SOL: Where priggish goat-skinners parade as political pundits

[The Zack]

N.O.R.F;952362 wrote:

Looks like A&T got Xiin and Zack's SOS PM

:D are you saying we called for a backup? Waar we don't need one specially when we are right.

[Miyir]

Chimera

 

Reading what you wrote that is far from the truth, Ngong have a point calling you nothing but a dreamer, that hides behind Nationalist card anyone who is objective will see the truth and its out there unless your blind to the truth.

 

All things you listed have nothing to do with Qoslaaye and gang, almost all was on the table before he usurped the president office with little money from Qatar and brotherhood. that shows your either supporting him and his gang for clannish reasons or you don't understand IC and its design for Somalia.

 

The only thing Qoslaaye and gang succeed so far is kill all the hope we had before his presidency and rekindle tribal hate between communities and set us back a decades.

[Nin-Yaaban]

A&T doing drive-by postings. Comes on SoL, posts something and quickly disappears. Waryaa Wlc back dee. How are things with you?

[Gabbal]

Abtigiis-

 

Qofka markaad goojinaysid, lama maago. I am not sure where your avowed sentiments are emanating from, but I will let you know you are overly sentimentalizing a pragmatic political expression verbalized by me in whatever capacity. You highlighted a number of points some of which are rooted in a realistic observation of my participation in this fora, I wil admit; nontheless you take much away from it in the politically expedient manner you attempted to (mis-) provide a rationale for my conduct. I think it is important to put your goojis in perspective. You and I come from the two communities most affected by the issue on a first person basis irrespective of the proportionality of impact we feel in whatever degree. In point, you are pro-IGAD project and I am not. Whenever you are of the mindset to critique me for any purpose on this issue, it must be understood in this overriding present context. You do not hold moral superiority over me, as acknowledged in what I thought was an honest injunction by Ngonge, but that we are on an equal plane both attempting to push a political narrative that on the surface seems at odds. Therefore, I will advise you to argue your narrative and push why you believe it is the right one on its own terms and merits rather than attempting to empower it at the expense of my narrative.

 

With that said, I will address your points.

 

1. It cannot be judged as a "twist" if I highlight the elephant in the room. Kenya and IGAD is that elephant. It would be exceptionally dishonest to argue otherwise. I am not of the theory this clan can defeat that clan or vice versa or this clan can chase that clan or not. With all do respect, your observation of that as my overriding motive is one which I disagree with. It is true, I do feel the current circumstance does disproportionately empower some and disproportionately unempower some. Even so, the nature of that circumstance is a secondary issue that reflects itself in a symptomatic occurrence of a greater problem. Discussing and addressing that greater problem is not a denial of the historical long-runnning civil war wrangling over Kismaayo. No; one does not negate the other but both most be analyzed in separate terms without diminishing the Importance of either. We have wikileaks and exposed diplomatic cables. We have news reports and diplomatic testimony to go of off. My friend, Kenya through IGAD has explicit grand designs in a predatory patronship that is not mutually beneficial to the primary partners involved in the mold of Somalia and Kenya nor the secondary partners in the mold of Somalia and Jubbaland and neither in the tertiary partners involved in the mold of the various special interest groups in Jubbaland. In short, recognition of this existenting overriding reality is not one that attempts to provide a denial of the long-standing and systematically problematic political fissure that Kismaayo has witnessed.

 

2. I am for Jubbaland. I support the unmistakable reality that attempts to reflect the political understanding in the area wishing to espouse itself in a federal union of the three trans-Jubba regions. It is not accurate to argue there is a conditonality to my and many other's political acquisition of that reality in that there is a placement of acceptance or refusal based on mitigating factors that are within our scope of interest. If I have ever given that impression, and I realize some may have derived that from some of my more lax commentary, then it is one which I apologize for. My position is clear and has been clear even when I have been accused of militarily, politically, or otherwise encouraging the actions taken by my own special interest group. It is not about waking up the morning with one mindset and ending my afternoon with one. It is about enouraging a sustainable end to the protracted problem thereby faciliating a durable peace, good neighborliness, and a secure environment that leads to mature and independent political partnership that boosts the confidence the parties involved and forcasts a sense of ownership irrespective of the mold and appearance of any leadership now or tomorrow. IGAD's project does nothing to aid or even contribute to that socio-political vision for the contested area and that has been my position. Ironically, the recent selection we witnessed actually substracts from that dream.

 

3. It is not appropriate for my person to comment on the nature of my "open-mindedness" as you had leveled against me in that context. It is relevant for me to simply say I disagree with the basis of that argument being mindful of the fact it exists in a parameter of your controlling. I am not for war. I find it commendable that armed methods of solving the situation has not been attempted. Even if one remarks that the mandate of Kenyan troops under the helmet of AMISOM has contributed to a force multiplication of the peaceful nature of the political disagreement, as a keen observer of this issue it is my conclusion there is a form of political maturity that has been shown by the parties involved. Essentially, the parties involved have taken heed of past experiences in the region and calculated the sustainability of a political solution being derived from force as not being particularly encouraging. For that, they all are commendable and they have my confidence in that perspective. Again, I am not entirely sure where one factor is analyzed at the expense of the other. It is completely without reason for you to imply, I disagree with the IGAD project so therefore I wish for conflict and because that conflict unnecessarily empowers the Shabaab that I am then a proponent of Shabaab resurgence. Is that really a mature and honest conjuncture for me to respond to? I am of the opinion it is not and kindly call you to stop thinking in either or and really for that matter employ judicial judgement that does not attempt to trivialize the basis of the argument in a holistic capacity as well as independent factoring.

 

Abtigiis, we are not in agreement on some of the issues but there is a lot of room for growth that we can both empower and capatilize on. My personal advise to you is try to rise above political expediency and discontinue seeking aid from subjective demonizations used as a vehicle of which to ride on the back of for a short-term calcultion of political triumph and moral superiority as you had visualized.

 

With that said, I appreciate your earnest response and will accept your advise and goodwill equally in the hopes of capatalizing, as I said, on the tremendous room for growth between our positions.

[genius pauper.]

@ gabal, if what you stated is true, why support bare hiraale,? that hints otherwise.

 

ps. you can't demonstrate your hate for Kenyan troops in kismayu port, through the support of bare hiraale. the two are different.

 

 

@ngonge, your stance that ''we are all bad guys'' is not sincere enough and real. either you condone the status quo, or you are overriding an ill view you hold.

[Abtigiis]

Dear Gabbal,

 

Horta goojisga ogolow…iyo in lagu maago. Xumaana ha u qaadaan, ragu wuu ismaagaa. Koleey nin adag inaad tahay unban kuu maagay ee hadii kale with tremendous respect for both of them - Oba Hiloowle iyo Xaaji Xundjuf - baan isku qaadi lahaa! :D

 

On the issues,

 

(1) It is a logical fallacy to argue that because B comes after A, A is the reason for B. I do not support Jubbaland nor do I reject it. I told you I have no preferred choice on that issue. Therefore your assertion that I support IGAD is not correct. The gist of my argument is if IGAD is wrong, whose job it is to confront it and stop it? Is that not the role of President Hassan and the current leadership? Let them do that and you will see whether I will support the FG of Somalia or IGAD. The point being President Hassan cannot continue to lavish Ethiopia and Kenya with laudatory epithets and grandiose rhetoric of how supportive they are by day, and cannot whine about their interference and backstabbing by night. If what matters to him is his tenure, which I suspect is the case, he will dance around like he is currently doing because he fears irking Ethiopia and Kenya will shorten his political life. If what matters to him is the conviction that he should stand for the interest of his country – and is ready to accept the consequences of his decisions – he will ask IGAD to stop undermining him. If he is not doing the latter, it is clear his main interest is about political self-preservation and not about Somalia. And by the way, he does not have to be right about his assumptions about IGAD’s role, all that matters is that he makes up his mind and acts decisively, whatever the outcome. In so doing, he realizes that he finds himself in a tricky situation: if he miscalculates Somalia’s political muscles vis a vis these foreign powers, or where the international communities' loyalty lies in this duel, he will be remembered as a foolish President who let Somalia down. If he wins the battle and succeeds in bringing the country back, he will go down in history as the savior of Somalia. It is his call. But it is also our call to analyze and give opinions on the consequences of the choices available to him!

 

(2) Under 1, I have discussed the scenario where we have externalized all of Somalia’s problems. But that is not the case. The political division and clan mistrust in Somalia is not made in Japan. It is of our own making and it is a clear and pervasive ailment we face. Standing up to Kenya, Ethiopia and IGAD or any other power, when we the country is deeply divided may not yield much success. In fact, it WILL not. Therefore, the starting point for the current leadership is not to confront and whine about foreign meddling, more so when the same leadership relies on foreign troops and in some cases attempts to use them to quell domestic insurrection as in the case when Mohamed Amin is flown by Amisom to Kismaayo and President Hassan requests Amisom to impose him as a governor. It simply defies logic and mathematics combined why the current leadership wants to let the excellent to be the enemy of the good. If certain regions –of course not through perfect process – set up a Jubbaland State, which accepts to come under the Federal Government of Somalia (unlike some other regions), and if you know fighting that cause is going to lead to unknown outcomes ( Alshabab resurgence, foreign-backed civil war, waning of international support, and polarization along clan lines domestically), why take the risk of opposing the process or let your god-knows-where-it-came-from “We will send Governors who will lead the formation of regional states” ONE FIT FOR ALL foolish concept derail political progress in Somalia. More so, when you failed to replace the Deputy Governor of Darkeynleey district in Mogadishu – just across villa Somalia –this week? The role of good leadership is not to whine, or prostrate before God for divine intervention, it is to assess your strengths, your weaknesses, your opportunities and risks and make decisions. In the present situation, opposing IGAD is an action. Calling for Qatari or Egyptian or El Salvadorean army to come and replace Amisom in Kismaayo is an action. Putting togather a multi-clan national contingent that goes and ‘frees’ Kismaayo from Ahmed Madoobe is an action. Is the President going to do any of this? Sitting in Mogadishu and issuing statements that do not mean anything or relying on warlords to do your job in Kismaayo at the risk of implosion which will not benefit the national cause is not an action! It is inaction! It is bad leadership!

 

(3) Acting like a normal President in an abnormal country is downright foolishness or at best delusional. Somalia’s current government neither has a “monopoly on violence” – a key requirement for any State – nor can provide basic services to its people. This is the overbearing reality. President Hassan instead thinks just because he was given a legal mandate, he can issue orders and expects all to implement and accept it. The banning of the UN flights from Hargeisa last week is an example. President Hassan can issue a statement, but that can’t help the UN. Which means, international actors will be forced to disregard his statements and to work with the real authorities. It is power play. It is the norm of international politics. This crippling inability to look at the mirror and distinguish if the inflated muscles you see on your shoulders are yours or borrowed ones is President Hassan’s major foible.

 

(4) Maybe this one isn’t a big matter. But President Hassan is both a micro-manager and extremely opinionated person. None of those qualities are good enough to lead a small 4x4 office let alone bring back a country under the earth. The art of compromise demands little ego. He is full of ego. Statesmanship requires rising above the immediate cheerleading supporters or constituencies and taking tough and unpopular decisions. Don’t expect that from him. As one 2012 President Candidate I met commented, President Hassan thinks “just by the mere election of him and his team, Somalia has moved miles. Somalia has got the magical Elixir.”

 

(5) The last point is about the difference between you and me. I don’t know Jubba nor do I claim it to be my home. Apart from sharing the associational blame I reap by virtue of lineage, it is not true I am concerned about who rules that place or who owns it. For me, I am interested in the Jubbas, the same way I am interested in Somaliland. And I proffer my opinions on the basis of the singular standpoint that Somalia must come back. If President Hassan kills Ahmed Madoobe this morning by using the Benadir donkey carts as drones or with a curse, I couldn’t care less. But I want him to show us that he has a coherent strategy to deal with the myriad of political challenges in Somalia, Kismaayo being one! Whining, cursing, fumbling, praying, faataxo, calling Bare Hiiraale (when you say the problem is Kenya on the other side of your mouth), is not a strategy! It has a name. It is called DESPERATION! And a leadership in desperation only leads a country to despair! You, on the other hand, is emotionally attached to the outcomes of the ongoing processes and have a preferred outcome. For all your anger about the marginalization or the lesser share your community got, there are many peaceful clans (I will not call them minority for there is no proof that is the case, I am talking about bajuunis, camel-lovers, bantus, D&M etc), who feel your clan is getting disproportionate share in Jubbas and particularly in Kismaayo. There are some who think your people were planted there during the revolution days. I know better and don't agree with that. But this should tell you that there are conflicting and divergent narratives and the worst a leader can do now is to try to appease all sides. He must do what works given the context.

 

Sida kale talooyinkaaga dib baan u eegi ee bal adiguna Kenya iyo waxan lagugu qufulay dib u eeg oo xal ka baxsan ka sanduuqa aad hada ku jirto ah raadi. For me, compromise is the only solution, and if that means President Hassan will have to sleep with a mad militia leader like Ahmed Madoobe temporarily, it is a good thing. If he can sleep with Barre Hiiraale and Bare can solve the Kenyan menace, it is fine too.

Wa bilaahi tawfiik, meesha wixii gaf iyo is xagxagasho ah eek a dacana ha laga raali ahaado, ileen foodleey xaflad meel ay ku dhigatay oo la isu wada heesayo ma ahee!

 

Apophis,

 

I think you can get the answer as to what Ahmed Madoobe can do to allay the fears of the FGS from my last lines to Gabbal. Compromise. But for that to happen, I believe President Hassan must accept Madoobe as a reality. As long as Madoobe is not accepted, in fairness, there is little compromise he can make. If he is accepted, he should allow the FGS to have decisions on the composition of his administration, on port revenues, FGS to take the leadership in the national army, aviation etc. Afterall, he will only end up to be a Governor even in a Federal State, for Federalism is not what Faroole is crying for. Federalism is not to have 6 President’s with equal powers. Horey ha loo socodo, marka Muqdisho hagaagto ee dhaqaale iyo wax walba ay dawlada dhexe heesho, awoodaha regional adminstrations gradually waa la soo uruurin doonaa, laakin hadda ma ha.

 

genius,

 

Good question there!

 

Nin Yaaban

 

caruurtii baa badatay, dee gaboowna wuu jiraa! that is why I can't spend more time as I used to do. 53 jir dee inay Oba is haystaan mar walbana waa laga fiican yahay. :D

[QansaxMeygaag]

@Abtigiis - where is parliament in all this? Aren't they supposed to set the stage for "federation" and put the ground rules on how the "regional states" or whatever they are called should be operationalized through legislation?

 

@Haatu , my abti - very disappointed in you that you can actually conflate a joke with "Wagalla-lot". Not funny at all, not funny.Wagalla was a tragedy so I don't see how you can could drag the name Wagalla into a "joke".

[NGONGE]

genius pauper.;952469 wrote:

 

@ngonge, your stance that ''we are all bad guys'' is not sincere enough and real. either you condone the status quo, or you are overriding an ill view you hold.

Sincere or not does not matter online, saaxib. All you have to worry about here is if the words make sense or not. A conference that ignores the pleas of the federal government and goes on to elect a president only for the federal government to hit back with a hand granade called Hirale, shows ALL sides to be BAD. Wax fahan.

 

Chimera,

 

War don't give me a full defence of your person dee. I am not too bothered about your noble positions regarding clans, uncles or countries. I only deal with the words you write and how I preceive these words. If you choose to discuss politics (which you have done there and repeated by making the Democrat/Republican analogy above), dee don't get all worked up and you're pulled up on it, saaxib.

 

p.s.

The government are doing well but the house of cards they're building will come tumbling down unless they do something about the internal problems. Wax fahan.

[Abtigiis]

Dear Qansaxmeygaag,

 

But clearly that normative discussion on what the legislative should do is irrelevant at this stage in the case of Jubbaland. One, the Jubballand process preceded the new parliament and was a work on progress. At least that is the claim of its proponents. Second, the proposed 'top-down' approach of appointing a Governor to regions who will in turn lead the process of the formation of regional states may look as a way of circumventing the bottom-up approach and I personally think it will do more harm than good. The drawback of the current format of clans establishing regional states is not perfect but I believe it is more practical than to ask the legislative (itself divided along clan lines as we can see whenever the submit motions) to take charge of. The moment the Governor you appointed for Bay and Bakool is seen to be favouring a particular clan, you will have raging battles in the same Parliament and accusations that the Federal Government or part of it is supporting this clan against that clan. The proposed top-down approach is therefore not an insurance against clan tussle; it merely exports the tussles at community level to the parliament stage. Third, even if that approach is to be used for upcoming regional states, its relevance for Jubbaland is clearly undermined by the current reality. The only way it can work for Jubbas is if it is supported by a military campaign against the pro-Jubbaland forces. If you endorse that option, let me know. My argument will then go back to what I posted above about what the government to do to stop IGAD and others seen as the funders of the project. The Jubbaland can only be derailed if the clans in that region start fighting each other. It cannot be stopped just because the President is insisting on some legalistic processes that in effect are blunt instruments.

 

Even if the top-down approach is adopted and implemented, I doubt if it will cater for the needs of different regions. I don't think one fit for all format is the right way for the various challenges in different regions.

 

As many others noticed, I may be too quick to write-off the President. I agree we should give him time -at least the four first term years - to see if his approaches bear fruit. If they do, fine. If they don't then I may bore you with "I told you so" baloney, but far more than my advertisement of self-worth is the stake of Somalia. Somalia will be in bad shape and that is the tragedy.

 

Ngonge,

 

Chimera is a genius, whether you like it or not. But his list of achievement of the government is selective and exaggerated. I deal with some of the things he ascribed for the government and the government's role is pathetic. Furthermore, all of the things he listed are the least that worry me now. The main political issues that can make or break Somalia are not in Chimera's list. I agree with you about the criticality of addressing the internal problems rather than exaggerate the international gains, which in the real sense amount to nothing and do not change the living conditions of Somalis. Giving Somalia's airspace from UNDP to government is an inconsequential and symbolic victory, whose lustre will fade in few weeks. It means little to the millions of Somalis suffering from war and hunger.

[genius pauper.]

xabad;952235 wrote:

Discuss what issues ?

clan and cantarbaqash, coz that is being discussed here and am above that. i will repeat

nothing good will ever come out of an Islamist

, if that angers you, so be it.

This is crazy, !! i mean, you can't submit a non issue comment to a discussion, and end up claiming to be above the matter of the discussion , what a lost purpose. you don't know what you are talking about! and that says a lot about your previous comment.

 

p.s. only a bozo will brag of repeating a non-sense.

[genius pauper.]

NGONGE;952481 wrote:

Sincere or not does not matter online, saaxib. All you have to worry about here is if the words make sense or not. A conference that

ignores

the pleas of the federal government and goes on to elect a president only for the federal government to

hit back

with a hand granade called Hirale, shows ALL sides to be BAD. Wax fahan.

saxiib you are putting the cart before the house, here. it is illogical to discern how you devoid yourself sincerity while online, and while at it, you reckon sense. wax fahan.

what happened is in the news, but your stance is not. wax fahan

[NGONGE]

^^ I would be lying if I claimed that I understood any of what you wrote there, pauper. What is in the news and what has my stance got to do with it?

[xiinfaniin]

NGONGE;952352 wrote:

^^ Err..nuune, could you find that thread again and see what I wrote to you there? I can't recall it now but I'm more than certain that all my objections still stand.

 

A&T, I still think you're singling Gabaal out as the "bad guy" here when, in reality, we are all bad guys. Gabaal is looking out for his people, in the same way that far off Farole is or even 22 year independent Siilaanyo.

Don't wait for Xassan Sheikh to fix things between you and Gabaal, extend him an olive branch and see where that gets you, saaxib

.

The thing is Zack on behalf of professor Abtigiis extended an appealing olive branch to Gabal. Gabal did not refuse the olive branch but he said some one other than Zack or Abtigiis should extend it. When asked who, he said that person has to be from Xamar.

 

Gabadhii Kismayo ahayd Gabal waa lagu mehiriyey, shuuhada waxaa ka mid ah reer Kismayo oo dhan oo xiinfaniin ka mid yahay , wadaadkuna waa Zack. Laakiin Gabal wuxuu ictiqaadsanyahay haddaan wadaad Xamar ka yimid Kismayo ku mehirin inay san ku xirmayn . Gooni iyo Yunus oo naf la biday waxaa yiraahdeen , wadaad Xamar ka keena

 

NGONGE, caaqilkii ciddaw bal talo keen.?

 

Professor Abtigiis , welcome back. You have been greatly missed in this fora. If it takes to have you here permanently, I may even tolerate your x rated posts about Amhara girls and whatnot

[Tallaabo]

Abtigiis;952483 wrote:

Dear Qansaxmeygaag,

 

But clearly that normative discussion on what the legislative should do is irrelevant at this stage in the case of Jubbaland. One, the Jubballand process preceded the new parliament and was a work on progress. At least that is the claim of its proponents. Second, the proposed 'top-down' approach of appointing a Governor to regions who will in turn lead the process of the formation of regional states may look as a way of circumventing the bottom-up approach and I personally think it will do more harm than good. The drawback of the current format of clans establishing regional states is not perfect but I believe it is more practical than to ask the legislative (itself divided along clan lines as we can see whenever the submit motions) to take charge of. The moment the Governor you appointed for Bay and Bakool is seen to be favouring a particular clan, you will have raging battles in the same Parliament and accusations that the Federal Government or part of it is supporting this clan against that clan. The proposed top-down approach is therefore not an insurance against clan tussle; it merely exports the tussles at community level to the parliament stage. Third, even if that approach is to be used for upcoming regional states, its relevance for Jubbaland is clearly undermined by the current reality. The only way it can work for Jubbas is if it is supported by a military campaign against the pro-Jubbaland forces. If you endorse that option, let me know. My argument will then go back to what I posted above about what the government to do to stop IGAD and others seen as the funders of the project. The Jubbaland can only be derailed if the clans in that region start fighting each other. It cannot be stopped just because the President is insisting on some legalistic processes that in effect are blunt instruments.

 

Even if the top-down approach is adopted and implemented, I doubt if it will cater for the needs of different regions. I don't think one fit for all format is the right way for the various challenges in different regions.

 

As many others noticed, I may be too quick to write-off the President. I agree we should give him time -at least the four first term years - to see if his approaches bear fruit. If they do, fine. If they don't then I may bore you with "I told you so" baloney, but far more than my advertisement of self-worth is the stake of Somalia. Somalia will be in bad shape and that is the tragedy.

 

Ngonge,

 

Chimera is a genius, whether you like it or not. But his list of achievement of the government is selective and exaggerated. I deal with some of the things he ascribed for the government and the government's role is pathetic. Furthermore, all of the things he listed are the least that worry me now. The main political issues that can make or break Somalia are not in Chimera's list. I agree with you about the criticality of addressing the internal problems rather than exaggerate the international gains, which in the real sense amount to nothing and do not change the living conditions of Somalis. Giving Somalia's airspace from UNDP to government is an inconsequential and symbolic victory, whose lustre will fade in few weeks. It means little to the millions of Somalis suffering from war and hunger

.

You are right about that. Chimera's enthusiasm is well placed but the truth is the Somali Republic of the 1980s had all that he listed and much more yet disappeared into the dustbin of history because of internal problems.

[NGONGE]

Xiin,

 

Gabaal represents a faction that is opposed to Axmed Madoobe. He (and some news sources) claim that Barre Hirale is the president of Jubbaland and that he has the power and support that allows him to rain in Madoobe's parade. You claim the opposite.

 

The one clear thing here is that there IS a dispute in that part of Somalia and, because of the nature of the dispute, it threatens to destroy whatever little gains the federal government has made in the last few months. There must be a way for all sides to reach an agreement without anyone losing face, saaxib. Or do you always need Mahiga to chair any reconciliation meetings?