The Impracticality of Somali Style Federalism.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

^^ Naxar the central regions galguduud mudug and hiiraan have a hard time accepting the federalism notion of 2 regions or more. We are even having the debate to divide Hiiraan into 2 regions. Also there are many tribes for instance in the Jubbaland formation when we are hearing the noise of smaller tribes saying that they are being dominated against their will. Federalism is not bad but the regions should be mixed. As for Somaliland i can assure you for them that it means little being part of Somalia means the same to them, under a federalism structure or Confederate or unitary system. Means all the same to them. Naxar i will give you an example Khatumo they want to be part of the union but they don't care whether federalism or unitary system is implemented as long as the union remains intact right or wrong? They share the same views as the rest of Somaliland only they prefer to have a union.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Lol central states are being silly, surely between southern mudhug, galgaduud, Hiiraan, middle shabelle, they can figure something out that works for them. FYI their issues don't seem be a problem with federalism per say but with configuring federal state/states. This minority situation, in my opinion is also silly. I still fail to see how federalism would negatively effect them in anyway: The mayors and governors are going to come from the majority regardless of the system, federal or centralized. As for Somaliland, your beating around the bush Xaaji. One, I do think the people of Khatumo/maakhir perhaps even Awdal prefer federalism, that is the stated goal of the federal states they have or are trying to create. what I mean by Somaliland is waqoye galbeet/togdheer and you mean to till me that people who want to secede from their country because of neglect and destructive interference from the central government would really care which way the ball rolls: Self governance or a centralized system of governance?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Naxar we yet have to see, if you closely observe the Somali peninsula it looks like the people and the political leaders are not ready for federalism. The transitional federal government was introduced in 2003, and so far we have one working federal state Puntland ,and even they are operating as an autonomous state sometimes competing with the federal government. The rest seems to be not ready. Galmudug failed to bring on board ximan iyo xeeb , and hiiraan does not want to be under galguduud, And it wants to be 2 regions these are the realities on the ground.The Jubbaland conference causes lots of controversy even between the said so called stake holders Gedo and the other clans of Jubbaland. And the government is not even supporting the conference and is calling it an illegitimate and ill influenced project. So where do we go from here Hassan has been in office and it seems that we will not see existing federal states with their institutions intact when hassans terms end in 3 years time. I think they will put it into referendum the whole constitution and then lets see if people want it or not. But so far no progress was made on federalism in Somalia.

[Homunculus]

Xaaji Xunjuf;946023 wrote:

As for your question on SL i dont think Somaliland minds a unitary or federal state for them its the same, if they cannot be independent than that is either way a loss for them.

I think you're being dishonest here with your answer, the notion the Somaliland will just roll over and agree to direct rule from Mogadishu if they fail in their quest of independence reeks of logical fallacy. XX, you're very selective when you present your arguments, you don't have to ignore facts when they are the opposite of your point of view.

[ElPunto]

Daqane;945930 wrote:

 

In retrospect, what the advocates of a constitutionally mandated federalism fail to acknowledge is the critical need for human capacity to effectively fuel the engines of effective regional and local entities as well as cultivate a sound and reliable tax base necessary for economic vitality. Otherwise, the responsibility to meet basic governmental demands throughout the nation will naturally revert back to the central authority.

 

Viable and sustainable regional states and municipal authorities cannot be erected from a vacuum with pride and emotions alone; it requires a balanced mix of complex ingredients including clan diversity, human capacity and economic vitality.

 

Moreover, contemporary clan-based regions do not guarantee legitimate ownership of land and property to other citizens living in the region, while their returning kinfolk living elsewhere in the country or abroad can instantly claim their ancestral origin and get easy access to the privileges of their membership.

 

Additionally, supporters of a unitary system of government fear that a weakened central authority characteristic of Somali style federalism may render an effectively functioning Somali union impossible. Many see clan-based federalism as a zero-sum game in which power gained by the states creates powerful clan hegemonies that exact a hefty price on the honor and overall standing of the national government. They contend that a critical review of existing regional authorities would clearly show centralized quasi-autocratic entities that are not much different in design, scope and appearance from the centralized unitary national systems they vehemently oppose.

 

A viable Somali state, they believe, can only survive in the politically volatile region of the Horn of Africa, if it is able to project the collective will of the Somali people and can coexist in equal hegemonic terms to the strong authorities in Nairobi and Addis Ababa.

 

Given the above and the inability of the proposed regions to attract necessary human capacity and economic vitality, it is impractical if not impossible to establish any sound federal or decentralized unitary system in Somalia today in the absence of the following:

This is the sum total of the opposition to federalism in Somalia and it is pretty weak.

 

1- Federal regions in all parts of the world have taxing powers and national redistributive policies to help less wealthy regions - the same would happen in Somalia. 'Tax base necessary for economic vitality' - I don't know how one guages that and decides what is vital or not. In the 20 plus years Mogadishu port/airport(the most 'vital' in the country) was a shambles - communities in the north built schools, hospitals and roads. Can anyone argue against their vitality?

 

2- The constitution requires federal regions to comprise 2 or more of the 18 provinces thus ensuring a minimum level of population and size. Any wealth disparity between regions would be addressed by redistributive policies.

 

3- Guaranteeing legitimacy and ownership of land and property is dependent on following the rule of law not what type of government structure is in place. You can have people dispossessed of their land in a highly centralized state such as Barre's. What has federalism to do with discrimination and theft? This is an objection without merit.

 

4- How does federalism render an 'effective Somali union impossible'? Are other federal nations unable to project broad national interest? If all federal regions have buy-in to the national policies - how can federalism impede effective Somali union? This argument is saying that a future federal Somalia would be the only federal country in the world unable to project its broad national interest while all the rest can and thus federalism is the cause.

 

5- A future federal Somalia representing the will of all its citizens in all its regions will be in a much stronger position that either Ethiopia and Kenya.

[Taleexi]

The problem is not what system of governance is place - it is the people, Somalis so far exhibit to be ungovernable.

[Carafaat]

ElPunto;946501 wrote:

4-

How does federalism render an 'effective Somali union impossible'?

Are other federal nations unable to project broad national interest? If all federal regions have buy-in to the national policies - how can federalism impede effective Somali union? This argument is saying that a future federal Somalia would be the only federal country in the world unable to project its broad national interest while all the rest can and thus federalism is the cause.

The case of Kismayo is a pretty good example what is to come in a federal Somalia. Division, Disunity and Decapitating any small step Somalia will try to make(even if that means with the help of Foreign muscles) . I dont think Somalia would survice another Kismayo debacle. One more case like that and we can say goodbye to any aspiration the Somali people will have.

[ElPunto]

Daqane;945931 wrote:

 

Limited number of federal regions of--say maximum four to five super regions, with clearly defined boundaries, clan-diversity, economic viability, access to sea and water resources and genuine grassroots participation among all inhabitants; and

 

Given the constitutional mandate that Somalia is a Federal Republic, even though this is by no means a fait accompli in the absence of a national referendum, and given that a return to a unitary state at this stage is unlikely even though it is much more practical and suitable for the country, I would then put forward the following compromise proposal as an alternative to clan-based federalism for all sides to consider which is the establishment of super regions within the federal mandate. The creation of super regions instead of clan-based regions will help bring back necessary societal cohesion, coexistence and collaboration in the reconstruction of a robust and stable region and state. Super regions will naturally encompass vast territories of land inhabited by diverse communities with full access to sea and water resources and are as follows:

 

South : Lower Jubba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakol;

 

Central: Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiran;

 

Short North: Galgadud, Mudug, Bari and Nugal;

 

North: Northwest, Awdal, Togdheer, Sool and Sanag.

 

Mogadishu: Federal Zone.

 

Acceptance of such a proposal requires a genuine national reconciliation effort that paves the way for the collective desire and readiness to heal past wounds and forge ahead a new social compact that is fair and just for everyone.

 

 

 

Abdinur Mohamud, Ph.D.

abdulnuur@hotmail.com

I don't understand this re-arranging of the deck chairs of the Titanic. If federalism is a poor governing choice for Somalia - why would arranging it in these particular regions work? How would this project an affective strong Somali union that the author lamented would be lost in a federal framework? If the Jubas and Gedo agree to form their own region - how does the addition of Bay and Bakool add or subtract anything to the framework? The author complains about 'clan hegemony' and 'gerrymandering' but he wants to gerrymander regions to his own desires and wishes? Would the author support a super state of Bari, Nugal, Mudug, the Jubbas and Gedo? What is the criteria for these superstates?

 

At the end of the day - there is no real argument against federalism working in Somalia. It has become fashionable of late to say - no I don't oppose ppl forming X federal states(because no one can oppose democracy these days) - but the process is flawed or not inclusive or not xxx as long as it falls short of opposing the very formation of a federal state. This will not work in the long run for the Somali government in Mogadishu. There will not be a return to a centralized state buttressed by a powerful military. Federal states will be formed along the lines of folks who desire to come together and form a state not along the lines of a dictation from Xamar or elsewhere.

[ElPunto]

Carafaat;946509 wrote:

The case of Kismayo is a pretty good example what is to come in a federal Somalia. Division, Disunity and Decapitating any small step Somalia will try to make(even if that means with the help of Foreign muscles) . I dont think Somalia would survice another

Kismayo

debacle. One more case like that and we can say goodbye to any aspiration the Somali people will have.

You haven't shown anything here - you're just making declarative statements that are congruent with your baseless opinions. Try again.

[xiinfaniin]

Naxar Nugaaleed;946016 wrote:

impractical or not, federalism is the law of the land.

And that, naxar nugaal, is waxa la rabo in buuq siyaasadeed lagu furo.

[xiinfaniin]

ElPunto;946510 wrote:

I don't understand this re-arranging of the deck chairs of the Titanic. If federalism is a poor governing choice for Somalia - why would arranging it in these particular regions work? How would this project an affective strong Somali union that the author lamented would be lost in a federal framework? If the Jubas and Gedo agree to form their own region - how does the addition of Bay and Bakool add or subtract anything to the framework? The author complains about 'clan hegemony' and 'gerrymandering' but he wants to gerrymander regions to his own desires and wishes? Would the author support a super state of Bari, Nugal, Mudug, the Jubbas and Gedo? What is the criteria for these superstates?

 

At the end of the day - there is no real argument against federalism working in Somalia. It has become fashionable of late to say - no I don't oppose ppl forming X federal states(because no one can oppose democracy these days) - but the process is flawed or not inclusive or not xxx as long as it falls short of opposing the very formation of a federal state. This will not work in the long run for the Somali government in Mogadishu. There will not be a return to a centralized state buttressed by a powerful military. Federal states will be formed along the lines of folks who desire to come together and form a state not along the lines of a dictation from Xamar or elsewhere.

El Punto has succinctly captured the essence of this writeup -- it is a poorly reasoned piece coupled with a shameless intellectual dishonesty

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Naxar Nugaaleed;946016 wrote:

impractical or not, federalism is the law of the land.

How? Goormee Soomaaliweyn afti u qaatay? It is not the law, it is a provisional law. And it won't last. Taas kala ogoow.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Wuxuu federaalku sharci noqday markii guddigii ta'siisiga ahaa ee 850 ergo ka koobna ay ku ansixiyeen Xamar caddey doorashadii barlamaanka ka hor

 

Aftida afar sano baa loo muddeeyey ee maad sugtid, maxaad u faganaysaa dastuurka oo ceerin ah waryaa ?

[Carafaat]

ElPunto,

 

The author made some pretty good arguments and you just repeated the same statements in line with the old prescription of 1998. What was a temporary solution back in 1998 with clan administration, dividing regions and peoples, a divided Mudug and a divided Galkacyo, you are describing for the rest of Somalis in 2013.

Why dont you try to come with new arguments and a new vision in line with recent developments in Mogadishu. The city has moved, it is being pacified, the green line that existed for decades has been removed and the city has a unified leadership. For sure the same can be done In Mudug and Galkacyo and in other regions. Or are you still convinced that people(clans) can't share a common local and regional government administration?

 

Think of a new prescription in line with new times and new developments!

[Taleexi]

Illeyn ummad meel daran loo wato lama daba qaban karo. It is indeed a professional but remains to be the law of the land until amended. War dhegaha fura it is not the system it is the people!