The Kismayo Situation As It Currently Stands....

[Mintid Farayar]

I've written countless posts in the past 6 months warning the supporters of the Jubbaland scheme that Hassan Sheikh's greatest asset is the diplomatic clout the West has imbued him with. For a specific time, the West will back him diplomatically to see if he can make a difference in South-West Somalia.

 

To challenge him in the diplomatic fora was a waste of political capital on the part of the Jubbaland supporters. Many laughed at this assertion as some fanciful notion yet the latest IGAD statement proved this, once again.

 

However, Ahmed Madobe and his supporters remain in control of most of Kismayo with the backing of the Kenyan armed forces. Hassan Sheikh remains powerless to remove them by force from the area.

 

So, the question remains, does he have enough support from Western donors to apply pressure on the Kenyans to abandon their sponsorship of Ras Kamboni? That remains to be seen...

 

Interestingly, both Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Madobe find themselves in the same position: Two Somali leaders dependent on external forces to maintain their leadership positions!

[Che -Guevara]

It's train wreck with no happy ending however you look at it. All parties are at fault and from the looks, the so called Somali leaders in any region are not sincere. Two things will never work in the Somali world, the use of external forces to impose one's will onto other and the fact that you could hoodwink into anybody into anything. Sincere reconciliation is needed at every level.

[nuune]

Welcome back Mintid, your last line says it all in a nutshel!

[Daqane]

Ras kambooni is not the issue neither is Ahmed Madoobe walaal you have indeed been stating the obvious on these forums for a while but you are mistaken if you think that the SFG was expecting more than this, what was needed was the unmasking of the kenyan hand behind the project called ras kambooni and the new jubba land project created as a smoke screen for this warlord grouping.

 

Kenya can not muster diplomatic cover any longer, either as a part of AMISOM or as a part of IGAD, to support the buffer zone projecting that they have clearly and often stated was their main reason for intervening in Somalia.

 

The SFG had the mandate from the election of the president the kenyans wished to change the rules of the game mid wicket and if anything the rules of the game have merely restated by the IGAD and other members of AMISOM.

 

It could have been madoobe or Hiiraale or what ever other puppet the kenyans would have choosen, we are keeping an eye on the puppeteer and not the puppet walaal.

 

The second issue was the future constitutional dispensation of the somali republic genuine federalism or the loose confederacy envisioned by the punt land admin and since the IGAD restatement is clear the new dispensation is Mogadishus to do with as they envision.

 

However, Ahmed Madobe and his supporters remain in control of most of Kismayo with the backing of the Kenyan armed forces

The 2 ways this situation will continue mintid is if the Kenyans totally ignore and contravene all the agreements they have entered in futher overt support of black santa, or the SFG bungles up a local admin so terrifically it leads to bloodshed soley traced to the SFG.

 

On the other hand the goverment has the momentum mandate and big asss LED light is shining on all kenyan actions from now on, this was merely setting up the tableau in the jubbas...nothing more...

[D.O.C]

Mintid Farayar;955047 wrote:

I've written countless posts in the past 6 months warning the supporters of the Jubbaland scheme that Hassan Sheikh's greatest asset is the

diplomatic clout

the West has imbued him with. For a specific time, the West will back him diplomatically to see if he can make a difference in South-West Somalia.

 

To challenge him in the diplomatic fora was a waste of political capital on the part of the Jubbaland supporters. Many laughed at this assertion as some fanciful notion yet the latest IGAD statement proved this, once again.

 

However, Ahmed Madobe and his supporters remain in control of most of Kismayo with the backing of the Kenyan armed forces. Hassan Sheikh remains powerless to remove them

by force

from the area.

 

So, the question remains, does he have enough support from Western donors to apply pressure on the Kenyans to abandon their sponsorship of Ras Kamboni? That remains to be seen...

 

Interestingly, both Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Madobe find themselves in the same position:

Two Somali leaders dependent on external forces to maintain their leadership positions!

Wait a minute, the so called somali president has no power to kick kenyan troops out whom has no right to be in the country without the head of states permission, and this madoobe guy is siding with the enemey of his president as well as his country and yet he is not taking any orders from the federal government head of state. And even to make it worse the somali president has his eyes only on somaliland as his number one enemy in which he badmouthed only few days ago. I mean what country is this:D???????? This is a chaotic country isn't it?

[Mintid Farayar]

Thanks for the welcome back. The Kenyan 'Standard', today in an analysis, had this to say on the situation:

 

______________________________________________________________

 

 

It is understood that Kenya is counting on the new administration at Kismayu to take charge of the region and form a buffer zone before its troops, alongside the African Union (AU) forces, fade out quietly.

.........................

 

“Just getting rid of the Al-Shabaab would have been simple, but the new challenges like stabilising Jubaland, handing over the region to a new leadership have made it impossible to tell when we are ever going to leave Somalia,” a captain in charge of one of the troops in Somalia told The Standard on Sunday in an interview at Kismayu. “We have also been delayed by the conferences that have seen the election of new leaders. Details are still sketchy but we are working with a tentative plan of moving to capture the remaining towns, especially in the Gedo region. The truth is we are not leaving this place any time in the near future if events on the ground remain this way,” the captain not authorised to speak to the media said.

 

But it is Mogadishu’s refusal to participate in the political process, which is now at the final stages in Kismayu that is proving to be the greatest headache for President Madobe’s leaders

........................

 

After capturing the port city of Kismayu, seen as a major step in the fight against Kismayu, Kenyan troops, which are part of an African force in the country were expected to start an exit plan, and the success of president Madobe is seen as a critical part of this plan. Madobe, however, did not have a timeframe when he thinks his government will be able to run without external military support.

 

“I see a day when the AMISOM will leave in peace after liberating the whole of Jubaland, but I cannot say when exactly that will be. The timeframe will depend on the progress,” he added.

........................

 

It has also emerged that Mogadishu could be dishing out money to elders in Kismayu, with a view to weaken the support that Madobe has on the ground.

 

“We have seen the delegation from Mogadishu here in Kismayu at a local hotel call out individuals aside. Talking to them, we have established that some are being given some money. People are very poor here and some money can easily turn one clan against the other,” the source said.

 

 

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000084501&story_title=Kenya-diplomatic-dilemma-as-kenya-mulls-over-somalia-exit-strategy

[N.O.R.F]

A sad situation. How will things ever change when its ALWAYS a case of 'wax qabso' instead of compromise for the common good. Whats even worse is that the qurbo joog intellects as well as the uneducated don't seem to want to compromise.

[nuune]

It has also emerged that Mogadishu could be dishing out money to elders in Kismayu, with a view to weaken the support that Madobe has on the ground.

 

“We have seen the delegation from Mogadishu here in Kismayu at a local hotel call out individuals aside. Talking to them, we have established that some are being given some money. People are very poor here and some money can easily turn one clan against the other,” the source said.

That is an alarming issue!!

[Carafaat]

IV. Findings and recommendations

 

Based on the summit communiqué of 3rd May 2013 and particularly on the five principles enumerated there in, the Ambassadorial team conducted its fact finding and confidence building mission, made observations and came up with the following recommendations:

 

The Federal Government and Parliament of Somalia to expedite enactment of the necessary laws that govern the establishment of regional administration.

 

 

Recognizing the fragility of the situation in Kismayo, the Federal Government should timely convene and lead reconciliation conference with support of IGAD while consulting key Stakeholders in Kismayo.

 

Meanwhile the mission calls upon the stakeholders in Kismayo to go to Mogadishu and dialogue with the Federal Government regarding the interim regional administration.

 

The IGAD Ambassadorial team proposes that the Federal Government of Somalia takes the lead role in the formation of regional administrations including Juba regions.

 

Noting that the Federal Government and other actors have expressed willingness in IGAD role to facilitate the process, IGAD and the Federal Government should be more proactive. In this regard, IGAD to expedite support to the Federal Government in its priorities including the formation of regional Administration;

 

Calling on IGAD secretariat to provide technical support to the federal government as and when requested;

 

Calls upon the Federal Government of Somalia to provide immediate security and logistical support to the regions;

 

Calls upon the Federal government of Somalia to immediately integrate the various militia forces into a unified national command of Somali National Army and logistically provide force sustainability;

 

The AMISOM Sector II should be provided with a political support unit to help in dealing with the political aspect of the disputes in Kismayo and to facilitate cooperation and coordination between the sector and the Federal Government.

Mintid,

 

IGAD's recommendations offer concrete steps to get out of the current deadlock. This includes the coordination between the AMISOM troops in Kismayo and the Federal Goverment. Kenya does not have real manouvering space if it follows the recent IGAD recommendations/communique. Any other move by Kenya could be considered as sabotage of the IGAD facilitated process.

[Haatu]

Daqane;955056 wrote:

The second issue was the future constitutional dispensation of the somali republic genuine federalism or the loose confederacy envisioned by the punt land admin and since the IGAD restatement is clear the new dispensation is Mogadishus to do with as they envision.

With this I'm 100% behind DF. Faroole and co, if given their way, will lead to the balkanisation of Somalia.

 

As for the Kismaayo fiasco, I believe that the FG has won this and Madoobe should negotiate with Culusoow and try to save his skin.

[Mintid Farayar]

Somali President says Kenyan Peacekeepers 'Misbehaved'

 

Gabe Joselow

May 26, 2013

 

ADDIS ABABA — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed has expressed concern about Kenyan peacekeepers in the Somali port city of Kismayo, as the government seeks to regain control of the region. The Somali president addressed the issue at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa.

 

Speaking on the sidelines of the summit Sunday, Hassan said his government is in discussions with the African Union after peacekeepers from Kenya allegedly declined to provide security for a group of ministers visiting Kismayo earlier this month.

 

“For us we have no complaint against Kenya, but part of the AMISOM contingent on the ground have misbehaved and they operated outside their mandate," he said.

 

Kenyan troops who helped to liberate Kismayo from al-Shabab militants last year have since integrated into the AU peacekeeping force known as AMISOM.

 

Despite the grievance, Hassan said he has regional support for his government’s efforts to re-establish its authority in Somalia, as the country recovers from two decades of civil war.

 

He praised the eastern African organization known as IGAD, which includes Kenya, for providing technical assistance in state-building initiatives.

 

“IGAD has clearly indicated its role as a supportive to the Somali government, and we are very much satisfied with that position of IGAD," he said.

 

In particular, the regional organization is trying to help the Somali government sort out a political crisis in the Jubaland region of Somalia, which includes the port city of Kismayo.

 

Community leaders, militia groups and other stakeholders have independently arranged to create an independent state in the region, and selected former militia leader Ahmed Madobe, who worked closely with the Kenyan military, as the region's president.

 

“There is a group in Kismayo who make unilateral decisions by their own, they are Somalis of course, they have views, we respect their views as they see it, but one thing that is very important in Somalia, today, there is only the federal Somali government, which is wholly owned by the Somali people," said Hassan.

 

President Hassan also said that these groups in Somalia were getting “certain signals” and had been “wrongly lead” to believe they could establish their own state.

 

Hassan said his government has a “very clear plan” for rebuilding the country by establishing interim administrations in the regions to clear the way for eventual statehood.

 

He said the country’s first priority is to provide security, noting that while al-Shabab has been mostly defeated, there are still areas of the country under the group’s control.

 

http://www.voanews.com/content/somalia-president-hassan-kenya-peacekeepers-misbehaved/1668797.html

[Mintid Farayar]

^^^ The usual hubris of recent Somali leaders. One gains a temporary upper hand and then proceeds to overplay the hand. Hassan might be picking the wrong fight at the wrong time - Kenya is in transition to a new administration with a leadership under International Criminal Court investigation(the worst of times to kick them in the teeth). To damage relations with a neighboring country the Southern Somalia economy is highly dependent on is not a wisely thought out strategy on Hassan Sheikh's part.

 

He's won a diplomatic victory in Addis..... now, he seems to be overplaying that hand....