Play Nice Or Else

[Baashi]

Somali political leaders should play nice or the fragile peace folks are enjoying in the major cities are in danger to be lost. As always this zero sum game we've been practicing for the last three decades will compel the losers or those who think they are at disadvantage to seek support from neighboring states as was the case with SDDF, SNM, USC and SPM when the laba kacleynta kacaanka slogan meant only Father Siyad has the wisdom and foresight to know what's good for the state and anyone who dared to doubt his leadership was labelled qarran-diid.

 

The course SFG, PL and JL is on is a dangerous course and it is heading to a deadly confrontation. This state of quarrelsome disagreement is not serving anyone's interest except neighboring states who understand the value of making use of proxies in order to farther their strategic interest in this region and beyond.

 

I understand why Jubaland folks feel betrayed by SFG leadership. I understand why Puntland is alarmed by the way SFG is conducting itself. I am not sure I understand SFG's belligerence!

 

Last few weeks it was SFG President Hassan making the rounds in neighboring countries and ratcheting up the pressure on Jubaland. He weighed his options and chose to deal with foreigners in resolving the issue in Kismayo instead of with his Somali partners.

 

Today PL President Faroole is making the rounds in neighboring states and making the case that he is withdrawing his confidence in current crop of SFG leadership.

 

We may like how this three-dimensional chess is being played and the resolve shown by the players to make moves that would make them the last man standing in the ring. It's fun to observe, predict or to root for one of the contestants. But when the contestants become suicidal nutcases and show no respect for their lives or the countless lives they are resonsible for or the interest of their people or the cause they are fighting for then the game ceases to be a game. Likewise any game worth of its name has rules of engagement or things that are off-limits that needs to be observed.

 

The interest of the country should be utmost priority -- its territorial integrity, revival, reconstruction and stability should be sacrosanct. We should not support or root for when folks in the ring ignore the rules of the game or gamble on things that are off-limits.

 

On behalf of SOL kor-joogto who enjoy following, observing and sharing their two cents of the current events in that corner of Africa we request Madobe, Fartaag, Faroole, Saacid, Jawaari and Hassan to play nice

 

By

Inna-Kaadi-Najaasle

[N.O.R.F]

A little late in the day for this Baashow. Markii la Iis wada hubeeyey they should play nice?

[Tillamook]

^

Hubka aad ka hadlaysid muxuu yahay?

 

Nobody is gonna fight anytime soon, which is the beauty of this political brinkmanship over Jubaland, and that's because of the foreign forces present in Somalia. Unlike the past when Somalis used the gun to try to solve their differences, it is a whole new ball game with the presence of these neocolonialist armies.

 

If there is going to be any true victor over this Kismayu issue, it will be through political maneuvering only and who at the end of the day can galvanize a large portion of Somalis to their side. As it stands, Culosow will loose because he refuses to utilize the most powerful weapon he possesses which gives him legitimacy in the eyes of all Somalis, and that's the constitution.

 

President Hassan Shiekh Mahamud: Please abide by the constitution and watch all your opponents wither away!

[Baashi]

N.O.R.F;956817 wrote:

A little late in the day for this Baashow. Markii la Iis wada hubeeyey they should play nice?

NORF how's life been treating you lately awoowe? Still in ME or are you back at home? Hope all is well.

 

Yaa is hubeeyey? Waar ninyahow hawshu waa sideedii oo dhanka gudaha ilaa haatan waa ok oo shido badan kama jidho laakiin haddii aan wax laga beddelin sida ay ku socoto waxa ila tahay inay tageyso meel aan laga soo celin karin.

 

I wrote that piece late yesterday on my way out of the office in a hurry Waqtigii baa nalugu cidhiidhiyey awoowe. But make no mistake the politiking of it is still captivating...to me at least. The only foul play I don't like about this tournament is when contestants appeal to the arbiters in Nairobi or Addis

[Baashi]

Tillamook;956822 wrote:

^

Hubka aad ka hadlaysid muxuu yahay?

 

Nobody is gonna fight anytime soon, which is the beauty of this political brinkmanship over Jubaland, and that's because of the foreign forces present in Somalia. Unlike the past when Somalis used the gun to try to solve their differences, it is a whole new ball game with the presence of these neocolonialist armies.

 

If there is going to be any true victor over this Kismayu issue, it will be through political maneuvering only and who at the end of the day can galvanize a large portion of Somalis to their side. As it stands, Culosow will loose because he refuses to utilize the most powerful weapon he possesses which gives him legitimacy in the eyes of all Somalis, and that's the constitution.

 

President Hassan Shiekh Mahamud: Please abide by the constitution and watch all your opponents wither away!

Hear! hear!

[Mintid Farayar]

Excellent points, Oodweyne. Unfortunately, you might be talking above the heads of some.

 

I always knew Somalis were emotional but didn't realize the extent to which it clouds judgement in our people.

 

The supporters of Jubbaland fail to realize that Hassan Sheikh has lined the majority of the parliament in opposition to the current Jubbaland project. He can legally claim that the 'House of the People' (the Parliament) is in majority agreement with the Executive branch in how to handle the federation of this region. He can further state that those who oppose this can legally challenge him through the agreed system by contesting his blueprint within Parliament.

 

Just spelling it out....

 

P.S. There's a reason for that broad smile on his face all the time

[Mintid Farayar]

Even official Kenyan government channels seem to be distancing themselves from a link with Ahmed Madobe and the current Jubbaland project. Below is a quote from Kenya Defence Forces Spokesman Cyrus Oguna(the man who actually speaks for the Kenyan military):

 

Although Oguna said last week that Ahmed Madobe’s election was “worth applauding,” he refuted on Saturday, claims that Kenya supports anyone for the leadership of Kismayu, saying the Kenyan Defence Forces are non-partisan, impartial and neutral.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000084628&story_title=kenya-suffers-major-setback-over-new-state

 

 

The Kenyan power elite (irrespective of the few Somalis in the Kenyan gov't) are not permanently wedded to any particular leader in Jubbaland, nor any particular clan, but rather to the stabilization of the area - so that it poses no danger to their tourism industry & the future development of the Lamu Port Project and Turkana oil fields.

[Mintid Farayar]

The Ethiopians have never been on board with this Jubbaland project. They perceive a long term threat in the form of a natural reserve base for the ONLF. Unfortunately for them, they currently don't have the bandwidth to do much about it. Tomorrow might be a different situation, though...

 

Speaking of which have you noticed the silence of our ONLF partisans on the Ethiopia issue as of lately (ever since the Jubbaland issue took the limelight)? All that talk of human rights violations and occupied land went out the window, as if the region is no longer occupied and has turned to a gleaming example of stellar human rights! The vilified Abdi Iley has turned into our boy ever since he endorsed the Jubbaland project

[xiinfaniin]

For once Oodweyne and Mintid saaxigay keeneen, after arguing this project is driven by Ethiopian and Kenyan government for months, they now say it represents local aspirations and neighboring countries have very little to do with it

 

That is a big change

[Mintid Farayar]

Always attempting to muddy the waters, yaa Xiin.

 

Show a single thread where Oodweyne or myself have claimed this is an Ethiopian project and the teacher will give you the 'The Good Boy of the Day Star'.

 

As for the Kenyan involvement, well it's not Oodka and Mintid claiming that.... It's the whole entire world including Ahmed Madobe and co.

 

This all ties in to the question I posed to you and others the other day: Who's IGAD? That's your homework, sxb.... Do a little research and all will make sense!

[Baashi]

Oodweyne summed it up pretty well. I don't know what the West will do and who among the key players they will support when the tough gets going and the rubber really hits the road. What I do know is that multinational corporations have an interest in dusting off their valid contracts with Somali government (pre-1991) and the only legal way to achieve that singular objective is to shore up Hassan’s government. Denying non-state actors refuge where their mischievous plans is concocted figure prominently the national security calculus of big powers.

 

Somalia is not out of woodworks yet. SFG has the legitimacy and holds the levers of the power but the ship of the state is not seaworthy yet and not in a shape in cruising the high sees. Before all the four engines are fired up the captain, the co-pilot, the officers, the folks who takes care of the ship and maintain it have to establish a command structure amd get on the same page. That ahs not happen yet.

 

For Madoobe and Faroole is now or never game. They need to make sure that Benadir as the center does not have undue leverage over the periphery. They need to make sure that power is constitutionally divided into two tier levels. They need to insist on the built in safeguards in the balance and checks form works NOW before Mogadishu assumes Inna Barre powers of long gone era.

 

Awoowe this is high poker game and Faroole is playing it like a pro. Madobe is so far so good and only time will tell if he is worthy partner to play the game as it should be played.

 

Now, your insinuation and the doc-ka-yeer fella cheerleading for that line of thinking let me tell you what I think of the players. Factoring in the new found legitimacy and the power of pulpit Hassan has, the SFG legitimacy and its success in protecting Somalia from another social correction is solely depend on how it deals with the question of Federalism.

 

If SFG acts responsibly and respects the division of power as envisioned in the Draft Constitution it will retain its legitimacy and ensure the alarmed constituency that the social contract is intact. The trust building effort among mistrusting and traumatized public is where this SFG should focus on and spend its effort.

[xiinfaniin]

Mintid, relax awoowe,

 

If I ever understood your angle I would have engaged you in debates , but your take on Southern politics is quite peculiar to say the least.

 

Jubbaland is a political reality , Hassan Sheekh tried to abort it but to no avail. This federal caravan shall go on.

 

So easy with the geopolitical talk and over analyzing simple concepts --establishing federal state in an important region against the objection of federal government

[Mintid Farayar]

xiinfaniin;956983 wrote:

but your take on Southern politics is quite peculiar to say the least.

Yet quite accurate(thus far) in predicting actual outcomes, as proven by past Forum postings.

 

I guess that might come across as peculiar to the 'emotional'.

 

Somalia entered the 'geopolitical' when it's problems affected the furthest continents. The powers-that-be in this world took notice & gone are the days when the Somalia portfolio was left to the Ethiopian and Kenyan 'securicrats'.

 

Geopolitics plays a huge role in the current game - a reality Hassan Sheikh's team have understood better than any other Somali leadership, including Somaliland.

 

For you see, Xiin, unlike you, I can set aside my wants and emotions - and see the situation for how it truly is.... not how I would like it to be!

[xiinfaniin]

^^ok Mintid

 

As adults we should accept the fact that I see you as Macno Yare while you are convinced I am an emotional .Hence stop arguing over and over again

[Baashi]

Oodweyne;957042 wrote:

Baashi,

 

Saaxiib, you are bit “touchy” (for some unknown reason) about what the implication of my argument was meant to be. For there was no “insinuation” on my part on any thing; however what there was, was essentially a way to show how these current fight is about something else entirely.

 

In other words, this current political wrangling is nominally about a different political interpretation of the constitution as it specifies what federalism is ought to be about. But in

real sense

and in the

object truth

of it, is about whether Somalia – in future sense – will be a “confederation” of clans and their states (even if the law says it’s a federal system).

 

Or whether that “undefined future” will be one whereby clans will have their “states” but a central authority of far and above what the clans have legally empowered her with (or delegated to her), will exist in the country at it’s center. This the question in which Jubbaland will define.

 

And in that sense, to put it, more crudely, the question will be: whether the central federal government will exist independent of whatever political favor and legal grace – grudgingly or otherwise – the clans and their states grants to the that central government; or whether that central federal government will only exist at the “indulgence” of the clans and their states?

 

Consequently, If the future is that of “self-assured-central-federal-government” that will act at the behest of the country as a whole while taking on board the “feelings/sentiment/interest” of the clans and their states, then we will have “centralized version” of a federal government.

 

If however, the future federal government will be one whereby the authority entrusted to her will be one in which it’s grudgingly given to her by the clans and their states; or it’s power given to her by the “sovereign indulgence” of the clans and their states, then that future will be one in which we can define as a

“confederacy of clans/states”

, regardless of what the constitution says.

 

This is, to belabor the point, what Jubbaland, will tell us, particularly when it's eventually gets to be resolved. This means, if Hassan Shiekh prevail in here (or at least his reading of Somalia's future prevails), then, Jubbaland may come to exist (in one form or the other) but it will be a state that will not “augur” the future direction of Somalia into the

"confederacy path”

.

 

If however, the current argument of Ahmed Madoobe (and to some extend, that of Imam Farole) prevail, particularly in their incessant talk of interpreting the direction of that federal dispensation as they understand it, then, as surely days follows night, the future of the country will be one in which a

“confederation of clan-centric states”

will result it at the logical end of the day, regardless of what the said constitution of the country may say about the political dispensation of the country. And as you can see the struggle to

“define”

the future of Somalia will largely hinge which of those two

"competing “visions”

prevails against the other.

 

However the sad part in all of these is that it’s not Somalis who will decide that

"outcome"

, but it’s the same powers-that-be, who cobbled together Somalia in its current reality. And all these Somali actors could do is try to “convince” those powers-that-be that their strategical interest in which they have in a “secure” Somalia, chimes in with their particular vision of the future of Somalia. This is the current fight that Imam Farole and Hassan Sheikh are furiously engage in at the moment, particularly as this dance over Jubbaland continuous.

Awoowe that bit was directed to Mintid. Time is scarce commodity at my end and my post might appear incoherent as I am really really busy and have people coming in my office in the middle of my writing a reply.

 

This is, by far, one of the well-thought write-up you’ve ever posted on SOL. I have to honestly say that you do understand the political goings of Somalia. And I couldn’t agree with you more. That was an excellent write-up my cyper-friend. The only thing I would add (and this is a correction of sort) is that neither Maboobe nor Faroole wants to institute clan-centric confederacy.

 

The current draft constitution calls for Federal System. The Faroole and the block he represents insist on having safeguards and checks and balances mechanism be enshrined in the Constitution. The reason for his incessant insistence on having Federal System of governance was to make sure that no constituent have the chance to politically dominate the government or abuse the power of the state.

 

In a sense what the Federal System confers to the clans out of power at any given time in the future is the confidence that the power is divided among federal and regional institutions and in no way will be consolidated in the hands of the clans in power.

 

This cure is one of the lessons learned from the two decades the military junta was in power which necessitated the painful correction Somalis had to live with in the last two decades.

 

Everything else you said in your post is reasonable and for the most part true.