Implications of the IGAD Report on Jubbaland

[Abtigiis]

The IGAD fact-finding mission to Jubbaland has issued its report. Spins notwithstanding, there can be little doubt that the report supported the Federal Government’s position. It recognized that the Government should have led and still should lead the process of establishing regional states. It has recognized that the process’s inclusivity is contestable. It has called on the interim regional administration to enter into dialogue with Mogadishu. On the surface, it is a clear diplomatic victory to the Federal Government of Somalia. It should please all Somalis if neighbouring countries, who had been undermining the sovereignty of Somalia, are reversing their negative policies. But has the IGAD report altered the power equation and reality in Jubbaland or Somalia in any significant way? Does it change the status quo? Will the actions of the IGAD member countries – particularly Ethiopia and Kenya – be consistent with their political statements? These are an answered questions, which should be interrogated.

 

It is my opinion that the IGAD report:

 

1) Has put President Hassan on the spotlight by denying him the “foreign meddling” scarecrow. Whether calculated for this effect, or by default, the IGAD move shifted the political stage from Addis Ababa and Nairobi to Mogadishu and Kismaayo. Mogadishu will have to own up its failure henceforth.

 

2) Did not move the essential parameters of the political conflict between Mogadishu and Kismaayo that much. If the FGS calls for reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, and Sheikh Madoobe and Fartaag refuse to attend, they will be outlaws but as long as AMISOM and Kenyan forces do not move to fight Ras Kambooni militia, they will remain outlaws who rule their fief. They have already withdrawn to the castle of their clans, and that constituency will remain with them.

 

3) If the President asks foreign forces to attack Somalis who disagreed with him, it is a worrying reversal of his pronounced political belief. A President using foreigners to impose his will on a rebellious political constituency – not terrorits like Alshabab – in a fragile country, can lead to the break-up of the country. More so when the national healing agenda has not moved an inch forward. For him to be able mobilize international forces against Ras Kambooni and the interim Jubbaland adminstration, he will need to have the support of at least some sections of the D block, so that it is not seen as persecution against a clan.

 

4) Any potential reconciliation or reconstitution of the Jubbaland adminstration will have to include Ahmed Madoobe and Fartaag, and has little chance of succeeding without yielding ground to their core desires. In short, the President will negotiate with the same people he wanted to avoid, only after losing so much political capital by way of sulking clans.

 

In conclusion, there are no new beginnings. We are back to square one. Compromise and negotiation between Somalis is the solution.

[nuune]

I hate to see folks here celebrating IGAD ayaa sidan tiri and IGAD ayaa waxan soo saartey, who is IGAD, sovereignty is lost, the Somali government doesn't see its Sovereignty is being undermined, but sees only one region as an obstacle to its very existance.

 

 

That is the sad part as one Soler puts it.

[Cambuulo iyo bun]

nuune;954339 wrote:

I hate to see folks here celebrating IGAD ayaa sidan tiri and IGAD ayaa waxan soo saartey, who is IGAD, sovereignty is lost, the Somali government doesn't see its Sovereignty is being undermined, but sees only one region as an obstacle to its very existance.

 

 

That is the sad part as one Soler puts it.

well put

[Abtigiis]

That is the sad thing about us. But it is a hurt long administered into our psyche. We have no principles, we have narrow interests. The same Gabbal who was nearly about to hang himself a week ago, allegedly because Kenya, Ethiopia and IGAD were undermining the sovereignty of Somalia, will embrace Ethiopia and Kenya if that means this time around they will be imposing Barre and not Sheikh Ahmed Madoobe. The same man celebrates when foreigners tell the Somali Government how it should handle an internal political conflict.

 

IGAD has exonerated itself with this report, and therefore will not remain a scarecrow that the FGS will use to excuse its inadequacy.

[SayidSomal]

nuune;954339 wrote:

I hate to see folks here celebrating IGAD ayaa sidan tiri and IGAD ayaa waxan soo saartey, who is IGAD, sovereignty is lost, the Somali government doesn't see its Sovereignty is being undermined, but sees only one region as an obstacle to its very existance.

 

 

That is the sad part as one Soler puts it.

indeed, though that is not the only sad thing.

[SayidSomal]

To me the way forward out of this quandary is for Madobe and his deputy to go Mogadishu even if they are not invited and ask to seat with SFG leadership and parliament. They should propose that they be named the interim administration of the Juba and be tasked with to organise new conference in a year or six months time.

[malistar2012]

IGAD created this mess , Jubbaland issue was before President Hassan election.

 

 

1. You have rebel leader carving and entire region naming him self the president with no regards to FG.

2. SFG send numerous time delegation to Kismayo and where told Fk off and some occasion denied access to city ,

3 SFG Request sh Modaba to come to the nation capital for dialogue he declined that showing his above FG.

 

 

SFG did was best for the region and solving issue without bloodshed , Using IGAD as tool since they are funding and facilitating Sh Modaba .

[Mooge]

this was really a good report for jubaland. no spin here

 

ninyoow i see the report differently than laymen HAGist Damjadiists around here. this report actually legitimized Madoobe. He is the key and main stakeholder and others are "minority that their voice should be heard" according to IGAD. that is big ninyoow.

 

it was a big win for the president of jubaland, Mr. Madoobe. he was legitimized in the process.

 

the report also doesn't dismiss his recent election. it says the election created "tension" and that is all. It didn't say election(S) with an "S" and means Hiiraale didn't have another separate election process of equal value.

 

The report urges the federal goverment to help existing Jubaland establish local regional admins (local city and individual regional governors) and provide support to the process in money and manpower. It doesn't say the FEDERAL STATE OF JUBALAND is illegitimate and the formation of Federal State should be started over. not at all.

 

ninyoow this is a big coup for Madoobe. nobody expected IGAD to dismiss qoslaye when everyone is trying to bring back Somalia. qoslaye was waiting for the declaration that JUBALAND FEDERAL STATE doesn't exist and everything should be started over again, but that is not what IGAD said. igad urged the FSG to help jubaland establishement of regional admins. regional admins are local and are different from FEDERAL STATE.

 

mooge and his team known this was a good report. it is a big win for jubaland.

 

let the game move foward ninyoow. ciyarti haday bilabatay.

[A_Khadar]

nuune;954339 wrote:

I hate to see folks here celebrating IGAD ayaa sidan tiri and IGAD ayaa waxan soo saartey, who is IGAD, sovereignty is lost, the Somali government doesn't see its Sovereignty is being undermined, but sees only one region as an obstacle to its very existance.

 

 

That is the sad part as one Soler puts it.

+1m

[Carafaat]

nuune;954339 wrote:

I hate to see folks here celebrating IGAD ayaa sidan tiri and IGAD ayaa waxan soo saartey, who is IGAD, sovereignty is lost, the Somali government doesn't see its Sovereignty is being undermined, but sees only one region as an obstacle to its very existance.

 

 

That is the sad part as one Soler puts it.

The Somali goverment has defended its souvereignity. The Jubbaland process was a Kenyan/IGAD supported and financed process. Which the Somali goverment opposed from the beginning. IGAD candhuufteedi ayee dib u liqday.

[Waranle_Warrior]

My input regarding the implications of the report:

 

1. Both sides need to show due care and compromise

2. The SFG must accept the formation of a federal state of Jubbaland and take its mandated role in the process.

3. Ahmed Madoobe and the current admin must accept and accommodate all the demands of the SFG regarding the formation of the federal state of Jubaland even if that means re-elections, widening the process, restructuring the current conference organisers.

4. The SFG mustn't have any decision making nor dictate matter but allow the people of Jubbaland and elders to own the process and have the final decision making.

 

In a nutshell, all parties will have to stick to the rules in the books as all eyes including that of IGAD and IC will be on everyone's actions in order to stay away from further conflict, blame and counter blame of both parties and reversal of the progress made against Alshabaab thus far.

[Chimera]

Chess, not checkers!

 

 

[Haatu]

Somalis need a leader who knows how to talk with the variety of clans and cut a deal with each one. They need an afmiinshaar and I doubt Culusow is cut out for the task.

[nuune]

^^ We don't need Afmiinshaar, or Turfatoore, or Fajiiste, or Caadaqaate, or Kisinfaal, we need masuul Lillaahi ah, Laqdaba aan aqoon, dadka u wada simanyihiin, kan xooga leh iyo kan xooga yar u wada arko iney hal mida yihiin, kan dhulka yar iyo kan dhulka ballaadhan u wada arka iney simanyihiin, kan tirada badan iyo kan laga tirada badanyahey u arka iney simanyihiin, kulana dhaqma qof kasta cadaalad, intaas kaliya haddii la helo masuul leh ama yeelan karo waa guul u soo hoyatey ummada Soomaaliyeed.

[nuune]

inuu adiga kaa dhalan doono qofkaa laga yaabo(in case aad gabadhii aad the park ku aragtey is guursataan), rajada ha dilin, 22 sano ayaan rajo ku noo aheyn, inaar