Jubaland Administration Halts Federal Government's Provocation

[Mario B]

Chimera;955525 wrote:

Warya Che, What's with your subliminal messages? :rolleyes:

[Tillamook]

Macallinka;955658 wrote:

I also don't like the way reer Puntland websites are covering these stories , one title reads :

Waftigi DF oo Muqdisho lagu celinayo ayakoo aan Kismaayo galin

.....they are just adding more fuel to the fire.

 

War waxaan oo kale ayaa adduunyada yaaacaya! What do you mean Puntland websites are adding fuel to the fire? Is it not true that Culusow's men have been refused entry into Kismayu city? Huh?

 

Please, next time desist from making such silly statements!

 

Many non-Puntlander owned websites have ALSO reported that story and for you to only single out those guys and paint them as folks with other sinister motives is quite frankly hogwash and puerile.

[Baashi]

It does not look good. Allow sahal, Libaax seedy bey niman salaaxdeene..

 

So what now? Consider the following bullets and if you found them reasonable tell me where do we go from here -- the ditch we found ourselves in:

 

1 - IGAD kicked ball back to Villa Somalia as President Hassan requested.

 

2 - Kenyan forces in South Somalia are there in a UN mandate and part of AMISOM. They want to stay put along their border for obvious reasons. They are mum and waiting and watching how Hassan plays the ball in his back yard.

 

3 - Ethiopia has its ducks in a raw and waiting to see how things pan out.

 

4 - Oil companies who are pretty interested in preempting Turkey, Arabs and China and reinstate the valid contracts they've entered with Somali government (1980s) want these agreements honored. To get what they want they need to prop up Hassan government so they can push back all the newbies in the block and get a wet signature on the dotted lines.

 

5 - Hassan won the diplomatic fight fair and square. Now he got what he wished for the outside world wants Hassan's government to resolve Kismayo's stalemate. President Hassan has no credibility in JL constituents. He poisoned the well so to speak and now he desperately needs the folks who call the shots in Kismayo to work with him in finding a way out of the political stalemate of his making.

 

6 - JL has its back against wall. There is no card left in its hand other than playing hardball. One good scenario would be to accept IGAD's recommendations in toto except the clause that asks them to go to Mogadishu.

 

7 - What is JL willing to compromise on? This is toughie!! Compromise they must though!

 

8 - What is SFG willing to compromise on? Under no circumstance will Hassan want to fail after moving earth and heaven to get IGAD out of the internal Somali politics! He asked for owning the process (which is by the way a brilliant move on his part) now he got it he has to deliver...

 

9 - Farole could give a helping hand by positioning himself as a mediator. Would Hassan swallow his pride and accept to sit on the mediation dirrin between SFG and JL in Garowe.

 

10 - US wants to get back on the saddle and move against AS

 

Now put all these scenarios and assumptions and mix them up and watch how each interest group, Somalis and non-Somalis, prioritize their interest and compel other interest groups to make a move..

 

In this three dimensional Chess game guess who are the pawns!!

[Macallinka]

Tillamook;955667 wrote:

War waxaan oo kale ayaa adduunyada yaaacaya! What do you mean Puntland websites are adding fuel to the fire? Is it not true that Culusow's men have been refused entry into Kismayu city? Huh?

 

Please, next time desist from making such silly statements!

 

Many non-Puntlander owned websites have ALSO reported that story and for you to only single out those guys and paint them as folks with other sinister motives is quite frankly hogwash and puerile.

War sxb Puntland websites are going nuts on Kismaayo issues and its clear for everyone to see. As if they have more stake in Jubbaland issues than others !

[Tillamook]

^

War ka kac meesha waryaa. Everybody is going nuts over Kismayu issues!

[Macallinka]

^ok sxb

[Carafaat]

Baashi;955668 wrote:

It does not look good.

Allow sahal, Libaax seedy bey niman salaaxdeene.

.

 

So what now? Consider the following bullets and if you found them reasonable tell me where do we go from here -- the ditch we found ourselves in:

 

1 - IGAD kicked ball back to Villa Somalia as President Hassan requested.

 

2 - Kenyan forces in South Somalia are there in a UN mandate and part of AMISOM. They want to stay put along their border for obvious reasons. They are mum and waiting and watching how Hassan plays the ball in his back yard.

 

3 - Ethiopia has its ducks in a raw and waiting to see how things pan out.

 

4 - Oil companies who are pretty interested in preempting Turkey, Arabs and China and reinstate the valid contracts they've entered with Somali government (1980s) want these agreements honored. To get what they want they need to prop up Hassan government so they can push back all the newbies in the block and get a wet signature on the dotted lines.

 

5 - Hassan won the diplomatic fight fair and square. Now he got what he wished for the outside world wants Hassan's government to resolve Kismayo's stalemate. President Hassan has no credibility in JL constituents. He poisoned the well so to speak and now he desperately needs the folks who call the shots in Kismayo to work with him in finding a way out of the political stalemate of his making.

 

6 - JL has its back against wall. There is no card left in its hand other than playing hardball. One good scenario would be to accept IGAD's recommendations in toto except the clause that asks them to go to Mogadishu.

 

7 - What is JL willing to compromise on? This is toughie!! Compromise they must though!

 

8 - What is SFG willing to compromise on? Under no circumstance will Hassan want to fail after moving earth and heaven to get IGAD out of the internal Somali politics! He asked for owning the process (which is by the way a brilliant move on his part) now he got it he has to deliver...

 

9 - Farole could give a helping hand by positioning himself as a mediator. Would Hassan swallow his pride and accept to sit on the mediation

dirrin

between SFG and JL in Garowe.

 

10 - US wants to get back on the saddle and move against AS

 

Now put all these scenarios and assumptions and mix them up and watch how each interest group, Somalis and non-Somalis, prioritize their interest and compel other interest groups to make a move..

 

In this three dimensional Chess game guess who are the pawns!!

Baashi,

 

Your analysis of the current situation is quite comprehensive. Only thing I would add for

consideration are the IGAD missions recommendation regarding AMISOM in Kismayo. IGAD

rightly concluded there were "coordination" issues between the Kenyan contigent and the Federal

Goverment and rigthly recommended (political) coordination between Amisom and Federal Goverment.

 

I think this rigthly gives the goverment the arguments to object to the Kenyan contribution to Amisom.

[ElPunto]

Two things will not change. Kenya will not leave. And the people in the region will demand self-governance as allowed by the constitution with a limited role for the SFG. There is limited room to manuover for the President to achieve his objectives without causing further antagonism and loss of confidence in his leadership.

[Jacpher]

I'm not sure if Hassan can handle Jubaland without sustaining further damage politically. He has managed to polarize the country and the political scene into two extreme ends; H vs D in just short nine months in Office. That's one helluva record. Jubaland has time and again invited him to the conference table but no avail. I think now they're trying a different route given their recent rhetoric. The way I see it, they have nothing to lose and no incentive to gain to start all over again but Hassan has bet on his presidency on Jubaland. Jubaland goes, so does his presidency.

[malistar2012]

FG needs leadership change Mr President Hassan and PM sacid with all do respect it has been 8 month the troops haven't fired shot yet its disappointment .

 

now we have rebel leader a former alshabaab over powering arresting your officials in airport that's only 500 km away its dam shame. Raskombani milities are Threatening your legitimizes .

 

 

1. DF minister should get fired asap

2. Interior minister should Get fired asap

 

they failed their job ..............................we need strong man not twitter or activist ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Mr Hassan is playing moderate this does not work in Somalia

[Jacpher]

^Perhaps you need to quit being a keyboard commander in SOL and fly over there and do it yourself.