. I cannot say when the Kenyan troops will withdraw,” he added.

 

He spoke yesterday after officiating the graduation of 41 officers from 13 countries who have been undergoing a one-year course at the National Defence College.

 

Karangi said the military in the area would remain neutral about the ongoing political process

AU urged Mogadishu to “timely convene and lead a reconciliation conference” to chart out a way to set up an interim administration in regions recently liberated by Kenyan and allied forces.

 

Friday’s decision was reached after the AU received a report from a confidence building team it sent to Mogadishu and Kismayu last week to sound out the various stakeholders on Jubaland state formation.

 

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000084861&story_title=kenya-denies-imposing-leadership-on-jubaland&pageNo=1

[nuune]

^^ So who is telling the truth, the Kenyans said we didn't misbehave, President Hassan said, 'you misbehaved', what does this change on the ground, Kenya distancing itself from the project is good for Madoobe because that is what the SFG and mainstream Somalis were accusing of him, but it is getting interesting indeed, lets wait the SFG's reaction(any of your prediction on what they would say is highly needed here).

[Carafaat]

Oodweyne;957123 wrote:

Baashi

,

 

I beg to differ with you in here, Saaxiib. And by that I mean, granted the talk of Farole may be that Hassan Sheikh must walk the walk about Federalism; and for good measure he (Farole) will even say that the only way that talk from Hassan Sheikh will be credible will be if he accept the current Jubbaland as it stand today. But, this is essentially the

"first objective"

, or if you like it's a way in which one's political ducks can be put into a row for the eventual and the ultimate objective.

 

And that ultimate objective is to have all the

"ingredient"

in which a "confederate state" for the "Tolka" comprising Jubbaland and Puntland, can be build, eventually, if for any reason the folks who call the shot in Mogadishu gets to be greedy with the power they have at the center of the nation.

 

Hence the

"primary objective"

of Farole and Madobe is to have a federal state in jubbaland and have that state signed off by Mugadishu, legally. And once that is done, then wait and see if the

"ultimate objective"

will be warranted, so that means make sure you have the "means" and "wherewithal" to create a "Confederate state" if the such necessity becomes pressing for the "Tolka".

 

Consequently, all this talks about Hassan Sheikh not playing fair with Jubbaland issue may or may not be correct on the face of it. But the larger point is that it's really irrelevant to what those who making this accusation are "angling" for as their

"final objective"

in this drama.

 

In a sense, this red-herring agenda about Jubbaland is essentially, what the British lawyers call a "God-send justification" to a larger mitigation plea you want to make before dubiously-looking judge.

Oodweyne,

 

Excellent analysis there. Baashi wants us to belief that Faroole is merely defending the self-determination of Jubbaland folks. While we all know Faroole's game plan has always been about the control for power in Somalia and with Jubbaland, pirates will hold a significant leverage in a confederate Somalia. Hence why they opposed Azania/Jubbaland when they were holding the PM seat and were in the center of power(till 2012) and have embraced Jubbaland since they lost the PM post and consider these days Jubbaland as a God-send justification, to realize their ulterior dream.

[Carafaat]

AU urged Mogadishu to “timely convene and lead a reconciliation conference” to chart out a way to set up an interim administration in regions recently liberated by Kenyan and allied forces.

 

Friday’s decision was reached after the AU received a report from a confidence building team it sent to Mogadishu and Kismayu last week to sound out the various stakeholders on Jubaland state formation.

The Kenyans have adjusted their position in alignment with the recent positions of IGAD for the central goverment to set-up interim administration throughout Somalia, including Jubbaland.

[Abtigiis]

Oodweyne;957123 wrote:

^^^

Abtigiis

,

 

And yet, saaxiib, although you are as clear-sighted as a daylight when it comes to the "political moves" of Kenya and Ethiopia towards Somalia and what manner of destiny they will like for her, you can't still tear yourself away from supporting - tacitly -or even inadvertently - those same "political agenda" of those country (particularly Kenya) in which you know are essentially detrimental to Somalia. Consequently the question is, what gives, saaxiib?

.

No, oodweeyne, you are wrong again. What i said is that Kenya and Ethiopia want to have a weak Somalia. I don't support that, but there is no point telling you that, because you will keep on accusing me of doing that no matter how many time I clarify my position on that. Why I oppose Hassan is because I think he is giving fodder to external enemies by taking a belligerent path on internal matters when there are deep internal divisions. Do I make sense?

 

Midda kale, I am really confused by Mintid and Carafaat's arguments. Waa wareeray! What are you saying? Just tell me pleassssse!

 

IS Kenya supporting this Jubbaland thing or not??? Yes or no!

 

If yes, then your argument that Kenya is the problem and my argument that the main problem internal clan mistrust, which Kenya may be exploiting, stands as it was !

 

If No, then why are you condemning Kenya now? Does this not proving your contention the jubbaland thing is a kenyan project false? If It was a kenyan thing and now Kenya is backing down, then chill out, let us see if that solves the problem.

 

Meel uun aan idiinku soo hagaago waa wareernay sidaan doodiina sida kaadida geela isku wareegaysanaysa u daba soconaye!!

[Mario B]

^ I agree. it takes two to tango.

[Gabbal]

Inshallah kheyr bay noqon.