Faroole speaks..

[ElPunto]

Ngonge - he's not gambling his state - if JL 'fails' PL will still be around etc. He is gambling his personal political capital - but so is Culusow and Madoobe. Everyone is all in. At the end of the day - there will be a state formed there one way or another and Faroole will be on the right side of the debate.

[MoonLight1]

Ngonge I will answer you, the imam is confident for his public support of JL project since he has the entire support of PL population plus over 85% of D bloc (except few renegades from Caabudwaq enclave), also he has regional allies with this issue such as Kenya and the kililka 5aad government, its a big gamble but it seems he has what it takes to pay the consequences.

[NGONGE]

^^ Xiin, I do and I agree with him on that part. However, he put his full weight behind Jubbaland when the latest news have shown us all the number of the diplomatic setbacks that adminstration has been suffering at the hands of Hassan Sheikh. Now Jubbaland does not care for diplomacy much (because they hold the land itself) but the Imam should. I mean it's like he's going to send an army to Kismaayo to help Madoobe. His support all along would have been and shall remain political. Looking at it from that angle and (repeating the point abou the SFG's diplomatic wins) he is taking a big risk by declaring for Jubbaland this early in the game (and it's very early, you know).

 

ElPunto,

 

This Somalia, saaxib. Farole is PL and PL is Farole. There is no such thing as personal political capital. If Hassan Sheikh loses this game, the Federal Government loses and has its wings clipped. Likewise with Farole and Madobe.

 

Moonlight,

 

See above.

[Carafaat]

Faroole, faces fierce opposition at home. He is gambling that this federalism(more power for Puntland in Somalia) will save his political future. He has no other choice, then to gamble.

[xiinfaniin]

NGONGE,

 

We don't know what is going on behind the curtain---the feeds we are getting suggest that Faroole has modified his initial decision after few IGAD countries contacted him about Jubbaland. It is also obvious that Hassan Sheekh is making unforced mistakes by attacking Kenya. So the diplomatic wins from the IGAD meeting seems to have not been leveraged as it could have been by the president.

 

Also he made very clear that for Puntland to be a viable federal state, Jubbaland must be formed and gain the same status . His speech yesterday was inline with that. If Jubbaland fails , Faroole faces more consequential setbacks than bruised ego. And so does Somalia.

 

It is quite important for the political stability of the country that this project succeed.

[NGONGE]

^^ If Jubbaland "fails" it will only fail in it's current format but not as a federal state. PL is already an established federal state that is recognised by all. However, by meddling (OPENLY) in the Jubbaland fiasco, it will drag itself into a swamp that it may struggle to free itself from. By making it a win or lose situation, he's leaving himself open to the consequences of a loss, saaxib. What if Hassan Sheikh tames Jubbaland ( a state that is not in the hands of Farole, remember)? What if when doing so, Hassan gets greedy and decides to make use of the diplomatic spoils that, as a victor, he will surely have? What if these spoils include PL's positions and previous gains?

 

Remember, all this is about the two sides idea of federalism and their understanding of the constitution (one that the Imam already disputes).

 

Now if Jubbaland was a PL proxy that the Imam set up and planned to throw at the federal government way back when the roadmap was being agreed, I suppose I could understand why he is acting in the way he's acting now. But, it isn't! Not long ago, PL was opposed to Jubbaland. So that can't be it. That also shows that further fallouts are possible. So why bet the whole house on someone you can't possibly trust 100%?

[xiinfaniin]

^^I am not sure where you got that Puntland ever opposed Jubbaland.

 

But though I understand your caution of going all in with respect to the Imam, the same can be said about the president who stopped everything he was supposed to do and put all his eggs in Jubbland basket. You seem to be understanding why Hassan is doing that but somehow unable to understand why Faroole is making the moves he made. All I am saying is Faroole's move are quite safe and strategic:

 

1) By boldly supporting Jubbaland , he is ensuring federalism takes hold in Somalia

2) By Supporting Jubbaland the way he did, he is creating political alliance both at home in Puntland and in Jubbaland and in the diaspora

3) By saying he will mediate , he is making himself reasonable to the external forces -- a relevant, and reasonable player is always effective in politics . He is also cornering Hassan who seems to be firing all directions these days indiscriminately , Kenya has become the latest victim

 

4) If all fails, the Imam has a nuclear option , that shall remain nameless --I trust you could decipher it .

 

The calculation is simple NGONGE: Kismayo is a test for the commitment SFG made in honoring the federalism framework. If SFG reverses teh federalism gains of Jubbaland there is not government to honor and be part of

[Somalia]

Carafaat;955988 wrote:

Faroole, faces fierce opposition at home. He is gambling that this federalism(more power for Puntland in Somalia) will save his political future. He has no other choice, then to gamble.

That is correct.

 

The average man in Puntland, thinking of how to put bread on the table, how to get a job and become successful despite worrying economic situation such as the dollar-shilling saga, will support Faroole based on his stances against Mogadishu in something that has no effect on personal situation..

 

Bingo!

[NGONGE]

xiinfaniin;956001 wrote:

^^I am not sure where you got that Puntland ever opposed Jubbaland.

 

But though I understand your caution of going all in with respect to the Imam, the same can be said about the president who stopped everything he was supposed to do and put all his eggs in Jubbland basket. You seem to be understanding why Hassan is doing that but somehow unable to understand why Faroole is making the moves he made. All I am saying is Faroole's move are quite safe and strategic:

 

1) By boldly supporting Jubbaland , he is ensuring federalism takes hold in Somalia

2) By Supporting Jubbaland the way he did, he is creating political alliance both at home in Puntland and in Jubbaland and in the diaspora

3) By saying he will mediate , he is making himself reasonable to the external forces -- a relevant, and reasonable player is always effective in politics . He is also cornering Hassan who seems to be firing all directions these days indiscriminately , Kenya has become the latest victim

 

4) If all fails, the Imam has a nuclear option , that shall remain nameless --I trust you could decipher it

.

 

The calculation is simple NGONGE: Kismayo is a test for the commitment SFG made in honoring the federalism framework. If SFG reverses teh federalism gains of Jubbaland there is not government to honor and be part of

I understand why Hassan is doing it and I've already given you my preception of Hassan's presidancy; the man comes across as a total amatuer. For a man who has been in the job for a mere nine months, I fully expect such mistakes and ego trips. Furthermore, his whole job was really created through the hard work of the Imam and others.

 

The Imam on the other hand, has been in the job for several years and is in charge of a peaceful and developing region that's been around since 1998. A lot of work went into creating PL and making it what it is today, saaxib.

 

Now, if Hassan Sheikh loses, the IC that's been proping his government up will find another guy to carry the torch and attempt to lead Somalia in the a different direction. However, if the Imam fails, Puntland may be swallowed up by this federal government and lose many of its hard earned advantages.

 

1) Like I said earlier, he should have allowed his media and public to support Jubbaland without making it a PL official policy to do so.

 

2) The alliance here benefits Jubbaland more than it does PL. If JL loses, it simply loses "reconciliation" efforts that are only a few years old. But if PL loses, it loses an entire generation of progress.

 

3) The mediation point is null and void, saaxib. He's already openly come out in support of JL.

 

4) By getting too involved in the JL dispute, he has almost closed the door on the nuclear option.

 

I agree that Kismayo is a test on federalism, I just am not sure that Jubbaland and Puntland will pass such a test considering the way they chose to answer the difficult questions Hassan Sheikh put to them.

 

The IGAD recommendations (which were later approved by the IGAD leaders) gave Jubbaland plenty of room for politicking without the need for open confrontation.

 

1) It advised (read ordered) the federal government and Parliament of Somalia to expedite enactment of the necessary laws that govern the establishment of regional administration - How many members of parliament could PL & Jubbaland (plus all their supporters) muster? They should have fought this battle in Parliament, saaxib.

 

2) It called upon the stakeholders in Kismayo to go to Mogadishu and dialogue with the Federal Government regarding the interim regional administration. The "Stakeholders" control Kismayo, saaxib. There is no harm in going to Mogadishu and "dialoguing" until the cows come home. Again, they control the land, let Hassan Sheikh lose his temper first not the other way round.

 

3) It says that the FG should take the lead role in creating regional adminstrations. Fair enough, let them take the lead role. Let them pay for the tea and coffee and lobby whoever they want. If, as you have been telling us, the locals are all in agreement then the FG can not change anything here. It'll still come down to the fact that the vast majority of Jubbalanders are in support of Madoobe and that Madoobe has pysical control of the land.

 

Now, knowing all of the above, why in the world would the Imam choose to risk things in such a way? Could "Carafaat" be right?

[xiinfaniin]

^^Most of what you wrote is right , but we differ the risk Faroole is taking and whether it is necessary for him to get involved.

 

I do not see that much of a risk for his involvement. I believe he must get involved, staying on the side lines is not an option for him. If you recall, it was Faroole who supported the notion of Azania when Professor Gandi floated it during the Sharif presidency. So for Faroole this is a much improved product compared to how it looked at the beginning. He cannot abandon it.

 

The worst case scenario is for Jubbaland to fail, which means federalism, at least in the fashion Faroole expects it to look, fails before a referendum is held. In that case what he is doing now will help him justify whatever radical measure he will have to resort later. It wont be viewed as an erratic action ...it will have a logical flow to it i.e. I said this, I did this, etc...

 

So I disagree ; Faroole is not risking anything in a big way. All he is doing is advancing a vision for Somalia he so religiously believes , federalism. And you have to understand, federalism is a must at least for the D block community for Somalia to be revived. They lost Mogadishu in a big way, demographically and economically (things Hassan's of this world could hardly understand ), and the world understands ...so Faroole's insistence is not without merit or support.

[Daqane]

3) It says that the FG should take the lead role in creating regional adminstrations. Fair enough, let them take the lead role. Let them pay for the tea and coffee and lobby whoever they want. If, as you have been telling us, the locals are all in agreement then the FG can not change anything here. It'll still come down to the fact that the vast majority of Jubbalanders are in support of Madoobe and that Madoobe has pysical control of the land.

This is the crux of the matter the majority of the local population do not support the process that put into place a warlord as president of a region 75% out of the hands of the government and more so out of the hands of the RKB, the Kenyans supported this process because for the moment black santa is their guy in their oft stated intent of creating a buffer state as well as leverage in the gas/oil exploration off southern Somalia, for the kinsmen politicians in kenya a slice of the Ksh 15 billion contraband business out of kismayu into East africa is enough fagrant grease as the cantonese would say to motivate them in this moment, puntlands version of confederacy will die in the jubbas if the government succeeds in doing what it stated an interim admin, reconciliation conference then the formation of a regional state with popular mandate, thats why the puntlanders of all ilk in their wisdom are all over appealing to a d-block soldilarity that they in practice denigrate and debase every chance they get from the abandonment of khatumo and maakhir to the auction of ONLF citizens at the bi-annual ethiopian auction house, reer gedo have happily adn presciently ignored that particular charade due to experience and not supposition.

 

RKB with out thee Kenyans would be rolled up by a weakened shabaab ina matter of days, the issue is not them or other proxy's such as punt-land who have neither "nuclear option" beyond making de-facto what is de-jure an independent state, they keep on talking about Hassan's "obsession" on the jubbaland issue but he had made clear his position and what he is aiming from the very beginning and has stuck to his path regardless of the gales of wind from some quarters, he might have faulted in tactics but his strategy is the same and will grind on inexorably come what might may from the usual sectors...as for the denizens of jubba land they will get their administration and their rightful place in every ranking of independent Somalis.

 

The inevitable narrative being peddled again by the usual quarters, that any result that will come out of the nations capital regardless of the depth and breadth of reconciliation will be illegitimate due to their interests and RKB having to present their notions mano a mano with those of the representatives of all jubboyinka armed and unarmed proudly Somali and those who have taken self auctioning to an art form will be disappointed.

 

P.S ngonge this issue of who has the land...revisit ask the locals how the RKB house of cards is buttressed by kenyan intreasts

[xiinfaniin]

Oh now you are issuing threats! It that the directive yabnal Ceel Buur ?

 

Jubbaland is us, and will remain so .

 

Ahmed Madoobe's situational poem;

 

Ninkii aniga ii dudahayaa muu dibiro ciilka ,

oo muu 'dac' dhaco carada waa lala dillaacaaye

 

Haddii aanan daar adag ka dhalan amase daas xoogleh

Dibnahayga waa xiran lahaa si dad qaarkiise

[xiinfaniin]

^^Intay dadkii cayrsadeen bay nin Ugandan ah u heesayaan , caqli lix saax waaxid

 

 

There is a value in any observation gleaned by cultural anthropology , ye know. Daqane is very proud USCer, but wants to wear a national gown in plain sight

[xiinfaniin]

^^another reason to support Jubbaland ,don't you think