xiinfaniin Posted May 3, 2013 Baashi, Perhaps you did not recall that IGAD has been observing this Jubbaland process since its inception. IGAD Executive Secretary was there in Kismayo a week or so ago to observe delegate selection process, observing whether recently adopted regional charter is being followed in the delegate selection. In other words, #10 in the communique is NOT a new thing for IGAD. It's inclusion does not change much on the ground in Kismayo. But it changes a lot in Mogadishu. Hassan wanted to subvert the process from above after he failed to do so from within. He failed again. The mention of 'Respect to Provincial Constitution' in the IGAD communique is a victory for both Faroole and Jubba initiative leaders. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xiinfaniin Posted May 3, 2013 Illyria;945694 wrote: Xiin, A protocol related question: Why was the President is received at the airport by a minister? When did this trend start happening? I think that is so because President Hassan was not there for an official visit to Ethiopia. He was there to attend a regional summit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted May 3, 2013 Baashi, My sources in Kismayo indicated a few days ago that they were waiting for a delegation from IGAD states to conclude the administration forming process. Does point 10 have any relation to that, I do not know, but there is something being cooked, and the Somali leadership, that include Xamar, Kismayo or elsewhere, are none the wiser, or so it seems. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baashi Posted May 3, 2013 Illyria, My reading is president Hassan has scored a major goal. Think about it -- Gathering in Kismayo is under the microscope! The validity and legality of the gathering is under review by IGAD whose boys are in the line of fire. IGAD wants to get back on the saddle, charge forward and take on AS. Kismayo has become an issue for everyone to the point where IGAD observation is necessitated. Xiin, Awoowe Mze Madoobe will soon have guests at his mundul IGAD wants to understand why he didn't accommodate his superiors in Benadir. His answers will be inked on a report that will become the basis of corrective action -- a final decision if you will. Is he up to the task? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted May 3, 2013 Oodweyne, I would agree President Hasan's 5 pillar plan was supported, but, as I read it, the thorny issue of Kismayo has been taken over by IGAD. Once the confidence building mission ends, IGAD owns the process and will come upon with a list of requirements only consulting the FG as needed, but the ownership is gone. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xiinfaniin Posted May 3, 2013 Baashi;945703 wrote: Illyria, Kismayo has become an issue for everyone to the point where IGAD observation is necessitated. Baashi, I disagree your reading of #10 awoowe. IGAD has been baby sitting this process from the beginning. Kismayo is an exception to Hassan's political stabilization plan, that is how I understand this communique Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted May 3, 2013 Baashi, That is an astute observation on your part. I will ponder over that point. Baashi;945703 wrote: Illyria, My reading is president Hassan has scored a major goal. Think about it -- Gathering in Kismayo is under the microscope! The validity and legality of the gathering is under review by IGAD whose boys are in the line of fire. IGAD wants to get back on the saddle, charge forward and take on AS. Kismayo has become an issue for everyone to the point where IGAD observation is necessitated. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baashi Posted May 3, 2013 Xiin, That's fine. What's the point of going to Kismayo? Why would IGAD duplicate its fact-finding mission and double handle a task it is already privy to? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baashi Posted May 3, 2013 Illyria;945705 wrote: Oodweyne, I would agree President Hasan's 5 pillar plan was supported, but, as I read it, the thorny issue of Kismayo has been taken over by IGAD. Once the confidence building mission ends, IGAD owns the process and will come upon with a list of requirements only consulting the FG as needed, but the ownership is gone. 100% agreed. Local ownership will be gone pretty soon. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xiinfaniin Posted May 3, 2013 Baashi;945708 wrote: Xiin, That's fine. What's the point of going to Kismayo? Why would IGAD duplicate its fact-finding mission and double handle a task it is already privy to? ^^Diplomatically, it has to. The President requested a support for his plan to establish regional governments in the South. IGAD supported it with the exception of Kismayo. Why because they know what is going on in there and has been knee deep in the process of Jubbaland. Read these excerpts from UN report : 6. Meanwhile, the authorities in Somalia have started developing plans for the establishment of regional administrations in areas recovered from Al-Shabaab. President Mohamud indicated his intention to take a “bottom-up” approach, whereby local administrations would be formed first and involved in the selection of regional actors. The Government plan is to deploy local parliamentarians into their constituencies to assist with the setting up of interim, 90-day administrations that would be replaced, in due course, by locally elected bodies. 7. However, with regard to the Juba and Gedo regions, an initiative led by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has been under way to form a “Jubbaland” regional administration. Efforts were made to harmonize these approaches, including during the visit of the Executive Secretary of IGAD to Mogadishu on 16 October, where he met with President Mohamud. On 6 December, the IGAD Joint Committee on the Grand Stabilization Plan for South-Central Somalia, which now includes the Somali authorities, issued a statement in which it committed itself to ensuring effective coordination in the implementation of the IGAD stabilization plan, which includes establishing local administrations and promoting reconciliation. The Committee developed a draft memorandum of understanding that provides a framework for the implementation of the Plan; this was submitted to the Somali authorities for consideration. Meanwhile, a Government delegation travelled to Kismaayo and consulted with local players on ... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted May 3, 2013 So Baashi the question is how does this hinder the Kismayo conference? I am suspecting the intent behind IGAD's point 10 is to remove the FG from the process, and to advance the federal state formation process which benefits the Kismayo conferenc. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chimera Posted May 3, 2013 Baashi;945712 wrote: 100% agreed. Local ownership will be gone pretty soon. Back to square one, luckily the Federal government has more powerful friends than a regional bloc of poor countries, whose entire presence in Somalia is bankrolled by external sources, which are being swayed to align themselves with the Federal government. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baashi Posted May 3, 2013 Bravo y'all. This discussion was pretty civil. I hope we'll have more discussions of this calibre. See ya Monday. Time to beat the Friday commute. To be continued... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illyria Posted May 3, 2013 Oodweyne, That argument would have made sense, only if it did not discount two major factors. i. The nature of the conference, ii. The organisers of the conference - bearing in mind the organisers invited multiple times and asked the FG leadership to participate, and actually lead the process. Will develop those two points another day. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
