Kenya trying to get more leverage in Somalia

[Mario B]

Oodweyne;951997 wrote:

It seems that I had really underestimated this Uhuru Kenyatta fellow. Since by all indication he is turning out to be as equally dangerous to hassan sheikh and his government as late Zenawi was to then Cabdiqasim's TNG in early 2000s.

 

Hence to me this government in Somalia really has difficult hand in here since by the looks of it the western powers are not willing to side openly with hassan sheikh against Mr Kenyatta.

 

And in this episode of "Western reluctance" is a picture that is akin to the reality of Congo. Since the leadership of Congo are exasperated with the western powers who are in turn incline not to support them against Paul Kagame of Rwanda given the fact that the Western powers needs the strongman of Rwanda more than they need the leadership of that perpetual fragile state of Congo.

 

All in all, this hassan sheikh really need to come up with a better diplomatic game-plan if he wants to neutralise Mr Kenyatta's moves in jubbaland since the Western powers are really incline to stay away from this fight at his behest against the Kenyan's leadership.

 

And this means he needs to take his fight at the AU level and at the UN, and in the meantime he needs to build his strength - in terms of boots on the ground - in a gradual way.

 

But all that being said as of now the "advantage" is with Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and his "plan" for Somalia and in particularly for the jubbaland since its working nicely for him and in turn Somalia's federal government and her president are losing badly in here.

Does Kenya need Nigeria when it got Xiin and co doing their bidding? On the serious note, there is a saving grace here, which is, that Nigeria was requested to come to Somalia by the then TFG and western powers but declined. it will be interesting to see Kenya's power of persuasion, on this matter. Nigeria is also tied up by it's own battle with extremists and it is the leading force in Mali helping the French wind down their mission.

 

Nigeria has sent police trainers to Mogadishu, so they are involved in a way, but i doubt they want to help Kenya's geo-political game in Somalia, they are too far from the theater to be interested.

 

Now what the SFG could do in form of PM, is to visit France and China, the two countries that are truly behind Kenya. If Somalia can cut 'the middle men' who are bidding for France and China respectively, then it will be on the path to salvation when it comes to this matter. It can also invite the French oil giant TOTAL and listen to any request it has with regards to oil blocks that are in Somalia's side.

[Mario B]

Oodweyne,

 

As you saw at the last meeting of IGAD and to some extension the London May conference, Kenya will toe the line that rest of the world are proclaiming , which is that SFG will own the process of forming regional governance with the help of front line states as wise counsel . So diplomatically, I don't fear that much, what I'm dreading is for Kenya to get it's wish and have troops on the ground and change the reality on the ground, that will be a game changer.... cos then, the SFG will have to watch on the sidelines as a polity with boots on the ground change the political landscape of Southern Somalia to the dismay of the man occupying Villa Somalia.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Haatu;951971 wrote:

That's the beauty of clan politics for you and all Somalis are guilty of it. I remember a certain lot hiding behind the British fighting against a man opposing colonialists

Haatu your clan tried to kill the Mad Mullah your poets hated him the legendary Qamaan and others, and large segments of the Pirates the garaad clan fought fiercely against him And other SL communities maakhir and the garaad clan , fought hard against the Mad Mullah. Matter infact the top leadership of the dervish movement were all from Burco. But the kacaanist government fed the people it was one clan pro mad mullah and one clan opposed. The dervish were like the current Shabaab fighters they were ruthless and had no mercy they were jihadists and they had many supporters in the first 10 years. and the last 10 years they were losing more support. And i can tell you all clans from SL supported the Mullah and all clans from SL were against him. The dervishes were no qabill movement as some love to describe them