Kenya snubbed by America and China in favour of Tanzania

[Chimera]

Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests - Lord Palmerston

 

A serious political earthquake has happened in East Africa not seen since the collapse of the central government of Somalia in 1991. The recent change has shifted the world's policies towards this region, especially with regards to each country's geopolitical importance. The one time favourite, Kenya has been on a downward spiral since 2008, in terms of political capital. This has worsened with the election that ushered in two politicians accused of being war-criminals in the eyes of the ICC in The Hague.

 

One can see the stark difference of this new geopolitical reality in the country of Tanzania, a former socialist republic, which in the past had weak ties with the West, ties much weaker than those of the erstwhile governments of Somalia. Yet today, its leaving the rest of the region in a cloud of dust as its being courted not just by their traditional allies, the East, but also the West. Tanzania has provided these two blocs with a stable and dependable partner, with whom they can do business.

 

Xi Jinping visits Tanzania

 

In June, US President Barack Obama will embark on the second leg of his African Tour, and one of the destinations is Tanzania. A country he has no personal ties with, nor any family living there. He will arrive with an entourage of 1200 people, 500 of them business people, and will inject close to a billion dollars into the economy of Tanzania. You ask, why is all this relevant, well anyone that has followed Obama's rise, knows his closest link with Africa is in the form of Kenya, where he has family, and which he visited as a senator.

 

Yet as a President, during his African Tour he and his advisers have opted for the second time to bypass Kenya, despite visiting a neighbouring country in the process. This is clearly due to who is in power in Kenya, but also highlights that countries can be discarded very easily if you do not synchronize yourself in a way that makes it comfortable for the world powers to do business with you.

 

President Barack Obama will on his second leg visit South Africa, and Tanzania, but not Kenya.

 

Here comes the part that is relevant to Somalia, in terms of natural resources, agricultural potential and strategic location, Somalia beats anyone in the region hands down, It's myopic politics on the part of Somali leaders, both on a regional and national level that has rendered these clear-cut advantages obsolete,and irrelevant for decades. However there is a silver-lining here, Somalia remains an extremely attractive country for investors, at the Somalia London Conference, 200 business people threw themselves at the feet of the Somali President. There are also two very important business and investment conferences scheduled in Nairobi, that will draw in hundreds of entrepreneurs and multi-nationals.

 

However, everything on the ground seems to point to a terrible collision, that will either permanently destroy a nascent regional state, or significantly weaken the capacity of the Federal Government. The losers here will be the Somali people, regardless of what petty clan your from. This is what I propose to not only increase the geopolitical importance of Somalia, but create a stable country:

 

1) The Federal Government recognizes the election of Ahmed Madoobe, on the condition that the Raskamboni Brigade are incorporated into the SAF immediately, and their commanders sent to Mogadishu and Ankara for training. Ahmed Madoobe will have not engage a dialogue with any neighbouring/distant country that is not sanctioned and approved by the Federal Government

 

2) The Jubbaland administration agrees to a reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, with the Vice-President seat remaining vacant.

 

3) The Constitution is revised transparently and with daily/weekly reports on progress transmitted through the national tv and radio-stations.

 

4) The Federal Government has to reach out to China, and cut out the middleman. The summit that Somalia and Japan will co-chair tomorrow in Tokyo, surely will irk and bring out the Red Dragon from its slumber, and to our benefit.

 

5) Establish a Federal resource-sharing agreement with the important stake-holders of the country that will open the way for massive investments that are welcomed and protected by all parties, including Somaliland.

 

6) The Federal Government replaces the presence of Kenyan troops with a neutral presence, or has them demoted to a secondary position. This should be done in January 2014, when the arms-embargo is permanently lifted, the militias have been upgraded into regular soldiers by Turkey and EUTM and Al-Shabaab has been all but defeated/degraded to an ineffective force.

 

7) An end to the AU presence in Somalia has to be agreed upon in that same year.

 

8) The planned permanent Human Rights Commission must include an office for the return of looted properties & wealth to make the capital the multi-clan and cosmopolitan city it once was.

 

9) Repatriate the refugees in Northern Kenya and Yemen back to their regions in Somalia. The Federal Government must take out a loan of one billion dollars for this purpose alone, with the objective to create jobs, rebuild homes and provide services for these returnees that will allow them to stand on their own two feet once more.

 

10) A separate 2 billion dollars has to be injected into the country school system, health-sectors and coastal communities by 2016.

 

11) Provide a base for China in Kismayo, and a base for the US in either Mogadishu or Berbera. This will significantly boost the geopolitical importance of Somalia at the expense of its neighbours in the eyes of the superpowers.

 

12) Sign deals and joint-ventures with important great powers such as Britain, South Korea, Japan and Turkey that will benefit the infrastructure network of Somalia, and its economic output.

 

There are more points, but these are the most important ones for the near future, and could result in Somalia being a significantly stronger and more respected country than it currently is. There is a clear advantage in the fact that unlike Kenya, Somalia does not have leaders chased by the ICC. There is also a clear advantage in the fact that the leaders of Britain and the US are more comfortable in being seen with the leaders of Somalia, than the leaders of Kenya. Despite its terrible ordeal in the last two decades, Somalia remains a beautiful Cindarella in the eyes of the world, and one that could eventually rise to become a Queen.

[Chimera]

Continued:

 

The Tanzanian professor Shivji made an interesting point in the above article: "that after Somalia, which has been destroyed, Tanzania has the longest shoreline on the Indian Ocean." This is an interesting point, countries in the region base their geopolitical importance and advantages on the current situation of Somalia, be it Ethiopia and its cries of terrorism, or Kenya and the refugee issue, Djibouti and its unchallenged regional Port, or Uganda and Burundi for the first time in their history being treated as equal partners at UN summits because of their contribution to Amisom, the stepping stone has been Somalia, and indirectly they have benefited from its current misery.

 

That is the reality of today, I will not deny it, its a painful fact. However there is a flip-side to this, and if the above 12 points policy is put into motion by the Federal government and the regional administrations find the foresight to agree upon it. The political deadlocks would unravel, the various regions for the first time in 22 years would open up for investment and allow coordinated advances against Al-Shabaab. The refugees would return, and the camps in Kenya would disappear along with the geopolitical status this situation currently accords to Kenya in the eyes of the International Community, at no expense to her own coffers.

 

The 12 point policy would end the foreign presence in Somalia, and in turn degrade the importance of Uganda and Burundi in the eyes of the West. The 12 point policy would revitalize the many deepsea ports of Somalia, and in turn take away business from Doraleh and Mombasa. The 12 point policy would cement strong relationships with all the important powers of the world in a way that is competitive and beneficial to Somalia, and degrade the relationships of neighbouring countries and major powers solely based on countering threats from Somalia.

 

The 12 point policy would cut through the political knot in the name of economy and progress, it would regain the lost political capital of the country, it would re-energize fertile regions and the coastal belts of the country. There is absolutely no reason for us to be in this pathetic situation, geopolitically, economically and domestically. Somalia does not have to have a military presence in a neighbouring/distant warzone to be courted by the likes of Turkey, Britain, Qatar and the US. They will reach out by default once the house is in order. Somalia does not have to advertise itself to the international business community, their binoculars have never left the country, and they will throw themselves at the feet of your leaders once they smell the scent of stability. Somalia does not have to construct major ports to attract investment, they are already there. Somalia does not have to teach the world about its strategic locations, the world already knows, since 50% of their goods travel past the country's sea-lanes.

 

The ball is in our hands, so forget about personalities for a moment, and keep your eye on the goal, if we blow this chance, no amount of advantages the country is blessed with will save Somalia, or all that lives within its internationally recognized borders.

[xiinfaniin]

Chimera, are you close to the federal government inner circle where important policies are made ? If you are perhaps your 12 point policy can steer this unskilled president to the correct course ...his priorities are messed up, and very soon. If he continues on his current policies with respect of federalism and particularly with Jubbaland region, Somalia will find itself at the mercy of its neighboring & many hopes will be

dashed.

[Chimera]

Apophis - It offers federal recognition, it offers opportunities for multi-nationals to invest in the region, it offers international recognition of the new federal state as part of Somalia. It offers the continuation of Ahmed Madoobe as the leader of this project, to say it provides nothing, is seriously disingeneous, when compared to the current situation that will literally lead to nothing for the dream of Jubbaland. The wave and interests that is sustaining the Federal government are trillion dollar countries, not poor African republics.

 

Xiin - I have no relations, but I agree to a certain extent, though Madoobe's team are as much to be blamed with regards to the current situation. The knee-jerk policies aren't helping anyone.

[xiinfaniin]

Apo,

 

Chimera wrote:

 

1) The Federal Government recognizes the election of Ahmed Madoobe, on the condition that the Raskamboni Brigade are incorporated into the SAF immediately, and their commanders sent to Mogadishu and Ankara for training. Ahmed Madoobe will have not engage a dialogue with any neighbouring/distant country that is not sanctioned and approved by the Federal Government

 

 

That I believe is a good start. If the election of Madoobe is recognized as it should , it implies the federal government also recognizes the selection of the VP and other important progress made by the Jubbaland project.

[Chimera]

Apophis;956032 wrote:

Lets put the potential economic benefits aside, as that interests me little and lets focus on the politics.

Politics and economics are different sides of the same coin, but since you insist.

 

You suggest the FG recognise Ahmed Madoobe and in return he must forfeit his armies and disown his VP (and what that stands for). To me, this can only lead to conflict between the different communities who agreed to form Jubbaland and would mean the destruction of the state as it currently stands. Politically, your plan would offer nothing to the current admin, besides Madoobe being "recognised" and it would leave the region at the mercy of the current leadership in Mogadishu. As I said, your plan offers nothing to J/L and everything to Mogadishu on a platter.

1) The recognition is important, as he will become a legitimate stakeholder equal to the other regional states. That is a major political gain, that nobody but the SFG can provide him with. The alternative is that Madoobe's team which does not control the region it claims will be undermined by an entity i.e the SFG, which has more political clout, access to serious funds and is in the process of building its army. The latter has all the time in the world, the former doesn't. If there are worries on the part of Madoobe that he would be replaced, an agreement could be signed, overlooked by the British UN envoy to Somalia and IGAD that stipulates Madoobe will be president of the region, before liberation and after, for the mandated duration of his office.

 

2) A new reconciliation conference has to happen, its something the IC has agreed to and aligned itself with the SFG on that point. The vacant seat of the VP would feature as one of the attractions to unite the communities, which is clearly not the case today. A reconciliation conference where the two top positions are already reserved is not a true reconciliation effort.

 

3) The forces of Madoobe will one way or another come under the jurisdiction of the Federal military, the days of random paramilitaries roaming in Somalia is coming to an end. That the SFG will train these commanders and upgrade them with knowledge and higher ranks, is something that should be commended, not opposed.

 

The SFG will not impose itself on the parts of Jubbaland Madoobe currently controls through the KDF, not with the help of Amisom, nor a reconstituted SAF. This issue will be handled through dialogue, and real-politicking, that will either result into a compromise or see Madoobe deemed a spoiler, and his influence steadily decline. The SFG is vastly more important to the international community than a single figure/admin in Somalia, to claim otherwise is to be out of touch with the political victory after political victory on the part of the SFG, and through the support of the IC.

[xiinfaniin]

Apo, I see your concern but the recognition of the election outcome with no preconditions should take care of it. Once recognized by the executive branch, Jubbaland will reciprocate the gesture by compromising on certain things. The VP is an integral part of Jubbaland election , any notion of partial recognition will not go far with the admin

[Chimera]

Apophis;956041 wrote:

1: There was no suggestion that Jubbaland will be looking into negotiations with other countries. That's a red herring.

This was clearly a reference to its close ties with Kenya, which is well documented by both Wiki-links, and recent reports.

 

2: Reducing the whole of Jubbaland to the acceptance of Ahmed Madoobe is dangerous and unacceptable. Such a move would weaken the state and allow its detractors to pick off the leading politicians of the region one by one. The state must be accept as whole, fullstop.

 

3: The army present in Jubbaland should not be wholly incorporated into the SAF commanded from Mogadishu as that would essentially emasculate the nascent state. Much better would be to turn the military there into local state forces that will be commanded by Jubbaland with limited loyalty to the FG.

This is unjustified paranoia, the Federal government has never committed a war-crime, or went against the ultimate wishes of any specific region in Somalia, regardless of the constitution debates, or disagreements on how to set-up a federal state. This is their damn national government we're are discussing they need closer ties with, not Nazi Germany.

[xiinfaniin]

Apophis;956074 wrote:

 

 

Jubbaland does not seek legitimacy from the SFG or its leaders but rather through the constitution, the final arbiter.

 

The state will soon secure its region (with the help of its allies) and will get its rightful share of resources, as guaranteed by the constitution whether Hassan Sheick agrees or not.And if anyone is running out of time then it's surely the current leadership in Mogadishu, with only 3 yrs left of its mandate. Jubbaland suffers no such constraints.

 

The reconciliation you're speaking of has already happened, the community in those regions spent considerable resources making it happen and it cannot so easily be pushed aside because you or the SFG (for reason which we can only guess) do not like its outcome. No clans were marginalised, no clans were robbed, everyone from a village in Jubbaland was given his fair share.

 

Of course some, due to the natural clan distributions, got more than others but that is as expected and it's something that will happen in other regions (where there's majority/minority clans) and it is how the current SFG is constituted, with the minority clans getting less than the majority clans. It's the law of the land.

 

And lastly, what you and many others seem to not understand is that Jubbaland is much bigger than one individual. It's not about Ahmed Madoobe and whether or not he's accepted in Mogadishu, he's merely a figurehead for a much larger political entity which cannot be bought with cheap trinkets.

Hear hear hear ya jamaacah

[Chimera]

Apophis;956074 wrote:

To me, they're separate but I digress.

One cannot flourish and benefit the people without the other.

 

You're trying very hard to appear neutral but the mask keeps slipping.

What mask, I have always been a national government supporter above regional interests, nothing is slipping here.

 

Jubbaland does not seek legitimacy from the SFG or its leaders but rather through the constitution, the final arbiter.

The Constitution is in the hands of the SFG, the legitimacy for each regional state comes through the recognition provided by the Federal government, especially new federal states.

 

You're putting the cart before the horse.

 

The state will soon secure its region (with the help of its allies) and will get its rightful share of resources, as guaranteed by the constitution whether Hassan Sheick agrees or not.

The mandate of these "allies" is to answer to Mogadishu who gave them permission to be in the country in the first place, and pressure is currently being applied to make the rehatted KDF fall in line, quite successfully I might add.

 

And if anyone is running out of time then it's surely the current leadership in Mogadishu, with only 3 yrs left of its mandate.

Considering the political victories the SFG has achieved in just 8 months, 3 years are more than enough to get the job done, not to mention prepare for re-election.

 

Jubbaland suffers no such constraints.

We'll see, in-fact I will bump this topic in a few month's time and see whether your still as confident.

 

The reconciliation you're speaking of has already happened, the community in those regions spent considerable resources making it happen and it cannot so easily be pushed aside because you or the SFG (for reason which we can only guess) do not like its outcome. No clans were marginalised, no clans were robbed, everyone from a village in Jubbaland was given his fair share.

You going up against the SFG, IGAD and local actors, putting your fingers in your ears and yelling "all was fair" will not get you anywhere.

 

Of course some, due to the natural clan distributions, got more than others but that is as expected and it's something that will happen in other regions (where there's majority/minority clans) and it is how the current SFG is constituted, with the minority clans getting less than the majority clans. It's the law of the land.

 

And lastly, what you and many others seem to not understand is that Jubbaland is much bigger than one individual. It's not about Ahmed Madoobe and whether or not he's accepted in Mogadishu, he's merely a figurehead for a much larger political entity which cannot be bought with cheap trinkets.

Its not bigger than the Somali Federal government, or the country of Somalia, its only one part, which is still majoritely under the yoke of Al-Shabaab, including its claimed population, towns and cities, and there is the readily available option to liberate these areas with different forces currently at the disposal of the Federal government, or being trained as we speak.

 

Genuine dialogue with the SFG is infinitely better than the alternative currently in progress.

[ElPunto]

Chimera - I think your 12 points are a good suggestion. Regarding point 1 - I don't see the President recognizing Madoobe - the crux of the disagreement lies there. Hassan Shiikh will not recognize Madoobe or the process that elected him as legitimate- he wants to start anew. And now he feels the IGAD wind in his sails - I don't see any desire to compromise. In short - in this episode - the President is not acting as a national leader.

 

The other key ingredient is that there is a clear process and criteria regarding state formation - it can't depend on the SFG offering or withdrawing a blessing simply on whim.

[Mintid Farayar]

Who is IGAD? What power does it have as an organization? What can it effect in the region? These are all questions that need to be addressed given the recent discovery of "IGAD" in this Forum What I mean is: When we refer to the UN, it's understood that the UN as an entity does not have its own enforcement powers but, rather, is empowered by the economies and militaries of the 'Big Power' members of the UN (with a particular emphasis on the Security Council Permanent Five).

 

So who's IGAD? What countries are members? Why are the communiques of IGAD anymore relevant than the communiques of any other multi-lateral organization? If Kenya is a member (and happens to be the member with the largest economy in IGAD - very relevant when it comes to determining the budgetary obligations of each country to the financing of IGAD's administration), why were its wishes sidelined by IGAD? Does IGAD's decision have any effect on Kenya's future actions in the Jubbas? If so, in what way?

 

Something to think about for discerning minds....

[xiinfaniin]

This is not about IGAD, it is a political disagreement between Jubbaland federal state and Somali federal government.

 

Jubbaland is a success story for those in the region. The president made a move that is politically detrimental to his presidency, he will call for reconciliation, Jubbaland will insist it represents the regions in question. Short of sending troops to topple the administration in Kismayo , president's tough talk will remain meaningless.

[Carafaat]

xiinfaniin;956117 wrote:

This is not about IGAD, it is a political disagreement between Jubbaland federal state and Somali federal government.

xiinfaniin;937456 wrote:

Another update from Kismayo:

 

Reports are coming in that an IGAD delegation visited the venue of the Conference today as a gesture of support

Not long ago you were justiying Jubbaland because of IGADs support. Today when IGAD supports the goverment to build regional admins, you are stating its no business for IGAD.

[xiinfaniin]

^^dhuusadii maa bilaabatay

 

IGAD does exist. But Kisamyo disagreement is between Jubbaland and Mogadishu government. If you have a problem with that , we understand for you have a problem with Kismayo clans

 

No one is complaining about IGAD, so why talk about IGAD awoowe ?